Over the Monster - All PostsBut Can He Pitch?https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/32934/otm-fv.jpg2024-03-28T19:00:00-04:00http://www.overthemonster.com/rss/current/2024-03-28T19:00:00-04:002024-03-28T19:00:00-04:00Game 1: Red Sox vs Mariners
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<figcaption>Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Here we go…</p> <p id="E3UFjv">Well, here we are. After a long offseason that certainly left fans frustrated at times, Opening Day is here.</p>
<p id="YUM73A">The last time Boston won on Opening Day? 2017! Alex Cora hasn’t managed a win in the first game of the season during his tenure. Even during the amazing 2018 campaign. This is also Cora’s 811th game managing the Sox. He enters the die tied in games with old friend John Farrell. He’ll try to end his personal losing streak tonight. And he’s got the right guy on the mound.</p>
<p id="ca6BxJ">Brayan Bello, who signed a six-year deal with the <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> over the winter, makes his first Opening Day start. The sky is the limit with this kid.</p>
<p id="TDllSr">Jarren Duran is leading off. Trevor Story starts in the three spot - a big voter of confidence. Newcomer Tyler O’Neill hit fifth providing some protection for Triston Casas. </p>
<p id="dUubWQ">The <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/">Seattle Mariners</a> send Luis Castillo, a veteran who finished fifth in AL Cy Young voting. </p>
<p id="oruGMf">Julio Rodriguez, who won the AL MVP in 2022 “only” finished fourth in MVP voting in last season. But the Sox hope he gets off to another slow start, since, you know, they face him early. </p>
<p id="fsbm6J">First pitch is at 10:10 PM ET on WEEI and NESN.</p>
<p id="Gr7WSJ">Let’s go!</p>
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https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/28/24115031/game-1-red-sox-vs-marinersMike Carlucci2024-03-28T14:39:49-04:002024-03-28T14:39:49-04:00The Red Seat: Prediction Time!
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<figcaption>Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Jake, Keaton, and Bob give their 2024 predictions for the Red Sox, as well as MLB standings, playoffs, and awards. </p> <p id="gFWouL">Welcome back to The Red Seat Podcast, episode number 311. This week, Jake Devereaux, Keaton DeRocher, and Bob Osgood are here to make all the 2024 predictions, including the regular season standings, MLB playoffs, season-long awards, and last but quite possibly least, the Boston Red Sox. </p>
<p id="B2XfKV">First, there were a couple of surprises on the Red Sox roster that needed some review. Joely Rodriguez, Chase Anderson, and Bobby Dalbec are IN. Brennan Bernardino, Cooper Criswell, and CJ Cron are OUT. How surprised were we all by each of these moves?</p>
<p id="HphWou">Only one of us picked the Red Sox to have a losing record in 2024, but the playoffs sure seem like a long shot. We also reviewed our Red Sox team MVP, LVP, and best pitcher and defensive player on this year’s team. </p>
<p id="Ca2Ruw">We then discussed each of the six divisions in-depth, giving our individual predictions of standings place, as well as playoff seeding. Not surprisingly, the Central divisions had the most variety, but we also debated the Giants vs. the Diamondbacks, the Mets vs. the Marlins, and the Rangers vs. the Astros. </p>
<p id="0vWoOu">In the AL East, Jake defends his last-place Rays take, while Keaton and Bob both have them in the top two in the division. </p>
<p id="sz4kCM">We wrapped things up by giving our picks for AL and NL MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year, followed by ALCS, NLCS, and World Series predictions. </p>
<p id="FerX5u">If you have a question for an upcoming Red Seat pod, you can email us at redseatpodcast@gmail.com or tweet us. On Twitter, Jake is @DevJake, Keaton is @TheSpokenKeats and Bob is @BobOsgood15. Thanks for listening!</p>
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https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/28/24114281/the-red-seat-red-sox-podcast-prediction-time-mlb-opening-day-2024Bob OsgoodKeaton DeRocherJake Devereaux2024-03-28T09:00:00-04:002024-03-28T09:00:00-04:00OTM Open Thread 3/28: It is Thursday
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<p>Opening Day is here!</p> <p id="zQQSk5">Happy Opening Day!</p>
<p id="562Dpd">In, checks notes, just over 12 hours the <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> take on the <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/">Seattle Mariners</a>. 10:10 PM ET. LOL. Full Throttle indeed.</p>
<p id="q5vDzg">Brayan Bello makes his first Opening Day start of hopefully <em>many</em>. </p>
<p id="iai0Jl">The Run Prevention Unit hits the field.</p>
<p id="3R4ZvC">All teams (except the <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a> and Padres) are 0-0. </p>
<p id="g3iAQu">Look, no one thinks this is a championship year. But let’s not drop 10 games under .500 to kick things off and watch the team try to crawl back.</p>
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<p id="L5UaGK">Talk about what you want and be good to one another.</p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/28/24114460/otm-open-thread-3-28-it-is-thursdayMike Carlucci2024-03-28T06:54:00-04:002024-03-28T06:54:00-04:00How The Red Sox Won The AL East In 2024
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<figcaption>Photo by Rich Gagnon/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>On Opening Day, we peek into a future full of hope and champagne.</p> <p id="lgV6Pj">September 27, 2024: <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> 7, Rays 5</p>
<p id="MdavbI">With that, the Red Sox clinched the American Least East at Fenway Park for the first time since 2017. <em>Wait, really? </em>Yes, really. The kids turned out just fine. </p>
<p id="yKtaBy">The game, and team, changed before our very eyes. Some teams took steps to embrace the new rules by getting younger and more athletic. Others (New York) stayed stuck in their ways, clinging to the three true outcomes approach and falling flat as a result. </p>
<p id="tuXV77">The Red Sox fell into the former, led by Trevor Story and Ceddane Rafaela. Triston Casas also improved defensively while Vaughn Grissom grew into the second base position. Fly balls appeared to be suspended from the ceiling. Duran, Rafaela, and O’Neill running them down seemingly every time. While the pitching staff lacked star power, the defense held things together by making the plays you’d expect them to and countless others. </p>
<aside id="A9NlyM"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"How the Red Sox Finished In Last Place in 2024","url":"https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/28/24114162/how-the-red-sox-finished-in-last-place-in-2024-mlb-opening-day"},{"title":"The OTM Staff Predicts the 2024 Red Sox Season","url":"https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/28/24112358/the-otm-staff-predicts-the-2024-red-sox-season-mlb-opening-day"}]}'></div></aside><p id="5BsQPp">Speaking of pitching, Brayan Bello took the ball on opening day in Seattle and didn’t look back. He dialed in his slider, pushing his strikeout rate over 23% while continuing to use his sinker for quick outs. With his more polished arsenal, Bello routinely pitched into the sixth, seventh, and sometimes even eighth inning. </p>
<p id="QmajSS">Behind him, Kutter Crawford unlocked his potential and made a habit of making hitters look foolish with his fastball/slider combination. Nick Pivetta came out of the gate slowly as he struggled with command, but eventually warmed up with the weather. Andrew Bailey worked his magic at the back end of the staff, coaching Garrett Whitlock to his best season since his rookie year. </p>
<p id="0fddH5">Offensively, the team was the least surprising. Devers and Casas carried the load, ranking among the best duos in the league. Trevor Story finally stayed healthy and continued his torrid spring training by hitting 25 home runs, stealing bases, and improving his strikeout rate. Jarren Duran set the table all season, wreaking havoc on the bases, and Tyler O’Neill had his best season since 2021. </p>
<p id="PdXJim">Yet, despite the early success, fans had difficulty buying in. The bullpen scuffled early and the New Englanders who were paying attention waited for Craig Breslow to pull the plug, trading veterans for future assets. In the days leading up to the deadline, the Red Sox found themselves three games out of the division, and two games up on the final wild card spot. </p>
<p id="zNQuig">On July 27th, something happened. It wasn’t a switch-flipping moment for the Fenway faithful, but the dimmer started to rotate. In a tightly contested game against the <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a>, Chris Martin was unavailable, and the Yankees were threatening in the eighth. Liam Hendriks made his debut, striking out two hitters with the tying run on second base. He came off the mound screaming obscenities that could be heard from the Truly Terrace and fans started to believe. Two days later, Breslow added a starter, Tanner Houck moved to the bullpen, and the chase was on. </p>
<p id="ycDJY5">In September, Devers turned in one of the best months of his career, carrying the offense on nights when the offense struggled, Rafaela made game-saving catches in the outfield on multiple occasions, and Brayan Bello threw a seven-inning, one-hit gem against Baltimore to take the division lead for the first time since April. Alex Cora did what Alex Cora does, managing each game like there was no tomorrow, piecing games together with anything available. By September, the fans were back in full force, in part due to the team, and in part due to the new, larger beers being sold in the concourse. Much to the chagrin of opposing outfielders, the bleachers became a melting pot of inebriated college students, inebriated young professionals, and inebriated Boston townies. On September 27th, Hendriks once again closed the door, celebration ensued, and “full throttle” took on a whole new meaning. </p>
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https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/28/24113123/how-the-red-sox-won-the-al-east-in-2024-mlb-opening-dayJacob Roy2024-03-28T06:53:26-04:002024-03-28T06:53:26-04:00How the Red Sox Finished In Last Place in 2024
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<figcaption>Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>On Opening Day, we peek into a future that is dark and full of terrors. </p> <p id="5vUdwl">Cooper Criswell didn’t ask for this. </p>
<p id="r4wVha">In fact, he said exactly that, way back during that now infamous press conference following the home opener. “Hey, I didn’t ask for this,” the embattled hurler said after giving up six first inning runs as the replacement for Garrett Whitlock, who’d injured himself while high-fiving Connor Wong at the conclusion of his complete game shutout against the Mariners the week before. “Do you think I signed up to start the home opener for the <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Boston Red Sox</a>? Come on, man, I’m Cooper Freaking Criswell! Do I look like Jordon Montgomery? Or Blake Snell? Or Aaron Nola? Or Eduardo Rodriguez? Or Sonny Gray? Or Marcus Stroman? Or Shota Imanaga? Or that guy whose name I forgot who got busted for gambling?”</p>
<p id="1nq858">Twenty minutes later, after he’d finally finished reading off the list of unsigned free agent pitchers he’d written on both palms, both forearms, and the upper half of his left abdomen, the narrative of the season had been set: 2024 was the year of Cooper Criswell. </p>
<p id="3n7YLM">It’s not fair. But then again baseball rarely is. </p>
<p id="gfZ3H1">What is fair, though, is that a team that began an offseason with an acknowledged fatal flaw — only to subsequently bring in exactly zero players from outside the organization to address that flaw — finished in last place. Again. So here we are. The 2023 Red Sox finished in last place because they didn’t have enough quality starting pitching. The 2024 version. . . yeah, you already know. Cooper Criswell. </p>
<p id="AWkiWd">It wasn’t all bad, though, was it? Triston Casas officially became a star, hitting 38 homers, improving his defense, and making his first All-Star team. The fact that he achieved all of this while serving as a part-time lifeguard at the M Street Beach in Southie (“I find that the tactile experience of delivering mouth-to-mouth resuscitation really helps to center my body, be present in the moment, and lay off 0-2 sliders.”) was even more impressive. Here’s hoping that offseason contract extension talks go well, though Craig Breslow probably doesn’t feel great about the fact that, in the midst of his three-homer game against the <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a>, on-field mics picked up Casas shouting “that’s another fifty mil!” while rubbing the fingers of one hand together and using his other hand to draw up architectural plans for an in-home spa with thermal baths made of melted-down Krugerrands. </p>
<p id="SZkg9b">Vaughn Grissom flashed some promise in between three different stints on the IL. Masataka Yoshida recovered from his fatigued rookie season to prove to be a perfectly cromulent DH. And Tyler O’Neill finished in third place at the 67th annual Mr. New England competition at Weirs Beach, New Hampshire. Go, Tyler!</p>
<aside id="X1UIXs"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"How The Red Sox Won The AL East In 2024 ","url":"https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/28/24113123/how-the-red-sox-won-the-al-east-in-2024-mlb-opening-day"},{"title":"The OTM Staff Predicts the 2024 Red Sox Season","url":"https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/28/24112358/the-otm-staff-predicts-the-2024-red-sox-season-mlb-opening-day"}]}'></div></aside><p id="XPB3ci">And look: even the pitching had its moments. Whitlock logged six different starts of seven innings or more. Kutter Crawford quietly put up one of the 10 lowest ERAs in the American League in the second half. And Nick Pivetta had a six-week stretch in which he never allowed more than two earned runs in a game while averaging nine strikeouts per start (that’s right: I said per start, not per nine innings pitched). Was it Pivetta’s fault that he proceeded to give up 13 homers in his next five games games, leading to his demotion to the bullpen, or was it our fault for somehow believing that 2024 would be different than every other year of his career? </p>
<p id="NbLCNA">By the time the trade deadline rolled around, there was no question whether the Red Sox would be buyers or sellers. The bullpen games, the late-inning baserunning blunders, and, yes, all those Cooper Criswell starts made Craig Breslow’s decision easy. <em>So long, Kenley, Chris, Jarren, and Tyler. Welcome, plethora of single-A lottery tickets all named Jackson and Walker. </em></p>
<p id="LDtrIJ">Maybe 2025 will be different. Tom Werner has already indicated that it might be, when he spoke to the press following the final game of the season and guaranteed that the Sox would sign Roki Sasaki, Juan Soto, and the entire roster of players in the Korean Baseball Organization. </p>
<p id="UhNd4Z">Despite concern from the White House that signing the entire foreign league could lead to tension with an important strategic ally, Werner’s thoughts were later echoed by team President Sam Kennedy. “Anyone who thinks we’re not committed to winning,” sneered Kennedy, “is a liar who doesn’t have the guts to call 877-REDSOX9 and reserve their Aura Pavilion 20-game ticket package for 2025 today.” To sweeten the deal, Kennedy promised new season ticket-holders and additional perk: a framed print of Brayan Bello’s latest MRI imaging, autographed by the only pitcher who was still available, Cooper Criswell. </p>
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https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/28/24114162/how-the-red-sox-finished-in-last-place-in-2024-mlb-opening-dayDan Secatore2024-03-28T06:52:13-04:002024-03-28T06:52:13-04:00The OTM Staff Predicts the 2024 Red Sox Season
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<p>What will be the story of the next six months? </p> <h3 id="pJOOlW">Record and Finish</h3>
<p id="9LfbtO"><strong>79-83, Fifth Place.</strong></p>
<p id="0lX3cZ">There are plenty of things I like about this team. I believe that Triston Casas will take a leap into stardom in 2024. I think the rotation, while lacking an ace, will pleasantly surprise people with all five guys performing as solid number threes. I think Trevor Story, while no longer capable of playing like he did in Colorado, will hit twenty-five homers and vastly improve the defense. </p>
<p id="3rH64X">And still, I think this team has no chance of making the postseason. There’s no pitching depth to help them weather the inevitable injuries. There aren’t enough consistent hitters in the lineup. The bullpen could slump after proving to be the most effective part of the team last season (relying on two guys who are 36 and 37 to be your top two relievers is asking for trouble). And it’s hard to envision any scenario in which Craig Breslow doesn’t further weaken the MLB roster by selling at the trade deadline.</p>
<p id="eQdmDR">This is the era of meh. </p>
<p id="Miwn8J"><em>— Dan Secatore</em></p>
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<p id="uJeyLr"><strong>83-79, Fourth Place</strong></p>
<p id="zlHQDP">There’s plenty to like about this <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> roster even if it is a similar group to last season. The season’s success will likely be defined by how well the pitching holds up. If the rotation can stay healthy, and that’s a big if, I could the team earning a wild card. Although the names on the staff are familiar, they’re each a year older, more experienced, and have a new, well-respected pitching coach to help them become the best versions of themselves. Defensively, full seasons of Trevor Story and Ceddane Rafaela should greatly improve the defense, and the offense still has formidable batss. </p>
<p id="mmrT38">Last season, the Red Sox were in the mix until around the trade deadline. They stood pat and the wheels promptly fell off. If they were to find themselves in a similar spot, Craig Breslow may have a hard time not supplementing his roster. In any case, I don’t deadline moves to take the team over the top, but they could be enough to add a few wins to last year’s total. </p>
<p id="8rjvnT"><em>— Jacob Roy</em></p>
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<p id="aYDDPL"><strong>83-79, Fifth Place</strong></p>
<p id="Dcuelp">In 2001 the Red Sox went 82-79 and finished in 2nd place in the AL East. In 2002 they would win 93 games. In 2003 they would set up the dynasty and in 2004, of course, break the curse. There is no Manny Ramirez on this team but Rafael Devers and Triston Casas are going to do their darnedest. There is no Pedro Martinez on this team but Brayan Bello will do his best to carry the mantle of ace. </p>
<p id="T3LUoc">The Big Three prospects (or some of them) might join the team during the season. Vaughn Grissom could pull himself together and claim a Major League job at second base for half a decade. Trevor Story, healthy, could revitalize shortstop for Boston with defense and offense not really seen together at the position in, well, a while. An outfield of O’Neil, Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, and Yoshida could be solid with the bat and pretty good defensively depending on how much time Yoshi spends on the grass. </p>
<p id="YCM4Pn">A rotation of Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck, and Whitlock has extraordinary error bars. Bello is a developing top-of-the-rotation guy but we don’t know if he hits that ceiling in 2024. Pivetta I truly don’t know what to make of. He was terrible and then brilliant with an opener. If he can open for himself he’s not your ideal number two starter but a guy you want in a rotation. The last three are somehow more volatile than Pivetta. Crawford at time showed he could get through a lineup. Houck had some bright spots before getting hit. And Whitlock, well, can he be Reliever Whitlock for twice the innings? There’s not much on the horizon in terms of pitching prospects. If these guys can’t rack up 5-6 innings and Quality Starts the Sox could lose <em>a lot</em> of games. </p>
<p id="cWF5M4">What’s going right in the division to sneak into fourth place? Well, the Orioles still don’t have a great rotation. The Jays haven’t made a leap and have a lot of questions. The Rays lost their best player to a scandal. And the <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a> have Cole and Judge question marks. If they don’t give up in August and September again this is probably the best last place team in MLB and going into 2025 like it went into 2002.</p>
<p id="JLM8Hb">-<em>Mike Carlucci</em></p>
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<p id="LCkQXw"><strong>80-82, Fifth Place</strong></p>
<p id="fS6ldl">If we take into account all the wheelings and dealings of Craig Breslow’s first offseason as Chief Baseball Officer, I would have given this team maybe three or four more wins and slid them up into fourth place. Why am I taking these off and putting the Sox right back in the basement? Key injuries…once again. </p>
<p id="XxZ3Wt">Vaughn Grissom’s injury puts a slight damper on the building of an infield core that includes powerhouses in Triston Casas and Rafael Devers, and a hopefully healthy Trevor Story. Enmanuel Valdez and Pablo Reyes will fill in well, but it’s not exactly what Sox fans would have hoped for. The REAL bane is losing Lucas Giolito for the season. Was the only starting pitcher Breslow picked up a flashy signing? Not in the least bit. But was he ready to become the reclamation project that ate innings and saved an extremely taxed bullpen last year? Abso-freaking-lutely he was. And now, we’re back to last year. </p>
<p id="ZTKJxo">Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta are going to be charged with actually being good, the former taking another massive leap in his development into an ace and the latter regaining his 2021 Super Saiyan form. We witness another season of the game “Are Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock starters or relievers!” and at the moment, both are starters. Kutter Crawford rounds out this group, which is…fine? I do inherently think the offense and defense will take a step forward this season, but once again, pitching is this team’s weak spot. Can they be better with Andrew Bailey and the Run Prevention Unit leading the way? Yes, and I expect them to be with a much more impressive approach to working with the arms on this squad than the last few seasons. But that can only take you so far, and with a ceiling of talent that isn’t high within the rotation and bullpen personnel (save a few players), it can’t take them far enough. </p>
<p id="SWzlmO">Another offseason of begging FSG to spend money comes up short and the end result is a slightly better but not nearly good enough team, none of which the fans deserve.</p>
<p id="TC3RES"><em>— Jake Reiser </em></p>
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<p id="66EtVi"><strong>72-90, Fifth Place</strong></p>
<p id="e9wVEc">Pessimist here. I’m going to keep this as short and sweet as I can knowing that I will be talking ad nauseam on a daily basis about the offseason’s shortcomings and the implications that has on organizational depth, the players’ effort, the fan’s engagement in the season and the team at large, and, obviously, team performance. </p>
<p id="DLRcLk">Despite quips from front office — yes, including those two words I won’t say in this article, but words Mike Carlucci says later on — this was supposed to be the offseason of improvement. And, yet, perhaps objectively, this team is worse than they were on the last day of the 2023 season — and no more improved on a standpoint of spending money to ensure the roster doesn’t have to absorb the injuries that surely happen. Matt Gross wrote a few weeks ago about the team needing to decrease their <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/18/24096900/the-red-sox-must-reduce-their-proximity-to-the-tension-point-yankees-american-league-east-playoffs">proximity to the tension point</a>; the same can be said in decreasing the roster from a point of trotting a Triple-A team out to the most expensive ballpark to watch a baseball game. And all this on a season that we’re celebrating the anniversary of a momentous occasion of the team... this same owner... having that great combination of likable guys who played ball well and invested in both the present and the future to remain a constant contender. This is a team of half-measures in messaging, in practice, in performance, in acquisition, you name it. That’s all for this sour grapes session; apologies for what’s almost guaranteed to be more grapes to go around for the rest of 2024. At least we get to sit back knowing this team is going nowhere and measure some pieces that could be tangibly valuable to future, better performing, teams. Unless they want to be paid money anytime soon, that is.</p>
<p id="vAy9tP"><em>– Dean Roussel</em></p>
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<p id="h7oYUv"><strong>83-79, Fourth Place</strong></p>
<p id="eja1QP">Listen, the best thing I can say about this version of the Red Sox is that I don’t feel the crushing weight of disappointment before the season even starts. Yes, I wish they did more in the offseason but at least what they did do, they did with purpose and seemingly, a plan. A plan isn’t much but it’s more than we’ve had in years. It was refreshing to watch Breslow operate in the manner that you would expect a sober CBO to act even if that aforesaid person was hampered by an ownership that doesn’t have any interest in winning. </p>
<p id="hp5wTT">I’m genuinely excited about Ceddanne Rafaela and his 80 grade defense in center field. I think watching Devers and Casas hit moon shots will make me smile. Even the little things like the new names in the bullpen or seeing Bello continue to mature have me excited for spring. Maybe I’m just a sicko who spends way too much time looking at the Red Sox Roster Resource page — guilty as charged. I’m also wildly optimistic because I don’t have them finishing last. Spring is here, baseball is here, Bloom is gone, and now I can breathe easy no matter what happens. </p>
<p id="VqXnXR"><em>–Jake Devereaux</em></p>
<p id="VtT6bl"></p>
<p id="pDZMHn">I’m going to do this backwards: <strong>The Red Sox will NOT finish between 75 and 84 wins</strong></p>
<p id="TVJLa5">Last year, the Red Sox did something pretty unusual. They went the entire season without ever getting ten or more games above or below .500. They were wildly mediocre. An incomplete construction zone of a roster. This year, the dam is going to break in either direction. </p>
<p id="vQNZxP">By most accounts, the Sox had a very good spring down in Florida, which means one of two things. </p>
<p id="jraQKP">1) Everything; or </p>
<p id="lB227j">2) Absolutely nothing</p>
<p id="V2Y5vy">Either the best acquisition the team made this winter was Andrew Bailey, and he’s a pitching whisperer, and the entire staff is going to get better, or they’re going to quickly run out of depth and melt in the summer heat. Either the team will check out early after ownership didn’t add much of anything this winter and Alex Cora will have one foot out the door by August, or the guys in the room will galvanize around each other, use it as a rallying cry, and come out extra motivated to get off to a hot start and show people they’re worthy of attention. </p>
<p id="cN2laQ">Whichever direction the table starts to tilt in the first couple of months is going to create a feedback loop. Four months from now, the Sox could have a sneaky impressive roster of guys who have learned to punch above their weight via a combination of career years, young guys blossoming, and good health. They will be one of those teams who grind out at-bats, get production from a new guy every night, and win in different ways. Or, four months from now they will be a complete disaster going down in flames with guys quitting after looking around at the room and seeing a total lack of depth. They will have embarrassingly anonymous names starting in August and September just to fill out the slate, and they will be on their way to their seventh last place finish in 13 years. </p>
<p id="R0ePHv">There are enough high variance guys on this roster for things to deviate substantially off script. I just don’t know which direction the pot is going to tilt just yet. </p>
<p id="vmj9uZ"><em>-Matthew Gross</em></p>
<p id="Z4ZadR"></p>
<p id="IQ3vEk"><strong>80-82, Fifth Place</strong></p>
<p id="rqxOsu">As an Aries, I’m a sucker for spring. I love the daffodils, the budding trees, the way you can feel the sun warming, my birthday coming up, and—generally—the optimism of a new baseball season. I want so bad to be optimistic, but this isn’t our year. Craig Breslow & Co. made one decent effort to improve our disgustingly porous infield, and that was to get Vaughn Grissom. Despite starting the year on the IL, I do have hope for him and believe he’s a real upgrade over that merry-go-round we fielded for way too long. Breslow has made other incremental improvements around the margins, some of which have already been negated by injuries. And then there’s pitching. No, it’s not his fault that the Ulnar Collateral Ligment Fairy paid a nighttime visit to Lucas Giolito. But it is his and FSG’s fault that they didn’t acquire depth to mitigate and ride out inevitable stints on the IL. It is also their fault that they didn’t make a move to formulate a true Plan B once this particular injury occurred. No matter how gritty and/or lucky our collection of players might prove to be, there’s no outplaying this kind of leadership. Or lack thereof.</p>
<p id="LvqJDw"><em>— Maura McGurk</em></p>
<p id="0uxl6N"></p>
<p id="6VxF2N"><strong>79-83, Fifth Place</strong></p>
<p id="Pv65HR">An improvement on last year! Sure, there are paths to success with this Red Sox team and I won’t rule anything out (other than the strange helium that this team is a sneaky pick for worst overall MLB record), but they had to thread the needle of highest percentile outcomes in so many places, even before Lucas Giolito was ruled out for the season. Trevor Story and Tyler O’Neill have each had TWO down years in a row, Vaughn Grissom is already injured, Triston Casas has been injured three times in the past two years, Jarren Duran has had a strong half-season in his career, Ceddanne Rafaela is a rookie, Masataka Yoshida hit a wall in the second half. Can nearly all of these players reach their potential? And that’s not even bringing up Craig Breslow saying in December that he has been “pretty outspoken, pretty vocal about the need for us to improve starting pitching” and then somehow enters the season with one <em>fewer</em> starting pitcher than they had a year ago, and a closer whose back is already an issue. </p>
<p id="yVxEIh">Too many things have to go right and with a pitching staff that has very few workhorses, I fear that the Red Sox will be dipping into their 7<sup>th</sup>, 8<sup>th</sup>, and 9<sup>th</sup> starters far earlier than we would hope this season and we’ve seen that movie before. </p>
<p id="jTS7F0"><em>— Bob Osgood</em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="6OxlHr">
<h3 id="N6YE0t">Who will have the most pleasantly surprising season?</h3>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Boston Red Sox Photo Day" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/52Dmd1mstaJy0a3Pdn4uhNYsKxs=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25359210/2043987067.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
<p id="ZNnwjs"><strong>Nick Pivetta.</strong></p>
<p id="7SSMR2">Forget my doubts above. He’s the (after Bello) ace.</p>
<p id="sjQP0h">-<em>Mike Carlucci</em></p>
<p id="Xw3K1c"><strong>Tyler O’Neill.</strong></p>
<p id="0XDDv8">This was a move that impressed me from CB and company. As always lately, this is contingent on O’Neill staying healthy, but if he can regain his form, I can see this working out as well as the peak of Hunter Renfroe when he was in Boston: a power RH bat with strong defense and a cannon of an arm in right field. </p>
<p id="X1M5Hp"><em>— Jake Reiser</em></p>
<p id="Y7TzPS"><strong>Garrett Whitlock</strong></p>
<p id="Fi6cvc">When Garrett Whitlock broke onto the scene in 2021, he looked to me like a guy who had some down-ballot Cy Young votes in his future. Obviously that future has yet to come to pass, but in Texas two nights ago, he looked even nastier than his 2021 self. I think there’s a very good chance that, under Bailey and Breslow, he can be the team’s best pitcher this year.</p>
<p id="j0l312"><em>— Dan Secatore</em></p>
<p id="feWsWy"><strong>Kutter Crawford</strong></p>
<p id="YDJcmh">Because he’s got to, right? All the analytics are pointing in his favor. His prominent — and solidified — spot in the rotation, however weak the rotation is, is pointing in his favor. He’s getting guys <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/kutter-crawford-676710?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb">to chase</a>, he’s striking guys out fairly well, and he’s going to have an increased role in this year’s rotation to put that on full display. If Kutter Crawford falls too short of early projections of having a breakout season, this team will be much worse than we can even anticipate. Full stop. </p>
<p id="WgWO2I"><em>– Dean Roussel</em></p>
<p id="pQ9xlq"><strong>Garrett Whitlock</strong></p>
<p id="93Kt5R">I’m quadrupling down on this take. Garrett Whitlock <em>will</em> succeed as a starting pitcher this year. For the first time since 2021, he’s not battling an injury going into the season. He also appears to have made the change I’ve been begging for tweaking his sinker to add more drop, similar to his 2021 version of the pitch. He’s always been a strike thrower; if he can use his sinker and cutter to suppress hard contact, he’ll be able to get deep into games routinely. If he remains healthy, Whitlock can develop into a top starter in the American League. </p>
<p id="crPZNr"><em>— Jacob Roy</em></p>
<p id="jtBw52"><strong>Vaughn Grissom</strong></p>
<p id="hCo57m">After being sidelined for a short while while recovering from a strained groin, Vaughn Grissom is going to win a lot of Sox fans over. Second base has been a revolving door of mediocrity since Dustin Pedroia’s health took a turn for the worse and he was forced to call it quits. In Grissom we have a guy who will maintain a high batting average, make a ton of contact, and play the game with an edge. Even if Chris Sale pitches incredibly this season for Atlanta, we will all be happy with the fact that Grissom is the future at the keystone. </p>
<p id="0O5O3z"><em>–Jake Devereaux</em></p>
<p id="qnQNfG"><strong>Trevor Story</strong></p>
<p id="0ko89T">People are about to find out how many different ways Story can impact a game when he’s right. Power, defense, baserunning, leadership. It’s an absolute joy to watch when it all comes together! Get a full season of good health out of him and he will come back with MVP votes. Oh, and if this happens with the team anywhere close to playoff contention, it will go to another level because in that scenario his wide array of weapons will start netting the Sox wins in a variety of different meaningful ballgames. </p>
<p id="vStINj"><em>-Matthew Gross</em></p>
<p id="fmpSwR"><strong>Vaughn Grissom</strong></p>
<p id="pQKzEv">I’m in agreement with Jake Devereaux here. I think Vaughn Grissom will be a breath of fresh air in the infield. I mean, certainly nothing could be worse than the revolving door we fielded at second for so long, could it? [Murphy’s Law, do not strike me down!] Post-IL, I foresee him settling comfortably into a smooth role in the field. He has the oh-so-professional Trevor Story as a model, and the confidence that must come from knowing that he’s a far better defender than the two remaining infielders (at least for now; Triston Casas still has the time and temperament to grow in the field). And also? I know that Chris Sale has had a very fine spring, but I’m thankful to Vaughn Grissom for removing this scarecrow from around our necks.</p>
<p id="6AmmdA"><em>— Maura McGurk</em></p>
<p id="XSfv31"><strong>Jarren Duran</strong></p>
<p id="MkKaGb">The tone in which everyone is talking about Jarren Duran entering this season, you would think that he had only one hot month to end 2023 and we shall see if he can carry it forward to 2024. In reality, from the day that Duran got called up last season, he hit the ground running and didn’t stop until a slow two-week stretch in August before his season ended due to a toe injury. In the 88 games that Duran played (72 starts) from April 17<sup>th</sup> through August 4<sup>th</sup>, Duran slashed .317/.367/.522 with 32 doubles, 8 home runs, a 23-for-25 success rate stealing bases, and a 137 wRC+. I’m not sure how much more you could ask for. He seems like he finally has gained the trust of Alex Cora and will be hitting leadoff to start the season. I’m expecting Duran to continue to run wild on the bases with the new rules and be an integral part of this Sox lineup all season long. </p>
<p id="iLbp73"><em>— Bob Osgood</em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="STKvjI">
<h3 id="HgKX71">Who will have the most disappointing season? </h3>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Boston Red Sox v Texas Rangers" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/fQ6H6RN66-WTkYrbgnBx4XWecTc=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25359211/2105335518.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
<p id="l1ZElN"><strong>Jarren Duran. </strong></p>
<p id="lz7l8H">Sorry, Bob, but BABIP don’t lie.</p>
<p id="G2c9wt"><em> — Dan Secatore</em></p>
<p id="sxTdBb"><strong>Connor Wong.</strong></p>
<p id="z4VA5z">I like Connor Wong. And this is in no way saying he’s not the best option they have. He’s a fine player and can hold down catcher on <em>this</em> team but he’s a low-average, low-OBP hitter who can control the running game and likely is what he is at this point. </p>
<p id="FuObWj">-<em>Mike Carlucci</em></p>
<p id="InoHQB"><strong>Connor Wong.</strong></p>
<p id="xgJoDR">Hard not to agree with Mike, here. Combine that with what looked like a strong spring from Reese McGuire and now Kyle Teel breathing down his neck from the minors, it’s hard not to see Wong as the odd man out behind the dish…and maybe sooner rather than later.</p>
<p id="qmopU6"><em>— Jake Reiser</em></p>
<p id="GPojS5"><strong>Rafael Devers.</strong></p>
<p id="I4x7km">Put your pitchforks down. I do not believe Rafael Devers will have a bad season by any means. But disappointment is subjective, and as Maura McGurk <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/15/24101548/red-sox-preview-things-were-terrified-of-in-2024-rafael-devers-sub-4-war-seasons-becoming-a-trend">pointed out a few weeks ago</a>, these sub-4-WAR seasons, thanks to uninspired defensive play, are becoming a trend unbecoming of someone you have under contract for another decade, as well as someone you have penciled in as the face of the franchise for these years. I’m glad to be proven wrong but if I’m not, and Devers leads the AL in errors by a third baseman for a seventh consecutive season, I’d be just as happy about the front office coming together to optimize Devers’ presence in the locker room and many strengths at the plate to utilize his services better.</p>
<p id="gYE77I"><em>– Dean Roussel</em></p>
<p id="SP2Khu"><strong>Nick Pivetta</strong></p>
<p id="8hsXXm">Stuff+ be damned. I know who Nick Pivetta is. I don’t really care how good he was in the second half last year or what he may have figured out after being demoted to the bullpen. At 31 years old I have more than enough evidence to tell me that this dog won’t hunt. Pivetta’s career ERA over 883.2 innings pitched is 4.86. If this isn’t enough to remind you why he was kicked out of the 2023 Red Sox rotation then you have bigger things than Pivetta’s pitching acumen to worry about. Many have been fooled by Pivetta before, not me. I know who he is. </p>
<p id="lg9rZW"><em> –Jake Devereaux</em></p>
<p id="XyZRtQ"><strong>Rafael Devers</strong></p>
<p id="4KjVLG">He’ll have another good, but not truly great, year at the plate, but his errors will again haunt us all. You might ask, if a player is typically below average, can it really be considered a disappointment if he continues to perform at that sub-par level? I will reply that, usually when a player sets a record it’s cause for celebration, but I predict Devers will break his own record of six consecutive years leading AL third basemen in errors—and I won’t be happy about it.</p>
<p id="TBk1NI"><em>— Maura McGurk</em></p>
<p id="72mzJO"><strong>Kenley Jansen</strong></p>
<p id="4LqteT">Jansen started camp very slowly with a balky back and got the “we’re running out of days for him to be ready” tag from Alex Cora last week. He seems to be getting the requisite amount of work in to be on the Opening Day roster but how “ready” will he truly be? Jansen, understandably, was vocal about ownership not giving this roster the help that they expected in the offseason, and as a pitcher who has been on perennial playoff teams for his entire career, how is he going to feel in June if this team underperforms for both years of his contract with the Red Sox? He’s also <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/03/18/sports/red-sox-pitching-injuries/?p1=StaffPage">voiced his displeasure</a> this spring in regards to additional shortening of the pitch clock entering 2024. I wrote early in the offseason that it <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/1/11/24034553/dont-trade-kenley-jansen-red-sox-rumors">would be a mistake</a> to trade the 36-year-old Kenley Jansen to fill other holes on the team but now seeing the finished product of this roster entering the season, I may have jumped the gun. </p>
<p id="NvwQno">—<em> Bob Osgood</em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="1gnHxQ">
<h3 id="20p8qd">Amongst the newcomers, whose City Connect jersey will we see the most around Fenway by Labor Day? </h3>
<ul>
<li id="gHLjrO"><strong>Ceddanne Rafaela</strong></li>
<li id="ks3y5n"><strong>Vaughn Grissom</strong></li>
<li id="uq3vo6"><strong>Tyler O’Neill </strong></li>
<li id="UaFyOM"><strong>Isaiah Campbell</strong></li>
<li id="OcXFjO"><strong>Wilyer Abreu</strong></li>
<li id="wCr7A4"><strong>Wow, that’s really it for newcomers, huh? Umm, ok, how about Trevor Story? He’s still kind of new.</strong></li>
</ul>
<p id="9VXGke"><strong>Rafaela</strong> is the easy choice here. And I’m taking the easy choice. If all these guys have a good April-July he’s the most dynamic and has the most impressive variety of skills.</p>
<p id="RivEyC">-<em>Mike Carlucci</em></p>
<p id="ixZmgK">Give me <strong>Abreu</strong> if not Rafaela. His swing is something to behold and I think he can become a fan favorite deeper down the lineup.</p>
<p id="xTvL2r"><em>— Jake Reiser</em></p>
<p id="q1H1tM">Isn’t <strong>Triston Casas</strong> still sort of new? I vote him. There’s two Boston player archetypes that I love, and one now plays outfield for the Yankees. The other one, if even playing on a niche Boston persona, should be a fan favorite here for years to come. </p>
<p id="hvXOIc"><em>– Dean Roussel</em></p>
<p id="Sqqxcb">I don’t know who wrote the list above, but it’s blatant <strong>Cooper Criswell</strong> erasure and I won’t stand for it. </p>
<p id="9PywYF"><em>— Jacob Roy</em></p>
<p id="iBrFjf"><strong>Rafaela</strong> is the right answer here, look, defense is sexy, yellow is sexy, ergo Rafaela is sexy. </p>
<p id="ycJBKF"><em>–Jake Devereaux</em></p>
<p id="DBhEeW"><strong>Rafaela</strong> is the fella who will get people to don the yella.</p>
<p id="42nMtE"><em>-Matthew Gross</em></p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Boston Red Sox v Texas Rangers" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/H8HVXcgebaaTZFuh35b6RdyJ_xA=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25359212/2107853248.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
<p id="K0yD5J">If you’re going to make an investment in a jersey, the player should have some flair and some staying power. I have a feeling by the end of April, <strong>Ceddanne Rafaela</strong> will have both of those things in this city after he makes five highlight-reel catches and holds his own offensively. </p>
<p id="dnMp1B"><em> — Bob Osgood</em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="PtCtYl">
<h3 id="y0uv43">In 10 years, the 2024 Red Sox season will be remembered for. . . </h3>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Boston Red Sox v Texas Rangers" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/KJcDDjMLNtAVR74PnQhExjCU9q0=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25359213/2105337509.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
<p id="b3zYM6"><strong>The Fan Apathy</strong></p>
<p id="OcEys2">For most of my life, being a Red Sox fan has been a tribal marker for New Englanders. Hating the Yankees, singing <em>Sweet Caroline, </em>and carving the Red Sox logo into your pumpkin during the playoffs were totems of personal identity, not mere fandom. Even people who didn’t know a DH from a PhD got swept up in the currents of Red Sox Nation — and it made the team fabulously wealthy. </p>
<p id="cI9Q9P">That dynamic has almost entirely collapsed. This collapse happened slowly, starting with the Mookie trade, and then suddenly over the last few months, as one PR disaster after another accompanied an offseason in which, inexplicably, the team decided to do almost nothing to improve upon last year’s roster. Now, most of my neighbors don’t talk about the Red Sox at all; when they do, it’s often with a measure of befuddlement in their voices, like the team is someone from their past they’ve lost track of. <em>The Red Sox? Oh yeah, I remember them. What happened to those guys? </em></p>
<p id="LDF6mG">It’s depressing, and it will be readily apparent all summer long. There will be swaths of empty seats through the early and late stages of the season; and even in the middle of July and August, the Sox will come up in casual conversation only after all the <a href="https://www.celticsblog.com">Celtics</a>, Bruins, and Patriots stuff has been exhausted. </p>
<p id="xZQwGj">All we can hope for at this point is that this is the nadir, and not the new normal. </p>
<p id="VByxfb"><em>— Dan Secatore</em></p>
<p id="XmpXTU"></p>
<p id="eIU6CJ"><strong>Lighting the beacons.</strong></p>
<div id="J7ZoYw"><div style="max-width: 1025px;"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.2061%;"><iframe src="https://cdn.iframe.ly/api/iframe?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgetyarn.io%2Fyarn-clip%2Ff3876f58-0b25-4d4c-bb3f-3381c83e861f%2Fgif%23Q1sa8eYx.copy&key=9ef4a209439e42bc59783ba959d50197" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; border: 0;" allowfullscreen=""></iframe></div></div></div>
<p id="ZDOkqL">The Red Sox haven’t had much to be excited about the last few seasons. But they have a few young guys joining the team to start the season. A few top prospects trying to knock on the door. Their first real young pitcher since...Jon Lester? Clay Buchholz? If we take the comments from ownership and the front office at face value (aside from Full Throttle) and the rumors of a big push for Yamamoto then 2024 <em>should</em> be the nadir or the first year of the upswing. That might not show up in the wins and losses depending on the youth movement and the success of that youth. But this team was close to contention the last two years and withheld aid because of a mythical “future.” </p>
<p id="0Wia1o">If Craig Breslow has the freedom to at least keep doing small moves and adding small dollars during the year they might now bottom out again. The pitching is an insane tightrope. But if they can hold on they might just surprise with 80+ wins. Rōki Sasaki is likely to be available this winter. There’s a chance (barely, after passing on all the free agents) to do the right thing in 2024 and not punt. If they do that then this will be looked at as the beginning of the next chapter in Red Sox baseball.</p>
<p id="r3FcdI">-<em>Mike Carlucci</em></p>
<p id="10zPG6"></p>
<p id="1TIwWd"><strong>The vilification of ownership</strong></p>
<p id="tg2Uq2">20 years ago, the thought seems almost unfathomable. Theo Epstein in tow, a new ownership group hungry to change the destiny of a franchise that had been plagued by a curse for 86 god damn long seasons. Truly bolstering the roster with Mark Bellhorn, a young Gabe Kapler, a true closer in Keith Foulke, a star front of the rotation pitcher in Curt Schilling–yes, that feels weird to type in 2024 but it’s facts back then–bringing in Terry Francona (best wishes in retirement, Tito!) to lead a group desperate to become something more than themselves and bring joy back to the city. </p>
<p id="pP2fdB">Today? It ties right back into Dan’s point above. A city KNOWN for being diehard about all its teams is apathetic about the Red Sox, one of its most storied franchises, and it’s all on the shoulders of John Henry and the rest of ownership. The lack of investment — when FSG/Red Bird snatch up other teams like the <a href="https://www.pensburgh.com">Pittsburgh Penguins</a>, <a href="https://liverpooloffside.sbnation.com">Liverpool FC</a>, and plans for more —and even the frustration of watching them pour money into at least one of these other clubs (I am a <a href="https://liverpooloffside.sbnation.com/">Liverpool</a> fan, so I’m thankful but conflicted seeing FSG spend a crap-load of money rebuilding the midfield with Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szobozlai, Wataru Endo and Ryan Gravenberch), and not spending on your hometown club. Their name is FENWAY Sports Group. Not “White Multimillionaire Sports Owners, Inc.” How the Red Sox aren’t first and foremost a priority, or at least that’s how it feels to me, is just baffling. </p>
<p id="WZLQFV">FSG did bring back Epstein in a larger role, and he will certainly have a hand in the Red Sox once again. Is that going to be enough to open their pockets and bring magic back to America’s Most Beloved Ballpark? Or are we going to watch this team sink lower than they already are and see the reputations of the group of leaders who created a baseball dynasty continue to swirl the drain? One of my favorite movie quotes of all time is <strong>“You either die a hero or you live long enough to become the villain.”</strong> FSG are becoming the villain, but there’s still time to change that: if they’re self-aware enough to recognize that.</p>
<p id="PfuSdy"><em>— Jake Reiser</em></p>
<p id="gcqGkS"></p>
<p id="Wk1T6G"><strong>The year Fenway faithful will not remember, whether by choice or alcohol consumption, unless, of course, you own a bar near the park. You’ll remember this year.</strong></p>
<p id="qtGUnf">I’ve talked all off-season and I’ll talk enough this entire year. I’m just keeping it that simple.</p>
<p id="PgKjhq"><em>— Dean Roussel</em></p>
<p id="GWt1Xb"></p>
<p id="4ossHq"><strong>Finding the next core</strong></p>
<p id="u1hJr8">By the end of 2024 we will know which players will be part of the next <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/world-series">World Series</a> team. Over the grind of 162 a player’s strengths and weaknesses get exposed, there is no hiding from the grind. Anyone can have a hot first half like Alex Verdugo did last year or a hot second half like Bobby Dalbec in 2021. What matters is how you play and, just as importantly, how you conduct yourself over 162. </p>
<p id="rViiGj">I can make some guesses about who will pass that test and be riding on the duck boats in the future, but I won’t. I will be watching and taking notes during this season as I decide which players I think the Sox should feel comfortable rolling with in the future. </p>
<p id="auihT6"><em>—Jake Devereaux</em></p>
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<p id="UB1YBl"><strong>“Full Throttle” </strong></p>
<p id="ANUn70">It’s the phrase that will define the 2024 Red Sox no matter what happens at this point. Either as a mocking gesture to the gaslighting of fans from ownership, or as a rallying cry to show respect for the roster that somehow went all out, defied the odds, and played their way into contention. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">A lot of creativity in the stands today <a href="https://t.co/j4yryHsiAn">pic.twitter.com/j4yryHsiAn</a></p>— Rob Bradford (@bradfo) <a href="https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/1769432652837179875?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 17, 2024</a>
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<p id="SCKUkX"><em>-Matthew Gross</em></p>
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<p id="xdIOAf"><strong>A half-empty park (except for road teams that travel well)</strong></p>
<p id="orHeiV">2024: The season that the Fenway crowd changed the lyrics from “Sweeeeet Car-o-line” to “Pleeeeease sell-the-team”. </p>
<p id="mwLPYB"><em>— Bob Osgood</em></p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/28/24112358/the-otm-staff-predicts-the-2024-red-sox-season-mlb-opening-dayDan Secatore2024-03-27T13:13:18-04:002024-03-27T13:13:18-04:00Know Thy Enemy: The New York Yankees
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<img alt="2024 New York Yankees Spring Training" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/3AQgumHEgKceRtqnuZ8n2TH0L7I=/0x0:4806x3204/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73236651/2023290654.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by New York Yankees/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Uggggggghhhh.</p> <h3 id="NXsEor">What’s this team’s deal?</h3>
<p id="sqeWZw">You know what this team’s deal is. They are the team you hate. They are the team you will always hate. In the future — long after the MLB owners have replaced the entire season with an AI simulation, thus finally achieving their dream of operating a baseball league without having to pay a single human being to play baseball — you will still hate the <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a>.</p>
<p id="rzvWAV">And they will deserve it. </p>
<p id="OfwNad">They <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/yankees-new-york-logo-origin">stole a logo designed to honor fallen police officers</a>. They implemented a ticket resale policy that is explicitly designed to <a href="https://www.nbcsports.com/mlb/news/yankees-coo-lonn-trost-gives-a-snobby-and-elitist-explanation-for-new-ticket-polcities">keep poor people segregated from the wealthy. </a>They erected a monument to an owner who paid private investigators to spy on his own players and was convicted of a felony. They are this<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/all-president-s-yankees-how-trump-s-decadeslong-affair-team-n1057516"> parasite’s favorite team. </a></p>
<p id="dWcXUu">They suck.</p>
<h3 id="46zpAN">How good are they?</h3>
<p id="vzYEdJ">This is where it gets confusing because — even though, as we established above, they suck — they are actually quite good. FanGraphs currently projects them to win a division-leading 87.4 games, while Vegas has them at 91.5 wins — both totals trail only the <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/">Houston Astros</a> in the American League. This is even accounting for the fact that the man who may currently be the best pitcher on Earth, Gerrit Cole, is a complete question mark right now.</p>
<p id="5QMKFz">Do the computers and the gamblers have it right? To be honest, I’m ill-equipped to answer this question. I am not capable of viewing the Yankees objectively. I <em>always </em>think the Yankees are worse than they turn out to be. I look at their lineup and see nothing but holes; I look at their defense and see nothing special; I look at their rotation and see a litany of future trips down to Alabama to see Dr. James Andrews. </p>
<p id="KLSY5F">So what do the projections see that I don’t? They really, really like the Yankees lineup. FanGraphs expects the Yankees to easily have the most productive outfield in all of baseball, which isn’t surprising given that it includes Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and the guy who was the first half MVP of the 2023 <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a>.</p>
<p id="eQu2n9">And while, outside of the outfield, there isn’t really any part of this Yankees team that looks elite, there’s plenty that looks good enough to make the team a winner. The floor for the middle infield combination of Anthony Volpe and Gleyber Torres sits at league average, with a ceiling that’s in the stars. And guys like Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu should provide veteran stability, if nothing else. If Giancarlo Stanton can bounce back at all, this lineup could be terrifying.</p>
<p id="zJgQ9d">But ultimately, they’ll only go as far as their pitching can take them. That’s where Red Sox fans should have some hope because, without Gerritt Cole, this rotation looks solid, but not scary. Carlos Rodon is a perpetual injury risk, while Nestor Cortes has had just two above-average seasons in his entire career. Clark Schmidt is pretty much the definition of a fourth starter. And while rookie Luis Gil has nasty stuff, he’s less proven than anyone in the Red Sox rotation. If you had to bet on one Yankees starter to be better than league average this year, Marcus Stroman is easily the safest pick; Stroman’s a fine pitcher, but not someone who you would expect to lead a rotation into the postseason. </p>
<h3 id="zrZmaa">Who’s their most likable player?</h3>
<div id="U7jTbW"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%;"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2aYBZw9EE6w?rel=0" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; border: 0;" allowfullscreen="" scrolling="no" allow="accelerometer; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share;"></iframe></div></div>
<p id="fUQoSh">This is an incredibly easy question to answer — but, for me at least, the answer sparks an existential crisis. </p>
<p id="55e9aj">I LOVE Juan Soto. His preternaturally advanced approach at the plate makes his at-bats fascinating to watch. He has fun while playing the game and isn’t afraid to celebrate this talents. He deserves to be the face of the game. </p>
<p id="udkFES">And now he has the chance to become just that. A young, charismatic Dominican star will be playing in the capital of the Dominican diaspora, which also just happens to be the capital of the baseball world. If I can remove myself from myself, I would have to conclude that this is a wonderful thing for both Juan Soto and Major League Baseball as a whole. But as a Sox fan — yikes. </p>
<p id="9Qzox5">I don’t know how I’m going to feel the first time I see him mash a majestic homer against the Sox while wearing pinstripes. And I’m scared. </p>
<h3 id="RnWE3g">Who’s their most hatable player? </h3>
<p id="1l3fEW">I hate you, Aaron Judge. I hate that you insisted you were just being super duper sportsmanshippy last year when it was <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2023/5/15/23724964/things-aaron-judge-was-probably-looking-at-instead-of-cheating-via-stealing-signs-from-blue-jays">obvious you were stealing signs</a>. I hate that the national TV announcers mention that your parents were teachers every single game, as if you’re the league’s only middle class hero while every other player in MLB is the scion of an Eastern European archduke. I hate that you have a gap in your front teeth that you haven’t fixed, as if the idea of vanity is beneath you. I have a gap in my front teeth and I hate it! You think you’re better than me, Aaron Juddge?!?!</p>
<h3 id="2NpMyg">Schedule against the Red Sox</h3>
<p id="UZhZS2">The Sox and Yankees don’t meet until June 14 this year. I’m terrified about what the standings are going to look like before first pitch that night.</p>
<p id="eHQ7fP">June 14-16: Yankees at Red Sox</p>
<p id="hlsLEw">July 5-7: Red Sox at Yankees</p>
<p id="xGaWUT">July 26-28: Yankees at Red Sox</p>
<p id="zuXngw">September 12-15: Red Sox at Yankees</p>
<h3 id="dQTViw">Season Prediction</h3>
<p id="hay2UJ">Maybe I’m Sideshow Bobbing myself and stepping on that rake one more time, but I’m just not buying the Yankees as the AL East champions this year. Not without Gerrit Cole, anyway. I do think, though, that it ends up being a close three-way race between the Jays and Orioles, and that the Yankes nab one of the wild cards. I’ll give them 89 wins. </p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/27/24108770/red-sox-mlb-preview-know-thy-enemy-the-new-york-yankeesDan Secatore2024-03-27T09:00:00-04:002024-03-27T09:00:00-04:00OTM Open Thread 3/27: It is Wednesday
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<img alt="Boston Red Sox v Texas Rangers" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/hQ8MbD7KYZWEpW-0WChYorav04Y=/0x0:4536x3024/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73235953/2107855722.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Baseball returns tomorrow (barely)</p> <p id="IAg13T">Happy Wednesday. </p>
<p id="qWd1Ex">Well, after months of speculation and countless MLB insiders projecting Jordan Montgomery to the <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> the last big name pitcher on the market has signed with the <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Arizona Diamondbacks</a>. For potentially a one-year deal.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Free-agent left-hander Jordan Montgomery in agreement with Diamondbacks, pending physical. Deal will pay him $25M this season, includes vesting player option for second year. First with agreement: <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffPassan?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@JeffPassan</a></p>— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1772787935987048458?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 27, 2024</a>
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<p id="8VK1sU">Is Montgomery a clear #1 ace-caliber pitcher? No. Did the Red Sox really let a <em>one year deal</em> pass them by when the starting rotation is, with the most optimistic upside included, merely fine? Yes. It’s stunning. Good thing trading Mookie gave the team so much financial flexibility. Well, hopefully the Breslow-Bailey Brain Trust really does have some secret sauce. The pitching was good during Spring Training. This, of course, does come with a tremendous asterisk as spring stats don’t really correspond to the regular season. Either way the front office has left the team to figure it out with what they have minus a halfhearted attempt to boost things with Lucas Giolito. </p>
<p id="Rzt7y5">Talk about what you want and be good to one another.</p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/27/24113372/otm-open-thread-3-27-it-is-wednesdayMike Carlucci