Over the Monster: All Posts by Keaton DeRocherBut Can He Pitch?https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/32934/otm-fv.jpg2023-04-06T09:17:19-04:00https://www.overthemonster.com/authors/keaton-derocher/rss2023-04-06T09:17:19-04:002023-04-06T09:17:19-04:00The Red Sox Pre-Cap: Recapping The Pirates, Previewing the Tigers
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<figcaption>Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The Pre-Cap Podcast is back with a look back at the series against the Pirates, and a look ahead to the series against the Tigers. </p> <p id="xaBmZe">The Pre-Cap Podcast is back! And just in time to recap a series sweep at the hands of the Pirates. </p>
<p id="O2JIRB">The scorching hot <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> bats forgot to keep going after the first inning of game 1, in which Devers, Casas, and Yoshida all went deep. After that, the bats failed to do much of anything for the rest of the series. Keaton and Dan dive into Crawford's rough outing, and the bullpen usage, as well as the Red Sox struggles to defend stolen bases and the lack of attempting their own.</p>
<p id="OrppRj">In game two, Pivetta gave us a very Piivetta start and the bats were quiet once again. Game three was deja vu all over again right down to the score, as the Sox offense got nothing done while Kluber improved on his first outing but still had some room to improve. </p>
<p id="PwQL5A">Lastly, Keaton and Dan preview the matchup vs the Tigers and how the Red Sox can take advantage of their lackluster lineup. Is today the day that Chris Sale shakes off the rust and starts to become CHRIS SALE again? Let’s hope so. </p>
<p id="5zRa3r">Don’t forget to subscribe to the Monsters Of Sox podcast network so you never miss an episode!</p>
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https://www.overthemonster.com/2023/4/6/23672232/the-red-sox-pre-cap-recapping-the-pirates-previewing-the-tigersKeaton DeRocherDan Secatore2022-12-13T14:02:24-05:002022-12-13T14:02:24-05:00Keaton DeRocher Processes His Feelings Through Art Therapy (GIF Art Therapy...)
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<p>Because you can’t just bury the grief. . . </p> <p id="wPyu6Q">People grieve in different ways. For example, when Xander Bogaerts left, a bunch of writers on this site wrote some elegant words to say goodbye. While I, on the other hand, chose to make a bunch of gifs of things I found amusing and post them in our company Slack. Then Dan made me put them into an article for everyone to see. Then, in an effort to solidify our status as the intellectual fan’s <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> site — as the destination for high-brow discussion that mixes art, science, and social commentary with on-field analysis — he hired a well-known cultural critic to analyze my work. </p>
<p id="X4E8s8">I don’t know if he did this because he enjoyed my GIFs, or as punishment to embarrass me. But either way here they are, my GIFs, along with critiques from Cameron Berenton-Milloy, who graduated from NYU with a degree in Prestige TV Podcasting, and has made GIFs for some of the most influential sites on the internet, including FuzzKill, BranchPop, PinkGarbage, and the Wall Street Journal. </p>
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<p id="U1U2x2"><em><strong>Cameron Berenton-Milloy:</strong></em><em> The best GIFs subvert our expectations of what the genre can and should be. They surprise us and make us reconsider our preconceived notions of the world. They make us look deeper. Here, DeRocher starts with a simple premise: Xander Bogaerts has come into a newfound fortune. But look closer: the fortune consists of a stack of bills shaped like a bed. Bogaerts has made his bed, and now must lie in it. What seemed to be a happy scene (note the smile) reveals itself as something darker, as Bogaerts’ bed is, by virtue of being made of money, the product of late-stage capitalism and the exploitations inherent therein. A masterpiece. </em></p>
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<p id="XCWo8f"><em><strong>CBM: </strong></em><em>Where is the train going? We don’t know, and that mystery lends this GIF a certain power. Oh, what’s that? It’s going to San Diego? Like to the beach or something? Or the zoo? Sorry, I don’t follow football. </em></p>
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<p id="ioN6FA"><em><strong>CBM</strong></em><em>: This appears to be a commentary on relative merits of skull shapes. Is this about phrenology? I don’t think I like this. I’m not touching this. </em></p>
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<p id="B1OsXp"><em><strong>CBM</strong></em><em>: This, on the other hand, is clearly a work of significant value. Take in the scene: we are at what appears to be a yard sale. A pushy neighbor attempts to complete a sale. But what is he selling? A family photograph. He is, in effect, attempting to sell his memories, his own sense of self. Like all of us, he attempting to break free from the past. </em></p>
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<p id="EmiamG"><em><strong>CBM</strong></em><em>: Another skull shape one. Not doing this. I’ve made it too far to be canceled now. </em></p>
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<p id="Mm47Cp"><em><strong>CBM: </strong></em><em>This one appears to be in conversation with the yard sale piece above, for what else are we doing when we break free of the past but leaving?</em></p>
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<p id="MZ8dhY"><em><strong>CBM: </strong></em><em>Ah, now we see that this is actually a connected series (a GIF triptych, or will there be more?) In the previous piece, the subject left his past behind. In this one, we are forced to confront the people and lives that remain. They grieve, but have no choice but to continue the small, mundane task of living. </em></p>
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<p id="T3ARFM"><em><strong>CBM</strong></em><em>: And what is living but an exercise in overcoming shame? </em></p>
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<p id="spgSkT"><em><strong>CBM: </strong></em><em>It is far more than that, of course. It is also anger, anxiety, an attempt to exert power over another. We see it all so clearly in the above. </em></p>
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<p id="FHyabe"><em><strong>CBM</strong></em><em>: And the only thing that struggle for power does is leave us all unhappy. </em></p>
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<p id="CGtjUK"><em><strong>CBM</strong></em><em>: How do we overcome that elemental unhappiness? By moving on? By letting go? By hanging out by the pool? This GIF brings us to our conclusion, but leaves us with more questions than answers, as all great GIFs do. </em></p>
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https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/12/13/23501919/keaton-derocher-processes-his-feelings-through-art-therapy-gif-art-therapyKeaton DeRocher2022-12-05T11:03:18-05:002022-12-05T11:03:18-05:00Believe It Or Not, The 2022 Boston Red Sox Were Good At Baserunning
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<figcaption>Photo by David Berding/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>In a season where not a lot of things went right, the Sox were actually pretty good on the base paths. </p> <p id="7tR34L">At the beginning of November, I tossed out a trusty poll to gauge the feeling of the general public on the <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> baserunning ability:</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">I'm curious about the general perception of this topic so I thought, polls are fun. Were the 2022 Red Sox good base runners?</p>— OverTheMonster (@OverTheMonster) <a href="https://twitter.com/OverTheMonster/status/1588531080587771905?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 4, 2022</a>
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<p id="296TvX">The results were about what I was feeling and expected, so it would appear public perception was generally in line with my hypothesis that this was an area for the Red Sox could very much improve.</p>
<p id="q74rpr">The impetus for the poll was a simple question from our dear leader Dan Secatore about where to find some baserunning stats for his piece on how <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/9/20/23362347/theres-still-hope-for-red-sox-outfielder-jarren-duran">Jarren Duran can find himself again</a>. While helping Dan with his research, I ended up going down a massive rabbit hole that much like Alice In Wonderland herself, had me questioning my very reality. Were the 2022 Red Sox actually good at base running? There were so many things about the 2022 season that were frustrating, and one of those things was making a bunch of bone-headed outs on the base paths. I can think of more than a few from just Alex Verdugo himself. But were those just isolated incidents? Psychologists say trauma tends to stick with us more than the good times so maybe this is one of those cases where I’m just remembering the worst of the Red Sox.</p>
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<p id="1iZezo">What ended up surprising me the most, was that the Red Sox tied for third in the majors in making the fewest outs on the bases, with just 34 (this tied them with the <a href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/">Milwaukee Brewers</a>, behind only the <a href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/">San Francisco Giants</a> and <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/">Seattle Mariners</a>). An additional interesting observation about this stat is that it appeared to have no correlation to a team’s overall success. I already mentioned Seattle, but right behind the Red Sox in fourth were the <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Phillies</a>, both of whom were playoff teams last season. At the bottom of the list, however, were the <a href="https://www.draysbay.com/">Tampa Bay Rays</a>, the <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Los Angeles Dodgers</a>, and the <a href="https://www.talkingchop.com/">Atlanta Braves</a> — three more playoff teams. Regardless of whether or not it translates to full-season success, just the fact that the Red Sox, in reality, were making so few outs on the bases was mind-boggling.</p>
<p id="cbpnVN">In the words of the great Billie Mays, but wait there’s more! The Red Sox were also tenth in bases taken with 139. That is advancing bases on fly balls, passed balls, wild pitches, balks, and defensive indifference. That sure seems like smart base running. They were also tied for second in the majors in Run Scoring Percentage (percentage of times a base runner scored a run) at 32%. They were also above league average in going from first to either third or home on a single, first to home on a double, and second to home on a single. And to add a cherry on top of this baserunning sundae, they led the majors in going second to third on a single, and first to third on a double.</p>
<p id="5VLVYy">Now, with some of these stats, not everything credits the base runner. Going first to third on a double, for example, seems intuitively more of a credit to the hitter advancing the runner than the runner getting there safely. But the Red Sox as a team were clearly very good at judging where balls were going to land relative to the opposing team’s fielders and advancing as far as they could. Collectively, they were a smart baserunning team. I absolutely underestimated in them in this, and should give them credit for being good at something in a season full of downers. </p>
<p id="4g64BN">Another interesting takeaway I had from this rabbit hole was the gap in opportunities versus attempts to steal a base. The Red Sox were fifth in the majors in stolen base opportunities (that is, times when a runner was on first or second with the next base open) at 2,345. But they were just 25th in stolen base attempts, only attempting 72 attempts on the season. I should note that, while the gap in the actual numbers themselves is massive, every team in the majors had a similar gap — it was more the gap in rankings that struck me; their high ranking in opportunities didn’t translate to a high ranking in attempts. Even when they did attempt steals, though, they weren’t great at them, converting at a just 72% rate, which was 3% below league average. So one could dispute that being cautious in stealing bases was the smart move there. </p>
<p id="7ggNxB">Overall, the conclusion from all these numbers was that, in a very subtle way, the 2022 Red Sox were quite good at baserunning. In a season with so many pain points, it was easy to focus on the negatives — especially when they occurred in such pathetic fashion, as many of their baserunning blunders appeared to do. But the reality was that those blunders were rare, and I think we put too much emphasis on the weight they carried representing the team’s ability as a whole on the base paths. </p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/12/5/23494271/red-sox-statistical-analysis-believe-it-or-not-the-2022-boston-red-sox-were-good-at-baserunningKeaton DeRocher2022-05-04T09:01:00-04:002022-05-04T09:01:00-04:00The Red Seat Podcast: First Month Recap
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<figcaption>Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>In this episode of the show, Keaton and Shelly discuss the first month of the season. </p> <p id="EYzJig">Welcome back to another episode of “The Red Seat” podcast, your podcast for everything Red Sox. On this episode we start by discussing our views on the first month of the season and how we feel how the team stacks up against the rest of the American League East.</p>
<p id="vklGLS">We take a look at the entire Red Sox lineup and really zoom in on the bottom three hitters. What do they do about Bobby Dalbec at first? Is it Triston Casas time? What about Jarren Duran and Jackie Bradley Jr.? Is there anyone else we feel confident in to help boost this group?</p>
<p id="Q0E5vD">After looking at the offense, we take a look at Red Sox bullpen and who <em>the guy </em>is in that group. Is it Hansel Robles? Is it Jake Diekman? Is it Garrett Whitlock, if he’s even in the bullpen? Is there a capital-G Guy there?!?</p>
<p id="wTSEOJ">We hope you enjoyed the show and if you did, make sure you subscribe to us on iTunes, Google Podcast, Spotify, or Stitcher. Also give the show a review. Five star reviews help us get in more ears and grow the show. Be sure to also follow us on Twitter. You can find Keaton <a href="https://twitter.com/TheSpokenKeats"><strong>@TheSpokenKeats</strong></a><strong>, </strong>and you can find me <a href="https://twitter.com/ShellyV_643">@shellyv_643</a>.<strong> </strong>Thanks for listening! </p>
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https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/5/4/23056213/boston-red-sox-podcast-april-recapKeaton DeRocherShelly Verougstraete2022-04-29T09:06:28-04:002022-04-29T09:06:28-04:00The Red Sox Pre-Cap Podcast: Recapping The Blue Jays, Previewing The Orioles
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<p>A look back at a tough four-game set in Toronto.</p> <p id="Fxg01t">Welcome again to the latest Red Sox Pre-Cap Podcast. Make sure to subscribe to the OTM Podcast Network to hear the latest from every series, as well as a preview of what’s next on the docket for the Red Sox.</p>
<p id="wbq5hb">The Red Sox dropped three out of four to the Blue Jays, with all three of their losses coming in rather painful fashion. In game one, Nathan Eovaldi had cruised through seven innings on only 78 pitches, allowing two runs without a walk and striking out five, but was pulled in a tie game in the eighth inning. Matt Strahm then allowed a couple of hits, and with one out and two on Tyler Danish was brought in to face the meat of the Blue Jays order. He was immediately punished, giving up a single to load the bases before a grand slam to Bo Bichette which all but sealed the game. </p>
<p id="VOqydw"><a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/4/25/23041998/boston-red-sox-toronto-blue-jays-nathan-eovaldi-bo-bichette-tyler-danish-jose-berrios"><em><strong>Game Story</strong></em></a></p>
<p id="81qBTu">In hame two, the Nick Pivetta built on his strong finish to his last outing, allowing only three hits and striking out six over 4 <sup>2</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings pitched. The Red Sox offense gave some separation in the eighth, too, with a four-run inning to take a 5-2 lead. However, the save was blown by Jake Deikman in the ninth and George Springer walked it off in the 10th for another painful loss.</p>
<p id="Ruf5U3"><a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/4/26/23043914/boston-red-sox-toronto-blue-jays-jake-diekman-george-springer-xander-bogaerts"><em><strong>Game Story</strong></em></a></p>
<p id="EzZYw5">In game three the Red Sox offense finally came alive with a four-hit day from Xander Bogaerts and multiple hits from Devers and Martinez backing another gem from Michael Wacha en route to a 7-1 win. </p>
<p id="018phs"><a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/4/27/23045706/boston-red-sox-toronto-blue-jays-score-michael-wacha-jd-martinez-xander-bogaerts-ross-stripling"><em><strong>Game Story</strong></em></a></p>
<p id="uDkz2Z">In the final game of the series, Garrett Whitlock got the start and went three innings, only allowing an unearned run, but that would be enough for the Blue Jays as Alek Manoah and the Toronto bullpen held the Red Sox offense to only four hits and took the finale 1-0.</p>
<p id="B0dV4t"><a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/4/28/23047201/boston-red-sox-toronto-blue-jays-alek-manoah-garrett-whitlock-xander-bogaerts-jd-martinez-alex-cora"><em><strong>Game Story</strong></em></a></p>
<p id="cFWjjm">Up next for the Red Sox is a three-game set away vs the Orioles. Don’t forget to subscribe to the Over The Monster podcast network so you never miss an episode!</p>
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https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/4/29/23047768/boston-red-sox-podcast-toronto-blue-jays-series-baltimore-orioles-previewKeaton DeRocherBob Osgood2022-02-28T10:30:00-05:002022-02-28T10:30:00-05:00One Big Question: Can Tanner Houck find a way to get through lineups three times?
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<p>At least some of the time?</p> <p id="ZAMc4t"><em>Welcome to the annual Over The Monster One Big Question season preview series. Over the next 40(ish) days, we will be running through every player on the </em><em>Boston Red Sox</em><em> 40-man roster and identifying a key question for them pertaining to the coming season. We will go through the roster in alphabetical order. For the most part, these will run Monday through Friday every week running up to the week before Opening Day, at least as things are scheduled right now. Obviously, the lockout may change the timing of the season, and it also means we will likely see more additions of new faces. If need be, we will add some weekend posts to fit any and all additions to the 40-man before Opening Day. You can catch up with every post by following </em><a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/one-big-question"><em><strong>this link</strong></em></a><em>. With that, today we cover Tanner Houck.</em></p>
<h3 id="nnNrB3">The Question: Can Tanner Houck go deeper into games?</h3>
<p id="LZ875i">I've written a couple of these One Big Question articles already, and this one was the most obvious one to sit down and start typing. I think we’re all pretty well aware of the big speed bump that Tanner Houck has been running into for his entire career and plenty in 2021, because one, it stood out quite a bit to anyone watching his starts, but also two, it was brought up on almost every broadcast for his starts. The third time through the order has had a tendency to smack Houck in the face like a Mike Tyson haymaker, when the righty was even allowed to dabble that deep into a game that is. However, even in today’s era of deep bullpens and quick hooks, to be an effective starter for the Red Sox Tanner Houck needs to figure out a way to navigate through the third time through the order at least some of the time or he will likely have to shift to a bullpen role full-time.</p>
<p id="zXIsCX">This past season, Houck was purely dominant his first time going through an opposing lineup, pitching to a 1.50 ERA, while allowing a minuscule .194 batting average against across 30 innings. Things weren’t <em>quite </em>as strong the second time through, but the now-25-year-old was still very effective posting a 3.81 ERA while allowing a .235 batting average against in 26 innings. Then we get to the third time through through, which granted is a tiny sample hardly worth considering of 2 <sup>2</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings, but Houck was hammered for an ERA of 27.00 a .467 batting average against. Perhaps most notably, the righty allowed as many homers in these situations as in the 56 innings pitched the first two times through the order combined. </p>
<p id="2nd3hX">Again, this is a very small sample but even that fact also speaks to a larger picture that more often than not, Houck simply wasn’t even given the leash to <em>attempt</em> to navigate through the third time through the order in the first place. Of the seven pitchers who started at least nine games for the Red Sox in 2021, Houck ranked dead last in innings per start. Simply put, if Houck wants to remain a part of the Red Sox rotation he has to find a way to get deeper into his starts, which first means earning the trust to even get the chance to show he <em>can </em>go deeper into games.</p>
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<p id="unImXm">There would appear to be a potential solution for this issue for Houck right in at his fingertips (pun intended) — his splitter. Coming into 2021 there was a lot of buzz about Houck’s splitter, a pitch he had started throwing in spring training of 2020 prior to COVID delaying the start of the season to replace his changeup. He was finally able to deploy it in a small fashion in 2020, showing some flashes but really barely utilizing the offering.</p>
<p id="tAw4L2">In 2021, he deployed the pitch more often, more than doubling the usage up to seven percent, per FanGraphs’ pitch tracking, but overall still kept its usage low. It’s possible that 2021 being the former first round pick’s first full season with the pitch he was still feeling it out, but it’s clear he needs to use it more. It’s a simple baseball truism that more pitches allows a pitcher to more comfortably face the same batter multiple times, and the splitter specifically can help Houck’s issues against left-handed batters.</p>
<p id="wZUekr">Now, individual pitch statistics are always a bit shaky as no pitch is thrown in a vacuum, and specifically with his splitter the sample is small. All that said, statistically there seems to be some building blocks. Of his entire arsenal, this splitter had the lowest batting average against by a wide margin, 100 points better than his slider’s batting average against of .159. It also had the second best whiff rate (36.8 percent) to his slider (42.4 percent) and a nearly identical putaway rate (25 percent) to his slider (25.3 percent). Again, this is not to say that the splitter is as good or better than the slider, but there does appear to be something with which he can work. </p>
<p id="wzyUF5">Through Houck’s first two stints in the majors, he’s been mainly been a two-pitch pitcher, which is the main reason he has struggled to get deep into ball games and why many still believe he is ultimately destined for the bullpen. To be an effective major league starter, it <em>really </em>helps to have that third pitch, and Houck has it right now available to him in his arsenal. Now he just needs to get more comfortable with it and utilize it more often.</p>
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<p id="hiFKiZ"><em>Thank you to </em><a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/players/tanner-houck/19879/stats?position=P"><em>FanGraphs</em></a><em> and </em><a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/tanner-houck-656557"><em>Baseball Savant </em></a><em>for statistics in this post.</em></p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/2/28/22939852/red-sox-season-preview-2022-roster-tanner-houck-rotation-bullpen-third-time-through-splitterKeaton DeRocher2022-02-22T10:30:00-05:002022-02-22T10:30:00-05:00One Big Question: Can Darwinzon Hernandez find a way to compensate for the walks?
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<img alt="MLB: Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/17e7NDXNnuFC7R0f8rylO82A4jI=/0x0:3655x2437/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70536480/usa_today_16132594.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The stuff is there. The control? Not so much.</p> <p id="ZAMc4t"><em>Welcome to the annual Over The Monster One Big Question season preview series. Over the next 40(ish) days, we will be running through every player on the </em><em>Boston Red Sox</em><em> 40-man roster and identifying a key question for them pertaining to the coming season. We will go through the roster in alphabetical order. For the most part, these will run Monday through Friday every week running up to the week before Opening Day, at least as things are scheduled right now. Obviously, the lockout may change the timing of the season, and it also means we will likely see more additions of new faces. If need be, we will add some weekend posts to fit any and all additions to the 40-man before Opening Day. You can catch up with every post by following </em><a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/one-big-question"><em><strong>this link</strong></em></a><em>. With that, today we cover Darwinzon Hernandez.</em></p>
<h3 id="ejmpNm">The Question: Can Darwinzon Hernandez work around the walks?</h3>
<p id="LGDn2J">We’ve seen enough of Darwinzon Hernadez at this point to be tantalized by the stuff the left-handed reliever possesses. We’ve also seen enough to be frustrated by the lack of consistency as well as the sky high walk rates. When Hernadez is on, he’s very much on and is throwing with elite stuff, which we saw in a stretch from May 15 through July 11 of last season where, over 18 <sup>1</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings he struck out 23 posting a 1.47 ERA and a .164 batting average against. But on the other side of the coin, Hernandez followed that performance up by finishing off the season by walking more than seven batters per nine innings (along with three hit batters) and posting an earned run average of 5.40 over his final 10 innings of the year. </p>
<p id="4uGRzt">At this point, I think we’re beyond hoping for more consistency and fewer walks (although the walk rate is so astronomical there has to be <em>some </em>room for improvement) so for this One Big Question let’s search for an alternative. Can find he some way to compensate for the high walk rates and still be an effective, and potential late-inning, reliever for the Boston Red Sox?</p>
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<p id="ldcKYF">One potential avenue for Hernandez to explore is mixing his pitches more. In 2021, he threw his fastball 73 percent of the time, and while he did technically throw other pitches, it’s hard not to be predictable when you’re throwing one pitch <em>that </em>often. So even with him throwing the heat with elite spin and good velocity, hitters just sit on it and more often than not end up on base. One way to get hitters away from just waiting on an outcome would be to mix in his slider and curveball more often. His slider was the pitch he threw second-most behind his fastball at 21 percent and had identical whiff and put-away rates to his fastball. </p>
<p id="aMc3TM">However, Hernandez can <em>really</em> ramp it up is by mixing his curveball into the arsenal more often. The southpaw only tossed his curveball five percent of the time in 2021, but in that small sample it was by far his most effective pitch. The curve produced godly whiff rate of 50%, and his best put away rate of pitches he threw at least one percent of the time, for a rate of at 27.3 percent. Those rates are likely not sustainable over a larger sample and thrown in a different sequence, but the building blocks for an effective offering appear to be in place.</p>
<p id="KdM9Xl">When pitchers are struggling to find the zone they often turn to trusty number one just to get a ball over the plate, which makes sense as to why Hernandez threw the volume of fastballs he did, but when everyone knows a zig is coming, it’s time to zag. This is especially true when the zag you can turn to is as effective as that curveball was when he threw it in 2021.</p>
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<img alt="Championship Series - Houston Astros v Boston Red Sox - Game Five" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/AdO_AlO1d2LNT0nJNdH0zWD2EL8=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23262620/1347784509.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images</cite>
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<p id="kZGW7e">There are a bunch of examples of high leverage relievers finding ways around high walk rates. For example, in 2021 Kenley Jansen was second in the majors in saves while posting an ERA of 2.22 and a rate of 4.7 walks per nine innings. One of the ways he was able to be successful was by mixing all three of his pitches. He threw his fastball at the lowest rate (58%) he ever has at any point in his career, upping the usages of his secondary offerings and keeping those free baserunners from scoring. Aroldis Chapman and Alex Reyes, meanwhile, were also both able to have success in high-leverage situations and did so while walking more than six batters per nine innings. One other advantage both of those possess is the ability to throw 103 miles an hour, there’s another possible avenue for Hernandez if he can increase his velocity a mere eight or so miles per hour. Piece of cake.</p>
<p id="s3iz5T">I think we’re getting past the point now where we’re hoping Hernandez just develops control or consistency and needs to now look in another direction to compensate for his high walk rate. He has the tools in his belt, and by mixing his pitches more and using his most effective offspeed pitches he can theoretically keep batters more off-balance and away from just sitting on his fastball, and hopefully in turn chase some more pitches off the plate. We’ve been waiting for Hernandez to settle in as a late-inning arm for a few years now. Here’s hoping this is the season it finally happens.</p>
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<p id="f5pmWp">Thank you to <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/players/darwinzon-hernandez/19848/stats?position=P">FanGraphs</a> and <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/darwinzon-hernandez-650382?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb">Baseball Savant</a> for providing statistics used in this post.</p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/2/22/22925580/red-sox-2022-roster-preview-season-bullpen-darwinzon-hernandnez-walks-strikeoutsKeaton DeRocher2022-02-17T10:30:00-05:002022-02-17T10:30:00-05:00One Big Question: Will Jarren Duran get consistent enough at bats to figure out major-league pitching?
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<img alt="Syndication: Worcester Telegram" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/wOlB_GUBmbgMoCA6bP0GFgCwLBo=/0x49:2000x1382/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70520665/usa_today_16850284.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Ashley Green / Telegram & Gazette via Imagn Content Services, LLC</figcaption>
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<p>And should they be given?</p> <p id="cAXv79"><em>Welcome to the annual Over The Monster One Big Question season preview series. Over the next 40(ish) days, we will be running through every player on the </em><em>Boston Red Sox</em><em> 40-man roster and identifying a key question for them pertaining to the coming season. We will go through the roster in alphabetical order. For the most part, these will run Monday through Friday every week running up to the week before Opening Day, at least as things are scheduled right now. Obviously, the lockout may change the timing of the season, and it also means we will likely see more additions of new faces. If need be, we will add some weekend posts to fit any and all additions to the 40-man before Opening Day. You can catch up with every post by following </em><a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/one-big-question"><em><strong>this link</strong></em></a><em>. With that, today we cover Jarren Duran.</em></p>
<h3 id="4ovshk">The Question: Can Jarren Duran get the at bats he needs to figure out major-league pitching?</h3>
<p id="QTR2Qs">Jarren Duran has been on an impressive ascension through the Red Sox system after being drafted in the seventh round back in 2018. In his first full season of pro ball in 2019, the outfielder had earned a promotion to Double-A Portland — already his <em>fourth</em> level of professional baseball by that point! — less than a year after being drafted. Even though there was no minor league season in 2020, Duran was invited to the Alternate Site where working with the Alternate Site coaches, he was able to unlock some power at the plate. </p>
<p id="KS43rN">In 2021, Duran began at Triple-A Worcester and performed well enough to gain promotion to the majors, where the learning curve was steep. In a small sample of 33 games at the highest level, Duran slashed .215/.241/.336 with two homers and two steals. Although it wasn’t the hot start many Red Sox fans were hoping for, this actually just fits the trend of adjustment Duran has made as he’s moved through the minors. </p>
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<p id="16IC72">Knowing the Red Sox are always working to position themselves in win-now mode and how they have handled prospects in the past, it’s worth pondering whether or not they will be able to give Duran the at bats he needs to adjust to major league pitching. It’s also worth pondering if this One Big Question is also a two-parter, the other side being: How long is too long of a leash to give in waiting for those adjustments to occur. </p>
<p id="JnEG2Y">To answer the first part of this question, although Duran mastered Double-A, he didn’t do it in stride and in fact looked quite overmatched over his first month. In his first 111 at bats spanning 29 games at Double-A, he was slashing .216/.281/.261 with only three steals, no homers, and a 32/8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Obviously, adjustment periods for prospects as they jump levels are not uncommon, and after this first month of games, Durn turned on the jets to close out the season on fire, hitting .273 and stealing 25 bases. </p>
<p id="UKHbVu">For the 2020 season, as mentioned before, Duran was invited to the Alternate Site for the Red Sox, where he and other players on the Red Sox 40-man roster (and some off it) were getting tailored coaching, and Duran was being exposed to the most difficult opposition he had seen to that point, even if it wasn’t really changing day-to-day or week-to-week.</p>
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<img alt="Syndication: Worcester Telegram" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-nJSSDgHZvNXx6v_Jld9WIDYfcU=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23252062/usa_today_16850297.jpg">
<cite>Ashley Green / Telegram & Gazette via Imagn Content Services, LLC</cite>
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<p id="Ivp9qz">Although we don’t have a ton of data from the Alternate Site, what we do know is that he performed very well, adjusting the position of his hands and unlocking previously un-scouted power potential. Duran then took his new skills to the Puerto Rican Winter League where he won MVP. This essentially was his adjustment period for Triple-A. Duran was given tailored tutoring for two and a half months facing the level of competition he was going to be seeing to start the 2021 season, and that allowed him more of a head start once the 2021 season began. </p>
<p id="qdqmva">Through the first month and half of the season, Duran was batting .283 with 14 homers and 10 steals, and perhaps just as impressive, had increased his walk rate by four percentage points and kept his strikeout rate exactly in line with his numbers at Double-A showing he had command of the zone. We should mention that power numbers were out of control for everyone in Worcester’s inaugural season, but there was still plenty of positives coming from Duran even with that caveat.</p>
<p id="0nz11k">The summation of all this info is, although Duran struggled in his first taste of the majors, given consistent at bats, he’s been able to figure out the zone and produce at the plate at every single level. The question then becomes, as outlined, whether or not the Red Sox give him those consistent at bats he needs to adjust and also frame the team in win-now mode. As the Red Sox are trying to win games, it’s also worth trying to figure out how long the leash should be in letting Duran work through those kinks. While there are many different paths for prospects to take to get to the majors, Duran has consistently demonstrated his path to success is consistent at-bats to feel out the zone and understand the difficulty of the level. So whenever baseball does get going again, one of the most fascinating storylines around the Red Sox will be just what kind of role they have set for Duran, and when.</p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/2/17/22924639/red-sox-roster-preview-2022-jarren-duran-top-prospect-at-bats-mlbKeaton DeRocher2021-12-30T10:30:00-05:002021-12-30T10:30:00-05:00Potential Offseason Target: Franklin Barreto
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<img alt="MLB: Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4ZipCmn95bxl1bVFp1LnGfnBUxc=/0x30:3472x2345/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70330285/usa_today_15746196.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>A look at a potential upside depth signing.</p> <p id="hug3a3">Admittedly Franklin Barreto is a bit outside the box for this kind of exercise and is not a big-time name like some others we’ve gone through this month, but before you quickly point out how bad he’s been in his short stints in the majors, stick with me on this one. First, I wanted to go deeper than the obvious MLB free agent and trade targets and give myself a challenging player to find. What else is there to do right now as baseball fans, after all? And second, allow me to outline why Barreto actually makes more sense than you might initially think. </p>
<p id="oonaPf">Under Chaim Bloom, the Boston Red Sox have been bringing in potential value where ever they can find in whatever form it may come, including former top prospects who have failed at other organizations such as Danny Santana, Franchy Cordero, and Rob Refsnyder among many others. </p>
<p id="2rdhgT">Barreto also fits this trend as a former top 50 prospect in all of baseball (peaking at number 35 on Baseball America’s rankings) with the <a href="https://www.athleticsnation.com/">Oakland Athletics</a>. It really wasn’t all that long ago that Baretto was one of the hot up-and-coming middle infielders — his last appearance on a top 100 list was prior to the 2018 season — excelling in the minors. Scouting reports from the middle of last decade described him as a potential all-around infielder, sporting only modest power but combining it with speed, defense, and the ability to spray line drives all around the field. However, he could never quite break through to the majors, due to both depth ahead of him at the time as well never really wowing in the at bats he did manage to receive. </p>
<p id="M8uuCb">Barreto continued to produce in the minors, though, posting a career line of .289/.352/.482 with 86 homers and 42 steals. At the major-league level, on the other hand, across four seasons he’s only totaled 101 games and a slash line of .175/.207/.342 with nine homers and four steals. The inconsistent playing time no doubt had an effect on his production, but for a former top prospect, no other word comes to mind but disappointing. </p>
<p id="uBdlfZ">Still, it’s possible Barreto is an ideal change-of-scenery candidate, and he almost got that chance in 2020 when he landed with the <a href="https://www.halosheaven.com/">Los Angeles Angels</a>. Unfortunately for him, he only played in 6 games before suffering a left shoulder injury that caused him to miss the rest of the season and all of 2021. So the idea of him being a change-of-scenery guy is still within the realm of possibility.</p>
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<p id="KYe9lx">The other piece that fits with the Red Sox philosophy is Barreto’s versatility from a defensive perspective. While he has mostly played second base as a pro, he also has a bunch of innings at shortstop as well as some experience at third base. In addition, the most interesting piece here is that, in an attempt to get Barreto on the field more, Oakland started using Barreto in the outfield, getting him innings in center and left field in both the minors and the majors. All of these are positions where the Red Sox would love to have some depth at the major-league and high minor-league level. </p>
<p id="purZh4">Currently, Barreto is a free agent and remarkably he is somehow still only entering his age-26 season. If it works — and admittedly that's huge if given his lackluster major league performance’s and he’s returning from a lost season — it would be a huge win in terms of overall value for the team. Taking the circumstances into account in their totality, bringing in Barreto on a minor-league deal to see if the Red Sox can get anything out of him would be a very on-brand move for Bloom. </p>
<p id="MaCuZU">To sum it up, it may not be a splashy move, and there’s probably a larger chance than not that it doesn’t work out. Still, if the Red Sox are looking for more depth that can cover multiple positions while possessing a modicum of upside, looking at a former top prospect might not be a bad target.</p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2021/12/30/22858573/red-sox-rumors-news-free-agent-franklin-barreto-contractKeaton DeRocher2021-11-17T10:30:00-05:002021-11-17T10:30:00-05:002021 in Review: Tanner Houck can do it all
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<img alt="MLB: Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/9uxdB5Nlz4YwjrgdW6g_TMSjcqI=/0x0:4675x3117/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70154695/usa_today_16797510.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The righty took more steps forward in 2021.</p> <p id="LQ6ynY"><em>Welcome to our 2021 </em><a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/"><em><strong>Boston Red Sox</strong></em></a><em> in Review series. This is, as you can probably guess, where we will be reviewing all of the players who made at least a modest impact on the Red Sox in 2021. Every week day we’ll be deep diving into one player, describing the season in a sentence, looking at the positives from the year as well as negatives, looking back at our one big question from our season preview and looking ahead to the 2022 season. Today we look at Tanner Houck’s 2021 campaign.</em></p>
<h3 id="rAf2EY">2021 in one sentence</h3>
<p id="3u2i3O">Tanner Houck was deployed in a myriad of ways by Alex Cora in 2021, and was able to rise to the occasion.</p>
<h3 id="mjhKPu">The Positives</h3>
<p id="1ouew0">Boy, that slider looked good. Houck’s best pitch took a step forward in 2021, tallying 41 of his 87 strikeouts with the pitch and throwing it with just shy of 100 rpm (in terms of spin rate) more than he did in 2020. He also allowed a minuscule .159 batting average on the pitch and an even lower expected batting average of .144. Along with his devastating slider, Houck deployed a splitter more often this season, which had tremendous success. Houck debuted the splitter in 2020 but only threw it three percent of the time. He kept working on the grip and release over the offseason and ultimately more than doubled its usage in 2021 to 7.4 percent, and had mountains of success when he did. The splitter finished with a .059 batting average against the pitch and a whiff rate of 36.8 percent, his second-best whiff rate by a pitch only to his slider’s 42.4 percent. </p>
<p id="4Ornhg">Houck had also historically struggled with walking batters, but in 2021 he was able to get a handle on them and post his lowest walk rate at any level. In 2020 Houck walked 4.76 batters per nine, and in 2021 he reduced it to 2.74, a full two walks lower than his season prior. That is no small feat.</p>
<p id="145yQm">Also a positive, was Houck’s usage. Alex Cora used Houck primarily as a starter (13 of his 18 appearances) but Cora showed no hesitation in sending Houck out in long relief or in high leverage situations. Houck posted a 3.68 ERA in 58 innings as a starter and a 2.61 mark in 10 innings as a reliever.</p>
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<h3 id="WkKoGv">The Negatives</h3>
<p id="fq6dFI">The well-documented third time through the order. This isn’t a surprise if you watched any of Houck's starts, as he was often pulled prior to the third time through the order, even when he wasn’t really struggling. In total, he only threw 2 <sup>2</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings the third time through the order, but even in that tiny sample size, he was atrocious. He allowed nine runs, eight of those earned, a tight 27.00 ERA, and was hammered to the tune of a .467 batting average. </p>
<p id="aDsDli">In comparison, Houck threw 30 innings through the order the first time and allowed only five runs total. It’s pretty difficult to continually toss a pitcher out there every fifth day that you can only pencil them in for 4 innings pitched because of the cumulative stress that puts on the bullpen leading to overuse of some arms as we saw in 2021. If Houck is to be a starter, he has to be able to get into the fifth inning and beyond on a consistent basis. </p>
<h3 id="10A0YM">The Big Question</h3>
<p id="2cmvPc"><a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2021/3/1/22306931/boston-red-sox-2021-season-preview-tanner-houck-rotation-splitter-triple-a"><em><strong>Can Tanner Houck develop his splitter into a usable pitch?</strong></em></a></p>
<p id="CYO2jF">We talked about this a bit above, but yes he did. There’s probably still more development needed with the pitch to get to a point when he can throw it in nearly any count, but he took a step forward with the offering. That said, it still didn’t help his third time through problem, so that could be the next step for the pitch.</p>
<h3 id="lyGg6J">2022 and Beyond</h3>
<p id="DqYYrl">With the recent departure of Eduardo Rodriguez to the <a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/">Detroit Tigers</a>, the Red Sox have plenty of openings in the starting rotation. Since Houck has already been mostly deployed as a starter, he should be squarely in the mix to open 2022 in the rotation. If Houck can be an effective starter, which I think he can be, then beyond 2022 that is exactly where he’ll remain. If I’m wrong, which I will begrudgingly admit I have been before, there’s also a decent sample size of success as a reliever to fall back on. Either as a starter or a reliever, Tanner Houck's outlook for 2022 and beyond is being an important piece of the puzzle for Alex Cora. </p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2021/11/17/22783629/red-sox-tanner-houck-2021-season-rookie-rotation-bullpen-slider-splitter-third-time-throughKeaton DeRocher