Over the Monster - Red Sox 2014 spring training profilesBut Can He Pitch?https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/32934/otm-fv.jpg2014-03-26T09:00:08-04:00http://www.overthemonster.com/rss/stream/52139612014-03-26T09:00:08-04:002014-03-26T09:00:08-04:00Expecting a dip in Victorino's performance
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<figcaption>Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Shane Victorino was arguably the Red Sox's best player last season, but how will he hold up in 2014?</p> <p>Who is going to start in center field? All spring training, that has been the question on everyone's minds. The bigger issue revolves around outfield depth and how to sort it all out, but at the crux of it all, it comes down to who should be starting in center field. With that question being at the center of conversation in camp comes the implication that the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> are solid in the corner outfield spots. In a sense, they are, since we know who will be starting in those spots. Some combination of <span>Daniel Nava</span> and <span>Jonny Gomes</span>, with a splash of <span>Mike Carp</span>, will take care of left field, while <span>Shane Victorino</span> will be the man in right. We know who will be slotted into those positions, sure. But do we know what we'll get out of them? Despite how well he began his Red Sox career in 2013, there are certainly reasons to worry about Victorino's production this coming season.</p>
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<strong>More</strong>: <a href="http://www.overthemonster.com/2014/2/26/5449920/red-sox-2014-spring-training-profiles" target="new">Red Sox 2014 spring training profiles</a>
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<p>At the head of all reasons to worry about the 33-year-old is, of course, his health concerns. While he was able to play in 122 games last season, and only hit the 15-day disabled list once, he was banged up for most of the year. Just look at his <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=16634">injury history on Baseball Prospectus</a>, which includes 12 day-to-day injuries over the course of the 2013 season (including my personal favorite, a "trunk" injury). Unfortunately, this is just a symptom of the way Victorino plays. He is constantly laying out in right field, and isn't afraid to run into a wall to make a grab. He's going to go for the hard slide at second base. And, of course, he'll be hit by his share of pitches. As he approaches his mid-30's, the injuries will only get more serious and more frequent. They are already rearing their ugly head in 2014, as he's played in just eight spring training games, getting 25 plate appearances, and is in danger of starting the season on the disabled list.</p>
<p>Assuming Victorino can stay on the field, there are still reasons to worry about a drop-off in his production. Offensively, his .294/.351/.451/119 wRC+ batting line was boosted by a .321 batting average on balls in play, a career-high, and his first BABIP at or above .300 since 2009. It would be unfair to expect him to have as much fortune on balls in play this season, even if it still hovers around .300. That BABIP was really a big help to him, as his strikeout and walk numbers were actually worse than they've ever been, with both his walk-rate and strikeout-rates representing career worsts. It's just as reasonable to expect those to approach his career-norms just like his BABIP, but the net result is still worse than his 2013 offensive production.</p>
<p><img src="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/30678609/479280099.0.jpg"><font size="1"><em>Photo Credit: Stacy Revere</em></font></p>
<p>Of course, Victorino's offensive strategy may be completely different this year, as there is a real possibility that he will abandon switch-hitting. Given his splits, this has been met with little to no scorn from fans. Last season, he posted just a 90 wRC+ when he hit left-handed, while that number is at 93 for his career. Supporters of this move would point to his 138 career wRC+ against right-handed pitching as a right-handed batter. However, that comes in just 142 plate appearances, hardly a sample worth building expectations over. A couple years ago <a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/7/12/3150099/switch-hitters-sometimes">James Gentile found</a> that players who chose to make this switch were few and far between, and results were far from a guarantee, at least right away. There is definitely reason to believe that Victorino hitting right-handed on a full-time basis would result in a positive change, but it's not at all a sure thing.</p>
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<p>There is also the matter of his defense, an area in which he provided a ridiculous amount of value last season. By pretty much all defensive metrics, Victorino was a superstar with the glove in 2013. These numbers obviously have their flaws in smaller samples, but when they all say similar things, it makes sense to put faith in the numbers. Even if you don't, all you had to do was watch the Red Sox on a semi-regular basis to realize how valuable he was in Fenway's massive right field. However, I worry about him repeating that defensive performance. Intuitively, we get the sense that a player's defensive contributions are consistent year-to-year. If a guy is good with the glove, why would that change in different seasons? With a little more thought, though, it becomes clear that there's no reason someone like Victorino can't have a career-year defensively just like he could offensively. It doesn't mean that he won't be a plus defender in 2014, it just means there's a good chance he'll take a step back from the elite level he was at a year ago.</p>
<p>This isn't to say the Red Sox should be looking for a new right fielder or anything like that. I still fully expect Victorino to be above-average offensively, defensively and on the base paths. It's just that he is unlikely to be a five or six-win player again in 2014. There is an argument to be made that he was Boston's most valuable player last season. All of the evidence points towards him falling off of that pace this year, though he should remain a three-to-four win player.</p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2014/3/26/5548022/shane-victorinos-red-sox-2014Matt_Collins2014-03-24T14:32:25-04:002014-03-24T14:32:25-04:00Projecting Papi's new contract
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<p>David Ortiz could be in Boston for the next four years, but what will that time look like?</p> <p>The <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Red Sox</a> and David Ortiz finally agreed to an extension, and it could be the final deal of Ortiz's career. He was already under contract for 2014, and this pact added a guaranteed 2015, with options for 2016 and 2017, when Ortiz will be 40 and 41 years old. Chances are good that he will either complete these four seasons and retire, or will finish his career during the extension either by choice or because the game finally got away from him.</p>
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<strong>More</strong>: <a href="http://www.overthemonster.com/2014/3/23/5540226/red-sox-extend-david-ortiz-for-2015" target="new">Red Sox extend David Ortiz through 2015, add club options </a>
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<p>That last part is basically unpredictable at this point: you can say you expect Ortiz to decline, and it could happen, but you won't look prescient. It's not exactly cracking a code to suggest players age, their bodies slow down, they get worse at their sport of choice, and then they retire. Even David Ortiz isn't immune from this. Ortiz has been so good for so long that the question isn't whether he'll slow, but when?</p>
<p>Most projection systems are no real help to us in terms of the future. Steamer and ZiPS only project the upcoming season, so we can just see that they aren't expecting him to decline in 2014, when they forecast lines of .284/.374/.506 and .296/.386/.552, respectively. ZiPS does have Ortiz playing in just 110 games amassing 472 plate appearances, though, that might have a lot to do with Ortiz's 90 games from 2012, the result of his season-ending Achilles injury, more than the fact he's 38. Regardless, they both still project him to be excellent in the short-term future, and it's difficult to disagree, given he just batted .309/.395/.564 and essentially was the Red Sox' offense in <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/world-series" class="sbn-auto-link">the World Series</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/2120563/20131028_jla_sr6_073.0.jpg"><img alt="20131028_jla_sr6_073" class="photo" src="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/2120563/20131028_jla_sr6_073.0.jpg"></a><font size="1"><em>Photo credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports</em></font></p>
<p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1499">Baseball Prospectus' forecasting system, PECOTA</a>, digs a little deeper, as it has both a long-term forecast and the percentile projections for 2014. PECOTA is the most pessimistic of the three systems for 2014, but still sees Ortiz putting up a high-quality campaign of .269/.359/.483 -- the most significant difference between that and the Steamer forecast is 16 points of batting average. We can also see high- and low-end projections for Ortiz, and these are where we can learn a bit more about what PECOTA thinks Ortiz's chances are to remain productive in 2014 outside of just that baseline forecast:</p>
<table frame="VOID" cellspacing="0" cols="7" rules="NONE" border="0">
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<col width="47">
<col width="47">
<col width="47">
<col width="47">
<col width="47">
<col width="47">
<col width="52">
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<tbody>
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<td width="47" height="19" align="CENTER"><b><font face="Times New Roman">PCT</font></b></td>
<td width="47" align="CENTER"><b><font face="Times New Roman">PA</font></b></td>
<td width="47" align="CENTER"><b><font face="Times New Roman">AVG</font></b></td>
<td width="47" align="CENTER"><b><font face="Times New Roman">OBP</font></b></td>
<td width="47" align="CENTER"><b><font face="Times New Roman">SLG</font></b></td>
<td width="47" align="CENTER"><b><font face="Times New Roman">TAv</font></b></td>
<td width="52" align="CENTER"><b><font face="Times New Roman">WARP</font></b></td>
</tr>
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<td height="19" align="CENTER" sdval="90" sdnum="1033;"><font face="Times New Roman">90</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="662" sdnum="1033;"><font face="Times New Roman">662</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.299" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.299</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.393" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.393</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.537" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.537</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.327" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.327</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="5.3" sdnum="1033;0;0.0"><font face="Times New Roman">5.3</font></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="19" align="CENTER" sdval="80" sdnum="1033;"><font face="Times New Roman">80</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="646" sdnum="1033;"><font face="Times New Roman">646</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.288" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.288</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.381" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.381</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.518" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.518</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.317" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.317</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="4.5" sdnum="1033;0;0.0"><font face="Times New Roman">4.5</font></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="19" align="CENTER" sdval="70" sdnum="1033;"><font face="Times New Roman">70</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="635" sdnum="1033;"><font face="Times New Roman">635</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.281" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.281</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.373" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.373</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.504" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.504</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.309" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.309</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="3.9" sdnum="1033;0;0.0"><font face="Times New Roman">3.9</font></td>
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<td height="19" align="CENTER" sdval="60" sdnum="1033;"><font face="Times New Roman">60</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="625" sdnum="1033;"><font face="Times New Roman">625</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.274" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.274</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.365" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.365</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.492" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.492</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.303" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.303</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="3.5" sdnum="1033;0;0.0"><font face="Times New Roman">3.5</font></td>
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<td height="19" align="CENTER" sdval="50" sdnum="1033;"><font face="Times New Roman">50</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="616" sdnum="1033;"><font face="Times New Roman">616</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.268" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.268</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.358" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.358</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.482" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.482</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.297" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.297</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="3" sdnum="1033;0;0.0"><font face="Times New Roman">3.0</font></td>
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<tr>
<td height="19" align="CENTER" sdval="40" sdnum="1033;"><font face="Times New Roman">40</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="607" sdnum="1033;"><font face="Times New Roman">607</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.262" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.262</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.351" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.351</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.471" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.471</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.291" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.291</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="2.6" sdnum="1033;0;0.0"><font face="Times New Roman">2.6</font></td>
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<tr>
<td height="19" align="CENTER" sdval="30" sdnum="1033;"><font face="Times New Roman">30</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="597" sdnum="1033;"><font face="Times New Roman">597</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.256" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.256</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.344" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.344</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.459" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.459</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.285" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.285</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="2.2" sdnum="1033;0;0.0"><font face="Times New Roman">2.2</font></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="19" align="CENTER" sdval="20" sdnum="1033;"><font face="Times New Roman">20</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="586" sdnum="1033;"><font face="Times New Roman">586</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.248" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.248</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.335" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.335</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.446" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.446</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.278" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.278</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="1.7" sdnum="1033;0;0.0"><font face="Times New Roman">1.7</font></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="19" align="CENTER" sdval="10" sdnum="1033;"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="570" sdnum="1033;"><font face="Times New Roman">570</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.238" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.238</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.323" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.323</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.428" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.428</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="0.268" sdnum="1033;0;#.000"><font face="Times New Roman">.268</font></td>
<td align="CENTER" sdval="1.1" sdnum="1033;0;0.0"><font face="Times New Roman">1.1</font></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>The 90th percentile forecast is the most optimistic, while the 10th percentile is the least. We can see that at the 90th percentile, PECOTA sees what is basically a repeat of Ortiz's 2013, where he had a .332 True Average (TAv). A five-win season from a 38-year-old designated hitter might seem unheard of, but we did just see one from a 37-year-old DH. There are scenarios where he's not quite <i>that</i> great, but is still a high-quality bat capable of four-to-five wins.</p>
<p>The lowest ranges might seem depressing, but consider this: PECOTA thinks the worst-case scenario for a healthy David Ortiz in 2014 is that he is an above-average hitter whose most significant fault is that he doesn't play the field. The worst-case scenario for David Ortiz is that he is simply as good as the rest of the designated hitters in the game: they produced a .267 TAv in 2013.</p>
<p>So, the three systems seem to agree that <span>David Ortiz's</span> chances of kicking ass in 2014 remain as high as they've ever been. The 2014 season isn't the one we're most concerned about, however: that was already happening regardless of whether he signed a new extension. It's 2015 and beyond that we have a real interest in, and PECOTA is nowhere near as optimistic in that regard.</p>
<p>In 2015, PECOTA forecasts Ortiz for 449 plate appearances -- enough to secure his vesting option for 2016 -- and a line of .245/.333/.428. That's a .274 TAv, better than your league-average designated hitter, but it's also similar to Ortiz's 20th percentile forecast for 2014. PECOTA is only willing to go out on so much of a limb for a 39-year-old slugger. Things are worse in 2016, where, during what would be Ortiz's vesting option season, he's slated to bat .240/.314/.404, worth less than a win, and worse than what the current average DH produces at the plate. PECOTA also sees a significant downturn in playing time, with 321 plate appearances.</p>
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<p>If the Red Sox picked up Ortiz's final option for his age-41 season in 2017, PECOTA warns of a season in which Ortiz slugs below .400 and produces a line that's below the overall league-average, not just the DH one. It's still better than quite a few younger players could expect to do, but it's not anything like the Ortiz we know. That kind of season, at that age, might be the motivation Ortiz needs to call it a career.</p>
<p>It's worth remembering a few things about these long-term forecasts. If Ortiz is closer to his upper-level forecasts in 2014, his future projections would reflect that: these long-term looks are based on the idea Ortiz sticks to his baseline projection. Each subsequent seasons' projection becomes a little less (or more) depressing depending on how a player fills in the blanks in between the present and when those forecasts begin.</p>
<p>In addition, PECOTA builds its forecasts, at least in part, by using comparable players at the same age. Quick: name a few historical comps for 38-year-old David Ortiz, who is coming off of theĀ <a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/season_finder.cgi?type=b#gotresults&as=result_batter&offset=0&sum=0&min_year_season=1901&max_year_season=2013&min_season=1&max_season=-1&min_age=37&max_age=37&is_rookie=&lg_ID=lgAny&lgAL_team=tmAny&lgNL_team=tmAny&lgFL_team=tmAny&lgAA_team=tmAny&lgPL_team=tmAny&lgUA_team=tmAny&lgNA_team=tmAny&isActive=either&isHOF=either&isAllstar=either&bats=any&throws=any&exactness=anypos&pos_1=1&pos_2=1&pos_3=1&pos_4=1&pos_5=1&pos_6=1&pos_7=1&pos_8=1&pos_9=1&pos_10=1&pos_11=1&games_min_max=min&games_prop=50&games_tot=&qualifiersSeason=battingtitle&minpasValS=502&mingamesValS=100&qualifiersCareer=nomin&minpasValC=3000&mingamesValC=1000&orderby=onbase_plus_slugging_plus&c1gtlt=eq&c1val=0&c2gtlt=eq&c2val=0&c3gtlt=eq&c3val=0&c4gtlt=eq&c4val=0&c5gtlt=eq&c5val=1.0&location=pob&locationMatch=is&pob=&pod=&pcanada=&pusa=&saved_query=&ajax=1&submitter=1">sixth-best season <i>ever</i> for a 37-year-old per OPS+</a>. PECOTA's comparables list includes the likes of the still-fantastic Frank Robinson, <span>Edgar Martinez</span>, and <span>Frank Thomas</span>, the still-great <span>Rafael Palmeiro</span> and Stan Musial, players finally giving in to their ages in <span>Jason Giambi</span> and Harmon Killebrew, and then players who suddenly lost it at 38 like Willie McCovey, <span>Carlos Delgado</span>, and Jeff Bagwell. It's no wonder PECOTA sees such a sudden drop in performance for Ortiz coming in the next few years: very few even make it to the point he's at, never mind continue beyond it successfully.</p>
<p>That's precisely why the Red Sox wouldn't lock him up for very long in the past, and why everything past 2015 is now an option of some sort. It's likely Ortiz's career will end when both he and his abilities agree it's time to go, but what happens in between this moment and then is unknown. He could succumb to injury and age like Delgado and Bagwell, soldier on productively but no longer great, or he could add himself to even shorter comparable lists in the future by continuing to be David Ortiz. All we do know is that whichever future it ends up being will come in a Red Sox uniform, and that's good enough for Ortiz, the Sox, and their fans.</p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2014/3/24/5542790/david-ortiz-extension-projecting-the-red-sox-dhs-new-contractMarc Normandin2014-03-14T09:00:21-04:002014-03-14T09:00:21-04:00Can Lackey repeat last year's success?
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<figcaption>David Manning-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>John Lackey was one of the great stories of 2013, but will he be able to replicate that performance this season?</p> <p>Maybe I'm just not paying enough attention, but it seems like there has been hardly any conversation around <span>John Lackey</span> this spring. That's pretty surprising, given how big of a story his comeback season last year was. We all know the tale by now, when he went from having one of the worst seasons by a pitcher in recent memory, marred by controversy, then missing an entire season due to injury, only to come back and pitch like a top-of-the-rotation pitcher.</p>
<div class="read-more">
<strong>More</strong>: <a target="new" href="http://www.overthemonster.com/2014/3/13/5504028/red-sox-cut-henry-owens-garin-cecchini-matt-barnes">Red Sox cut Henry Owens, Garin Cecchini, 10 others from spring training roster</a>
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<p>One would think that would at least be somewhat in the conversation during camp. Instead, he's the classic middle man in the rotation. He's lacking the upside and excitement of <span>Jon Lester</span> and <span>Clay Buchholz</span>, and he doesn't have the same worrisome question marks as <span>Felix Doubront</span> and Jake Peavy. There's a legitmate question of how likely a repeat performance is, though. Were his struggles in 2011 due to the injury that caused him to miss 2012? Is he now completely over the injuries, and ready to be a well above-average pitcher again in 2014?</p>
<p>The first key for Lackey to stay a productive pitcher is to continue limiting walks. Clearly, that's a key for a lot of pitchers, but that was arguably the number one reason for his venture back to relevance in 2013. Though he's never been one to lose complete control - even in his dark times, this isn't his issue - he reached a new level of control last season. He set career bests with just under two walks per nine innings, and in walking just five percent of the batters he faced. Unfortunately, it's unclear whether or not he'll be able to replicate that performance this season, at least to that extent. Looking at his pitch f/x numbers, it's a little discouraging that he didn't hit the zone any more than he usually did, meaning the reduction in free passes may have been fluky. However, Lackey did throw his first pitch for a strike much more often. At 64.3 percent, that first pitch strike rate was the highest he'd posted since 2008, and three points higher than he posted in that terrible 2011. All the projection systems predictably see regression in this are for him this season, but if he can keep pounding the strike zone to start off at bats, he should be able to keep the walks down near those levels</p>
<p><img src="http://cdn1.sbnation.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/30025597/20131030_ajl_aa6_105.0.jpg"></p>
<p><font size="1"><i>Photo Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports</i></font></p>
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<p>As I said above, the reason for Lackey's abysmal 2011 wasn't his control, but rather his command. In other words, he had no problems throwing strikes, he just wasn't locating them well, and hitters were crushing pitches left right in the middle of the zone. While it's easy to look at a wide gap between ERA and FIP and point to luck, that wasn't the case with Lackey's 6.41 to 4.71 gap from ERA to FIP three years ago. It was easy to tell by watching him that batters were just hitting everything hard off him. He completely earned his opponents' .339 batting average on balls in play and 22 percent line drive rate. Last year, he avoided that, getting that BABIP back down to .281 and the line drive rate down to 18 percent. It's not hard to see how that happened either. Compare Lackey's zone chart <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_profile.php?s_type=2&gFilt=&pFilt=FA%7CSI%7CFC%7CCU%7CSL%7CCS%7CKN%7CCH%7CFS%7CSB&time=month&player=407793&startDate=01/01/2011&endDate=01/01/2012&minmax=ci&var=count&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1">from 2011</a> to the one <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_profile.php?s_type=2&gFilt=&pFilt=FA%7CSI%7CFC%7CCU%7CSL%7CCS%7CKN%7CCH%7CFS%7CSB&time=month&player=407793&startDate=01/01/2013&endDate=01/01/2014&minmax=ci&var=count&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1">from this past season</a>. There's an awful lot of red in the middle and upper parts in the first chart, while the second one sees the ball kept down and on the edges of the plate. If Lackey wants to stay effective, it is imperative that he stays away from the middle of the zone in 2014.</p>
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<p>Lastly, his stuff saw a rise in 2013 that he'll need to keep with him this season. While his velocity stayed mostly constant from 2011 to 2013 (<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/1507_P_FA_20130924.png">see here</a>), he used it much more effectively last year. For one thing, he used his sinker much more often last season, which was a major reason he saw his ground ball rate rise from 40.5 percent to 47 percent. Aside from that, Lackey avoided his more offspeed stuff, specifically his changeup and curveball, while upping his usage of the sinker, four-seamer and slider. This led to his highest strikeout rate and whiff rate since 2005. The now-35-year-old showed that velocity isn't the only connection to strikeouts. He mixed up his repertoire, and the results were great. As he gets older, he's only going to see the velocity come down, but if he can keep making these kinds of adjustments to keep his strikeouts up, he'll be just fine.</p>
<p>So, can John Lackey repeat his 2013 season? Honestly, the answer is probably no. He had the perfect storm of great pitching and a little bit of luck last year. His walks will likely rise a tiny bit, he'll lose a little bit of stuff, and a few more hits will fall in. With that being said, he can and should still be an entirely useful pitcher. He made big strides last season, and if he can keep it up, he should be an above-average number three pitcher, and a big reason for another possible playoff run. As long as he continues to limit his walks, and sticks with his adjustments with his pitching style, Lackey's success story will continue in 2014, even if it's not <i>quite </i>as good as 2013.</p>
<p><i>*Numbers and Charts were from Fangraphs and Brooks Baseball</i></p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2014/3/14/5507216/john-lackey-2014-red-soxMatt_Collins2014-03-11T09:00:21-04:002014-03-11T09:00:21-04:00Junichi Tazawa and hard contact
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<figcaption>Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Junichi Tazawa has shown himself to be a very good reliever, but there's one thing holding him back from greatness.</p> <p>Think back to the end of last year's regular season, when there was plenty of concern over the back of the bullpen. Yeah, the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> could always rely on <span>Koji Uehara</span>, but <span>Craig Breslow</span> hadn't solidified his consistencies in everyone's minds, and there was a "<span>Junichi Tazawa</span>" problem the team had to worry about. While that issue was almost certainly overblown, there are real concerns surrounding Tazawa coming into 2014, and his role this year will be determined by how he deals with it.</p>
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<strong>More</strong>: <a target="new" href="http://www.overthemonster.com/2014/3/10/5490908/red-sox-rotation-opening-day-pitcher">John Farrell reveals plans for Red Sox rotation </a>
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<p>While he's been an outstanding reliever since shifting to the role full-time, he has struggled in allowing hard contact, a problem that reared its ugly head more than a few times in the second half of last season. If he's able to control this issue, he's more than capable of becoming the second man on the depth chart behind Koji. If not, he could theoretically fall all the way down as far as fifth, behind Breslow, <span>Edward Mujica</span> and Andrew Miller. It's one of the bigger concerns facing any Red Sox pitcher this season.</p>
<p>While Tazawa will always be great at inducing strikeouts and limiting walks, he was far too prone to power at some points last season. Over the year, he allowed opposing batters to hit .265/.294/.447. The last component of the slash line is our concern, as that .182 Isolated Power basically means batters were mashing like <span>Josh Hamilton</span> and <span>Dan Uggla</span> off the right hander last season. That kind of hard contact isn't exactly new for Tazawa, either, as he's given up hits at a higher-than-average rate for his entire career. The .321 batting average on balls in play he allowed last yearwasn't totally out of the ordinary, as that rate is at an alarming .331 mark for his career. The reason for this? Line drives. While batted ball data isn't perfect, it jives with what our eyes tell us in this case. Per Fangraphs, 27 percent of the balls in play Tazawa allowed were counted as line drives, a rate six points higher than the league-average. In fact, only five pitchers with at least 40 innings allowed line drives more often last season, and only six with at least 80 innings over the past two seasons had a higher LD%. It's an alarming trend that Tazawa must work on heading into next season.</p>
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<p>As I mentioned above, the 27-year-old is where he is because of his K/BB abilities. While he's not exactly at Koji-ian levels, he's still walked less than five percent of the batters he has faced in each of the last two seasons while striking out at least a quarter of them. It's an impressive feat that would likely make him a much more valuable and well-known if it weren't for his consistent hard contact problems. Look at his career season in 2012, when he sat at a .300 BABIP and a 24 percent line drive-rate, and finished with an ERA of 1.43 paired with a 1.82 FIP. Unfortunately, his ability to stay in the zone is also what hurts him.</p>
<p>At this point, batters know what to expect when they see Tazawa. He's going to throw them a first-pitch strike (he's always done so at a rate well above league-average), and he's going to stay in the zone. He doesn't want to give up free passes. Major league batters are going to adjust to these kind of tendencies, and they've done so after his amazing 2012.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_profile.php?s_type=2&gFilt=&pFilt=FA%7CSI%7CFC%7CCU%7CSL%7CCS%7CKN%7CCH%7CFS%7CSB&time=month&player=547749&startDate=01/01/2013&endDate=01/01/2014&minmax=ci&var=count&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1"></p>
<p><i>Chart courtesy of </i><a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/">Brooks Baseball</a></p>
<p>The chart above shows exactly where Tazwa threw his pitches in 2013, and it's pretty simple to see the problem there. Way too many of his pitches found themselves right in the middle of the zone, where even the worst hitters have a good chance of putting the barrel on the ball. Ideally, he could find himself on those outer portions of the strike zone. Doing that might result in a few more walks over the course of a season, but I'm pretty confident in saying the team would sacrifice a few free passes in exchange for less extra base hits.</p>
<p>Junichi Tazawa has shown an elite ability with the strike zone, forming an amazing K/BB trifecta with Uehara and Mujica. However, he's also had some major problems with hard contact over the past few years, and it's something that came up at some bad times in 2013. If he wants to be one of the high-leverage relievers in Boston this year, it's something he'll have to get under control. It's very possible an adjustment would result in slightly higher walk rate, but that's a cost that would definitely be worth it. For Tazawa, the difference between figuring this problem and having it stick around could mean the difference between being the eighth inning man and being one of the handful of sixth inning men.</p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2014/3/11/5494734/junichi-tazawa-red-sox-spring-training-2014Matt_Collins2014-03-10T11:41:32-04:002014-03-10T11:41:32-04:00What should Grady Sizemore's Red Sox role be?
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<p>If he's going to be around, Sizemore is going to need a role. Just what should he spend his 2014 doing, though?</p> <p>It's March 10, and <span>Grady Sizemore's</span> knees are still working. Knock on wood, cross your fingers, and say a prayer to Aceves to keep it that way, but at this point that's the case. If he stays healthy -- and we all know about the colossal size of said if -- he's going to play. How much and in what role are things that are yet to be determined this spring, but the choices seem clear: Sizemore can either back up the entire outfield and provide unexpected depth, or he can be the team's starting center fielder. Finding out which role works best for both Sizemore and the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> is the goal.</p>
<div class="read-more">
<strong>More</strong>: <a href="http://www.overthemonster.com/2014/3/6/5476392/jonathan-herrera-brock-holt-position-battle" target="new">The Red Sox Epic Battle for utility man </a>
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<p>Before we dive in to that, let's remember just who Sizemore is. Sizemore joined the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.letsgotribe.com/">Indians</a> in the majors back in 2004, at the age of 21, and more than held his own by batting .246/.333/.406 over 43 games. He would break out in his full-season debut a year later, kicking off a four-year stretch where the center fielder would bat .281/.372/.496 for an OPS+ of 128, the best in the majors among center fielders with at least 2,000 plate appearances in that span: better than <span>Carlos Beltran</span>, better than <span>Curtis Granderson</span>, better than everyone. Sizemore also averaged 160 games and 738 plate appearances per season over this stretch, and was considered an above-average defender in center just to top it all off.</p>
<p>Sizemore was the real deal out there, but then came the injuries. The then-26-year-old played in just 106 contests in 2009 thanks to elbow inflammation that resulted in season-ending surgery in September. He had played through the issue for nearly the entire season, with his initial stint on the disabled list coming at the end of May, and it showed in his numbers, as he dropped to a then-career low OPS+ of 110 while batting just .248. In May of 2010, the knee problems began, with Sizemore's season ending in May thanks to microfracture surgery on his left knee. A year later, he would suffer a contusion on his right knee, and by season's end required non-microsfracture surgery on that one as well. He then dealt with back surgery in 2012, had a second surgery on his right knee -- this one of the microfracture variety -- and spent all of 2013 recovering from these procedures.</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_assets/2098065/117880060.0.jpg"><img src="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/2098065/117880060.0.jpg" class="photo" alt="117880060"></a><font size="1"><em>Photo credit: Joe Robbins</em></font></p>
<p>In the limited time Sizemore played during this stretch, he was not very good, though, that's not shocking: returning from one microfracture surgery effectively (in the short term) is difficult enough, but Sizemore's knee problems went beyond just that initial injury. You can essentially throw out that performance for our purposes, since the only thing we're wondering is what Sizemore's job is <i>if he's healthy: </i>he was not healthy from 2009 through 2012 for myriad reasons. If he's not healthy now, and therefore has no shot at being productive, then he's not going to have either of the proposed roles, anyway.</p>
<p>That's not the same as saying Sizemore, if feeling right, is going to be the all-star player he once was. He's now 31 years old, and isn't just removed from his peak years, but hasn't had a meaningful slate of games to play since 2009. His skills have likely deteriorated with a combination of aging and time away from the game, but given what he was when his knees worked, Sizemore likely still has plenty to offer to make him more than a bench piece for the team willing to take that risk. Should Boston be the willing team?</p>
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<h2>The value of Mike Carp</h2>
<img src="http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_assets/2098083/180350536.0_medium.jpg"><span>Carp played in 86 games in 2013, batting .296/.362/.523 with 29 extra-base hits while spending time at four positions. His presence gives the Sox depth at multiple positions, as well as a powerful pinch-hit option against righties.</span>
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<p>If Sizemore is the backup outfielder, it significantly improves the bench options on defense. As of now, <span>Jonny Gomes</span>, who is around for his bat and winning personality, is the top defensive outfielder on the bench, since the next-in-line is first baseman/designated hitter/left fielder <span>Mike Carp</span>. It would also keep <span>Shane Victorino</span>, should there be an injury to the starter in this scenario, Jackie Bradley Jr., or, at the least, would place Sizemore in right instead of having <span>Daniel Nava</span> slide over, helping keep the Sox from facing a crippling downturn in outfield defense due to injury.</p>
<p>The issue is that there are only 25 roster spots to go around. If Sizemore is the fourth outfielder, then Gomes becomes the fifth since he's part of a platoon in left. With five starters, seven relievers, the starting nine, a backup catcher, and a backup infielder added to Sizemore and Gomes, you have already used up your 25: that leaves Mike Carp out in the cold. Carp is out of options, and would likely be traded, so it's not as if Boston would simply lose him. However, it would cut into their first base depth, leaving Nava as the likely replacement for <span>Mike Napoli</span> should something go awry.</p>
<p>That's not the end of the world by any means, but depth is important to navigating a 162-game season, and having Sizemore on the bench would limit said depth. Having him start is a different story, though.</p>
<p>In that scenario, Bradley begins 2014 back at Triple-A Pawtucket, leaving Gomes in his role as fourth outfielder, and Carp around for his triple-threat back-of-the-bench duties where he's another option in left, the backup first baseman, and the primary pinch-hitter against right-handed pitchers. Bradley could be used in the majors right now most likely, but if you've got Grady Sizemore around and he's both healthy and productive, there's no need for Bradley in the majors just yet. And, given Sizemore is no guarantee to be healthy all season anyway, it's more likely than not that Bradley gets his chance to shine as the starting center fielder at some point in 2014, anyway. The key is that the Red Sox don't compromise their depth in any way by waiting for it to happen organically instead of forcing the situation on Opening Day.</p>
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<p>Outfield depth is important, too, as there is little Pawtucket has to offer in the outfield this year. <span>Bryce Brentz</span> might be of use, but after a 2013 where he batted .262/.312/.475 for Pawtucket, he might be a platoon bat akin to Gomes, except without the patience. <span>Alex Hassan</span> is another intriguing piece, and like Brentz is on the 40-man, but as of 2013 he was still figuring out Triple-A pitching, and is more dream project than dream prospect. These are possibilities, not answers.</p>
<p>Of course, we're also talking about who will be around in a dire situation in which Boston's big-league depth in the outfield has been wiped out: you could do a lot worse than Hassan and Brentz behind the Break In Case of Emergency glass. It's something to consider, though, when weighing the best placement of Sizemore on the 2014 Red Sox.</p>
<p>Similarly, if Sizemore manages to both be healthy through the year and recapture just enough of the old him at the plate, the Red Sox might be able to slap a qualifying offer on him, and either gain a draft pick from his departure or make negotiations to retain him that much easier. That's some serious dreaming, and probably not even worth considering at this stage -- there's a whole lot of 2014 ahead of both Sizemore and the Sox -- but it's there for those who want to think long on it.</p>
<p>Between the improved depth with Sizemore starting, the chance for him to have a Sizemorian campaign (or something resembling one) if he's healthy, and the ever-so-slight potential for an extra draft pick or negotiations slanted in Boston's favor next winter, giving Grady Sizemore the center field job until he loses it through performance or injury seems to make the most sense for the Red Sox. They quite literally have nothing to lose by going that route, but as you can see, there's a whole lot that could work in their favor down that road.</p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2014/3/10/5490340/grady-sizemore-red-sox-jackie-bradley-jr-spring-trainingMarc Normandin2014-03-07T11:45:40-05:002014-03-07T11:45:40-05:00Will Jake Peavy stay healthy in 2014?
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<figcaption>Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The question with Peavy is always the same: will he pitch long enough to matter for the Red Sox?</p> <p><span>Jake Peavy</span> has had a productive career, but he hasn't consistently stayed on the mound since his early days with the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.gaslampball.com/">Padres</a>. From 2003 through 2008, Peavy averaged 30 starts and 194 innings per season while also putting up the best numbers of his career. Since then, though, he's dealt with constant injuries, and it's kept him from fully living up to the value of the contracts he's signed.</p>
<div class="read-more">
<strong>More</strong>: <a href="http://www.overthemonster.com/2014/3/7/5481442/red-sox-injury-update-victorino-peavy-pierzynski" target="new">Red Sox injury update: Victorino, Peavy, Pierzynski </a>
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<p>The <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> have Peavy in the last year of his current deal, and possibly for the last season of his career, as Peavy himself has hinted might be a possibility. Part of the reason he might be willing to step away is that he's won a <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/world-series">World Series</a> after 12 years in the game, but also because he's spent so much time injured and working back from said injuries, rather than actually playing, over the course of the last five years.</p>
<p>In 2009, Peavy missed 91 games thanks to straining his ankle while running the bases. In 2010, he detached his latissimus dorsi, and underwent shoulder surgery, a procedure that cost him 80 games that year and another 30 in 2011. He also dealt with a groin strain that put him on the 15-day DL that summer. In 2012, Peavy avoided the disabled list, but would fracture his rib cage the following year while still with the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.southsidesox.com/">White Sox</a>, costing him 36 games and the chance to make 30 starts in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2006-2007 while with San Diego. Oddly, no one knows <i>how</i> Peavy fractured his rib, only that he began to pitch poorly, and an MRI discovered the break, resulting in the missed time.</p>
<p>Not all of these problems are due to being a pitcher: the rib fracture and ankle strain were more fluke injury than anything. It's probably fair to say that Peavy has a penchant for getting hurt, though, as he also had a history of elbow and shoulder problems even when he was generally healthy and making his turns in the rotation. Now 33, it's unlikely he's going to be any less susceptible to injury than he's been in the past as well.</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/2093861/20131020_kkt_su8_941.0.jpg"><img alt="20131020_kkt_su8_941" class="photo" src="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/2093861/20131020_kkt_su8_941.0.jpg"></a><font size="1"><em>Photo credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports</em></font></p>
<p>It's easy to be pessimistic about his chances for sticking through the whole season, given he's made over 20 starts in a season just twice five years. There are a few things Red Sox fans can console themselves with while they hold their breath to see if Peavy makes it through 2014, however. As said, a few of those injuries were of the freak/fluke variety, and his shoulder and elbow have been healthier the past two seasons than they have been in years. In addition, Boston is loaded with pitching depth, should Peavy not be quite so lucky the next timeĀ <a href="http://www.overthemonster.com/2014/3/3/5465774/jake-peavys-fishing-accident-latest-in-weird-spring-finger-injuries" target="_blank">he's preparing to go fishing with his son</a>.</p>
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<p>The shoulder and elbow healthiness is the brightest point, of course. Peavy has missed time recently, sure, but he's made it through consecutive campaigns where his elbow and shoulder were not the cause, as they both have been in the past. In that time, he produced a 115 ERA+ over 55 starts, and even though 2013 was the worse of the two campaigns, he still contributed a 101 ERA+ between his time with the White and Red Sox. If he's right around there once more, and makes 25-30 starts for Boston, then he's more than done his job in the last year of his deal.</p>
<p>If he ends up missing more time than that, whether it's due to some other odd malady or because arm troubles finally return, the Red Sox have a lengthy list of replacements for him in the rotation. <span>Brandon Workman</span> could resume 2013's initial role as a starter -- a role he might be taking over for Peavy in 2015 regardless of how the veteran's 2014 works out. <span>Allen Webster</span>, should he finally get his command in order, could also be in line to fill in for Peavy. Matt Barnes will start at Triple-A this year, and while he's down the depth chart right now, he could be the top pitching prospect they have in the upper levels. <span>Anthony Ranaudo</span>, should he get his change-up and mechanics to both work consistently, is also an option. In an early season emergency, <span>Chris Capuano</span> is there, though, as we've recently discussed, should Peavy go to the disabled list, it's likely Workman's spot to fill in April.</p>
<p>Peavy's health matters to the 2014 Red Sox, but if he ends up hurt, they have other options. Luckily, recent history suggests that his most significant injury problems are behind him, or, at the least, not looming over him as they did in year's past. That's about all you can ask for with most pitchers during spring training.</p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2014/3/7/5474686/jake-peavy-injury-2014-red-soxMarc Normandin2014-03-05T12:19:15-05:002014-03-05T12:19:15-05:00What can we expect from Xander Bogaerts?
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<p>It's Xander's rookie season, and we're all excited, but what should we be expecting him to do?</p> <p><span>Xander Bogaerts</span> will be the starting shortstop for the 2014 <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Red Sox</a> in his rookie season. That is the only thing we know for a fact about his upcoming campaign, as the rest is all speculation. It's not speculation out of nowhere, of course -- we have his time in the minors, and his brief stint in the majors, to pull from -- but no one knows exactly what Bogaerts is going to be for the Red Sox in his first full year with the club.</p>
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<strong>More</strong>: <a target="new" href="http://www.overthemonster.com/2014/2/26/5449920/red-sox-2014-spring-training-profiles">Red Sox 2014 spring training profiles</a>
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<p>The openness of possibility is one reason there's so much excitement surrounding him: Bogaerts went from a promising prospect who hit some homers in the low minors at age 18 to a playoff hero in the span of two years, before he had even had a legitimate stay on a big-league roster. It's easy to see him once again exceeding reasonable expectations, and producing an even better campaign than the high-quality one of the man he's replacing at short, <span>Stephen Drew</span>.</p>
<p>Let's pull back from what we want to happen, though, and focus on what seems to be everyone's idea of what <i>will</i> happen. For that, we can turn to the various projection systems to see if there is any kind of general thought or consensus as to what Bogaerts can reasonably expect to produce.</p>
<ul>
<li><span><b>PECOTA</b>: .261/.322/.426, 2.4 wins, .273 TAv</span></li>
<li><span><b>Steamer</b>: .263/.324/.416, 2.3 wins, .325 wOBA</span></li>
<li><span><b>ZiPS</b>: .267/.331/.419, 2.7 wins, .334 wOBA</span></li>
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<p>Let's explain a few things, for those unfamiliar with the above or in need of a refresh. "TAv" is True Average, Baseball Prospectus' primary offensive statistic, while "wOBA" is weighted on-base average. TAv always has an average of .260 (much like OPS+ being at 100), so you can see that .273 is above-average by a solid amount, especially when you look at the 2013 shortstop average of .248. The wOBA figures are not adjusted -- they are based on on-base percentage, which is a moving average -- but wRC+ is the OPS+ of this particular statistic, and Bogaerts projects to 100 and 107, respectively, according to Steamer and ZiPS.</p>
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<img src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/3185945/Xander-HR.gif"><span>Bogaerts' first MLB home run, at Yankee Stadium.</span>
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<p>So, we have a baseline here -- that's what projections tend to forecast, the most-likely, median outcome of all potential outcomes -- that sees Bogaerts as an above-average talent in his rookie season, one who will bat for a low average, but draw walks, hit for what's considered power at shortstop in his first go-round of the league, and field well enough that his wins above replacement values won't take a hit. That's actually incredibly encouraging, because Bogaerts is absolutely capable of more.</p>
<p>Again, these projections represent the middle ground of expectations for Bogaerts. Sure, he could fail and be worse than these, but he has few holes in his game, has a high baseball IQ, and is a very quick learner capable of adapting to what the league is giving him. It's how he began to tear through Double-A pitching after about a month of the Eastern League adjusting to him, how he managed to turn a Triple-A promotion into a stepping stone to the majors in the same year, and how he was able to stay focused and productive at the plate in his first taste of postseason ball to cap it all off. Players like that rarely fail for extended periods of time: they adapt, and they thrive, so long as they get to keep playing.</p>
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<p>Chances are good that Bogaerts will best these projections, or, at the least, will be hitting much better than them by year's end at the latest. It's actually hard to buy into his hitting for as low of an average as these systems project, even, considering he struck out under 20 percent of the time and just over 17 percent of the time as one of the youngest players in both Double- and Triple-A in 2013. He's a year older now, and with some -- albeit limited -- big-league exposure to his credit -- I'd be surprised if he punched out with the regularity ZiPS (just under 25 percent) believes.</p>
<p>If he can put the ball in play, with his ability to go to all fields and get consistent, quality contact, the possibility of hitting 20-30 points higher is there, and with that comes an increase in on-base percentage and slugging. An optimistic -- but reasonable -- expectations for Bogaerts is probably something more like .280/.350/.450 or so, which would probably put him closer to four-win territory. That's definitely on the optimistic side, as stated, but you have to work to concoct a scenario where it isn't viable for a player with his talent.</p>
<p>We're talking about a prospect that MLB.com's team described as having "<a target="_blank" href="http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/">all the hallmarks of a future star</a>." Baseball Prospectus sees him as an "<a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22508">all-star level player</a>", projecting him for high averages and plenty of power. <i>Baseball America</i> describes Bogaerts' development and maturity as "<a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-prospect-list-pay/">shocking</a>" for his age, citing his "game-changing patience and power." That's all the player he'll eventually become, assuming things go to plan, but with the way he's developed so far, seeing him tap into a significant percentage of his future lines wouldn't be a surprise to anyone who has been paying attention to him.</p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2014/3/5/5473590/xander-bogaerts-2014-red-soxMarc Normandin2014-02-28T08:04:26-05:002014-02-28T08:04:26-05:00Will 2014 be Andrew Miller's big year?
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<p>Andrew Miller had an unfortunate injury that cut his 2013 season too short, but he has a real chance to redeem himself in a big way in 2014.</p> <p>Much has been written this offseason about the wealth of bullpen depth it appears the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> have heading into the 2014 season, and for good reason. With additions like <span>Burke Badenhop</span> and <span>Edward Mujica</span>, Ben Cherington has done a great job strengthening that unit. This is a big step forward from the end of last season, when the team leaned heavily upon the shoulders of <span>Koji Uehara</span>, <span>Craig Breslow</span>, and <span>Junichi Tazawa</span>, along with rookies <span>Brandon Workman</span> and Drake Britton. Injuries were a major factor for how thin the group was by the end of the season, and the most notable of those injuries were to <span>Andrew Bailey</span> and <span>Joel Hanrahan</span>, both of whom were supposed to be the late-inning anchors for the entirety of 2013. In addition to those two, though, the Red Sox also felt the absence of <span>Andrew Miller</span>, who was quietly outstanding in his half of season work last year. With a new season upon us, this could be the year in which the big lefty breaks out as a consistent contributor on this team.</p>
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<strong>More</strong>: <a target="new" href="http://www.overthemonster.com/2014/2/27/5452722/why-the-red-sox-wont-go-162-0">Why the Red Sox won't go 162-0 </a>
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<p>Miller famously failed when he first reached the majors as a top prospect, one who many hoped would be a front-line starter for years to come. Then in 2012, the Red Sox decided to shift him to relief duty on a full-time basis, and the move has paid off big time. He has made 90 appearances in the past two seasons -- second most for the team in that span behind Tazawa -- and has completely turned his career around. In those 90 appearances, he has a 138 ERA+ over 71 innings, along with a 99/37 K/BB. The walks have still been a bit of a problem for the 28-year-old, but that's a problem that is more easily hidden in the bullpen, especially when you strike out batters as often as Miller does.</p>
<p><img src="http://cdn1.sbnation.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/29281847/167685864.0.jpg"><font size="1"><i>Photo Courtesy of Jared Wickerham</i></font></p>
<p>His strikeout numbers are really his true bread and butter, and are the major reason he could be looking at a big breakout this season. He's always had high-quality stuff, but he was never able to harness it in a starting role, putting up mostly average strikeout numbers in his years in the rotation. Since shifting to the bullpen, though, he's been able to let loose a little more, racking up strikeouts at an impressive rate. Over the last two years, he has struck out 12.5 batters per nine innings, and a total of 32.5 percent of the batters he has faced. The numbers were especially impressive last season, when he had 14.2 K/9, and a 35.6 percent K-rate before being shelved for the season in June after 30-2/3 innings of work. To put those numbers into context, that K-rate was the seventh best in all of baseball among relievers with at least 20 innings in 2013, while his K/9 ranked second, trailing only Aroldis Chapman. If he can continue that upward trend this season, he could reach Kimbrel-esque strikeout totals.</p>
<p>Fortunately for the Red Sox, all signs point to Miller adapting much more to his relief role last season. His stuff was incredible, carrying a swinging strike rate of 13.2 percent, about 3.5 points higher than his previous career high. Along with that, he threw his first pitch for a strike more often than he ever has before, hit the zone at a career-best rate, and induced swings both in and out of the zone better than ever. Since he got injured so suddenly and had to miss half the season, it's tough to decipher what is small sample noise and what's real. Using the eye test, it seemed mostly real, as he was a dominant force for the first few months of the year. Combining the eye test with the realization that he's finally getting comfortable in a new role, there's plenty of reason to believe those strides he took are here to stay.</p>
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<p>In addition to all of this, Miller may also see his share of time in high-leverage situations. As of right now, he likely finds himself behind Uehara, Tazawa, Breslow and Mujica on the depth chart, but bullpens are so fluid and unpredictable that much of that could change even by Opening Day. It's also important to consider that Miller was used in big spots last year, thanks to his ability to strike batters out. Farrell has indicated he wouldn't be afraid to turn to him in the ninth inning if Uehara can't go. Though he's a lefty, he doesn't show the typical splits of a southpaw, and could succeed in a late-inning role regardless of the handedness of the batter. Last season, he actually showed reverse splits, with opposing lefties posting a .324 wOBA, while opposing righties put up a .263 mark. For his career, his righty/lefty wOBA split sits at .363/.333.</p>
<p>Since he wasn't an offseason acquisition, and he didn't play a role in the late-season run the Red Sox made to the championship, it's easy for Andrew Miller to become something of a forgotten man. Once you remember how dominant he was for the first half of 2013, it's easy to start to get excited about what this year could possibly bring for the big lefty. Given his high strikeout totals and upward trending numbers around the strikezone, there are plenty of reasons to believe that this is the season that Andrew Miller makes his name as one of the better relief pitchers in the American League.</p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2014/2/28/5455466/andrew-miller-red-sox-2014Matt_Collins