Over the Monster: All Posts by Phil NeufferBut Can He Pitch?https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/32934/otm-fv.jpg2024-03-24T07:47:57-04:00https://www.overthemonster.com/authors/phil-neuffer/rss2024-03-24T07:47:57-04:002024-03-24T07:47:57-04:002024 Positional Preview: Center Field
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<img alt="2024 Dominican Republic Series - Boston Red Sox v Tampa Bay Rays" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/C4JepJwNwOeKH5DlwIN19zahTv0=/0x0:3836x2557/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73229157/2099848707.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>After Jarren Duran had a breakout year in center in 2023, now it’s Ceddanne Rafaela’s turn. </p> <p id="jc6P5R"><em>Welcome to Over the Monster’s 2024 Positional Preview Series! As a part of our lead-up to Opening Day, we’ll do a deep dive into each positional group. Today we look at a position that will be primarily manned by a player who could be a star but who needs to improve at the plate to reach that potential. </em></p>
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<h2 id="KViBRd">The Starter - Ceddanne Rafaela</h2>
<p id="OHf70S">The <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> are betting on one of their top prospects to take over the starting role in center field and for good reason. Ceddanne Rafaela is a top 100 prospect with elite defensive acumen. Graded a 70/80 fielder by FanGraphs, Rafaela has the chops to play not just center field but shortstop, second base and the corner outfield spots if needed. Heck, if he can hit 85 mph on the radar gun, maybe the Red Sox should give him a spot in the rotation. In all likelihood, he will end up logging time in all of those spots this season (OK, maybe not on the mound), just as he did throughout his time in the minors and last year when he got his first cup of coffee at the MLB level. However, his primary role will be starting center fielder, which is great news for the Red Sox pitching staff. </p>
<p id="pwCcbc">Unfortunately, glovework alone won’t carry Rafaela to stardom or even solid starter status. Don’t get it twisted: an elite defender at a premium position can afford to be less than stellar at the plate, but the Red Sox would obviously like Rafaela to be more than a speedy glove-only contributor. In a mere 89 plate appearances in Boston last year, Rafaela produced just a 74 wRC+, often looking overmatched and impatient at the plate en route to a 31.5 percent strikeout rate and a measly 4.5 percent walk rate. The swing-and-miss frequency can certainly be attributed to Rafaela facing MLB pitching for the first time, but the paltry free pass numbers have been a common theme throughout Rafaela’s development and if he can’t improve, that will drastically limit his ceiling as a batter, particularly if the BABIP gods are cruel. </p>
<p id="lPGXsM">The good news is <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/19/24104027/the-spring-of-ceddanne-rafaela-red-sox-prospect-analysis">Rafaela has shown some improvement this spring</a>. As of writing this on Saturday morning, he is walking 7.3 percent of the time while posting a 21.8 percent strikeout rate in spring training. That walk percentage is still below average, but it is trending in the right direction. He’s also hit for a bit more power and posted a 132 wRC+. Of course, we’re talking about all of 55 plate appearances and we all know spring training statistics don’t mean a ton, but it’s better than the alternative. </p>
<p id="8u2Nm5">Getting Rafaela on base as often as possible could be a major difference maker for the Red Sox offense. In addition to his elite glove, Rafaela is a major threat on the base paths, meaning he can swipe bags and take extra bases to put pressure on opposing teams. If he can combine his speed and glove with an even average (let alone above average) hit tool, Rafaela could be in for a breakout season. </p>
<h2 id="I3QeAH">The Bench </h2>
<h3 id="yKKqgZ">Jarren Duran</h3>
<p id="WG1lgy">Speaking of breakout seasons, Duran, who was the Red Sox’s primary center fielder a year ago, had one of his own in 2023 despite a few injuries. Slashing .295/.346/.482, Duran wound up with a 120 wRC+ while stealing 24 bases, providing the kind of speed and on-base skills the Red Sox had been waiting for from the former top 100 prospect. There were still some red flags in Duran’s game, as he didn’t walk a ton and benefited from a ludicrous .381 BABIP, but his speed isn’t going anywhere just yet, so there is reason to believe he can at least maintain above average offensive performance. He’ll be shifting over to play one of the corners most days, but when Rafaela needs a day off or is needed at shortstop or second base, Duran is a more than adequate replacement. </p>
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<img alt="MLB: Spring Training-Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/J9CXFTQoRCn6YAthd-jH6uNi_Vc=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25351238/usa_today_22790220.jpg">
<cite>Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
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<h3 id="VwxH6t">Wilyer Abreu</h3>
<p id="vKGVNM">Abreu is better suited for a corner outfield spot, but he played some center field during his 28 games in Boston last year. The 24-year-old flashed some impressive work with the bat during that short stretch, slashing .316/.388/.474 with a 135 wRC+. He doesn’t project to be that effective in 2024, otherwise he’d be a starter, but he does have a relatively patient approach at the plate and is expected to hover around league average offensively. All together, Abreu doesn’t have the type of ceiling that Rafaela and Duran have, particularly in center, but he is a solid third option for the position. </p>
<h3 id="IsiOcF">Other Options</h3>
<p id="sgo104">Newcomer Tyler O’Neil, who came over in a trade with the Cardinals, could be tasked with some center field work in a pinch and super-sub Rob Refsnyder is another option if and when he’s able to return from a broken toe. </p>
<h2 id="UEX9JS">Minor League Depth</h2>
<p id="b48Vkt">Non-roster invitees like Dalton Guthrie and Mark Contreras could both end up being contributors at the MLB level if the Red Sox need more reinforcements for the outfield, but the the real future in center field will be Roman Anthony. Still a couple months from his 20th birthday, Anthony is the No. 1 prospect in the Red Sox’s organization and the No. 14 prospect in baseball overall, according to FanGraphs. He’s only gotten as high as Double-A during his short professional career, logging 44 plate appearances in Portland last year, but he produced an incredible 185 wRC+ in that time, mirroring his impressive production at the lower levels, and is clearly on the fast track to the majors. Even with an accelerated time line, he is probably still a year or two away from reaching the majors, unfortunately. Still, he’s the center fielder of the future (or another position if Rafaela reaches his potential). </p>
<h2 id="9Y5udE">Fangraphs Projections</h2>
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<p id="P9rRLE">ZiPS is a bit more optimistic about Rafaela’s 2024 season than Steamer, but both agree that he’ll likely provide somewhere between 15 and 20 home runs and steals while buoying his overall output in terms of WAR with his strong defensive acumen. Both projection systems also envision a below average offensive season from Duran, while the outlook for Abreu is a bit rosier. </p>
<h2 id="k8zdse">Divisional Ranking</h2>
<ol>
<li id="hKkDjj">Aaron Judge/Trent Grisham, <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">New York Yankees</a>
</li>
<li id="7WxiTl">Cedric Mullins, <a href="https://www.camdenchat.com/">Baltimore Orioles</a>
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<li id="YEH1XE">Kevin Kiermaier/Daulton Varsho, <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/">Toronto Blue Jays</a>
</li>
<li id="AxpS6k">Jose Siri/Richie Palacios, <a href="https://www.draysbay.com/">Tampa Bay Rays</a>
</li>
<li id="QyJ34h">Ceddane Rafaela, Boston Red Sox</li>
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<p id="xkW29I">Although most projection systems have Judge pegged to be a right fielder primarily, he is currently listed as the starting center fielder for the Yankees and that seems like his most likely destination for now, especially after the Juan Soto trade. With that said, Judge is a perennial MVP candidate, so if he’s the Yankees’ primary center fielder, he’s No. 1 with a bullet. If Grisham ends up getting the bulk of center field duty, these rankings shift dramatically. </p>
<p id="aIQ259">Mullins is the best “pure” center fielder in the AL East. He has had diminishing returns over the last two years since his six-win 2021 campaign, but he’s a relatively effective power/speed threat who plays a solid center field. </p>
<p id="XZZ7JV">Kiermaier and Varsho are both plus defenders for a team that boasts an outfield of players capable of handling the center field role on a regular basis. (Don’t forget about George Springer). However, Kiermaier played in 127 games in center last season and should be the everyday starter this year. He was actually slightly above league average offensively in 2023 (104 wRC+), but that’s about the limit of his offensive game. Still, his glovework is transcendent, so he maintains a relatively high floor. </p>
<p id="Bj1fKZ">Picking the final two spots in these rankings was a bit difficult. Although Rafaela could wind up being a Rookie of the Year candidate and shoot up these rankings by year end, until he can prove a consistent ability to hit at an above league average level, I can’t promote him over Siri, who smashed 25 home runs, posted a 106 wRC+ and recorded 2.7 fWAR in 2023. In many ways, Siri is the player Rafaela could end up being, as he also strikes out too much and walks rarely but makes up for it with speed, some power and exceptional defense. For now, that means Siri gets the No. 4 spot until Rafaela can match or exceed that profile. </p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/24/24109535/2024-positional-preview-center-field-ceddanne-rafaela-jarren-duran-anthony-romanPhil Neuffer2024-02-19T07:19:33-05:002024-02-19T07:19:33-05:00Will the Red Sox Bullpen Continue to Embrace the Cutter in 2024?
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<img alt="2024 Boston Red Sox Spring Training" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/6845EbFqnPZFQ4W9qaWOgHSlLXk=/0x0:5044x3363/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73149359/2018252598.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Fueled by Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Josh Winckowski, the Red Sox found success with cutters last year. Will that influence the approach this season? </p> <p id="QBb757">When the <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Boston Red Sox</a> hired Craig Breslow as chief baseball officer and Andrew Bailey as pitching coach last fall, there was a clear indication that improving the organization's pitching infrastructure would be a top priority. Breslow had been an assistant general manager and, more importantly to this discussion, vice president of pitching for the <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Chicago Cubs</a> before he was hired, while Bailey was the pitching coach for the <a href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/">San Francisco Giants</a> from 2020 to 2023. </p>
<p id="GWmm7B">For a team like the Red Sox that has struggled on the pitching side of the equation the last few years, bringing in a pitching-oriented executive to lead the show and then putting a new person in charge of pitching at the MLB level made all the sense in the world. The hires imply there will be some widespread changes to how the Red Sox approach pitching development, strategy and execution, both in the minors and at the big league level. </p>
<p id="OdZjUn">In the midst of overhauling the pitching apparatus for the Red Sox, the new brass will also need to evaluate if there are any developments worth salvaging from last year’s staff. Perhaps one up for consideration is the team’s increased usage of the cutter in 2023. </p>
<p id="GvKi5G">Following <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/i-have-seen-the-fastball-of-the-future-and-it-is-a-cutter/">a subtle but real trend</a> across MLB, the 2023 Red Sox threw a higher percentage of cutters (13.8 percent of pitches thrown) than any team besides the <a href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/">Milwaukee Brewers</a>, the previous employer of Corbin Burnes, a top-of-the-rotation starter who famously throws one of the best cutters in baseball and throws it a lot. Getting back to the Red Sox use of the offering, to put that 2023 number into context, in 2022, they tied for 19th among MLB teams in cutter usage at just 5.4 percent.</p>
<p id="8xJUeF">But was throwing more cutters actually effective? The answer is a resounding yes, especially relative to all other pitch types thrown by Red Sox pitchers last season. Not only did the Red Sox rank third in MLB in cutters runs above average (14.3), the team’s staff didn’t produce a positive mark with any other pitch, other than with curveballs, where they posted a negligible 0.4 runs above average. </p>
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<img alt="Houston Astros v Boston Red Sox" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/HQfifYlVHfSdrjbsP-lgKeqbu_I=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25292641/1650683430.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Paul Rutherford/Getty Images</cite>
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<p id="J2PzVR">Looking beyond the entire staff reveals that the Red Sox’s embrace of the cutter was not shared by all hurlers. Instead, it was a trend mostly seen in the bullpen. There is an obvious culprit for that, of course. When the Red Sox signed Kenley Jansen to be their full-time closer prior to the 2023 season, there was always going to be an uptick in cutter usage. Since reaching the big leagues in 2010, Jansen’s cutter has been his go-to weapon, as he’s thrown it more than 50 percent of the time in every season of his career, and more than 75 percent of the time in all but four seasons. </p>
<p id="nFQTTY">Interestingly, Jansen’s cutter usage had started to dip ever so slightly before 2023. Remember those four seasons he didn’t throw it 75 percent of the time? That stretch lasted from 2019 to 2022, with a low-water mark of 58 percent in 2021 as he continued to lean on a sinker more frequently. The cutter was still his bread and butter, there’s no argument there, but in 2023, Jansen threw the pitch more than he had since 2018, while drastically cutting down (pardon the pun) on his sinker usage. It was a good decision to go in that direction, with Jansen earning an All-Star nod last year while his cutter was his only pitch with a positive run value. (It was in 2022 as well). </p>
<p id="FDIE8R">But the Red Sox sudden volume and quality of cutters wasn’t just a Jansen-orchestrated phenomenon, although it was very much a bullpen-induced one. Chris Martin and Josh Winckowski, the two most utilized relievers on the Red Sox in 2023, also leaned on the cutter and to a greater degree than in past years. Martin, in his first season in Boston, threw his cutter 34.5 percent of the time, marking a career-high for the now 37-year-old veteran and tying it with his four-seam fastball as his most favored offering. Meanwhile, Winckowski bumped his cutter usage up to 35.5 percent in 2023 from his rookie season in 2022, putting it a fraction below his sinker as his weapon of choice. And just as Jansen had great success with his cutter, so did Martin and Winckowski, with Martin’s earning a +11 run value and Winckowski notching a +7 run value with his, according to Baseball Savant. If you’re wondering, those were both the highest marks of any of their respective pitches, In fact, Winckowski’s cutter drastically outperformed his sinker, which yielded a -4 run value. </p>
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<img alt="2024 Boston Red Sox Spring Training" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/7PHDM7fuqEX2olb7p7_dMcPvzsE=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25292642/2018252581.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images</cite>
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<p id="CD8COf">Outside of the bullpen, the cutter didn’t make as large an impact, but in the rotation, Kutter Crawford (who made relief appearances as well) also contributed a bit to the surge, although it’s unclear if he is contractually obligated to do so because of his name. The trend with Crawford was a little less pronounced, however, as his cutter has been his second-most used pitch in every year he’s been in the bigs, hovering between 26 and 30 percent and sitting at 28.3 percent last season. </p>
<p id="uuq8gm">So that was all about last year. What about 2024? Are there any indicators that the cutter revolution will spread beyond the right arms of Jansen, Martin, Winckowski and Crawford? </p>
<p id="LzfVcK">Starting on the personnel side, in what has been an offseason filled with a lot of small moves and very little splash, the Red Sox haven’t added a bunch of pitchers who throw cutters. Isaiah Campbell, acquired in a trade with the <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/">Seattle Mariners</a>, throws one pretty regularly and is currently penciled into a bullpen spot on FanGraphs’ depth chart projection, but <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/kenley-jansen-still-with-red-sox-despite-trade-rumors">Jansen might also be traded before too long</a>, so if the Red Sox are trying to lean more heavily into the cutter, they would need to do so by teaching others to throw it. </p>
<p id="YL1zUH">Turning to pitching philosophy, I won’t pretend to know what Breslow and Bailey think, but based on the production of their previous teams, it’s difficult to ascertain anything conclusive. The Cubs were tied for fifth in cutter usage last season, but the Giants were dead last. That’s not to say Bailey will tell pitchers not to throw the cutter at all cost or that he’ll force Martin and Winckowski to dispatch with a pitch that was successful, but it doesn’t really support the notion that the organization will be all in on developing cutter-throwing hurlers. </p>
<p id="6QrujS">We are going to learn a lot about how the Red Sox’s new leadership approaches pitching in the next few weeks. Obviously, the plan will not be to just build the entire staff out of cutters (or Kutters). However, as Breslow and company overhaul the pitching staff, they might consider holding on to one of the few things that worked in 2023. </p>
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<p id="XNFHPv"><em>All stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.</em></p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/2/19/24076476/boston-red-sox-2024-preview-bullpen-kenley-jansen-chris-martin-and-josh-winckowski-craig-breslowPhil Neuffer2024-01-23T07:18:42-05:002024-01-23T07:18:42-05:00Smash or Pass: Jorge Soler
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<img alt="Washington Nationals v Miami Marlins" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/1I552bDp9vD4CCBkAqfxd33p9YM=/0x0:3277x2185/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73077638/1640313094.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Even though Jorge Soler seems to be another free agent the Red Sox will lose out on based on recent reports, let’s look at his potential fit anyway. </p> <p id="m3VKR3"><em>Welcome back to </em><a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/red-sox-offseason-hot-stove-analysis-free-agents-trades-smash-or-pass"><em><strong>Smash or Pass</strong></em></a><em>, an offseason series in which we examine various free agents and trade targets to determine whether they make sense for the </em><a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/"><em><strong>Red Sox</strong></em></a><em>. Today, we’re taking a look at someone a lot of people figured would already be on the </em><a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/"><em>Red Sox</em></a><em> by now.</em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="oTfByw">
<h3 id="7bqxog">Who is he and where does he come from?</h3>
<p id="1FSf8p">Jorge Soler is a 31-year-old designated hitter who can also play a little bit of outfield, although he his best known for smashing dingers into the next dimension. Originally from Cuba, Soler has been in the majors since 2014 when he came up with the <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Chicago Cubs</a>. He has since played for the <a href="https://www.royalsreview.com/">Kansas City Royals</a>, the <a href="https://www.batterypower.com/">Atlanta Braves</a> (with whom he won a <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/world-series">World Series</a> title) and, most recently, the Miami Marlins. </p>
<h3 id="fi9U0u">Is he any good? </h3>
<p id="vbfScH">Soler is very good at one thing: hitting the ball hard and hitting it far. He launched 36 long balls last year with Miami and ranked in the 91st percentile in barrel rate among MLB hitters, earning himself a spot on the National League All-Star team in the process. He also ranked 12th among qualified hitters in isolated power (ISO) at a mark of .262, just edging out National League MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. Buoyed by such power and his consistently solid work in taking free passes (career 10.5 percent walk rate), Soler produced a .250/.341/.512 slash line and a 126 wRC+ in 2023. </p>
<p id="u0r0Ee">Soler’s power has been relatively consistent over the last five seasons. After meandering a bit and struggling to log consistent playing time from 2014 to 2018, in 2019, he broke out to wallop 48 home runs, and although he hasn’t reached those heights since, from 2019 to 2023, he ranked 17th in ISO and tied for the 16th-most home runs in MLB. It’s important to note that includes the 13 he hit in 2021 when he played in only 72 games due to multiple IL stints. </p>
<p id="l5P2Qa">Now that we’ve established Soler’s bona fides as a slugger, you’re probably expecting a catch, and there are a few. From an offensive perspective, he is a bit one-dimensional as a hitter. The power is great and he does a solid job with drawing walks, but even with those skills, he’s not especially great at getting on base overall, meaning his success is exceptionally reliant on his ability to put the ball over the fence. For example, in 2021, he hit a respectable but not overly impressive 27 home runs and walked 11.1 percent of the time in 602 plate appearances split between the Royals and Braves. However, his final slash line of .223/.316/.432 equated to an exactly league average offensive profile by wRC+. (Although his run with Atlanta in both the regular season and playoffs was much better that year, ultimately netting him the World Series MVP crown). Such a reliance on homers makes Soler a bit streaky, as he produced marks of 107, 100 and 95 in wRC+ in the three seasons preceding his strong 2023. In fairness, one of those was the shortened 2020 season and another was that 2021 campaign we just talked about. Still, given those peaks and valleys, Soler certainly is an imperfect hitter. </p>
<p id="sRbXyq">Additionally, as you might expect for a player who is primarily a DH, Soler is a liability in the field. Despite being 26 percent better than league average offensively last season, he produced 1.9 fWAR, in no small part because of his defensive shortcomings when he did play in the field. In fairness, that wasn’t all that often, as the Marlins only played him in the field in 31 games, yet his defense still dragged him down quite a bit. In fact, only he, Kyle Schwarber of the <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Philadelphia Phillies</a> and Spencer Torkelson of the <a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/">Detroit Tigers</a> hit at least 30 home runs last year and yielded less than 2.0 fWAR. </p>
<p id="P7x8I1">Poor glovework has been part of Soler’s profile for years, however, and for context, a player is usually considered a solid everyday player at 2.0 fWAR. A solid everyday player who might flirt with 50 home runs is certainly someone to take a look at and given Soler’s clear move to DH, defensive responsibilities likely won’t feature heavily in his future assignments. </p>
<h3 id="HJVdsX">TL;dr, just give me his 2023 stats.</h3>
<p id="ryj6hv">137 G, 580 PA, .250/.341/.512, 36 HR, 77 R, 75 RBI, 11.4% BB rate. 24.3% K rate, 126 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR</p>
<h3 id="eFprVc">Why would he be a good fit for the Red Sox?</h3>
<p id="3nIxgq">As recently as a couple weeks ago, it <a href="https://twitter.com/hgomez27/status/1744208914529361929">seemed like the Red Sox thought </a>he would definitely be a good fit. With Justin Turner and Adam Duvall still free agents and Teoscar Hernández, whom the Red Sox were interested in, a Los Angeles Dodger, the Red Sox have plenty of DH at-bats to hand out and Soler’s spectacular power would play nicely in the middle of the lineup, particularly at Fenway Park. Adding fuel to the fire: The Red Sox only hit 182 home runs as a team last year, ranking 18th in baseball. Soler can’t make them a power hitting team on his own (especially since Turner and Duvall contributed 44 combined last year), but he could move them in the right direction. </p>
<h3 id="64du3e">Why would he not be a good fit for the Red Sox? </h3>
<p id="nui0O8">The Red Sox greatest needs are on the pitching side of the equation and unless Soler has been hiding a sweeper, he obviously doesn’t help address those concerns. In addition, Soler makes for an odd fit for a Red Sox team that has struggled defensively, especially in the outfield, as he would likely force them to continue putting Masataka Yoshida in left field. Given Tom Werner’s <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/1/22/24045876/tom-werner-thinks-youre-a-moron-red-sox-winter-weekend-free-agent-payroll-rumors#:~:text=Werner%E2%80%99s%20point%20about%20defense%20is%20especially%20fascinating%20to%20me%2C%20considering%20what%20else%20he%20mentioned%20to%20Tom%20Caron%20during%20Winter%20Weekend.">sudden belief that all that is holding the Red Sox back is defense</a> and not, say, a lackluster lineup and a shrug emoji masquerading as a starting rotation, Soler would seemingly no longer be a serious target for the Red Sox. That is doubly true when considering <a href="https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/01/red-soxs-sam-kennedy-2024-payroll-expected-to-be-lower-than-it-was-in-2023.html">Sam Kennedy’s recent comments about the Red Sox’s shrinking payroll</a>. </p>
<h3 id="klpXVy">What would he cost?</h3>
<p id="XV8ttG">When it put out its annual free agent ranking earlier in the offseason, MLB Trade Rumors projected that Soler would get a deal worth $45 million over three years. The Red Sox reportedly offered Hernández $28 million over two years, so if the Red Sox are still not willing to add a third year for a potential starting DH, that could be a stumbling block if Soler wants something more long-term. </p>
<h3 id="4aoZrb">Show me a cool highlight.</h3>
<p id="KQvnwS">The announcers claim this ball landed, but I don’t believe it. </p>
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<h3 id="NCe6cs">Smash or pass? </h3>
<p id="5g4afC">We may be asking this from the wrong perspective since the momentum has clearly <a href="https://nypost.com/2024/01/18/sports/astros-emerging-as-possible-josh-hader-fit-in-mlb-free-agency/">shifted away from the Red Sox</a> in terms of where Soler may end up. Soler may have played Smash or Pass about the Red Sox himself and pressed the pass button. Of course, there’s another potential explanation: The Red Sox are just waiting him out. (Thanks to OTM editor Dan Secatore for that thought).Taking out where they stand in Soler’s estimation currently, Soler would be a good signing for the Red Sox. The offense was mid last year and that was with Turner and Duvall turning in surprisingly strong seasons. They’ll need more offensive oomph to compete and given how lefty-heavy the Red Sox are, particularly at the top of the lineup, as long as he can keep the power going, Soler would fit in beautifully and provide much needed slugging and balance. Smash. </p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/1/23/24047172/smash-or-pass-red-sox-free-agent-rumors-analysis-jorge-soler-boston-red-soxPhil Neuffer2023-11-27T07:48:28-05:002023-11-27T07:48:28-05:002023 In Review: Brayan Bello Proved Himself
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<img alt="Detroit Tigers v Boston Red Sox" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/8026KF-Lb1h65pvssX2kVs3EtUY=/2x0:3982x2653/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72905263/1612969124.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Gaelen Morse/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>At just 24, Brayan Bello was a consistent anchor in the Red Sox rotation and one of the best groundball artists in the game. The Red Sox hope that’s just the beginning. </p> <h2 id="zGdplg"><strong>2023 In One Sentence</strong></h2>
<p id="HHYA1T">In his first full season in the <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> rotation, Brayan Bello more than held his own, producing a slightly above average campaign (depending on your metric of choice) powered by a stellar changeup, an elite groundball rate, and an ace-like run in May and June. </p>
<h2 id="w7dYrX"><strong>The Positives</strong></h2>
<p id="eNzXvb">When the Red Sox finished off a 4-2 victory over the eventual <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/world-series">World Series</a> champion <a href="https://www.lonestarball.com/">Texas Rangers</a> on July 5 of this past season, it marked the high-water mark of Brayan Bello’s 2023 campaign. He spun seven solid innings to earn the victory, capping off a run of five straight games in which he pitched into the seventh inning while allowing two earned runs or fewer. With an ERA at 3.04, a FIP of 3.74 and his last bad start two months in the past, Bello was suddenly the ace of Boston’s pitching staff. </p>
<p id="4QBt81">While the long and grueling season eventually took its toll and Bello’s production wavered some, he still managed to produce a relatively solid year overall, netting a 4.24 ERA and 4.54 FIP while pitching more innings than any Red Sox hurler. His ERA- of 93 equates to a campaign that was seven percent better than league average, although his FIP- went the opposite way (105, five percent worse than average), but despite those discrepancies, there was a lot to like about Bello’s 2023 season, such as his slashing of his double-digit walk rate from 2022 down to a solid 6.7 percent. </p>
<p id="Enj0dp">Fewer walks were certainly a major ingredient in Bello’s success, but the true standout skills he displayed in 2023 were his ability to induce groundballs and make his changeup and sinker dart and dance. Among pitchers with at least 150 innings, Bello ranked third in groundball rate (56.2 percent) in no small part because of the effectiveness of his sinker, which ranked 14th among pitchers with at least 150 innings last season in runs above average, according to Statcast by way of Fangraphs. But Bello’s sinker wasn’t his most effective weapon. That honor belonged to his changeup. Only San Francisco’s Logan Webb, Arizona’s Merrill Kelly and San Diego’s Blake Snell (who won the NL Cy Young Award) had more valuable changeups based on runs above average, and although Bello threw his sinker more than any other offering, his changeup was his second-most utilized pitch, carrying his more mundane secondary stuff in earning him a spot in the 95th percentile in MLB in offspeed run value, according to Baseball Savant. </p>
<p id="pqYVvS">The groundballs and changeups were the above-the-fold highlights for Bello, but there were some other promising developments that will need to prove out over larger samples. For example, Bello was really great in big spots, especially for such a young pitcher, posting a 2.83 FIP and 2.67 xFIP in high leverage situations, albeit across all of 9.1 such innings. It’s impossible to make any definitive statement about such a meager amount of data, but it bears monitoring going forward. </p>
<h2 id="EpveiE"><strong>The Negatives</strong></h2>
<p id="NSNmMj">Given that Bello’s overall body of work hovered around average for the year based on park-adjusted metrics, there were obviously some negatives counteracting all the positives on his resume. </p>
<p id="22nSpT">For starters, Bello was not much of a strikeout artist. Now, that isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but in an era where strikeouts are more coveted than anything for a pitcher, his 19.8 percent mark was less than ideal, especially given Boston’s lackluster defensive work. The low strikeout rate, which was marred by a low whiff rate and mediocre chase rate, might not look as jarring if Bello had never shown a talent for striking batters out, but he punched out more than 30 percent of those he faced across three levels in the minors in 2021 and 2022, so it’s not entirely outside of his skill set. Granted, striking out batters in Single-A, Double-A and even Triple-A is not the same as doing so at the MLB level, especially right away, but the Red Sox would certainly like a few more Ks from Bello in the future. </p>
<p id="EXKbtm">Getting more swings and misses would be useful because as much as Bello got the ball on the ground a ton, when he didn’t, opposing batters tended to tee off. Despite a roughly league average barrel rate, Bello’ s hard hit rate ranked in the 13th percentile in MLB, according to Baseball Savant, and too often, those hard hit balls ended up over the fence, with Bello’s home run to flyball ratio sitting at a staggering 17.1 percent, the fifth-highest mark among pitchers with at least 150 innings pitched in 2023. </p>
<p id="vEpk3p">In terms of pitch mix, Bello’s arsenal lost quite a bit of pop after his sinker and changeup, with his four-seam fastball, slider and rarely used cutter all grading out as below average offerings. </p>
<h2 id="RlDyJk"><strong>Best Game Or Moment</strong></h2>
<p id="d403ia">If you can master the <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">New York Yankees</a> as a Red Sox pitcher, it almost doesn’t matter what you do the rest of the season. Bello faced the Yankees three times in 2023 and befuddled them in each instance, but the crown jewel performance came on June 18 when he struck out eight batters over seven one-run innings to lead the Red Sox to a 4-1 victory. </p>
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<h2 id="nAHxK4"><strong>The Big Question/2024 and Beyond</strong></h2>
<p id="BeNENa">Can Bello take another step forward? He was an average starter with lots of upside and a dominant two-month stretch during his first full season in 2023. With Boston’s lack of success developing impact starting pitchers in recent history, that’s an unmitigated success. What Bello has to do now is take it to the next level. Strike out more batters. Limit home runs a bit more. Round out a more effective pitch mix. Successfully achieving and sustaining those developments will dictate whether Bello is someone who can anchor a rotation or someone who can just eat innings every fifth day. Of course, at just 24 years old (he’ll turn 25 during the 2024 season), Bello has plenty of time to evolve as a pitcher, so those improvements may manifest over more than just this offseason. For 2024, just improving in some areas of weakness and repeating what he did well in 2023 might be enough. </p>
<p id="hlN53P">Looking more long term, Bello is still two years away from arbitration, so there is not a huge rush for the Red Sox to extend him. However, if the Red Sox believe in his potential like it seems they do given his quick ascent to the MLB level, an extension could be a possibility within the next year. Rumors to that end <a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/news/red-sox-interested-in-giving-rising-star-brayan-bello-contract-extension-scott7">already started swirling</a> over the summer, but with Craig Breslow only just taking over as chief baseball officer, the path to such a deal is a bit murkier, at least until we see how Breslow operates. Even without an extension, Bello did more than enough last season to earn himself a permanent spot in the Red Sox rotation for quite a while. If his performance last season is just the start, that’s very good news. </p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2023/11/27/23957816/2023-boston-red-sox-in-review-brayan-bello-analysisPhil Neuffer2023-11-01T09:36:06-04:002023-11-01T09:36:06-04:00Smash or Pass: Dylan Cease
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<figcaption>Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>What would it take to make Cease trade in his pale hose for some red ones? </p> <p id="ZXls9u"><em>Welcome to </em>Smash or Pass, <em>a new offseason series in which we’ll examine various free agents and trade targets to determine whether they make sense for the </em><a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/"><em>Red Sox</em></a><em>. Today, we’re discussing </em><a href="https://www.southsidesox.com/"><em>Chicago White Sox</em></a><em> starting pitcher Dylan Cease.</em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="GxhHYa">
<h3 id="lGPSVf">Who is he and where does he come from?</h3>
<p id="HWpSMo">He’s a 27-year-old right-handed starting pitcher with the Chicago White Sox. He was drafted out of Milton High School in Milton, Georgia, in the sixth round of the 2014 draft and made his MLB debut in 2019. Entering that season, he was ranked the 58th best prospect in baseball by FanGraphs. </p>
<h3 id="TtWRkS">Is he any good?</h3>
<p id="gvKijm">Although Cease made his MLB debut in 2019, he didn’t really make a name for himself at the big league level until his breakout season in 2021. He started in 32 games that year and struck out an astonishing 31.9 percent of the batters he faced while posting a 3.91 ERA, 3.41 FIP and 112 ERA+. He followed that up with an even better campaign in 2022, finishing the year with a 2.20 ERA, 3.10 FIP and 180 ERA+ over 32 starts and 184 innings. He nearly snagged the AL Cy Young Award for his efforts (and very well could have) but ended up coming in second to Justin Verlander of the <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/">Houston Astros</a>. </p>
<p id="IitTlg">Expectations were high for Cease entering 2023, but he stumbled a bit, losing some velocity on his fastball and some notches on his strikeout rate, ultimately netting out with a 4.58 ERA, 3.72 FIP and 97 ERA+ (under 100 is below average). </p>
<p id="Empyxu">A major culprit of his relative undoing in 2023 had been lurking below the surface even while he dominated in 2021 and 2022, as Cease has a tendency to struggle with his control. Since 2021, he has the seventh-highest walk rate among qualified pitchers and he’s also led the AL in wild pitches twice in the last three years (including an MLB-high 14 in 2023). Those control issues didn’t sink him in 2021 or 2022 (even though he walked an MLB-high 78 batters in the latter year), but he couldn’t outrun those demons in 2023. In addition, Cease threw his fastball a full mile per hour slower than in 2022 and batters took advantage, with Cease’s fastball grading out with a -3 run value, according to Baseball Savant. </p>
<p id="4w4V59">Despite the very concerning regression in 2023, there were still things to like about his performance. For starters, although he gave up too much hard contact, he actually had an identical barrel rate compared with his near Cy Young 2022 season. In addition, despite a drop in his strikeout rate, he still ranked among the top 10 qualified pitchers in the statistic, and while his fastball lost some juice, his slider remained electric. Speaking of that slider, perplexingly, despite finding incredible success using the offering as his most utilized pitch in 2022, Cease threw his slider less in 2023 (38.6 percent of his pitches) compared with 2022 (42.9 percent), opting to lean more on his fastball like he had from 2019 to 2021. </p>
<p id="AhbCAz">Overall, even with some regression last season, since emerging in 2021, Cease has accumulated the eighth most fWAR among qualified pitchers (12.6), putting him just a tick behind 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara. He’s also been incredibly durable, making at least 32 starts in three-straight seasons, so even when he’s not at his best, he’s still a reliable starter any team could plug into its rotation. If he can finally harness a bit more control and correct some of his issues from last year, his ceiling is exceptionally high.</p>
<h3 id="Lzom0z">Tl;dr, just give me his 2023 stats.</h3>
<p id="jBgJJ1">33 starts, 177 IP, 27.3 percent K rate, 10.1 percent BB rate, 4.58 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 97 ERA+</p>
<h3 id="5ShHRT">Why would he be a good fit for the 2024 Red Sox?</h3>
<p id="PFnGTF">Did you know the Red Sox did not have a single starting pitcher qualify for the ERA title last season? Not a one. And don’t get any ideas about the rotation being better than the sum of its parts. With respect to the solid years of Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford and brief glimpses of greatness from veterans like Chris Sale, James Paxton and Nick Pivetta, the Red Sox lacked consistently strong starting pitching in 2023, and they also had their lack of depth exposed when guys got injured. They tied with the <a href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/">San Francisco Giants</a> and <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Los Angeles Dodgers</a> for 21st in starting pitching fWAR, and the Dodgers were so desperate to mend the myriad holes in their rotation that they famously traded for Lance Lynn and gave him starting innings in the postseason. </p>
<p id="ANZ8Hq">The long and short of it is the Red Sox need high upside, durable starting pitching and that’s just what Cease can deliver. He’d be a perfect fit for this team. </p>
<h3 id="PlVocI">Why would he not be a good fit for the 2024 Red Sox?</h3>
<p id="GL0VqI">If you think Cease’s regression in 2023 is a sign of things to come and his erratic control can’t be improved (or at least forgiven), then he’s likely not worth the trade cost (more on that shortly), even if the Red Sox need guys to eat innings. </p>
<h3 id="sYfMI7">Is he available?</h3>
<p id="S8ZWpG">Cease’s name was bandied about at the trade deadline this past summer and <a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10084583-mlb-trade-rumors-white-sox-listening-on-dylan-cease-luis-robert-jr-entire-roster">the White Sox weren’t hanging up the phone immediately</a> on teams. While a deal ultimately failed to come to fruition, coming off a 61-101 season and with a new GM in place, the White Sox aren’t exactly in a better position now, so they may still be open to entertaining a discussion. However, as Tim Dierkes at MLB Trade Rumors pointed out in his offseason preview for the White Sox, <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/offseason-outlook-chicago-white-sox-13.html">the White Sox seem more interested in “a quick turnaround”</a> rather than an outright reset, making Cease’s availability more unlikely. </p>
<h3 id="v2Q3ve">What will he cost?</h3>
<p id="9dOfC2">Regardless of whether Cease is actually available, the White Sox will demand a hefty return for their young flamethrower. Cease is going to enter his age-28 season next year and despite some backsliding last season, he has shown he can be among the best pitchers in the league, not just the best on a given roster. He has two more years of arbitration before he’ll hit the open market, so the White Sox also don’t have their backs against the wall here, either, especially if they can get good again quickly. It’s more likely that Cease would be traded next winter if 2024 goes poorly, forcing the White Sox to decide if they are actually just a piece or two away from contention or in a need of the rebuild they currently want to avoid. </p>
<p id="KLatFa">But we’re not going into next winter, are we? So let’s take a stab at answering the question at the top of this section. My guess is the White Sox wouldn’t even consider a package that doesn’t include at least two or three of the Red Sox’s top prospects, meaning guys like Marcelo Mayer, Ceddanne Rafaela and Miguel Bleis could all be discussed, and that’s probably just where negotiations start. Bottom line: The Red Sox would have to give up a large chunk of the prospect talent they’ve been building of late to get Cease to change the color of his sox. </p>
<p id="5zwp5V">Aside from the trade cost, the Red Sox would also need to consider Cease’s long-term future. While they might not need to get an extension brewing the second the trade goes through <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2023/10/23/23926462/red-sox-smash-or-pass-corbin-burnes-trade-analysis">like they might if they dealt for Corbin Burnes</a>, if they trade for Cease, the Red Sox would have to start that process in the near future. Otherwise they’d risk giving up a king’s ransom in prospects only to watch him sign somewhere else in two years. </p>
<h3 id="nGSBik">Show me a cool highlight.</h3>
<div id="IX3otF">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Dylan Cease, 98mph Fastball and 81mph Knuckle Curve (home plate views).<br><br>Hitting is hard. <a href="https://t.co/esqgYkNagU">pic.twitter.com/esqgYkNagU</a></p>— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) <a href="https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1641597867570737154?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 31, 2023</a>
</blockquote>
<script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<p id="fdGeZW">If Yordan Álvarez has trouble hitting Cease, then what chance does anyone else have? </p>
<h3 id="pGRJks">Smash or pass?</h3>
<p id="sX6ptX">If we were having this discussion a year ago, I would be advising that the Red Sox do whatever it takes to land Cease. You want Marcelo Mayer? Done. Triston Casas? All yours. Unfortunately, as it stands now, I think they should be more cautious but still actively pursuing Cease if the White Sox are actually entertaining offers. Despite the red flags, there are very few guys in the league that have the stuff to reach the heights Cease did in 2022, and with respect to Bello, the Red Sox don’t have anyone close in their system right now. Plus, let’s remember, even in a down year, Cease still would have easily been the best starter on Boston’s roster last year. As he showed in 2021 and 2022, he can be so much more than that as well. </p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2023/11/1/23939192/boston-red-sox-trade-target-dylan-cease-trade-analysisPhil Neuffer2023-10-05T05:00:00-04:002023-10-05T05:00:00-04:00Red Sox Player Power Rankings: The 2023 Finale
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<img alt="Boston Red Sox v Houston Astros" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Ve7-1CkZT0QravNgvuiyrohBeOo=/0x0:2942x1961/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72723131/1635034397.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Now that the 2023 campaign is over, it’s time for the season finale of our player power rankings. </p> <p id="dYBjaf">There is no denying that the 2023 season was a largely difficult one for the <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> and their fans. Although they occasionally looked feisty, this was a team with a low ceiling and it finished that way, with the Sox winding up in the AL East basement for the third time in the last four years. </p>
<p id="Cl07QE">Now that the 2023 campaign is in the books, it’s time for one last edition of our monthly player power rankings. For most renditions this season, we’ve generally used performance over the previous month as the primary means of evaluation, but since this is the final edition for 2023, these rankings will be a more holistic look at the season, with no single month’s performance, including September, tipping the scales more than any other. With that in mind, we’ll still be using a fairly generous playing time threshold for inclusion: Players on the 40-man roster who logged at least 30 plate appearances or 10 innings pitched, or who appeared in a game in September, are all included. Now let’s get out of this preamble and get to the rankings. </p>
<p id="FHPdnE"><em>Editor’s Note: The previous rankings included 34 players. </em></p>
<h4 id="RhBNBi">40. Kaleb Ort (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="MAxRCa">Ort was a workhouse for the bullpen in April, but his production never really lived up to such a role, so he ended up ping ponging back and forth between the farm and Boston before suffering an elbow injury in July that he only began rehabbing from in mid-September.</p>
<h4 id="P8AS8g">39. Bobby Dalbec (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
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<img alt="MiLB: JUL 7 International League - Syracuse Mets at Worcester Red Sox" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/WjBJI1xdj9Pa-UzoI8Ok2omOXU0=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24978532/1530100047.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Erica Denhoff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</cite>
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<p id="83qrY4">After amassing a little more than 800 plate appearances across 2021 and 2022, Dalbec’s role at the big league level was drastically reduced in 2023. He barely played for much of the season, appearing in only 10 games before mid-September (and none across July and August). Many of the same issues that have plagued him previously were present this year, particularly his incredibly high strikeout rate, which rocketed up to 52.9 percent, albeit in a smaller sample. At one point, Dalbec looked like a potential member of the Red Sox’s future core, but his limited use this year indicates the organization is going in a different direction. </p>
<h4 id="bdbhAB">38. David Hamilton (Previous Rank: 29)</h4>
<p id="pzDV1Z">Hamilton was one of many players to get a shot at shoring up the middle infield and like many of his peers, he didn’t make anyone forget Xander Bogaerts was gone or that Trevor Story was injured. In fairness, the 26-year-old only got 39 plate appearances, but his 25 wRC+ and defensive struggles showed he has some development left to complete. </p>
<h4 id="ZuxTG4">37. Corey Kluber (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="KifeHe">Kluber was signed to help shore up the Red Sox’s rotation, but his 2023 season was just one long disaster, as he he posted a 6.57 FIP in nine starts before being demoted to the bullpen near the end of May. The move didn’t help, with Kluber’s FIP ballooning to 8.81 as a reliever before a shoulder injury ended his season. The Red Sox have an $11 million club option on Kluber for 2024, but there’s not much reason for them to use it. </p>
<h4 id="vBVtQT">36. Justin Garza (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="x4SOqg">Loads of walks torpedoed Garza’s return to MLB. The 29-year-old pitched in 21 games for Cleveland in 2021, but he managed only 17 appearances with Boston over the summer, producing a 7.36 ERA and a 13.2 percent walk rate, which was the highest mark among Red Sox pitchers with at least 10 innings pitched in 2023. After being demoted at the end of July, he spent the rest of the year in Worcester. </p>
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<img alt="MLB: Game Two-New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ZyeGIuBNnFrvyIGz7mn9H0x1Z1A=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24977597/usa_today_21418277.jpg">
<cite>Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
</figure>
<h4 id="XQ8xnH">35. Brandon Walter (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="pLSWQu">Hovering right around the back of the top 20 of the Red Sox’s prospect rankings, Walter got his first taste of MLB action this season, making his MLB debut on June 22. He went on to scatter 23 total innings of work over that June appearance and call-ups in July and September, but he produced an ERA of 6.26 (4.26 FIP) and struck out fewer than seven batters per nine innings.</p>
<h4 id="sYgDGK">34. Zack Kelly (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="XiUVL6">Elbow inflammation stole most of Kelly’s season, as he sat out from mid-April until late September. However, the Red Sox didn’t shut him down entirely, bringing him up for a pair of one inning assignments during the last week of the season. The 28-year-old reliever now has 23 MLB innings under his belt and uninspiring numbers to go with those frames (4.65 FIP, 4.9 percent strikeout-to-walk rate). Still, since the Red Sox gave him a look in September, they might be hoping to get something from him next season. </p>
<h4 id="8vQaxp">33. Zack Weiss (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="Iq8ln9">The Red Sox picked up Weiss after the Angels designated him for assignment at the end of August. The 31-year-old right-hander then appeared in six games (8 2/3 innings) in September for the Red Sox, pitching to a 2.08 ERA and 5.80 FIP (small samples, am I right?) before being sent back to the minors. </p>
<h4 id="jGbeEe">32. Joe Jacques (Previous Rank: 33)</h4>
<p id="95GI99">Jacques is a southpaw reliever who took the train back and forth from Worcester a few times this season. Acquired off waivers from the Pirates last December, Jacques logged 26 2/3 innings across 23 appearances for the Red Sox in 2023, but his production was middling at best (4.53 FIP, 16.4 percent strikeout rate, 8.2 percent walk rate), and he ultimately ended the campaign in the minors. </p>
<h4 id="zR1W6r">31. Nick Robertson (Previous Rank: 32)</h4>
<p id="lJhf15">Acquired as part of the trade that sent Enrique Hernández back to Los Angeles, Robertson pitched in nine games (12 innings) for the Red Sox across the last couple months of the season. Despite striking out a little more than a batter per frame, the right-hander was hit hard in a few outings, yielding a 6.00 ERA (4.51 FIP). The 25-year-old bounced between Boston and Worcester in his short time with the team as well, but given his age and that the Red Sox traded for him (even if the deal was more about shedding Hernández), he’ll likely get more chances next year. </p>
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<img alt="Tampa Bay Rays v Boston Red Sox" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/RnhrssTKJmrzrIZpGEh4ELnAH4k=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24977601/1691389131.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
<h4 id="gzrSu7">30. Chris Murphy (Previous Rank: 30)</h4>
<p id="vR8xm4">Considering how often he was sent back and forth between Boston and Worcester, Murphy logged a respectable amount of innings out of the bullpen for the Red Sox in 2023 (47 2/3). That total outpaced a more brand name hurlers, such as Kenley Jansen. Murphy wasn’t as good as Jansen, of course, producing a 4.91 ERA and 3.70 FIP, but his ability to eat innings out of the pen was encouraging, especially since his long-term role is still up in the air. </p>
<h4 id="fECq11">29. Luis Urías (Previous Rank: 16)</h4>
<p id="kxFANn">Urías was the biggest addition the Red Sox made at the trade deadline, at least based on name recognition. The former Brewer did flash some of his former upside from the 2021 and 2022 season, but ultimately ended the year on the IL as a roughly league average hitter. Still, he deserves big props for <a href="https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2023/08/19/watch-luis-urias-grand-slam-red-sox-yankees-video-jimmie-foxx/">those grand slams</a>. </p>
<h4 id="qiDTli">28. Mauricio Llovera (Previous Rank: 28)</h4>
<p id="9B8hO1">Llovera was traded to the Red Sox by the Giants on July 26. From that point on, the 27-year-old reliever threw more innings than Josh Winckowski, John Schreiber, Jansen and Garrett Whitlock. Was the workload deserved? Probably not given his production (5.46 ERA), but he certainly earned Alex Cora’s trust and it’s not like the Red Sox’s bullpen was filled with elite options anyway. </p>
<h4 id="is1wor">27. Enmanuel Valdez (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="Rkkh6D">In his first MLB season, Valdez produced a roughly league average line at the plate (102 wRC+ in 149 plate appearances), but his defensive acumen at second base was relatively suspect. Still, the 24-year-old held his own. </p>
<h4 id="v5kpe0">26. Rob Refsnyder (Previous Rank: 27)</h4>
<p id="hiUwuN">Here’s the good news: Refsnyder killed lefties in 2033, amassing a 133 wRC+ when facing southpaws. Here’s the bad news: He had just a 31 wRC+ against righties, which limited him to platoon duty and a lot of time on the bench. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="New York Yankees v Boston Red Sox - Game Two" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/UAX179RHXCDSk5JZuZd-0WSAtpQ=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24977603/1677331107.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
<h4 id="7sfD59">25. Pablo Reyes (Previous Rank: 8)</h4>
<p id="197kDJ">Reyes separated himself from the litany of guys who tried to fill the gaps at shortstop and second base by <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FwbZuKoPhc">hitting a walk off grand slam</a> to finish off one of the most fun wins of the season. Does that make up for his below average offensive profile and middling defense? Maybe not, but producing one of the bright spots of a rather dismal year has to mean something. </p>
<h4 id="tLv7F2">24. John Schreiber (Previous Rank: 18)</h4>
<p id="R8n3fE">Schreiber was merely good this season after being exceptional in 2022. Some of that can be chalked up to the significant time he missed with injuries, but his ERA and FIP both rose by more than a run, he allowed free passes more liberally and his velocity dropped a bit. Despite the regression, the 29-year-old reliever figures to be a key part of the bullpen in 2024. </p>
<h4 id="W5FlVV">23. Reese McGuire (Previous Rank: 24)</h4>
<p id="QqsCJ0">As backup catchers go, McGuire was fine in 2023. Some batted ball luck helped him achieve a relatively respectable .267 batting average, but his overall offensive output was 22 percent below league average, while on defense he was slightly above average, with slightly being the operative word. </p>
<h4 id="5eJWyb">22. Trevor Story (Previous Rank: 15)</h4>
<p id="0dyp1R">It wasn’t certain that Story would play at all this season after he had surgery on his right UCL in February, but the Red Sox’s big offseason acquisition from 2021 did get back to the field in early August. Story finally brought defensive stability to the shortstop position, but his offense was putrid, amounting to a 48 wRC+. The Red Sox have to hope that he can bounce back next season. </p>
<h4 id="w1OirQ">21. Garrett Whitlock (Previous Rank: 21)</h4>
<p id="XaN9a6">It’s difficult to evaluate Whitlock’s season with any sort of understanding of what it means long term. Due to nagging injuries, he was limited to just 22 appearances, although his innings total (71 2/3) was in the same ballpark as his marks in 2022 and 2021, mostly thanks to a career-high 10 starts. He still had solid strikeout and walk rates, but a tendency to find opposing barrels ballooned his ERA and FIP. Hopefully a fully healthy Whitlock will be able to make good on the star potential he flashed previously next year. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Boston Red Sox v Baltimore Orioles" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/FSHczPkx1MDBQ9CyOn2fbEdREqU=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24977605/1697766407.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
<h4 id="geESsV">20. Connor Wong (Previous Rank: 13)</h4>
<p id="ZAl2yC">Wong seemed to cement himself as the Red Sox’s prime catcher this season, largely because of his ability to control the run game, a skill that will be increasingly important given the new rule changes. Wong ranked in the 92nd percentile in Baseball Savant’s caught stealing above average metric, even if his blocking and framing work was less impressive. However, on offense, Wong was safely below average and struck out a ton. In fairness, the Red Sox don’t need (nor expect) him to be Adley Rutschman, but even a bit more offensive success could go a long way next year. </p>
<h4 id="pJT785">19. Tanner Houck (Previous Rank: 26)</h4>
<p id="2GKB9X">Houck really threw a wrench into things on Sunday, as he threw six sparkling innings against the <a href="https://www.camdenchat.com/">Baltimore Orioles</a> to close the 2023 campaign on a high note. For those who bought plenty of Houck stock when he first came up, perhaps it provides hope for next season. However, Houck’s overall work as a full-time starter (5.01 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 21.4 percent strikeout rate, 8.9 percent walk rate) was less enticing, even when considering an injury that may have zapped some of his stuff. Ultimately, when healthy, Houck was OK at best, leaving many of the questions we’ve been asking since he debuted unanswered. </p>
<h4 id="6HmwsW">18. James Paxton (Previous Rank: 19)</h4>
<p id="BIBSB3">The Red Sox’s gamble to sign Paxton in December of 2021 looked like it was finally paying off when the southpaw returned to pitch like an ace in mid-May. Over his first nine starts, he logged 50 innings, produced a 2.70 ERA and 3.22 FIP, and struck out 31.1 percent of the batters he faced. However, his final 10 starts were much more lackluster, and that’s putting it mildly, with Paxton posting a 6.46 ERA and 6.28 FIP in those outings before being shut down with a knee injury in early September. It remains a mystery why the Red Sox didn’t trade Paxton before the deadline and it looks even more puzzling in now. </p>
<h4 id="2cdodm">17. Ceddanne Rafaela (Previous Rank: 12)</h4>
<p id="e7lXeT">Rafaela, a top 100 MLB prospect, debuted for the Red Sox on Aug. 28 and finished out the year at the big league level. As one might expect for a rookie in his age 22 season (he turned 23 two weeks ago), he struggled, finishing with a 74 wRC+ thanks to heaps of strikeouts and very little plate discipline. However, getting him playing time this year will hopefully help him hit the ground running in 2024. </p>
<h4 id="0lTNXu">16. Brennan Bernardino (Previous Rank: 17)</h4>
<p id="uOK8mv">Prior to 2023, Bernardino had pitched all of 2 1/3 innings in the majors, but he developed into one of the Red Sox’s most reliable relievers this season. The 31-year-old tied with Chris Martin for the second-most appearances on the team (55) and he did more than soak up innings, finishing the campaign with a 3.20 ERA and 3.41 FIP. </p>
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<img alt="Boston Red Sox v Baltimore Orioles" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/iUsXF8gKpyb9PU7nJa5iK3PkoMc=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24977607/1697766195.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
<h4 id="W8LnDp">15. Josh Winckowski (Previous Rank: 11)</h4>
<p id="2myB0q">Winckowski solidified his role as a bullpen workhorse in 2023, leading all Red Sox relievers in innings pitched (84 1/3) and appearances (60). Wielding a sinker with zip, Winckowski used his skills at producing groundballs to keep his ERA at a stately 2.88, although his FIP was more than a full run higher.</p>
<h4 id="39EiUM">14. Wilyer Abreu (Previous Rank: 22)</h4>
<p id="lSydjt">Abreu was one of the few bright spots over the final month of the season, slashing .316/.388/.474 with a 135 wRC+ after making his MLB debut in late August. Sure, that’s a wicked small sample (85 plate appearances) and he certainly had a few lucky bounces (.431 BABIP), but the 24-year-old outfielder made a name for himself and could be in the mix for a permanent gig next season. </p>
<h4 id="eH7CQM">13. Chris Martin (Previous Rank: 9)</h4>
<p id="4oikOt">Chaim Bloom may not have succeeded as much as anyone would have liked, but he did show a tendency to sign some solid, if unexciting, contributors. Martin is one example, as the veteran reliever brought his no-walks-allowed approach to Fenway and excelled, producing a 1.05 ERA and 2.44 FIP across 51 1/3 innings of work out of the bullpen. </p>
<h4 id="UynDiq">12. Masataka Yoshida (Previous Rank: 23)</h4>
<p id="dBfHil">If we just look at Yoshida’s final stat line for the season, there’s a lot to like. He slashed .289/.338/.445 with a 109 wRC+ and 14 percent strikeout rate in his first season in MLB. However, at one point, it looked like Yoshida was poised to be a Rookie of the Year candidate. Heck, he even <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2023/6/2/23745685/boston-red-sox-player-power-rankings-masataka-yoshida-chris-sale-alex-verdugo-rafael-devers-paxton">ranked No. 1 in these power rankings</a> after May. Entering the All-Star break, Yoshida had a 136 wRC+ and an incredible 10.7 percent striikeout rate, fully realizing his potential as a master of the strike zone. However, everything fell apart in the second half, with Yoshida netting just a 73 wRC+ after the break. To make matters worse, he also struggled on defense all year. The Red Sox could live with his defensive shortcomings when he was hitting, but his offensive regression later in the summer hurt all the more because of those fielding woes. Hopefully Yoshida can make the necessary adjustments to be productive from start to finish in 2024, because when he’s on, he’s incredible. </p>
<h4 id="iphfAw">11. Chris Sale (Previous Rank: 14)</h4>
<p id="4WC7Gx">We got flashes of vintage Sale in 2023, but lingering injuries and inconsistent performance ultimately led to another frustrating year for the former ace. Even in a year that didn’t go how he planned, Sale still exhibited some promising developments. He struck out nearly 30 percent of the batters he faced and allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last five appearances. He also ranked second among Red Sox pitchers in fWAR (2.1). At this point, the Red Sox can’t really expect a fully healthy season from Sale, but if he can be solid when he can pitch, that might be good enough. </p>
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<img alt="Boston Red Sox v Baltimore Orioles" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-2h__aPlx1KEXkQ-kA8O29I4GtE=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24977612/1706841120.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
<h4 id="Iqowe5">10. Alex Verdugo (Previous Rank: 7)</h4>
<p id="9NFevo">Surprisingly, despite a strong start to the season at the plate, Verdugo's most important contributions may have been on defense this year. He ranked in the 95th percentile in outfield arm strength and in the 70th percentile in outs above average, according to Baseball Savant. When mixed with an overall offensive output that was a hair shy of league average (98 wRC+), Verdugo was able to produce a two-win season, setting a high-water mark for him in Boston. Unfortunately, given the drastic deterioration of his offensive success in the second half, this season feels more like a lateral step for Verdugo. </p>
<h4 id="Sv6qa1">9. Nick Pivetta (Previous Rank: 25)</h4>
<p id="YVrDqn">2023 was a rollercoaster for Pivetta. He fluctuated between looking like the team’s best pitcher to being unable to hold down a rotation spot. All together, his campaign actually grades out pretty well, as he set career bests in strikeout rate (31.2 percent) and ERA (4.04) while dialing up his velocity by more than an entire mile per hour compared with 2022. Pivetta may struggle with consistency, but there’s no denying how critical a part of the Red Sox’s staff he is.</p>
<h4 id="6bk3wX">8. Brayan Bello (Previous Rank: 5)</h4>
<p id="CXpV5T">During an exceptional 11-start stretch from the end of April to the end of June, Bello was easily the best pitcher on the roster, building expectations that the Red Sox had finally solved their struggles developing starting pitching talent. Across those starts, Bello threw 65 2/3 innings and produced a 2.33 ERA and 3.41 FIP, but he couldn’t sustain such a level of performance, as a 5.25 ERA over the last three months of the season soured his overall numbers. Still, considering it was his first full year in the majors, Bello’s season should be considered a success, if a less rousing one than we expected a few months ago. </p>
<h4 id="OKPLzn">7. Kutter Crawford (Previous Rank: 10)</h4>
<p id="9XJIlT">Congratulations if you had Crawford in your who-will-lead-the-Red-Sox’s-pitching-staff-in-fWAR pool. It’s kind of weird you have one of those, but I digress. Despite the fanfare of Paxton’s return, Bello’s near breakout and Sale’s occasional classic outings, Crawford really anchored the rotation once he became a regular starter in June. That isn’t to say he was an ace, as he had a 4.51 ERA as a starter, but he consistently ate up innings and was good for a shutdown performance from time to time, ultimately leading to a pretty solid season for the 27-year-old. </p>
<h4 id="tuQaQZ">6. Adam Duvall (Previous Rank: 2)</h4>
<p id="FEVHmq">If Pivetta were a hitter, he’d be Adam Duvall. Despite missing most of April and May with an injury, Duvall produced a comfortably above average offensive season for the Red Sox, tallying a 116 wRC+ and smashing 21 home runs. His blistering first week of the campaign and incredible August (175 wRC+) were counterbalanced by his sky-high strikeout rate and limited ability to get on base, but when he went on a hot streak, nothing could stop him. </p>
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<img alt="Los Angeles Dodgers v Boston Red Sox" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/HrUCG6ghXBnCdSSld7BiN51wp4o=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24977615/1623966705.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images</cite>
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<h4 id="cDCcjc">5. Kenley Jansen (Previous Rank: 4)</h4>
<p id="NccYZt">Jansen was the Red Sox’s lone All-Star Game representative this season, producing a another solid season and continuing to be one of the better closers in baseball. Although his run prevention numbers were a little high (3.63 ERA, 3.66 FIP), he racked up 29 saves and matched his fWAR total from 2022. In fairness, his strikeout rate dipped quite a bit and he threw the fewest innings of his career outside of his 2010 debut campaign and the shortened 2020 season, but the 36-year-old veteran provided more positives than negatives in the first season of a two-year deal with the Red Sox. </p>
<h4 id="lpnRAH">4. Justin Turner (Previous Rank: 3)</h4>
<p id="VeZowo">Turner tailed off near the end of the season, but overall, he was one of the most consistent offensive threats in the Red Sox’s lineup day in and day out. He finished the year with a .276/.345/.455 slash line and a 114 wRC+ while ranking second on the team in RBI (96) and runs scored (86) and third in home runs (23).</p>
<h4 id="9ECeTh">3. Jarren Duran (Previous Rank: 20)</h4>
<p id="B7J74W">Injuries are the absolute pits. After looking like a complete bust in his first two go-rounds at the MLB level, Duran finally broke out in a big way this season before a toe injury stole the final month from him. Despite the significant time missed, he still tied for second on the team in fWAR (2.4) while slashing .295/.346/.482 with a 120 wRC+ and 24 stolen bases to boot. Assuming he comes back healthy next season, Duran could be on the cusp of big things. </p>
<h4 id="3txdPr">2. Triston Casas (Previous Rank: 6)</h4>
<p id="56rJrO">Casas overcame a slow start to produce a sterling rookie campaign, at times looking like one of the best hitters in baseball. He slashed .263/.367/.490 with a 13.9 percent walk rate, 24 home runs and a 129 wRC+. A shoulder issue landed him on the IL to end the year, but that shouldn’t dampen the excitement for his 2024 encore. </p>
<h4 id="a9kZMf">1. Rafael Devers (Previous Rank: 1)</h4>
<p id="w15zok">In his first season after signing a 10-year deal with the Red Sox, the $313.5 million man ultimately turned in a strong showing. Whether it was the pressure of all those dollars or just a slump, Devers did get out to a slow start, but when the dust settled, he had racked up team-highs in fWAR (3.1), home runs (33), RBI (100) and runs scored (90). He also ranked fifth in hard hit rate in all of MLB, according to Statcast, cementing himself as one of the most fearsome hitters in the game. Unfortunately, there is some bad news, as Devers’ defense was abysmal, but even with a faulty glove, he was the best player on the roster in 2023.</p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2023/10/5/23903623/boston-red-sox-player-power-rankings-2023-finale-rafael-devers-triston-casas-jarren-duran-chris-salePhil Neuffer2023-08-31T08:15:15-04:002023-08-31T08:15:15-04:00Red Sox Player Power Rankings: Stretch Run Edition
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<img alt="MLB: Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/XyncooaqbmiuJuCgaOGOOo50mis=/0x0:4771x3181/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72597394/usa_today_21232609.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>With a little more than a month left of the season, it’s time to evaluate who’s been thriving in the dog days of summer and who’s been running out of gas. </p> <p id="JgaGRy">This past weekend, Mookie Betts returned to Fenway Park for the first time since the <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> traded him to the <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a> before the 2020 season. Perhaps you heard about it. I’m not bringing this up to elicit even more discourse about the Betts trade, but to think about the best players the Red Sox have fielded since he left. </p>
<p id="aneqDD">From 2015 to 2019, Betts led the Red Sox in bWAR every season, and he even won an MVP award during one of those campaigns. Since then, Alex Verdugo (2020) and Xander Bogaerts (2021 and 2022) have each been the team’s best player as measured by bWAR, although there are arguments to be made for other guys as well if we go beyond that single metric. </p>
<p id="LxpleP">Speaking of making arguments, in a little more than a month, we’ll be able to debate who holds the championship belt as best player for the 2023 Red Sox, but until then, welcome back to our monthly player power rankings. We are doing this a smidge earlier than usual and for totally baseball-related reasons, not because I am going on vacation later this week. </p>
<p id="u2wVHG">In terms of eligibility, for this edition, players were evaluated for their performance since our last rankings (which posted on Aug. 4) while considering the context of the entire season. Players had to make at least one appearance at the MLB level during our evaluation period and must still be on the roster. That means we have to say goodbye to Richard Bleier and don’t even get a chance to talk about the Dinelson Lamet era. There are also a slew of guys from the last version who were demoted and/or didn’t get any MLB work since we last checked in, but you’re here to read about players actually on the rankings, not guys who aren’t, so let’s get to it. </p>
<p id="pA2ikj"><em>Editor’s Note: All statistics are from prior to games on Aug. 29 unless otherwise noted. </em></p>
<h4 id="RhBNBi">34. Kyle Barraclough (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="NU9pHo">Barraclough joined the Red Sox on a minor league deal in June and then waited until mid-August before getting a shot with the big league club. He provided 3 1/3 innings of relief in a mid-month series against the Tigers, allowing one earned run and striking out three. He got shipped back to Triple-A from there and then, after getting brought back, was <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2023/8/28/23849881/astros-13-red-sox-5-alex-cora-jose-altuve-yordan-alvarez-chris-sale-barraclough-ceddanne-rafaela">left to die on the mound on Monday</a>. </p>
<h4 id="rYbhUz">33. Joe Jacques (Previous Rank: 27)</h4>
<p id="eNNcqf">Jacques was demoted in early August, but he snags the final spot on the rankings by virtue of appearing across 2 <sup>2</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings in appearances on Aug. 4 and Aug. 5 before being sent down, although <a href="https://twitter.com/ByAndrewParker/status/1696506120385208578?s=20">he was called back up this week</a>. </p>
<h4 id="KcE90k">32. Nick Robertson (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="V9qyDi">Until I’m told otherwise, Robertson was the centerpiece of the Enrique Hernández trade. He pitched four innings and allowed as many earned runs across two appearances on Aug. 6 and Aug. 8 before traveling back to Triple-A. </p>
<h4 id="ahMLvl">31. Yu Chang (Previous Rank: 18)</h4>
<p id="66yiMH">Chang is back in Triple-A after clearing waivers following a dreaded DFA. His defense continued to be strong at the MLB level in his brief playing time this past month, but he just hasn’t hit much at all this season, posting a 39 wRC+ in 112 plate appearances. </p>
<h4 id="HdNJpZ">30. Chris Murphy (Previous Rank: 19) </h4>
<p id="irhsy9">Murphy hasn’t pitched much and has been bad when he has gotten into games (10.67 ERA/5.71 FIP) as a long reliever across five appearances (14 1/3 innings) since Aug. 4. He’s back in Triple-A as of this week. </p>
<h4 id="6BJ3Bg">29. David Hamilton (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="LWCY3s">The No. 20 prospect in the Red Sox’s system, Hamilton just squeaks in here after being called back up to the MLB club this week. He pinch hit in the ninth inning on Monday and did not get a hit. </p>
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<img alt="MLB: AUG 19 Red Sox at Yankees" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/xfIT_9c6ytXa5GRFiuHNxuyTlp4=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24882530/1610625698.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Bob Kupbens/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
<h4 id="AD9z7R">28. Mauricio Llovera (Previous Rank: 21)</h4>
<p id="e1hIqk">Llovera has given up just one earned run in his last six outings ... but he still has a 6.35 ERA (4.24 FIP) in that time and that’s not even including the four unearned runs he was tagged with in an appearance against Houston on Aug. 22.</p>
<h4 id="Wkqt8P">27. Rob Refsnyder (Previous Rank: 16)</h4>
<p id="xTFcLK">Even Refsnyder’s continually strong walk rate can’t buoy the ineffective contact he’s been making lately, as he has just a 45 wRC+ over his last 30 plate appearances. </p>
<h4 id="Nxibdo">26. Tanner Houck (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="pkgcTn">In his return from injury on Aug. 22, Houck allowed three earned over five innings while walking three and striking out two against the <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com">Astros</a>. He then let up just one run over four innings while striking out four and walking two against the Dodgers in his follow-up performance on Sunday. It’s too small a sample to judge him too harshly, especially since he’ll need some time to get back into the flow of MLB action, but it’s also too soon to push him much higher in these rankings. </p>
<h4 id="Klmn4c">25. Nick Pivetta (Previous Rank: 6)</h4>
<p id="GzxdAc">Pivetta must be ready for fall because he has turned back into a pumpkin. He has a 6.43 ERA and 5.08 FIP in 21 innings since Aug. 4, allowing five home runs in the process. That production includes so-so results across a pair of starts in his brief return to the rotation, although he’s back in the bullpen again now. </p>
<h4 id="NEO48r">24. Reese McGuire (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="RTSXNX">McGuire may not have the true talent to keep producing at a 147 wRC+ pace as he has the last few weeks, but he has the guile to bunt on a 3-0 count. That has to count for something. </p>
<div id="3bJ7VY">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">A perfectly placed bunt from Reese McGuire on a 3-0 pitch, just like everyone expected. <br><br> <a href="https://t.co/ro6aUQpxnO">pic.twitter.com/ro6aUQpxnO</a></p>— Jamie Gatlin (@JamieGatlin17) <a href="https://twitter.com/JamieGatlin17/status/1693797402153460175?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 22, 2023</a>
</blockquote>
<script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<h4 id="OwUmGS">23. Masataka Yoshida (Previous Rank: 5)</h4>
<p id="Demqil">I know, I know. What is Yoshida doing all the way down here? The fact is, nothing has been going right for him this month. After an impressive first half, he’s been unplayable over the last few weeks, posting a 69 wRc+, with the anchor of a putrid 3.6 percent walk rate weighing him down. He still has a comfortably above average offensive profile for the season, but weeks ago he was a Rookie of the Year candidate and putting up fringe All-Star numbers. Now he’s at 18 percent above league average, and with unimpressive defense to boot, he’s barely been better than a replacement player overall. He can certainly pull out of this, and when he’s been on, he’s been incredible, but he’ll need to make some adjustments. </p>
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<img alt="Boston Red Sox v Houston Astros" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/IwVHxeHexEAAVNPuZzKpE9QTKxo=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24882541/1636342843.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images</cite>
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<h4 id="p6R9oA">22. Wilyer Abreu (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="3Sjmcx">After producing a .274/.391/.538 slash line with 22 home runs in Triple-A, Abreu, who came over in the Christian Vázquez trade, made his MLB debut on Aug. 22, going 2-for-3 with a double. The 24-year-old outfielder then hit his first career home run during an incredible 4-for-6 outing against the Astros on Aug. 24, helping power a 17-1 victory. Currently on the paternity list, the Red Sox’s No. 17 prospect has had an eventful first week in MLB. </p>
<h4 id="SNMRbQ">21. Garrett Whitlock (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="5BuWWj">The good news is prior to Wednesday’s game, Whitlock had struck out 13 batters and walked only two in five appearances (8 <sup>1</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings) since returning from injury on Aug. 13. The bad news is his ERA during that time was 7.27. </p>
<h4 id="hRxXhf">20. Jarren Duran (Previous Rank: 1)</h4>
<p id="tMJAqh">Duran hit a cold spell for a few weeks in August before a <a href="https://twitter.com/IanMBrowne/status/1696617765841322420">sprained toe ended his season</a>. Prior to the injury, he had just a .186/.239/.302 slash line in 47 plate appearances since claiming the No. 1 spot in our last rankings. However, he accumulated 2.3 fWAR and a 120 wRC+ this year, providing quite a bit of optimism about his future, which is something we weren’t thinking was possible going into this season. </p>
<h4 id="3VINzO">19. James Paxton (Previous Rank: 10)</h4>
<p id="x6Qo8S">Any team that was asking after Paxton at the trade deadline is probably thankful the Red Sox opted to hold onto him. In his last five starts, Paxton has a 5.84 ERA, 6.60 FIP, 17.6 percent walk rate and 9.6 percent walk rate. He’s been particularly brutal in his last two outings, allowing 11 runs (10 earned) in just 8 <sup>1</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings. </p>
<h4 id="Ybf8nP">18. John Schreiber (Previous Rank: 22)</h4>
<p id="jBsYtB">Other than a disaster against the <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a> on Aug. 20 and a stumble against the Dodgers last Friday, Schreiber has been pretty solid the last few weeks, producing a 27.3 percent strikeout rate to go with decent run prevention numbers (3.72 ERA and 4.00 FIP) since Aug. 4, although his walk rate in that time (11.4 percent) isn’t my favorite. </p>
<h4 id="rBzdjB">17. Brennan Bernardino (Previous Rank: 12) </h4>
<p id="ZXX3Dk">Bernardino has carved out a very niche role in the bullpen, as he is being used in very short bursts, even for a reliever, with just two of his 11 appearances in the last month lasting an inning or more. Thankfully for the Red Sox, he’s been solid enough in that role, although he he just went on the COVID-19 list this week. </p>
<h4 id="oPRtXv">16. Luis Urías (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="idUMRM">The biggest addition the Red Sox made at the trade deadline, Urías has already etched his name into the Red Sox’s record books with <a href="https://apnews.com/article/cole-yankees-red-sox-urias-wong-7bfdd9e94fc22e15a624c2dce7cfb7b8">his penchant for grand slams</a>.</p>
<h4 id="2CXOsq">15. Trevor Story (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="HKTmyU">After a hot first week back from injury in which he slashed .318/.375/.500, the rust has started to show, with Story posting a five (yes, the number five) wRC+ in his last 48 plate appearances, although he did hit his first home run of the year last Friday against the Dodgers. On the plus side, he has provided much needed defensive stability at shortstop, becoming the team leader in defensive runs saved at the position already. </p>
<h4 id="AEwTVN">14. Chris Sale (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="yVSr4L">Despite missing time with injuries, Sale is still tied with Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford for the team lead in fWAR among pitchers (1.6). The Red Sox have taken it easy on Sale workload wise since his return from the injured list, as he has yet to pitch past the fifth inning since Aug. 11, including an uneven performance against the Astros on Monday. Still, he’s striking out more than 30 percent of the batters he’s faced during his last four starts, even if his run prevention success has been spotty. </p>
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<img alt="Boston Red Sox v Houston Astros" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/7u9uibscn4w5mpbHhLZTryqICu0=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24882566/1638389494.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images</cite>
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<h4 id="PxXsx9">13. Connor Wong (Previous Rank: 17)</h4>
<p id="ILddoG">Wong hasn’t done too much or too little in August. He’s been a nearly league average hitter (98 wRC+) since Aug. 4 with his usual plus speed and defense. He still has too many holes at the plate (see his miserable walk numbers), but he continues to be a relatively solid catcher, particularly in a lineup that doesn’t need him to be peak Buster Posey. </p>
<h4 id="tOURlj">12. Ceddanne Rafaela (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="pid9Q0">Is this too high? Maybe, but this ranking is more a product of hype than anything else. Rafaela is a top 100 prospect and already one of the most exciting players on the roster given his combination of skills. He also singled in his MLB debut on Monday and led off and played shortstop yesterday. Seems ready to me.</p>
<h4 id="3eQYNb">11. Josh Winckowski (Previous Rank: 14) </h4>
<p id="o6gjlv">The Swiss army knife of the Red Sox staff has been strong in his last 10 appearances, posting a 2.07 FIP in as many innings. He also picked up his third save of the season and started for the first time this year during that time, making him the only player on the roster with more than one save and at least one game started. In fairness, he only pitched a single inning while serving as an opener in that start, but it still counts!</p>
<h4 id="uwGgyx">10. Kutter Crawford (Previous Rank: 7)</h4>
<p id="wwaI78">Crawford didn’t rock the boat one way or another this month, as he continues to be a solid option in the rotation, producing a 3.79 ERA and a 17.3 percent strikeout-to-walk rate over his four starts before Wednesday’s debacle against the Astros.</p>
<h4 id="G8S9kP">9. Chris Martin (Previous Rank: 12)</h4>
<p id="zHyHQH">Who cares if he can’t strike anyone out? Martin is riding an impressive hot streak, going 12-straight appearances without allowing a run. His ERA is down to 1.25 on the season and although his FIP may disagree (2.72), it’s not as if his numbers there are anything less than stellar. </p>
<h4 id="XzP94f">8. Pablo Reyes (Previous Rank: 26)</h4>
<p id="mHsq9P">If Reyes wasn’t currently on the injured list, he might be even higher. Who cares if it’s not sustainable? Over his last 78 plate appearances, he’s slashed .310/.351/.465 and delivered in big moments more than once. Simply put, Reyes has been too much fun (and too effective) not to be playing regularly for the Red Sox when he’s healthy right now. </p>
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<h4 id="6TD8AS">7. Alex Verdugo (Previous Rank: 15) </h4>
<p id="sgVTU3">Verdugo was in a bad spot at the beginning of the month, but he’s turned things around in a big way. He’s also had more power in August, <a href="https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2023/08/26/alex-verdugo-homerun-mookie-betts-red-sox-dodgers-highlights/">leading off multiple games</a> with dingers while slashing .294/.319/.506 since Aug. 4, although his walk rate during that stretch is concerning. </p>
<h4 id="3txdPr">6. Triston Casas (Previous Rank: 3)</h4>
<p id="7kszos">Even if Casas hasn’t been able to keep up the ridiculous hot streak he was on last time we checked in, he has still been very good, posting a 129 wRc+ in his last 84 plate appearances while launching five more dingers. As of now, his rookie season has featured 21 bombs and a 125 wRc+, which is a pretty nifty foundation to set for a MLB career. </p>
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<img alt="Detroit Tigers v Boston Red Sox" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/VtkZfOpQQzNRiPvE4mwf4QSKdvk=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24882570/1612969639.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Gaelen Morse/Getty Images</cite>
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<h4 id="I6m0lu">5. Brayan Bello (Previous Rank: 13)</h4>
<p id="kjcByw">Bello isn't eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award, but this has been a very strong first full campaign, with his efforts in August helping offset some regression in July. His ability to get groundballs has been a major reason, as his 55.4 percent groundball rate prior to his start on Tuesday would have ranked third among qualified pitchers in MLB, helping to offset his curiously dwindling strikeout numbers. </p>
<h4 id="IL0DnB">4. Kenley Jansen (Previous Rank: 8)</h4>
<p id="zeWbQQ">This season, Jansen has the fourth-most valuable cutter among qualified relievers. It’s an offering he continues to rely on and it’s paid dividends for his overall body of work, which looks better and better every month. In August, Jansen has cut down on walks while producing a 1.23 ERA and racking up six saves. Granted, that’s only over the span of 7 1/3 innings, but with a 2.81 ERA and 3.34 FIP overall this year, Jansen deserves such a high ranking for his consistently effective work. </p>
<h4 id="VOjM5W">3. Justin Turner (Previous Rank: 4)</h4>
<p id="TAeJ6W">Every time the Red Sox need a run driven in, it feels like Turner is there. He currently leads the team in Fangraphs’ clutch metric on the year and is batting .370 with runners in scoring position while posting a 186 wRC+ in high leverage situations. Since Aug. 4, he’s slashed .313/.389/.578 with a 160 wRC+, bolstering what has been the most consistently excellent offensive season by a Red Sox player this year. </p>
<h4 id="Tjrm8z">2. Adam Duvall (Previous Rank: 11)</h4>
<p id="QmL4U3">There must be something about months that begin with the letter A. Duvall is swinging a scorching bat right now, just like he did in early April, laying out a 186 wRC+ and .321/.369/.718 slash line with a team-high eight home runs since Aug. 4. During that span, he’s accumulated 1.2 fWAR, which is more than all but five position players on the roster have racked up all season. </p>
<h4 id="xNKdGh">1. Rafael Devers (Previous Rank: 2)</h4>
<p id="zIHqY3">Devers has has now eclipsed Verdugo as the clubhouse leader in fWAR for the season. While not on the heater Duvall is on, Devers was our No. 2 player in the last rankings and all he’s done since then is slash .296/.406/.506 and post a 147 wRC+ while walking more and striking out less than usual en route to a 0.79 strikeout-to-walk ratio. It’s taken a while and the defense is an issue, but Devers is finally at the top of the rankings where he belongs. </p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2023/8/31/23849471/boston-red-sox-player-power-rankings-one-month-left-edition-rafael-devers-justin-turner-adam-duvallPhil Neuffer2023-08-04T06:38:29-04:002023-08-04T06:38:29-04:00Red Sox Player Power Rankings: Post-Trade Deadline Edition
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<img alt="Boston Red Sox v Seattle Mariners" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/lzWvDcJg3gxCfPrlg-y4-5calHc=/0x0:6224x4149/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72513283/1588330655.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Alika Jenner/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The Red Sox’s roster might look largely the same after the trade deadline, but what about our player power rankings? </p> <p id="Zn3HBA">What a strange and quiet trade deadline for the <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Boston Red Sox</a>. Sure, they technically made some moves, but most of them were of the organizational depth variety and while such transactions have their place, they aren’t going to help the Red Sox in 2023 all that much. </p>
<p id="yKleqP">Even without much trading going on, there was still plenty of roster turnover since our last power rankings. Enrique Hernández is back with the <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a>, the Jorge Alfaro era came and went, several players returned from injury and the Red Sox even added some reinforcements like reliever Mauricio Llovera. (Well, reinforcement, singular, until Luis Urías gets promoted back to the bigs, I suppose). The roster will look even different in the next few weeks as Trevor Story, Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Chris Sale return as well, but before we look too far ahead, let’s take a look at who’s been hot, who’s been struggling and who’s mirroring the Red Sox’s trade deadline strategy and standing still (zing!). </p>
<p id="RpO62X">Before we get into the rankings, a few quick notes for this edition. Players were primarily evaluated based on their performance in July, although their overall body of work this year factored in as well. Posting a 200 wRc+ in 10 plate appearances last month isn’t going to earn someone the No. 1 spot automatically. Additionally, our usual cutoff for eligibility is making at least one appearance at the MLB level in the previous month, but we’re tweaking slightly because a few guys (namely Whitlock and Kaleb Ort) technically met the requirement but haven’t played since our last rankings. So for this version, players must have made an appearance after the All-Star break. Sure, that’s a bit convoluted, but this is all make believe anyway. Now to the rankings. </p>
<h4 id="ENXqdW">28. Justin Garza (Previous Rank: 28)</h4>
<p id="wJtmxY">After performing pretty well in May and not great in June, Garza was miserable in very few chances in July, including his lone post-All-Star break appearance in which he allowed three earned runs over <sup>2</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> of an inning against the <a href="https://www.amazinavenue.com/">Mets</a>, earning him a trip back to Triple-A. </p>
<h4 id="9REJ6N">27. Joe Jacques (Previous Rank: 26)</h4>
<p id="OVqr8j">Jacques was recently called back up to replace Joely Rodríguez (more on him later). Jacques threw a total of 10 <sup>2</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings in July before and after being demoted and recalled. As you’d expect for someone with such a tenuous hold on a roster spot, his performance in that sample wasn’t the best (6.75 ERA). </p>
<h4 id="SFdmXK">26. Pablo Reyes (Previous Rank: 27)</h4>
<p id="V88D7S">Reyes has accumulated all of five plate appearances since returning from the IL, so his ranking here is a way of giving him the benefit of the doubt. </p>
<h4 id="g6RULg"><strong>25. Richard Bleier (Previous Rank: Not Ranked) </strong></h4>
<p id="quY5b6">Bleier returned from his own IL stint in mid-July and has been OK, although his strikeout rate has been horrible, even for him. Let’s blame it on sample size. </p>
<h4 id="HQiOps">24. Brandon Walter (Previous Rank: 21)</h4>
<p id="eKvRly">Walter was sent back to Triple-A on July 24 after performing relatively well as a multi-inning reliever (3.07 ERA, 3.95 FIP in 14 2/3 innings across June and July), although his strikeout rate was pretty dismal (13.8 percent). As the No. 19 prospect in the organization, according to FanGraphs, he’ll more than likely have another chance, but he has work to do before then. </p>
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<img alt="Boston Red Sox v San Francisco Giants" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/qVrMI-FsGvxc79ZLvGeNqqFHxKk=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24828641/1582108216.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Kavin Mistry/Getty Images</cite>
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<h4 id="lEV1zf">23. Christian Arroyo (Previous Rank: 24) </h4>
<p id="ABSiJ3">The promotion Arroyo received in these rankings is a symptom of more stringent eligibility requirements and not his play on the field. Arroyo did hit a respectable .277 in July, but a look at his entire offensive profile is much more damning. He didn’t hit any home runs during the month and walked 2.1 percent of the time, contributing to a 73 wRC+. On the bright side, that somehow outpaced his overall mark for the season (66). When you add in some suspect defense, Arroyo is doing more harm than good, even on a team that is desperate for middle infield help. </p>
<h4 id="oh78Gx">22. John Schreiber (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="KDH5Zi">Finally back after two months on the IL, Schreiber is still finding his footing, particularly after a rocky outing on Wednesday in which he allowed hour earned runs in just one inning of work. Still, he’s only thrown 4 <sup>2</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings since returning, so there’s no need to panic. </p>
<h4 id="ZVYwKm">21. Mauricio Llovera (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="3vjWAI">What do you mean the Red Sox did nothing before the trade deadline? Llovera is striking out 15 batters per nine and has a 0.00 ERA with the Red Sox. Don’t worry about how many innings he’s thrown or what his peripherals look like. </p>
<h4 id="lwaVR9">20. Joely Rodríguez (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="BenBum">Rodríguez was pitching great in July (0.00 ERA, 0.70 FIP and 11.45 K/9 across six appearances) before he once again hit the IL at the end of the month. </p>
<h4 id="vhfvV1">19. Chris Murphy (Previous Rank: 23)</h4>
<p id="5frdxx">Murphy and Walter are right next to each other on FanGraphs’ Red Sox prospect rankings, but Murphy is still with the MLB club currently. The 25-year-old southpaw has a 1.59 ERA and 2.99 FIP in 28 <sup>1</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings since debuting in early June, and he bolstered those numbers with strong efforts in multi-inning relief work across 18 <sup>1</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> July innings. </p>
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<img alt="Atlanta Braves v Boston Red Sox" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/jG_sojX4J1bQD5tDI0g9Bb0mKmI=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24828644/1583057426.jpg">
<cite>Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images</cite>
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<h4 id="eFRqGQ">18. Yu Chang (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="CEkcjz">Did you know the Red Sox are the worst defensive team in MLB based on outs above average? It’s not even a particularly close race, as they currently sit at -46 OAA, with the second-worst team, the Miami Marlins, at -16. That is not a typo. We’re talking a difference of 30 OAA. By the same measure, Chang has been the team’s best defender (four OAA), so even if he has a 48 wRC+ in 50 plate appearances since returning from the IL on July 7, he’s still providing value. </p>
<h4 id="r28T84">17. Connor Wong (Previous Rank: 19)</h4>
<p id="j7SyTt">Wong had a pretty neutral July, offensively speaking, posting a 97 wRC+, but he has continued to be consistent behind the plate, particularly when it comes to controlling the running game. According to Baseball Savant, thanks to his elite pop time, Wong is tied with Gabriel Moreno of the <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Arizona Diamondbacks</a> for the MLB lead in catcher’s caught stealing above average, a metric that essentially measures how many more would-be base stealers a catcher has thrown out compared with the league average. </p>
<h4 id="2DsVXJ">16. Rob Refsnyder (Previous Rank: 15)</h4>
<p id="2prJEt">Even though he slid back a spot, Refsnyder has continued to perform well for a for a part-time player. He produced a 111 wRC+ in July, which is in line with his 110 mark for the season, and showed excellent patience, walking in 12.2 percent of his plate appearances while striking out only 14.6 percent of the time. However, we’re only talking about a 41 plate appearance sample. </p>
<h4 id="GxnW5o">15. Alex Verdugo (Previous Rank: 2)</h4>
<p id="CRZ6LT">Verdugo entered July batting .302 (.836 OPS) and left it batting .272 (.766 OPS). He had a 27 wRC+ during the month and hasn’t had a multi-hit game since July 8. This kind of slump is obviously just that, a slump, but <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2023/8/1/23815314/the-decline-and-fall-of-alex-verdugo-red-sox-trade-rumors">as Dan wrote earlier this week</a>, it has taken all the air out of what looked like a potential breakout season. </p>
<h4 id="bkLOXr">14. Josh Winckowski (Previous Rank: 14)</h4>
<p id="o6AM64">I did a double take when looking at Winckowski’s numbers in July. The right-handed reliever struck out roughly 12 batters per nine innings during the month, which was a tremendous leap from his season-long mark of 7.93. In addition to the strikeout spike, which is probably more sample size related than an indication of future performance, he really settled down after a rough stretch in late June and early July to post a 2.70 ERA (3.42 FIP) last month. </p>
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<img alt="Boston Red Sox v Seattle Mariners" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-183C9wpi1uuYgr_vxbqZnajvts=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24828646/1586547061.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Alika Jenner/Getty Images</cite>
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<h4 id="iLLSMx">13. Brayan Bello (Previous Rank: 1) </h4>
<p id="XZF6Gi">Bello has to make the adjustment to the adjustment. When he struggled early in the year, he course-corrected and was awesome, but he’s had trouble the last few starts and has not made it easy on himself by failing to strike many batters out. His troubles in July led him to tie for the worst mark in fWAR among Red Sox pitchers during the month (-0.2). On the bright side, he is still eating innings and went toe-to-toe with Atlanta’s Spencer Strider on July 26 before the wheels fell off a little at the end. </p>
<h4 id="1H6AuR">12. Chris Martin (Previous Rank: 11)</h4>
<p id="kVkvsz">Martin walked two batters in an outing on July 30 against the <a href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/">San Francisco Giants</a>. That might seem unremarkable, but it was the first time since July 4, 2018, that he has walked multiple batters in a game. Aside from that anomaly, it was business as usual for one of the Red Sox’s most reliable relievers, as Martin posted a 1,08 ERA and secured three holds in 10 appearances in July. </p>
<h4 id="bvYWcx">11. Adam Duvall (Previous Rank: 22)</h4>
<p id="QMxjzd">Duvall was one of several Red Sox players whose named was bandied about as a potential trade candidate before the deadline, but he remained in Boston. Other teams must not have fixated on that glorious first week of the season. In fairness, however, the 34-year-old veteran has been an above average hitter over the last month (108 wRC+), which is nothing to get excited about (or to give up great prospects for), but it’s something. </p>
<h4 id="VqH9QF">10. James Paxton (Previous Rank: 3)</h4>
<p id="flasVi">For weeks it seemed like Paxton was bound to provide more value as a trade piece than a pitcher for the Red Sox, but since he’s staying put, the Red Sox will really need him down the stretch, even if he didn’t look as lights out in July as he did in June. In fairness, his stats for the month (4.95 ERA across four starts) were largely blown up by a difficult outing against the <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Chicago Cubs</a> on July 15 in which he surrendered six earned runs in three innings. </p>
<h4 id="vXYjnb">9. Brennan Bernardino (Previous Rank: 12)</h4>
<p id="IlRMIL">The Red Sox’s opener extraordinaire has been pretty solid no matter what the Red Sox have asked him to do. In July, he accumulated 12 innings and posted a 3.00 ERA, but his underlying metrics were even better (1.52 FIP, 37.5 percent strikeout rate, 4.2 percent walk rate), so maybe this opener gig is his true calling. </p>
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<img alt="Boston Red Sox v Seattle Mariners" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/7V-1sy0906bcBXGy9ghem33ByNA=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24828648/1570815706.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images</cite>
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<h4 id="4yb7wj">8. Kenley Jansen (Previous Rank: 8)</h4>
<p id="08oWzZ">The Red Sox’s lone All-Star was as steady as he’s been all year in July, so he’s back at No. 8. Jansen put up a 2.57 ERA (3.85 FIP) and recorded seven saves during the month while striking out nearly 12 batters per nine innings. </p>
<h4 id="4N46hj">7. Kutter Crawford (Previous Rank: 10)</h4>
<p id="aKRp16">Crawford had a great month of July and further solidified a spot for a rotation that is being held together with expired glue. He was third in fWAR among Red Sox pitchers in July and is second for the season after posting a 3.55 ERA (4.34 FIP) and roughly a strikeout per inning last month. His masterpiece came on July 16, when he struck out nine batters over six shutout innings against the Cubs. </p>
<h4 id="JgytzG">6. Nick Pivetta (Previous Rank: 13)</h4>
<p id="u4Qrnr">A couple times a year, Pivetta looks like the best pitcher on the planet, and his move to the bullpen (and subsequent return to the rotation) has been the catalyst for his most recent run of dominance. He led all Red Sox pitchers in fWAR in July while producing a 1.91 ERA, 2.71 FIP and 13.66 strikeouts per nine innings, spurred by his <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/nick-pivetta-sets-red-sox-record-with-13-strikeouts-in-relief">record-setting relief outing</a> against the Oakland A’s on July 17. </p>
<h4 id="Z2fePJ">5. Masataka Yoshida (Previous Rank: 6)</h4>
<p id="2sBWNv">On the one had, Yoshida had another brilliant month at the plate, slashing .314/.344/.500 with a 127 wRC+. On the other, he walked in only 2.2 percent of his plate appearances, an unheard of mark for someone with the feel he has for the strike zone. Yoshida usually uses that power to avoid strikeouts, but even for someone with a middling walk rate for the season, 2.2 percent is pretty insane. Still, you can’t really argue with that triple slash line. </p>
<h4 id="G9Dogn">4. Justin Turner (Previous Rank: 5)</h4>
<p id="CFqWWE">You can criticize Chaim Bloom for bungling the trade deadline, but signing Turner has been an excellent move and the former Dodger just kept on trucking in July, slashing .337/.390/.596 with a 163 wRC+. If it weren’t for the three guys ahead of him, he’d have a claim to the top spot. </p>
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<img alt="New York Mets (6) Vs. Boston Red Sox (8) at Fenway Park" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/EHrnro4Q2sbkO_flvyndaGL-6lo=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24828658/1551516151.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Barry Chin/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</cite>
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<h4 id="AkgpNi">3. Triston Casas (Previous Rank: 11)</h4>
<p id="6RVqgX">The breakout is here. Casas went on an absolute tear in July, with his performance at the plate catching up with his stellar underlying batted ball metrics. He slashed an absurd .348/.442/.758 and blasted seven dingers, netting the second-best wRC+ in MLB among qualified hitters in July. He even got <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-2039-a-miles-in-someone-elses-bruise/">a nice shoutout on FanGraphs’ <em>Effectively Wild</em></a>. </p>
<h4 id="zhgIaN">2. Rafael Devers (Previous Rank: 4)</h4>
<p id="1jLD5B">Devers still has rocket fuel in his bat and he finally showed it in July, producing his best month of the season at the plate by far, as he slashed .354/.411/.646 while cutting down on strikeouts as well. This has been an odd year, and the fact that Devers has not been firmly planted in the No. 1 spot on these rankings is one of its many puzzles, but he made as good a case as ever this past month. </p>
<h4 id="YwHFmr">1. Jarren Duran (Previous Rank: 7)</h4>
<p id="9aY65m">In July, Duran put up a ludicrous slash line (.384/.430/.658), produced a 195 wRC+, stole eight bases, became the official king of the hustle double, led the team in fWAR and barely even struck out that much. The questions is no longer if Duran is for real this year, it’s if he will be in the years to come. </p>
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https://www.overthemonster.com/2023/8/4/23818881/boston-red-sox-player-power-rankings-post-trade-deadline-jarren-duran-rafael-devers-triston-casasPhil Neuffer2023-07-07T05:00:00-04:002023-07-07T05:00:00-04:00Red Sox Player Power Rankings: All-Star Game Edition
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<img alt="Texas Rangers v Boston Red Sox" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/JHACyGDaBELeyHeRTkeQJ7qK7Tw=/0x0:4879x3253/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72432094/1505607954.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The All-Star Game is just a few days away and the halfway point of the season is in the rearview mirror. That means it’s time for an update to our player power rankings. </p> <p id="T7bPGW">Major League Baseball’s inclusion of a representative from each team in the All-Star Game creates an interesting tradition. While some teams will end up with half a lineup of players on the roster, other teams will ultimately settle for a single guy. As you can imagine, less successful teams often fall into the latter category; and for a great many of these teams, their representative will end up being a reliever having a surprisingly good season who isn’t really a “star” by the strictest definition. I’m talking Mark Redman for the 2006 Kansas City Royals or Joe Jiménez for the 2018 Detroit Tigers. </p>
<p id="3EfKe0">The 2023 Boston Red Sox are far from a bad team, but they are certainly more middle of the road than playoff contender. To that point, unlike many other years when they would send multiple players to the All-Star Game (like when they sent three a year ago), including multiple starters sometimes, this year’s Red Sox have just one representative headed to Seattle: closer Kenley Jansen. In fairness, Jansen is no journeyman reliever, as this will be his fourth All-Star Game appearance, and he’s having a solid season. But the fact that the Red Sox couldn’t get anyone else on the roster for the American League speaks to where the team stands near the midpoint of the season. Instead of being a powerhouse with multiple stars, they’re a team sending a single reliever. </p>
<p id="XdbgEm">Moving past the much larger conversation about the Red Sox as a franchise, even though Jansen is getting that All-Star nod, he hasn’t been the best or most important player on the Red Sox through the first three months of the season. So, to determine where everyone falls in the pecking order, it’s time for our monthly update to our 2023 Boston Red Sox Player Power Rankings.</p>
<p id="5xdELK">As a note, this edition will be a little different. Whereas April and May’s rankings were based solely on performance in each month, these rankings are based on a mix of performance in the entire first half (plus a few days) as well as in June alone. While the metrics we’re using are changing slightly, eligibility is not. Players were only considered for this ranking if they made at least one appearance at the MLB level with the Red Sox in June and are still on the roster. That means we have to say goodbye to Raimel Tapia (ranked No. 18 in May), Richard Bleier (ranked No. 28 in May) and Joely Rodríguez (ranked No. 31 in May). Tapia was cut from the team, so it’s a permanent goodbye for him, but Bleier and Rodríguez lost their spots because injuries kept them out all of June. Of course, the Red Sox have a cavalcade of folks on the injured list right now, but a few banged up guys will be on the rankings because they made an impact in June. </p>
<p id="iuTCkj">OK, that’s enough preamble. Let’s get to the rankings. </p>
<h4 id="myyKJA">36. Bobby Dalbec (Previous Rank: 32)</h4>
<p id="0oVXX4">Dalbec is clinging onto a spot in the rankings on a technicality. He appeared in two games in June and recorded a single plate appearance. Now, who decided these eligibility rules? </p>
<h4 id="b1uWRc">35. Ryan Sherriff (Previous Rank: 27)</h4>
<p id="dC1G9f">Sherriff pitched a handful of games in late May and early June and got sent back to Triple-A. In that limited time, he had a 2.70 ERA and 4.22 FIP in 6 2/3 innings. </p>
<h4 id="nESZSS">34. Tayler Scott (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="RTrPpc">OK, so I’m cheating on the eligibility, but Scott, a 31-year-old journeyman reliever, made his Red Sox debut on July 4 and since he’s still on the roster and we’re posting a week into July, we’ll fudge it a little. </p>
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<img alt="Miami Marlins v Boston Red Sox" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ku494dOrwt58S4LKRQoT4ZwKh2s=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24774084/1261445938.jpg">
<cite>Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images</cite>
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<h4 id="FDhSFP"><s>33. Caleb Hamilton (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</s></h4>
<p id="b6fY2k"><s>With Reese McGuire on the shelf, the Red Sox have turned to Hamilton as a backup backstop for Connor Wong. Hamilton has only had six plate appearances to this point, making his Red Sox debut on June 24. </s></p>
<p id="0OAAu0">. . . aaaand, he’s gone, released for Jorge Alfaro. So long, Caleb!</p>
<h4 id="RcbF5n">32. Corey Kluber (Previous Rank: 25)</h4>
<p id="qDEOM2">We have a larger pool for the rankings this month (36 players versus 32 in May), so falling backward doesn’t necessarily mean a player has played poorly. Unfortunately, Kluber’s season has just gotten worse and worse, with his transition to the bullpen as disastrous as his time as a starter. Currently one of many Red Sox pitchers on the IL, let’s hope this isn’t how it ends for the Klubot. </p>
<h4 id="MiXDLc">31. Enmanuel Valdez (Previous Rank: 20)</h4>
<p id="XY8OWV">Valdez provided some fun moments at the plate after getting called up in April, but his poor defense and overall lack of polish at the plate sent him back to the minors after he recorded a -37 wRC+ across 14 plate appearances in June. </p>
<h4 id="JpVaSC">30. Kaleb Ort (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="OxV7OJ">Ort was banished to the minors at the end of April, but the Red Sox’s dwindling pitching staff necessitated his return. Ort was making the most of the opportunity, posting a sub 3.00 ERA in seven appearances in June, but he’s already given up three earned runs in 1 <sup>1</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings in July. </p>
<h4 id="MpYmq2">29. Enrique Hernández (Previous Rank: 22)</h4>
<p id="hXrSsE">It just isn’t working for Hernández, who has been terrible all season and has yet to show any signs of pulling out of this season-long swamp. Thanks to putrid numbers at the plate (65 wRC+) and shoddy defense, Hernández is dead last on the team in fWAR (-1.1) and was last in June as well (-0.6). Despite this, he’s still getting regular playing time (84 plate appearances in June). Maybe the All-Star break will be the time he needs to get things sorted out. </p>
<h4 id="MoMZRZ">28. Justin Garza (Previous Rank: 24)</h4>
<p id="khZNYm">Garza started strong after coming up in May, but he has faded over his last few outings, posting a 7.45 ERA (6.08 FIP) across eight appearances June. Luckily for him, the Red Sox are desperate for arms, so he’s still been getting some action. </p>
<h4 id="eLDaQn">27. Pablo Reyes (Previous Rank: 26)</h4>
<p id="0dYgyz">Reyes has been a replacement level utility guy, but he’s currently on the mend from an abdominal issue. All in all, he hasn’t provided much production, but he also hasn’t been a severe detriment, so he didn’t (and shouldn’t) drop or rise that far. </p>
<h4 id="zgmcst">26. Joe Jacques (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="t0X4zD">Jacques is one of five non-Jansen relievers to earn a save for the Red Sox this season. Since debuting for the team in mid-June, he has a sub 2.00 FIP but a 4.70 ERA in 7 2/3 innings. </p>
<h4 id="mXLrpZ">25. David Hamilton (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="unq0GQ">In an effort to solve their shortstop issue, the Red Sox turned to one of their better prospects in Hamilton. So far, the results have not been great, as Hamilton as a 44 wRC+ in 32 plate appearances at the MLB level since making his MLB debut on June 21. </p>
<h4 id="Lk0iX0">24. Christian Arroyo (Previous Rank: 25)</h4>
<p id="vD83tu">The fact that Arroyo moved up (albeit it marginally) in these rankings speaks to the Red Sox’s lack of depth when it comes to positive contributors. Arroyo has a 72 wRC+ on the season and was even worse in June (58 wRC+). In fairness, even at his best, Arroyo is just a bit above league average, but he can’t even get there right now. </p>
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<img alt="Texas Rangers v Boston Red Sox" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ANohH8ALcKngwFjw_nRZM8uzft8=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24774113/1501979994.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images</cite>
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<h4 id="8DIUwf">23. Chris Murphy (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="rZojvg">Murphy is a top 20 Red Sox prospect who has a 1.98 ERA (3.22 FIP) in 13 <sup>2</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> frames since making his MLB debut on June 7. Getting most of his work as a multi-inning reliever, Murphy is likely going to get more work as the Red Sox continue to struggle with injuries to the rotation. </p>
<h4 id="RNRKYE">22. Adam Duvall (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="bKmHd3">Duvall’s heroics in the first week of the season are a distant memory, as he has just a 31 wRC+ with a single home run since returning from injury on June 9. </p>
<h4 id="HQiOps">21. Brandon Walter (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="wrrd41">There’s not much of a book on Walter at the MLB level, but he’s a top 20 Red Sox prospect who fared decently in his MLB debut, allowing three earned runs in 6 <sup>2</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings of relief against the Minnesota Twins on June 22. He got shipped back down after that, but is back with the team and tossed a scoreless frame on July 4. </p>
<h4 id="XIIl5N">20. Reese McGuire (Previous Rank: 12)</h4>
<h4 id="sjW9Px">19. Connor Wong (Previous Rank: 10)</h4>
<p id="4hyOwI">Wong and McGuire are two sides of the same coin at catcher for the Red Sox. They’re both hovering in the 80s in terms of wRC+, with McGuire producing more contact and Wong flashing more power. Behind the dish, McGuire is the better framer, but Wong has superior running game skills. With McGuire currently injured, Wong has the starting role to himself, but neither has really made a case to make catcher less of a time-share position when they’re both at full strength. </p>
<h4 id="Nxf3oT">18. Garrett Whitlock (Previous Rank: 17)</h4>
<p id="K2ttuY">Whitlock can’t seem to get into a groove, largely because of injuries. He only got through a single inning in his last start on July 2 before getting pulled and is now on the 15-day IL with an elbow bruise. Even when he’s been healthy, Whitlock has been an average starter, but there are reasons to think he could progress more rapidly if he could just stay on the mound. He still throws plenty of strikes and avoids walks (3.2 percent walk rate this year) and his peripherals have been better than his 5.23 ERA suggests, particularly in June. </p>
<h4 id="BJhnhZ">17. Chris Sale (Previous Rank: 2)</h4>
<p id="LMF0wl">Sale climbed to the No. 2 spot in these rankings last month, but mere hours after I hit submit, he got taken out of a start against the Cincinnati Reds in the fourth inning and now he’s on the 60-day IL with shoulder inflammation. At least he was pitching like an ace before this latest malady. </p>
<h4 id="aCxlMJ">16. Tanner Houck (Previous Rank: 12)</h4>
<p id="nCPICx">Houck suffered a terrifying injury that has sidelined him for a few weeks when he was struck in the face with a line drive during a start against the New York Yankees on June 16. Prior to the injury, while Houck was far from a shutdown starter, he was at least reliable, as he is still second on the team in games started and innings pitched. </p>
<h4 id="DtTldF">15. Rob Refsnyder (Previous Rank: 9)</h4>
<p id="B170Pd">Mashing lefties can only take you so far, as Refsnyder has come back down to earth recently, posting a 74 wRC+ in June. In total, Refsnyder has been a solid fourth outfielder, posting a 114 wRc+ for the season while walking at a 13.5 percent clip and playing solid defense. </p>
<h4 id="bkLOXr">14. Josh Winckowski (Previous Rank: 14)</h4>
<p id="drpPeN">Winckowski is one of Cora’s favorite relievers. The 25-year-old is second on the roster in appearances (29) and he’s racked up more than 40 innings pitched. He also has just a 3.28 ERA. However, Winckowski’s profile is a perfect example of the limits of the ERA metric. He has actually produced negative fWAR this season (-0.1) and his low strikeout approach hasn’t been working lately, as evidenced by his 5.73 ERA and 7.47 FIP in June. </p>
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<img alt="New York Yankees v Boston Red Sox" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/0szNJuZWCJTCL7H04EuOLyWsMII=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24774114/1503377265.jpg">
<cite>Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images</cite>
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<h4 id="FPazE4">13. Nick Pivetta (Previous Rank: 9)</h4>
<p id="t9jENL">Nick Pivetta has found his new calling or maybe it’s just the small sample size. Who can say?. Either way, the right-hander has a 2.63 ERA and 3.29 FIP since becoming a reliever at the end of May. He likely has more starting work ahead of him, though, with the Red Sox’s rotation currently made up of Brayan Bello, James Paxton and a handful of action figures Alex Cora borrowed from his kids.</p>
<h4 id="G2yf6V">12. Brennan Bernardino (Previous Rank: 29)</h4>
<p id="ZF3vcw">Bernardino has earned his spot as one of Cora’s most trusted bullpen arms. The southpaw is fourth in appearances among Red Sox pitchers and has posted a 2.70 ERA and 3.22 FIP. Those stellar numbers even include his last two outings, when he combined to let up two earned runs over 2 <sup>2</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings. </p>
<h4 id="mNqawP">11. Triston Casas (Previous Rank: 16)</h4>
<p id="xexrto">Casas has had a disappointing year, but it looks like he’s finally turning a corner. In June, he tied for the team lead with a 133 wRC+ and really started being more aggressive at the plate, swinging at 73.9 percent of pitches in the zone during the month, up from 68.5 percent on the season overall. That increased swing rate hasn’t led to deteriorating plate discipline either, with Casas still sporting a 12.5 percent walk rate in June. So, despite below average offensive production overall this season, maybe we’re finally seeing Casas come into his own. </p>
<h4 id="omw8qY">10. Kutter Crawford (Previous Rank: 17)</h4>
<p id="qTRQrQ">Crawford is the Red Sox’s No. 3 starter... but that’s more out of necessity than anything else. Still, your boy has a sub 4.00 ERA and a 4.32 FIP, barely walks folks and was tied for fourth among Red Sox pitchers in fWAR in June. </p>
<h4 id="EonLFq">9. Chris Martin (Previous Rank: 11)</h4>
<p id="gsTnBT">Despite missing some time at the end of April due to injury, Martin has been a very effective late inning reliever for the Red Sox. With a 1.67 ERA, 2.40 ERA and barely perceptible walk rate, there’s not much to ding about his performance, especially as his work load has been building. Martin threw 10 <sup>1</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings in June after amassing 14 <sup>2</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> combined in the first two months of the season. Martin isn’t just getting layups, either, as he has logged 18 <sup>1</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> of his 27 total innings in medium or high leverage situations. </p>
<h4 id="6b8E2d">8. Kenley Jansen (Previous Rank: 8)</h4>
<p id="w9zMuX">The Red Sox’s lone All-Star selection has 18 saves, is striking out nearly 11 batters per nine innings and is fourth in fWAR among all Red Sox pitchers. So even if his ERA is a bit higher than might be ideal for a closer (3.34), he’s still the clear leader in the bullpen. </p>
<h4 id="nWs1vi">7. Jarren Duran (Previous Rank: 13)</h4>
<p id="qGiwjc">Duran is second on the Red Sox in fWAR this season. Let that sink in. It looked like he might be receding into old habits in May when he had a 78 wRC+, but he got back above 100 in June and is off to a scorching start to July. When you put it all together, he’s slashing .309/.358/.491 and his incredible speed has helped boost his game even more, as he already has 16 stolen bases. Sure, his .421 batting average on balls in play isn’t sustainable and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is roughly the same as a year ago, but for now, Duran has a half season of effective play under his belt. You can’t knock him for that. </p>
<h4 id="7llO6e">6. Masataka Yoshida (Previous Rank: 1)</h4>
<p id="UM8t8k">Yoshida has had really high highs mixed with some middling valleys, but his first three months in MLB have been a success overall. Yoshida was merely an average offensive player in June, netting a 102 wRC+ during the month. But he still leads the team in wRC+ on the season (136) and continues to get the bat on the ball even after a slight uptick in his strikeout rate in June. </p>
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<img alt="Boston Red Sox v Toronto Blue Jays" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/emdylus6s1E7hFvLl9xASKvECyc=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24774117/1511549173.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images</cite>
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<h4 id="0IjWaP">5. Justin Turner (Previous Rank: 4)</h4>
<p id="fIYDeE">The power is back for Turner, who has already matched his season long home run total from a year ago after launching six bombs last month alone. Thanks to the power surge, Turner had a very strong June, recording a 131 wRC+ and slashing .288/.336/.529, which isn’t too far off from his production for the year to this point (.282/.354/.461, 121 wRC+). </p>
<h4 id="jd1hOk">4. Rafael Devers (Previous Rank: 5)</h4>
<p id="9Fr3vR">Devers has come out of the dive he suffered in May and is back to being a star. Too bad it didn’t happen before All Star voting wrapped up. Devers launched another six homers in June, adding to his team-leading total (20) and perhaps even more encouragingly, he started taking more walks. Considering Devers has a higher wRC+ in July than any other month during his career, we might be in for quite the spectacle in the next few weeks. </p>
<h4 id="UkQPU0">3. James Paxton (Previous Rank: 7)</h4>
<p id="prKsTB">James Paxton didn’t seem like the guy to bet on to be the ace of the staff at the halfway mark, but that’s just what Big Maple has been. He leads all Red Sox pitchers in fWAR (1.4) despite making only nine starts while logging a 2.70 ERA and 3.29 FIP and striking out more than 30 percent of the batters he’s faced. If not for missing some time to start the year, Paxton would likely be No. 1 on this list. </p>
<h4 id="o8Iu0p">2. Alex Verdugo (Previous Rank: 3)</h4>
<p id="8OFIS3">Verdugo has been the Red Sox’s metronome this season. In the midst of Turner and Devers sending missiles over the fence and Paxton and Bello forming a lethal one-two combination at the top of the rotation, Verdugo led the Red Sox in fWAR in June while tying for the team lead in wRC+ (133) with Casas. But he didn’t just have a nice June, as he also tops the roster in fWAR for the season overall and has had at least a 115 wRC+ in all three months. Too bad this isn’t just an exercise is ranking folks by fWAR. </p>
<h4 id="JQmkBq">1. Brayan Bello (Previous Rank: 6)</h4>
<p id="s456z7">Bello has been a godsend and has figured out this whole MLB pitching thing right when the Red Sox needed him. Now if only they had three other starters like him. Following another seven-inning effort on Wednesday (his fourth in his last five outings), Bello is now sporting a 3.04 ERA and 3.78 FIP and that’s without the elite strikeout stuff he displayed in the minor leagues. This ranking is built as much on Bello’s performance as it is on his potential because as good as he’s been, he could get even better, and that’s deserving of the top spot. </p>
<p id="klRICZ"><em>Note: Unless otherwise noted, all statistics are from before games on July 6. </em></p>
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https://www.overthemonster.com/2023/7/7/23785843/boston-red-sox-player-power-rankings-brayan-bello-alex-verdugo-james-paxton-rafael-deversPhil Neuffer2023-06-02T07:36:37-04:002023-06-02T07:36:37-04:00Red Sox Player Power Rankings: Macho Man Magic
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<figcaption>Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>With two months of the season in the books, whose stock is rising and who needs to bounce back? </p> <p id="JIPinZ">Welcome back to the second edition of the 2023 <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Boston Red Sox</a> Player Power Rankings. A lot has happened since April’s version and yet the Red Sox are still a team hovering around .500. With a 5-4 loss to the <a href="https://www.redreporter.com/">Cincinnati Reds</a> on Wednesday, the Red Sox officially ended May with a 28-27 overall record, a run differential of +9 and an 18.3 percent chance of making the playoffs. </p>
<p id="idRG5k">Being mediocre can sometimes be conflated with being boring, but the Red Sox still had some fun during May, even if there were also plenty of brutal moments. Now that they have <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2023/6/1/23744264/boston-turns-its-lonely-eyes-to-the-red-sox">all the attention of Boston</a> back following some actually brutal playoff exits by the <a href="https://www.celticsblog.com">Celtics</a> and the Bruins, here’s a look at who’s been creating that fun I mentioned, as well as who’s been struggling and everything in between. </p>
<p id="3dR5CS">Before we get into the rankings, a quick note on eligibility. Players were only eligible for this list if they made at least one appearance at the MLB level with the Red Sox in May and are still on the roster (sorry, Zack Littell, and not so sorry, Ryan Brasier). That means folks like Yu Chang, Zack Kelly and Adam Duvall who were featured in April’s power rankings are unfortunately on the outside looking in this time around. However, it looks like <a href="https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/06/red-soxs-adam-duvall-on-best-stretch-of-career-i-got-to-a-different-place.html">Duvall will be back soon</a>, so chin up. Now to the rankings:</p>
<h4 id="myyKJA">32. Bobby Dalbec (Previous Rank: 30)</h4>
<p id="5IX9Jx">Hey, at least he made the list. </p>
<h4 id="hoPExK">31. Joely Rodríguez (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="w2Ay6H">Rodríguez made his first appearance with the Red Sox on May 17 after dealing with an injury that kept him out to start the campaign. The results so far have not been great, with the lefty sporting an 18.00 ERA in May. Small sample sizes, am I right? </p>
<h4 id="nWOnpt">30. Christian Arroyo (Previous Rank: 25)</h4>
<p id="cZkpNx">Arroyo had a 196 wRC+ in May ... across nine plate appearances, the last of which came on May 6. Arroyo is currently in Triple-A rehabbing from a hamstring injury.</p>
<h4 id="VoKjZd"> 29. Brennan Bernardino (Previous Rank: 26)</h4>
<p id="VaGPPi">For a few seconds there, Bernardino seemed like he could be a surprisingly solid reliever, but that wasn’t to be. Despite a 3.38 ERA in 13 <sup>1</sup>⁄<sub>2</sub> innings this season, the 31-year-old southpaw is back in the minors, though he did get a brief recall toward the end of May. </p>
<h4 id="erXc0K">28. Richard Bleier (Previous Rank: 28)</h4>
<p id="TIKEIH">Bleier stays still in the rankings, with an injury limiting his playing time. However, he wasn’t all that good when he was healthy (4.91 ERA, 7.78 FIP in 7 <sup>1</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings in May). </p>
<h4 id="mNe855">27. Ryan Sherriff (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="08ZWn2">How great is the last name Sherriff for a pitcher? Sherriff recently rejoined the team to replace Corey Kluber, who went on the paternity list. Sherriff has thrown all of 4 <sup>2</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings this season, all in May, but at least he’s been solid in such a meager amount of time (1.93 ERA, 2.64 FIP). </p>
<h4 id="HxSaQV">26. Pablo Reyes (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="slAfpf">The Red Sox don’t need Shohei Ohtani when they have their own two-way player in Reyes. </p>
<div id="vFEkUg">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Pablo Reyes is pitching the ninth for the Red Sox.</p>— Alex Speier (@alexspeier) <a href="https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1658289693740396544?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 16, 2023</a>
</blockquote>
<script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div>
<p id="iwGhDr">(Just kidding. Please come to Boston, Shohei. Can you handle some minutes for the Celtics, as well?)</p>
<h4 id="C7ttAd">25. Corey Kluber (Previous Rank: 22)</h4>
<p id="TWzpC6">Stepping away from baseball, congratulations to Kluber and his wife <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/red-soxs-corey-kluber-goes-on-paternity-leave/">on their new child</a>. </p>
<p id="wzZh78">On the baseball side, Kluber was finally demoted to the bullpen after his struggles as a starter stretched beyond what could be classified as early season rust. In four starts in May, the veteran right-hander posted a 5.60 ERA while striking out 14 batters and walking 10 in 17 2/3 innings. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Cincinnati Reds v Boston Red Sox" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/DQabXp0v9Raktn787KQ9HwD_vhU=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24697429/1258300732.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
<h4 id="uyhL8r">24. Justin Garza (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="8xzFsP">Garza didn’t give up a run in his first five appearances out of the bullpen after making his season debut on May 16. He was then tagged for two runs (one earned) by the Cincinnati Reds on May 30, giving him a 1.42 ERA across 6 <sup>1</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings for the month (and the season). </p>
<h4 id="B6VxVz"><strong>23. Reese McGuire (Previous Rank: 12)</strong></h4>
<p id="GimvUP">McGuire did hit .270 in May, but the rest of his offensive production has been terrible. He is striking out on a little more than 30 percent of the time while walking at a 3.4 percent clip overall this season. In May, he accumulated a 63 wRC+ while striking out at an even higher rate than he did in April and walking almost never. <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2023/6/1/23745154/should-the-red-sox-give-jorge-alfaro-a-chance">Is it time for Jorge Alfaro?</a> </p>
<h4 id="MpYmq2">22. Enrique Hernández (Previous Rank: 15)</h4>
<p id="PLszTA">It’s getting difficult to see why Hernández is getting regular playing time other than reputation and necessity. After a terrible April at the plate, he was even worse in May, posting just a 62 wRC+. Making matters worse, his defense at shortstop <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheathletic.com%2F4569728%2F2023%2F05%2F31%2Fred-sox-bad-defense-kike-hernandez%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.overthemonster.com%2F2023%2F6%2F2%2F23745685%2Fboston-red-sox-player-power-rankings-masataka-yoshida-chris-sale-alex-verdugo-rafael-devers-paxton" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">continues to be a sore spot</a>. </p>
<h4 id="z60UDh">21. Nick Pivetta (Previous Rank: 16)</h4>
<p id="oj1ZbE">Like Kluber, Pivetta also lost his spot in the rotation and is now pitching exclusively out of the bullpen. He’ll likely get some spot starting work as the season wears on, and he could even win back a rotation spot, but for now, he’s a long reliever. On the plus side, he has a 2.89 ERA in 9 <sup>1</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings since being demoted. </p>
<h4 id="wsc6hZ">20. Enmanuel Valdez (Previous Rank: 27)</h4>
<p id="3pWauB">Valdez tied for the team-lead in home runs in May with four, launching his last one on Wednesday against the Reds. Thanks to the relative power surge, Valdez has been essentially a league average hitter while holding down the starting second base job most games. His defense still needs a lot of work, but the 24-year-old is holding his own overall. </p>
<h4 id="rKLiII">19. John Schreiber (Previous Rank: 11)</h4>
<p id="fAGzWX">Schreiber was still slinging it before an arm injury halted his season and put him on the 15-day injured list. He didn’t give up a run while striking out 21 in 17 innings this season prior to the injury. </p>
<h4 id="7xXiyC">18. Raimel Tapia (Previous Rank: 21)</h4>
<p id="ztnqan">Sometimes just coming in to work every day and doing your job will earn you a promotion. While moving up three slots in these power rankings may not be the biggest honor, Tapia has been solid as plug-and-play outfielder, batting .293 and providing decent defense in May. He still isn’t getting on base enough or hitting for any power, but it’s tough to fault a bench player for producing a nearly league average offensive line while providing flexibility in the outfield. </p>
<h4 id="2LbjKY">17. Kutter Crawford (Previous Rank: 7)</h4>
<p id="kxGqDW">Crawford dealt with an injury and missed some time in May, so he only logged 6 <sup>1</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings during the month. It’s not worth making too big a deal about that small a stretch, as Crawford still has an impressively low walk rate and solid strikeout production overall this season, but his peripherals did look a little less impressive in May. </p>
<h4 id="zy9zFh">16. Triston Casas (Previous Rank: 23)</h4>
<p id="PKIZrM">Casas is still playing below the lofty expectations he’ll always carry as a much-touted prospect, but he is taking baby steps forward, posting a 107 wRC+ in May. Could a legitimate breakout be around the corner? </p>
<h4 id="g5o0Gm">15. Garrett Whitlock (Previous Rank: 17)</h4>
<p id="33Ttf8">I’ll admit, Whitlock’s move up the rankings, however slight, is partially built on his track record before this year. While he only made one start in May, he looked pretty good in doing so, allowing just one earned run over five innings last Saturday against the <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a>. He’s had a very up and down year in 2023, in large part due to injuries, but when he’s healthy, Whitlock can be a front of the rotation starter still. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Cincinnati Reds v Boston Red Sox" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/HYMg8lAyvQCJzRq7F21lMub4cWs=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24697438/1258339214.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
<h4 id="Ne8vr2">14. Josh Winckowski (Previous Rank: 6) </h4>
<p id="7IH3tu">Josh Winckowski has continued to be a Swiss army knife in the bullpen, even closing a few games in May. He’s also still testing the theory that strikeouts aren’t really necessary when you can induce groundballs and avoid walks. However, the right-hander slipped a bit in May, recording a 3.14 ERA (that’s still good!) compared with a sub-2.00 mark in April. </p>
<h4 id="cuL9NM">13. Jarren Duran (Previous Rank: 3)</h4>
<p id="cELGSg">Let’s not panic. Nobody actually thought Duran was going to hit .400 all year and he has still been an above average hitter on the whole (116 wRC+). However, he started to fall back into some bad habits in May, striking out 33 percent of the time. Thankfully, his speed and improved defense will keep him gainfully employed for the time being, so if he can reverse May’s regression, he’ll be back in the top of these rankings in no time. </p>
<h4 id="jBLGRy">12. Tanner Houck (Previous Rank: 9)</h4>
<p id="OzgQTc">Houck had an absolutely immaculate outing against the <a href="https://www.halosheaven.com/">Los Angeles Angels</a> on May 22, striking out eight batters and allowing just one earned run in six innings. However, his other three starts from the month were duds. Houck is second among Red Sox pitchers in fWAR this season and his xFIP is more than a run and a half better than his ERA, so there is reason to believe in him, but it’s still tough to entirely trust him, even if he is capable of greatness from time to time. </p>
<h4 id="s0D8Xz">11. Chris Martin (Previous Rank: 20) </h4>
<p id="I3FcPD">Martin looked as advertised in May. The veteran reliever pounded the strike zone, didn’t walk many folks and racked up outs in high leverage situations. He didn’t allow a single run and collected six holds (the most forgettable of baseball stats) across 7 <sup>2</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> total innings. So, even if his overall stat line for the year is still wanting, Martin looks like he’s back on track. </p>
<h4 id="OsxBDb">10. Connor Wong (Previous Rank: 14)</h4>
<p id="mOhRqM">Connor Wong, power hitter. Wong smashed four dingers during May, including two in one game against the <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/">Toronto Blue Jays</a> on May 2. The fireworks allowed him to finish May with a 121 wRC+ for the month despite a .271 on-base percentage. Overall, Wong has been a slightly above average hitter this season with a solid glove (four defensive runs saved), even if his framing has been suspect. <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2023/5/8/23715190/hiding-from-the-regression-monster-red-sox-analysis-alex-verdugo-rafael-devers">The other shoe will likely drop on his offensive profile</a>, but let’s bask in the good times while we can. </p>
<h4 id="LgsDF4">9. Rob Refsnyder (Previous Rank: 18)</h4>
<p id="MCs3VF">Despite being relegated to mostly a platoon role, Refsnyder absolutely raked in May, producing a .400/.500/.514 slash line in 42 plate appearances, good enough for a 186 wRC+. Refsnyder did most of that damage by embarrassing left-handers, just as he’s done all season, with a 167 wRC+ against southpaws and just a 53 wRC+ against right-handers. All that lefty mashing allowed Refsnyder to rank fourth on the whole team in fWAR in May and earn a coveted spot in the top 10 of these rankings. </p>
<h4 id="AnuN3f">8. Kenley Jansen (Previous Rank: 4)</h4>
<p id="fvVUym">After looking like he jumped into a time machine back to 2016 during the first month of the season, Jansen came back down to earth in May. He had an ERA of 6.43 in the month and walked more than 10 batters per nine innings. But most of that can be blamed on two implosions in the middle of the month against the <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">St. Louis Cardinals</a>. Jansen might not be having the 2021 Buster Posey-esque renaissance we were dreaming of a month ago, but he is still one of the best relievers on the roster. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Cincinnati Reds v Boston Red Sox" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/IcyHSpDqsHFe33gKNYalxwoHn5U=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24697439/1258338925.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
<h4 id="DXaZSp">7. James Paxton (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)</h4>
<p id="n2Lj6R">Speaking of renaissances, the Big Maple is back! In his first start since April of 2021, Paxton struck out nine batters across five innings of two-run baseball against the Cardinals on May 12. In his four starts overall, he’s struck out 27 batters in 19 innings and aside from a stinker against the Angels on May 24, he’s looked pretty solid. Maybe the long wait for Paxton is actually going to pay dividends. </p>
<h4 id="ADuJ5I">6. Brayan Bello (Previous Rank: 24)</h4>
<p id="mcXrl5">This surge up the rankings is built as much on belief in Bello’s future as his performance. Speaking of performance, *whispers* Bello has been the best Red Sox starter beyond Chris Sale recently. The 24-year-old right-hander has a 2.67 ERA in his last five starts, including a massively impressive effort against the Angels in which he allowed two earned runs over seven innings while striking out six batters. Bello still needs to limit his walk numbers a bit more and his peripheral numbers aren’t as stellar as his ERA, but all in all, the vibes are, as the kids say, good. </p>
<h4 id="cVsV6f">5. Rafael Devers (Previous Rank: 2)</h4>
<p id="1p7HtY">He’s still Rafael Devers, but the face of the Red Sox has not been himself recently. Devers had just a 90 wRC+ in May and even with 13 home runs and the third most RBI in MLB (47) on the season already, overall, he is still sitting at just a tick above league average offensively. He’s still hitting the ball hard, ranking in the 95th percentile in MLB in average exit velocity, but he’s swinging and missing too much and walking at a career-low rate. Devers is too good not to figure things out, but it’s been tough sledding for him recently. </p>
<h4 id="sRUM0A">4. Justin Turner (Previous Rank: 8)</h4>
<p id="8DI1AJ">Justin Turner is being Justin Turner, a solid and dependable offensive force in the middle of the lineup. He tied with Wong and Valdez for the most home runs among Red Sox batters in May and had a 113 wRC+, helping to boost his overall offensive stat line for the year. Consistently solid play may not be exciting, but it’s something the Red Sox need given the wide variance in performance across the bulk of the roster. </p>
<h4 id="OMNmVz">3. Alex Verdugo (Previous Rank: 1)</h4>
<p id="EKAEQS">Verdugo has been consistent as well, following up his strong showing in April with a .276/.364/.425 slash line and 115 wRC+ in May. Verdugo has already surpassed his fWAR total from last season and still leads the Red Sox in that metric, with his high contact approach consistently allowing him to make a positive impact at the plate while his glove remains solid. </p>
<h4 id="juYvkR">2. Chris Sale (Previous Rank: 13)</h4>
<p id="77FteZ"><em>Editor’s Note: Does it count as jinxing someone if the article isn’t published before something bad happens? This piece was written prior to Thursday’s game, which Sale left early due to shoulder soreness. While the following entry still holds true for last month, we’ll have to wait with baited breath to see how seriously this latest malady is and how it will impact what was looking like a return to form for Sale. </em></p>
<p id="P1FXYL">If Paxton was back in May then Sale was super back. The lanky lefty pitched as well as he has in years in May, striking out 10.38 batters per nine innings while putting up a 2.42 ERA (3.17 FIP) across 26 innings. What’s been most encouraging is the return to life of Sale’s fastball. His velocity is up slightly and he’s utilizing the pitch effectively, tallying 6.3 fastball runs above average in May. Sale’s most recent start only lasted five innings and his strikeout total only got to three, but in his three starts before that, he averaged seven innings and nine strikeouts per game with an ERA of 2.57. That’s ace level stuff.</p>
<h4 id="L8TBK8">1. Masataka Yoshida (Previous Rank: 5) </h4>
<p id="DuUoDo">There isn’t a more fun batter to watch on the Red Sox right now than Yoshida, who is slashing .317/.391/.508 with a 145 wRC+ on the season. Yoshida was on an entirely different planet in May, slashing a ridiculous .354/.410/.552 with a 162 wRC+. The most incredible aspect of his game is how infrequently he strikes out. If MLB wants to see more balls in play, then they need more players like Yoshida, who is fifth in strikeout rate among qualified hitters in MLB (10.1 percent). The Red Sox are currently tied for eight in MLB in wRC+ as a team and it’s hard to think they’d be anywhere close to that without Yoshida. Long live the Macho Man. </p>
<p id="0hdynK"><em>Note: Unless otherwise noted, all statistics are from before games on June 1. </em></p>
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https://www.overthemonster.com/2023/6/2/23745685/boston-red-sox-player-power-rankings-masataka-yoshida-chris-sale-alex-verdugo-rafael-devers-paxtonPhil Neuffer