Over the Monster: All Posts by Bob OsgoodBut Can He Pitch?https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/32934/otm-fv.jpg2024-03-28T14:39:49-04:00https://www.overthemonster.com/authors/bob-osgood/rss2024-03-28T14:39:49-04:002024-03-28T14:39:49-04:00The Red Seat: Prediction Time!
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<figcaption>Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Jake, Keaton, and Bob give their 2024 predictions for the Red Sox, as well as MLB standings, playoffs, and awards. </p> <p id="gFWouL">Welcome back to The Red Seat Podcast, episode number 311. This week, Jake Devereaux, Keaton DeRocher, and Bob Osgood are here to make all the 2024 predictions, including the regular season standings, MLB playoffs, season-long awards, and last but quite possibly least, the Boston Red Sox. </p>
<p id="B2XfKV">First, there were a couple of surprises on the Red Sox roster that needed some review. Joely Rodriguez, Chase Anderson, and Bobby Dalbec are IN. Brennan Bernardino, Cooper Criswell, and CJ Cron are OUT. How surprised were we all by each of these moves?</p>
<p id="HphWou">Only one of us picked the Red Sox to have a losing record in 2024, but the playoffs sure seem like a long shot. We also reviewed our Red Sox team MVP, LVP, and best pitcher and defensive player on this year’s team. </p>
<p id="Ca2Ruw">We then discussed each of the six divisions in-depth, giving our individual predictions of standings place, as well as playoff seeding. Not surprisingly, the Central divisions had the most variety, but we also debated the Giants vs. the Diamondbacks, the Mets vs. the Marlins, and the Rangers vs. the Astros. </p>
<p id="0vWoOu">In the AL East, Jake defends his last-place Rays take, while Keaton and Bob both have them in the top two in the division. </p>
<p id="sz4kCM">We wrapped things up by giving our picks for AL and NL MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year, followed by ALCS, NLCS, and World Series predictions. </p>
<p id="FerX5u">If you have a question for an upcoming Red Seat pod, you can email us at redseatpodcast@gmail.com or tweet us. On Twitter, Jake is @DevJake, Keaton is @TheSpokenKeats and Bob is @BobOsgood15. Thanks for listening!</p>
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https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/28/24114281/the-red-seat-red-sox-podcast-prediction-time-mlb-opening-day-2024Bob OsgoodKeaton DeRocherJake Devereaux2024-03-22T08:11:42-04:002024-03-22T08:11:42-04:00The Red Seat’s Roster Preview
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<figcaption>Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Jake, Keaton, and Bob discuss the anticipated Opening Day roster for the Red Sox, as well as highlight some good and bad Spring Training performances. </p> <p id="voPsyP">Welcome back to The Red Seat Podcast, episode number 310. This week, Jake Devereaux, Keaton DeRocher, and Bob Osgood are here to preview the Opening Day roster from top to bottom for the <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Boston Red Sox</a>. </p>
<p id="0M1UO2">With spring training winding down, we are just seven days away from Opening Day in Seattle. Unlike past years, there are not many roster spots that are in question, in part due to the injuries to Vaughn Grissom and Rob Refsnyder which will likely allow <em>both</em> Pablo Reyes and Enmanuel Valdez, as well as <em>both</em> Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu to make the roster. We could see some movement with the relievers, as Kenley Jansen is behind schedule with back issues and Chris Martin is on a race to Opening Day himself. Bobby Dalbec vs. CJ Cron is a battle, but we’re in unanimous agreement on the choice there. We discussed the starters, bench, and depth options at every position in detail. We also talk about Richard Fitts for the obligatory five minutes per week. </p>
<p id="fVH13B">There have been some hot and cold performances in spring training throughout the Red Sox roster, the stats you can <a href="https://www.mlb.com/redsox/stats/">see here</a>. Which of these starts do we care about, from a veteran and a rookie standpoint? </p>
<p id="Huc65g">Lastly, we had some great listener questions this week. Might Ceddanne Rafaela get some run at second base if Grissom misses closer to a month of game action? And, how much did the Red Sox miss the boat by not “leaning in” to the rebuild over the past four years after inexplicably tearing down the 2018 Championship roster?</p>
<p id="U1EsPd">If you have a question for an upcoming Red Seat pod, you can email us at redseatpodcast@gmail.com or tweet us. On Twitter, Jake is @DevJake, Keaton is @TheSpokenKeats and Bob is @BobOsgood15. Thanks for listening!</p>
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https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/22/24107691/the-red-seat-podcast-red-sox-roster-previewBob OsgoodKeaton DeRocherJake Devereaux2024-03-21T11:17:33-04:002024-03-21T11:17:33-04:002024 Positional Preview: Shortstop
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<p>A disastrous position in 2023, a healthy Trevor Story from Day One should provide some stability at Shortstop. </p> <p id="jc6P5R"><em>Welcome to Over the Monster’s 2024 Positional Preview Series! As a part of our lead-up to Opening Day, we’ll do a deep dive into each positional group. Today we look at a position that was a disaster for most of 2023, but one which we hope can provide some more stability this season.</em></p>
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<h2 id="KViBRd">The Starter - Trevor Story</h2>
<p id="iXGXhU">I don’t believe there is any player on the <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> this season with more to prove than Trevor Story. You could argue that the Red Sox season and the remaining career path of Story hinges on his ability to stay on the field, as well as his productivity at the plate. If all goes well this year and next, the Red Sox have a speedy power hitter in the top four of their lineup who proved last year that he can play the shortstop position at (at least) an above-average clip. From Story’s perspective, he might consider opting out of his contract after the 2025 season and having a go at free agency one final time. Considering the future within the organization, which will be discussed momentarily, that might be the best-case scenario for all parties. If things continue on the choppy path that I wrote <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2023/9/8/23864483/trevor-storys-bumpy-ride-in-boston-red-sox-analysis">about back in September</a>, Story will almost certainly opt-in to the remaining two years of his contract in 2026 and 2027. If that happens, then we’re sitting here today looking at four years, and $100-million remaining for a 31-year-old who has provided just 2.6 fWAR to the team over his first two seasons combined. </p>
<p id="22ZWi3">The good news is that this will be the first season that Story enters under normal circumstances. No end of free agency signings (Good luck, Jordan Montgomery!), no major surgeries in the offseason, no food poisoning that I’m aware of. Story has a .324 BA and a 1.000 OPS through 37 at-bats in spring training, with two home runs and eight RBI. He focused on his training throughout the offseason and improving defensively on balls to his right to assist with Rafael Devers’ defensive deficiencies. This can only help a player who had a remarkable +8 Outs Above Average in just 36 games at shortstop a year ago. </p>
<p id="U49AC0">Story <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/trevor-story-596115?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb">ended up seeing</a> 35.2% breaking balls a year ago and hit a shocking .070 against the pitch. While much of this could be attributed to rust, it’s something you’d have to think that teams will explore early in the season. In his two seasons as a Red Sox, Story has struck out 31.4% of the time, as opposed to 27.6% in his career pre-2022.</p>
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<cite>Fangraphs</cite>
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<p id="yV6SdR">Looking at his contact percentages, he declined over the last two years on pitches inside the zone (Z-Contact%) from 86% to 82% to 80%, and last year outside the zone (O-Contact%) from 61% to 56%. These are trends that Story will surely need to reverse in a fully healthy year to be a factor in the league into his thirties. </p>
<h2 id="I3QeAH">The Bench </h2>
<h3 id="yKKqgZ">Pablo Reyes</h3>
<p id="QjXDqn">Pablo Reyes made 31 appearances at shortstop out of his 64 games played with the Red Sox in 2023. He slashed .287/.339/.377 in that time and was one of the rare feel-good stories of the ’23 season, specifically his walk-off grand slam in August while the team still had a glimmer of hope for a playoff spot. </p>
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<p id="XPXrQP">However, that slash line was mostly just “empty average” for Reyes outside of that hit. His wRC+ was 93, with just nine extra-base hits in those 64 games (46 starts), but he put the ball in play by striking out at just an 11.4% clip and he showed versatility by playing all four positions defensively. He’s gotten some time in the outfield during spring training and with early injuries to Vaughn Grissom and Rob Refsnyder, he could be a bigger part of the team than we expected for the month of April, at least. </p>
<h3 id="jQdCdP">Ceddanne Rafaela</h3>
<p id="o2gKE6">If Story is out for an extended period of time at some point this season and the outfield is healthy, I would rather see the team move Rafaela to shortstop. The position is far too important and, as we saw a year ago, a revolving door of waiver-wire fodder is not the answer (ex: Enrique Hernandez, Yu Chang, Adalberto Mondesi, David Hamilton). As the <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a> did with Mookie Betts, put the best athlete at shortstop; Rafaela has the experience in the minors to do so, playing 20+ games at short in the minors in each of the last two seasons. </p>
<h3 id="seov3d">Romy Gonzalez</h3>
<p id="FszYyX">Fangraphs’ Roster Resource has Romy Gonzalez listed on the Opening Day roster. I’m not on board but who am I to disagree? Gonzalez has played just six games at shortstop in the Majors but spent plenty of time there in the high-minors in 2021 (60 starts) and 2022 (25 starts). In 239 career plate appearances, Gonzalez is slashing .222/.239/.361 with a 60 wRC+ and a 2.1%/36.0% BB:K ratio and please, God, don’t let it come to this. </p>
<h2 id="UEX9JS">Minor League Depth</h2>
<h3 id="4sB8ql">Marcelo Mayer</h3>
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<cite>Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images</cite>
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<p id="zoiLMc">Marcelo Mayer is likely the shortstop of the future for the Red Sox. Whether that is later this year, next year, two years from now when Story opts out, or whether Mayer is moved to another position, like third base with Story still playing shortstop at a high level, I cannot answer that for you. I <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/9/24094581/red-sox-season-preview-what-the-big-three-prospects-stall-marcelo-mayer-roman-anthony-kyle-teel">wrote about Mayer</a> last week as one of the three prospects that the Sox management may have put a bit of unnecessary pressure on. I’ll save you a click:</p>
<blockquote><p id="8RRtsT">Marcelo Mayer has fallen out of the top spot on some Red Sox prospect lists, but <a href="https://ourvolaris-my.sharepoint.com/personal/bob_osgood_medaptus_com/Documents/Documents/Over%20the%20Monster/.baseballamerica.com/teams/2004-boston-red-sox/prospects/"><strong>Baseball America</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.mlb.com/prospects/redsox/"><strong>MLB Pipeline</strong></a>, and The Athletic’s <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com/?xcust=___sb__p_23858622__t_w__r_overthemonster.com/autho&id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https://theathletic.com/5245693/2024/02/05/top-100-mlb-prospects-2024-keith-law/&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/9/24094581/red-sox-season-preview-what-the-big-three-prospects-stall-marcelo-mayer-roman-anthony-kyle-teel" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank"><strong>Keith Law</strong></a> still have him there. Mayer’s smooth defense at shortstop and above-average hit tool with some power should lead to a safe floor and make him a big-league regular for many years. However, the injuries are starting to pile up. A wrist injury in 2022 caused Mayer to miss close to a month. A shoulder injury that was traced all the way back to May in 2023 is the most likely reason for his .189/.254/.355 with a 25.8 K% over 43 games after being called up to Double-A. Many people smarter than me have said that the biggest predictor of future injuries is past injuries. Additionally, as Eric Longenhagen <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/boston-red-sox-top-46-prospects-2023/"><strong>pointed out last June</strong></a>, although his “best swings are perfect”, Mayer has had some swing-and-miss concerns against off-speed stuff in the strike zone. A full season in 2024 is essential for Marcelo Mayer to become the reliable everyday regular that we all expected him to be when he was taken fourth overall in 2021.</p></blockquote>
<h3 id="zdbdlE">David Hamilton</h3>
<p id="yixWhL">David Hamilton is fast AF as the kids like to say, but he’s now 26-years-old and just 22<sup>nd</sup> on the <a href="https://soxprospects.com/">Sox Prospects list</a> entering the season. He looked out of his element defensively a year ago, and on the offensive side went just 4-for-39 with 6 walks and 11 K’s. Please, God, don’t let it come to this. </p>
<h2 id="9Y5udE">Fangraphs Projections</h2>
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<figcaption>Fangraphs</figcaption>
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<p id="T9t5n1">Fangraphs Depth Charts projections like Story to get to a 20/20 season and cut his K-rate back down to his career average 28% range, with a 2.7 WAR. Most projection systems feel similarly that Story should settle around .240 with solid power and speed when on the field, and while his wRC+ projects him to be below average, his defense should allow him to be between a 2 and 3 WAR player. </p>
<h2 id="k8zdse">Divisional Ranking</h2>
<h3 id="BaUEqe">AL East Shortstop Rankings</h3>
<p id="Iqjrb2">1. Gunnar Henderson, <a href="https://www.camdenchat.com/">Baltimore Orioles</a></p>
<p id="XqkvWZ">2. Bo Bichette, <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/">Toronto Blue Jays</a></p>
<p id="FaicPr">3. Trevor Story, Boston Red Sox</p>
<p id="WFcb8y">4. Anthony Volpe, <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">New York Yankees</a></p>
<p id="u7KSKa">5. Jose Caballero/Amed Rosario, <a href="https://www.draysbay.com/">Tampa Bay Rays</a></p>
<p id="xORjWY">There are fairly obvious “tiers” after #2 and #4 and you can quibble with the rest. It remains to be seen if Jackson Holliday makes the Orioles Opening Day roster and who plays where but, for now, Henderson is coming off a rookie of the year season in which he played 83 of his games at shortstop and had a 4.6 fWAR output with 28 bombs and 100 runs scored. He is projected to hit third in a great Orioles lineup. </p>
<p id="vJv0cT">Bichette is coming off a “down year” for Bo Bichette standards but still put up 3.8 WAR and hit .306. He had his lowest power output since his rookie season, both with the 20 home runs and 73 RBI, and has basically stopped stealing bases (25 in 2021, 13 in 2022, 5 in 2023). </p>
<p id="m32JZ6">Volpe could pass Story for third in short order, but he hit just .209 last year as a 21-year-old, albeit in a 20/20 season putting up 1.9 WAR. </p>
<p id="hjk1DT">The Rays had a bit of a situation on their hands and lost their starting shortstop, unexpectedly, late last year. The 27-year-old Caballero came over in a trade this offseason and did put up a .343 OBP with 26 stolen bases for Seattle in his rookie season a year ago, but offers very little in terms of pop. Rosario was a sneaky signing for just $2M and can fill in at several different positions, which the Rays value. </p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/21/24107667/2024-red-sox-positional-preview-shortstop-trevor-story-marcelo-mayerBob Osgood2024-03-14T20:21:09-04:002024-03-14T20:21:09-04:00The Red Seat Previews the National League
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<figcaption>Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Jake, Keaton, and Bob take on Part Two of their comprehensive MLB preview, going team-by-team across the National League. </p> <p id="QpCYJ5">Welcome back to The Red Seat Podcast, episode number 309. This week, Jake Devereaux, Keaton DeRocher, and Bob Osgood tackle part two of their team-by-team MLB preview, looking at the National League. You can listen to <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/1/24087521/the-red-seat-previews-the-american-league-red-sox-podcast">Part One here</a> when they went around the American League. </p>
<p id="BGxkua">After a brief update on the Lucas Giolito injury, we started our preview in the National League East by looking at the Braves and the <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Phillies</a>, the strength of the division with the Phillies prevailing in the playoffs two years in a row. Can the Marlins repeat last year’s success riding the arm of Eury Perez? The <a href="https://www.amazinavenue.com/">Mets</a> have an outrageous payroll but won 75 games last year and don’t have much of a pitching staff. When will the Nationals embrace the youth movement and call up their stud prospects?</p>
<p id="V8U9uV">In the Central, this division looks up for grabs as we try to find a pitching staff worthy of our praise. The <a href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/">Brewers</a> won this division by nine games a year ago but lost their manager Craig Counsell (to a division rival), traded Corbin Burnes, and will be without closer Devin Williams for half of the season. The <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a> narrowly missed the playoffs but their rotation is dicey. The Reds are a top-3 MLB TV entertainment squad but can their young pitching step up? The Cardinals added Sonny Gray and not much else to a 71-win team, and the Pirates are probably a year away from their elite prospects hitting their stride. </p>
<p id="5qJ9M7">Out West, the <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a> are the odds-on favorite to win the title, as well as have the most wins in baseball. Are they finally built for October? The <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a> won the pennant a year ago but will need to improve on an 84-win output to get back into the dance. Fortunately, they have a team of emerging young bats and arms. The Padres made more significant moves (both incoming and outgoing) than any team in baseball, and with a new manager in Mike Shildt and their latest addition of Dylan Cease, might have the right combination in the clubhouse this season. The Giants’ roster might not jump off the page but they made some sneaky additions in Jung Hoo Lee and Jorge Soler and hope to have the best rookie pitcher in baseball in Kyle Harrison. And the Rockies... well, they should suck again. </p>
<p id="VMTCw9">If you have a question for an upcoming Red Seat pod, you can email us at redseatpodcast@gmail.com or tweet us. On Twitter, Jake is @DevJake, Keaton is @TheSpokenKeats and Bob is @BobOsgood15. Thanks for listening!</p>
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https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/14/24100325/the-red-seat-previews-the-national-league-red-sox-podcastBob OsgoodKeaton DeRocherJake Devereaux2024-03-09T08:38:56-05:002024-03-09T08:38:56-05:00What if One of the Big Three Prospects Stalls?
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<figcaption>Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The Red Sox are putting a lot of pressure on the notoriously unpredictable development of prospects</p> <p id="fTvumM">For the <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Boston Red Sox</a>, this offseason devolved from “<a href="https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/11/tom-werner-vows-red-sox-will-go-full-throttle-in-effort-to-improve-team.html">full throttle</a>” to “<a href="https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2023/12/04/craig-breslow-boston-red-sox-offseason-trade-rumors-free-agents-winter-meetings/">pursue trade markets and free agency to have more consistent starting pitching</a>” to “<a href="https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2024/01/16/boston-red-sox-tom-werner-mlb-baseball-craig-breslow-offseason-free-agents/">pressing (sic) all levers</a>,” and finally to a payroll that will “probably be lower.” This eventually led to Craig Breslow <a href="https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2024/01/16/boston-red-sox-craig-breslow-red-sox-mlb-baseball/">uttering the following</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p id="MR2Kxz">“And it’s going to require aggressive player development in the minor leagues and the major leagues so guys that we think are the next wave — [Marcelo] Mayer and [Roman] Anthony and [Kyle] Teel, that group — are not just big leaguers but impact big leaguers. The convergence of all those pieces is the fastest path to a <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/world-series">World Series</a> team … We want to build this thing in a way that there’s not just quality once in a while but there’s quality paired with consistency.”</p></blockquote>
<p id="ZNTEvE">The last time there was a Big Three in Boston, we were talking about three NBA Hall of Fame <a href="https://www.celticsblog.com">Celtics</a>, who were entering their tenth season in the league or more. They may not have had titles (yet) but they had an MVP (Kevin Garnett), a seven-time All-Star (Ray Allen), or were nicknamed The Truth by Shaq, while having been the face of the franchise for a decade (Paul Pierce). Pressure wasn’t exactly a concern for any of them. </p>
<p id="mGVHn7">Roman Anthony is 19 years old. Marcelo Mayer is 21. The eldest, 22 year-old Kyle Teel, was drafted eight months ago. All three of these prospects are certainly trending up and on the right track, but prospect growth is not linear and the variance of prospect ranks from year to year are extreme.</p>
<p id="2FSfMm">I would encourage anyone to go back and look at prospect lists from past seasons. While the pitching prospect rankings are the least predictive, due to injury, there are a ton of misses on the hitting side too. For example, here’s MLB Pipeline’s list <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-top-100-mlb-prospects-list">from 2020</a>. And keep in mind that their team does a thorough and terrific job. </p>
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<cite>mlb.com</cite>
</figure>
<p id="zvRdsq">Fewer than half of those players are MLB regulars entering 2024. Be careful putting all your eggs in one basket. </p>
<p id="dSD7cd">May I point you in the direction of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_K_(baseball)">Generation K</a> in the mid-90s? Unlike the successful WWE stable “Degeneration X”, featuring Shawn Michaels, Triple H, and Chyna, who would rise to prominence in 1997, I’ve got more than “two words for ya” about the failure of “Generation K” in New York. It consisted of Bill Pulsipher, Jason Isringhausen, and Paul Wilson, a trio of pitchers headed for stardom in the <a href="https://www.amazinavenue.com/">Mets</a> farm system. They were the next best thing, before we knew about TINSTAAPP, the term Baseball Prospectus coined meaning “There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.” Pulsipher debuted in 1995, almost immediately needed Tommy John surgery and won 13 games in his career. Wilson debuted in 1996, won 5 games with the Mets and never pitched for the team in the majors again. He battled injuries for years, returned in 2000 and won a total of 40 games in the league. Isringhausen was the only one of the three who had a successful career, but not with the Mets. He debuted in 1995, started 52 games, had three major arm operations and was traded from the Mets with a career ERA of 4.59 at the time in 1999. Transitioning to relief, Isringhausen went on to save 300 games in his career, mostly with the A’s and Cardinals. </p>
<p id="dWk0t7">Fortunately, TINSTAAPP doesn’t apply in Boston as there hasn’t even been such a thing as a (successful) pitching prospect outside of Brayan Bello in the past 15+ years, however, the variance of all prospects still applies. A year ago, we were talking about outfielder Miguel Bleis and his exit velocities that were as high as anyone in the FCL. A missed season with a shoulder injury at 19 years old should not close the book on Bleis in this group. Former first-round pick Nick Yorke followed up his excellent Arizona Fall League in 2022 with an above average 2023 at Double-A, an age-appropriate level for a 21-year-old. It’s not inconceivable that Bleis or Yorke is ahead of one of The Big Three on midseason 2024 prospect rankings. If I’m Nick Yorke, I’m wondering what I need to do to be in the team’s future plans in the infield or if my future is with another franchise. </p>
<p id="QMpwHn">Looking ahead to 2025, like Red Sox executives seem to already be doing, the future very well could be bright. If each of the top three prospects continue to progress as Sam Kennedy thinks they will, a roster of 13 hitters could potentially feature:</p>
<p id="5FlNqP">Catcher: Kyle Teel, Connor Wong</p>
<p id="pdhqZM">Infield: Triston Casas, Vaughn Grissom, Marcelo Mayer, Trevor Story, Rafael Devers, TBD Free Agent</p>
<p id="2QJn8N">Outfield: Jarren Duran, Masataka Yoshida, Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu</p>
<p id="KxcqLL">Setting aside the fact that eight of those twelve hitters listed are left-handed, that group can compete. But, what if one of the Big Three stalls?</p>
<p id="lbKsJ7">Marcelo Mayer has fallen out of the top spot on some Red Sox prospect lists, but <a href="https://ourvolaris-my.sharepoint.com/personal/bob_osgood_medaptus_com/Documents/Documents/Over%20the%20Monster/.baseballamerica.com/teams/2004-boston-red-sox/prospects/">Baseball America</a>, <a href="https://www.mlb.com/prospects/redsox/">MLB Pipeline</a>, and The Athletic’s <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheathletic.com%2F5245693%2F2024%2F02%2F05%2Ftop-100-mlb-prospects-2024-keith-law%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.overthemonster.com%2F2024%2F3%2F9%2F24094581%2Fred-sox-season-preview-what-the-big-three-prospects-stall-marcelo-mayer-roman-anthony-kyle-teel" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Keith Law</a> still have him there. Mayer’s smooth defense at shortstop and above-average hit tool with some power should lead to a safe floor and make him a big-league regular for many years. However, the injuries are starting to pile up. A wrist injury in 2022 caused Mayer to miss close to a month. A shoulder injury that was traced all the way back to May in 2023 is the most likely reason for his .189/.254/.355 with a 25.8 K% over 43 games after being called up to Double-A. Many people smarter than me have said that the biggest predictor of future injuries is past injuries. Additionally, as Eric Longenhagen <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/boston-red-sox-top-46-prospects-2023/">pointed out last June</a>, although his “best swings are perfect”, Mayer has had some swing-and-miss concerns against off-speed stuff in the strike zone. A full season in 2024 is essential for Marcelo Mayer to become the reliable everyday regular that we all expected him to be when he was taken fourth overall in 2021. </p>
<p id="Tn77pZ">Roman Anthony has taken over the top spot over at the rankings from <a href="https://soxprospects.com/">soxprospects.com</a>, Eric Longenhagen at <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-top-100-prospects/">Fangraphs</a>, and <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/39420988/top-100-mlb-prospects-list-2024-kiley-mcdaniel-jackson-holliday-jackson-chourio">Kylie McDaniel</a> at ESPN. He rarely chases out of the zone, showing tremendous patience at the plate, a ton of raw power, and a solid glove. He started last year in Salem, unchallenged by the subpar pitching command across the board at Low-A. His .981 OPS and 164 wRC+ with 12 bombs in 54 games at High-A earned him a cup of coffee at Portland prior to the end of the season. Anthony’s defense can play in center field but likely won’t need to, thanks to the presence of Ceddanne Rafaela, but he could potentially be above average with his reads off the bat, as well as his arm. He soared up every prospect list in the second half of the season, breaking into the top 20 in baseball in some spots. As mentioned though, Anthony will be a teenager until May. His two weeks in Portland went great (185 wRC+) but that’s not enough to draw any conclusions. He struck out 30.6% of the time in High-A, and there have been times when he has struggled against left-handers and when facing curveballs, as Chris Clegg outlined to us on <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2023/9/12/23869522/talking-red-sox-prospects-with-chris-clegg-red-seat-podcast">The Red Seat Podcast</a> last September. It should be expected that these challenges will continue as he faces tougher pitching in the upper levels of the minors. Anthony’s ETA is mid-2025 on most lists, and a 21-year-old MLB debut at that time would still plenty aggressive. It is far from a foregone conclusion that Anthony is a starter on Opening Day in 2025. </p>
<p id="2Ube1x">Kyle Teel, the Red Sox 14<sup>th</sup> overall pick out of Virginia, may be on the fastest track of the three as the lone “college bat.” He has great bat-to-ball skills, runs well, can mix in some power, and, as<a href="https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/2004-boston-red-sox/prospects/?season=2024&ranking=preseason"> Baseball America stated</a>, Teel “shows excellent defensive traits—strong hands, twitch and fluidity—as well as an above-average arm and pop times in the range of 1.9 seconds on throws to second base.” A 1.9 pop time would put Teel into the top-10 in MLB already. However, Teel has played just 26 games in the minor leagues thus far. Keith Law feels that he needs more seasoning defensively, stating that Teel “needs to simplify his movements back there to catch better quality stuff than he had to handle.” Similar to Anthony, Teel has only spent two weeks above High-A, and there’s no way to know whether he will continue to keep pace with his aggressive assignments or if he’ll be starting 2025 at Triple-A. </p>
<p id="lvy5Be">I do believe that the future is bright in Boston and for all three of these top prospects. In regards to Red Sox management, “if you wanna crown ‘em, then crown their ass”…</p>
<div id="TSsBgq"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 75%;"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/nAN9ORwsiVA?rel=0" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; border: 0;" allowfullscreen="" scrolling="no" allow="accelerometer; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share;"></iframe></div></div>
<p id="Nsfz4y">…but it feels a bit reckless to put this kind of pressure on three kids who are not yet a finished product to wait for “the next wave” to begin the contention window of 2025. <a href="https://www.bostonherald.com/2023/10/02/red-sox-season-ticket-prices-increase-2024-fenway-park-sam-kennedy/">Maybe lower ticket prices a bit</a> while we wait?</p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/9/24094581/red-sox-season-preview-what-the-big-three-prospects-stall-marcelo-mayer-roman-anthony-kyle-teelBob Osgood2024-03-07T11:29:58-05:002024-03-07T11:29:58-05:00The Red Seat Podcast: Let Dick Fitts Eat
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<img alt="Minnesota Twins v Boston Red Sox" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/SoZN-Va2sSOTHTfqqklwqgbAlak=/0x0:4342x2895/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73189162/2031351439.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Jake, Keaton, and Bob talk about the Lucas Giolito disaster, the imminent Brayan Bello extension, and the state of the Red Sox roster at the start of March. </p> <p id="YowHXe">Welcome back to The Red Seat Podcast, episode number 308. This week, Jake Devereaux, Keaton DeRocher, and Bob Osgood discuss injury news to the two biggest <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> offseason acquisitions, most notably Lucas Giolito and his elbow, as well as Brayan Bello’s imminent extension. </p>
<p id="J46WFt">We opened the show talking about Jeff Passan’s report that Lucas Giolito has a partially torn UCL, leaving (at least) this season in doubt. Between the lack of front-line pitching being prioritized this offseason, the question marks within most of the anticipated starting rotation, as well as the lack of depth in starting pitching depth in the minor leagues, all three of us have various concerns. We go over some alarming tweets that chronicled just how much money the Red Sox have spent in recent years on pitchers who have been on the Injured List, or pitching for another team. </p>
<div id="j5IDo5">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Red Sox<br><br>With the news that Lucas Giolito's season might be done..<br><br>The Red Sox, since 2020, will have spent $184,500,000 on Giolito, Chris Sale and David Price<br><br>And got 151.0 IP<br><br>or<br><br>$1,221,854.30 per inning pitched<br><br>ouch <a href="https://t.co/8WUJLaUCrn">pic.twitter.com/8WUJLaUCrn</a></p>— Boston Sports Info (@bostonsportsinf) <a href="https://twitter.com/bostonsportsinf/status/1765046879929106604?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 5, 2024</a>
</blockquote>
<script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<p id="bUt3al">Brayan Bello is reportedly very close to signing a contract extension that could be announced this weekend, providing team control beyond the 2028 season. It’s hard to argue that this isn’t good business after recent young stars have left the team, but we await the details. </p>
<p id="z4PjKh">C.J. Cron signed a minor-league deal that could end up with a $2M base salary if he makes the team. We discuss whether we think he’ll make the team in Bobby Dalbec’s place. Vaughn Grissom has a groin injury and may be out for opening day; how much Enmanuel Valdez and Pablo Reyes will we see?</p>
<p id="FcOhon">We finished the show taking listener questions about best-case and worst-case scenarios with the pitching staff, contention windows, and book recommendations. </p>
<p id="HwjPhs">If you have a question for an upcoming Red Seat pod, you can email us at redseatpodcast@gmail.com or tweet us. On Twitter, Jake is @DevJake, Keaton is @TheSpokenKeats and Bob is @BobOsgood15. Thanks for listening!</p>
<div id="UIvoRh"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 200px; position: relative;"><iframe src="https://player.megaphone.fm/RRTET2194227613" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; border: 0;" allowfullscreen=""></iframe></div></div>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/7/24092994/the-red-seat-red-sox-podcast-let-dick-fitts-eat-giolito-injury-brayan-bello-extensionBob OsgoodKeaton DeRocherJake Devereaux2024-03-01T10:25:56-05:002024-03-01T10:25:56-05:00The Red Seat Previews the American League
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<img alt="World Series - Texas Rangers v Arizona Diamondbacks - Game Five" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Lk_k-_EVU0Z5EPD06BndgdmxP0o=/0x8:1777x1193/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73175665/1782098891.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Jake, Keaton, and Bob take a break from the negativity of the Red Sox offseason to do a comprehensive American League preview. </p> <p id="275xYY">Welcome back to The Red Seat Podcast, episode number 307. This week, Jake Devereaux, Keaton DeRocher, and Bob Osgood take a break from the negativity of the offseason to do a comprehensive American League preview. </p>
<p id="kgEMuj">We started in the American League East (sans <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a>), discussing if the <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a> have the best 1-2 hitter combination in baseball, whether the Blue Jays are the <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/2/28/24083305/mlb-season-preview-know-thy-enemy-toronto-blue-jays-boston-red-sox">most disappointing playoff team</a> in baseball the last few years, if the Orioles have somehow improved from their 101-win season, and how the Rays might piece together another great season despite losing two of their best players in the past year.</p>
<p id="FkSM5h">Continuing on to the American League Central, the Twins have a solid team on paper but are relying on the injury-prone Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Royce Lewis as the heart of their lineup. Can the Tigers continue their strong finish in 2024? The Guardians have lost Tito and not spent any money, per usual, but their staff is strong. The <a href="https://www.southsidesox.com/">White Sox</a> are a dumpster fire in every way possible. Our biggest discrepancy happened with the Royals who Jake and Keaton believe can be a .500 team this year, but Bob cant shake their 106 losses from a year ago. </p>
<p id="ZgqUqp">Finally, the AL West has an excellent top-2 with the perennial-contending <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com">Astros</a> and the defending champion Rangers. The Mariners have the pitching staff to compete with those teams but probably not the bats. The Angels are a sad state of affairs after losing Shohei Ohtani and the Athletics are even worse. We covered all 14 of these teams in great detail over an exciting 80-minute show!</p>
<p id="i3No5A">If you have a question for an upcoming Red Seat pod, you can email us at redseatpodcast@gmail.com or tweet us. On Twitter, Jake is @DevJake, Keaton is @TheSpokenKeats and Bob is @BobOsgood15. Thanks for listening!</p>
<div id="J4bBmS"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 200px; position: relative;"><iframe src="https://player.megaphone.fm/RRTET4566008485" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; border: 0;" allowfullscreen=""></iframe></div></div>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/1/24087521/the-red-seat-previews-the-american-league-red-sox-podcastBob OsgoodKeaton DeRocherJake Devereaux2024-02-28T07:35:22-05:002024-02-28T07:35:22-05:00Know Thy Enemy: Toronto Blue Jays
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<img alt="Toronto Blue Jays v Detroit Tigers" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/6fj5mXEQaO7I4RAonXCTqmU3ouY=/120x0:3900x2520/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73169963/1531957005.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Mark Cunningham/MLB Photos via Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>Over The Monster’s series previewing the 2024 Red Sox’s rivals rolls on with the Jays</em></p> <h2 id="80jD4h">What’s This Team’s Deal?</h2>
<p id="qrTHXO">The <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/">Toronto Blue Jays</a> are a team that’s been loaded with talent for four years now and, depending on the season, ranged from a scrappy opponent to downright terrifying in the regular season. However, the story has not been the same in the playoffs. The Blue Jays have made the playoffs in three of the past four seasons and in all three of those instances, they’ve been swept in the AL Wild Card Series.</p>
<p id="woL3zs">In 2020, it was as a part of the short season 8-team AL bracket, with the Jays as the unprecedented “8-seed.” In 2021, they won 91 games and it wasn’t enough, finishing fourth in a loaded AL East and falling short of the one-game playoff against the <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a> and <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> (often referred to as “The last time Fenway was fun”). In 2022, they were swept at home by the <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/">Seattle Mariners</a>, blowing an 8-1 lead in the deciding game. A year ago, it was the <a href="https://www.twinkietown.com/">Minnesota Twins</a> that won the first two against Toronto, where they mustered just one run in 18 innings offensively. </p>
<p id="OTsMcl">This is a squad that continues to have skill in all phases of the game but has yet to put it all together when it really matters. </p>
<h2 id="408Khd">How Good Are They?</h2>
<p id="NccaK5">As mentioned above, they’ve been good but not great, sitting with a Win% between .533 and .562 for four years now. In 2023, a year after the bullpen had failed them in the biggest moment, Toronto attempted to shore up the pen by trading power-hitting outfielder Teoscar Hernandez in the final year of his contract to those same Mariners that had beaten them, in return for left-handed reliever Erik Swanson. In addition, with (seemingly) an excess of catchers in the organization, they moved looming catching prospect Gabriel Moreno to Arizona along with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in return for former catcher/current outfielder Daulton Varsho. Although the Jays got <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&pos=c&sortcol=8&sortdir=default&pagenum=1">the eighth best OPS</a> and seventh highest wRC+ from their catchers last year, it’s easy to wonder if they wish they had that trade back, after starting catcher Alejandro Kirk hit just .250 with eight home runs and Danny Jansen spent 50 more days on the IL, something that is becoming a trend. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/TBT9oOiM7vJ0U_SX54fJ0l-R01A=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25304963/Jansen.PNG">
<cite>2024 Baseball Forecaster | Ron Shandler</cite>
</figure>
<p id="v53enl">Meanwhile, Daulton Varsho dropped from a 4.8 fWAR player in 2022 for the D-Backs to a 2.1 fWAR player in Toronto, while Gabriel Moreno was giving “budding superstar” vibes throughout the playoffs in Arizona. </p>
<p id="jXUgpk">This past fall, it was neither the bullpen nor the rotation that fell short for the Jays in the playoffs, but rather a completely punchless lineup over two consecutive days. Toronto was shut down by both Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray of the Twins. Though most of the headlines coming out of the series focused on manager John Schneider removing Jose Berrios from Game 2 after just three innings (and whether that was even his call). The lineup responded by getting shutout in that game. </p>
<p id="LVoKby">So, how good are the Blue Jays entering 2024? With George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. atop the lineup, there will be plenty of runners on base and pop at the top, as always. Kevin Gausman has turned himself into an ace in every sense of the word, striking out 237 batters a year ago. Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt round out a top-3 in the rotation that can give you a chance in a playoff series, and Jordan Romano saved 36 games for a second consecutive year.</p>
<p id="hoGZAE">But they were damn close to being <em>really</em> good in 2024. The Red Sox may have had the most apathetic offseason, but no fanbase suffered a greater single disappointment than Toronto and the nation of Canada did on December 8, when Jon Morosi reported that Shohei Ohtani was on a flight to Toronto, presumably to sign a long-ass deal with the team. As fans and media followed the alleged private jet with excitement, it turned out that the jet was in fact boarded by Robert Herjavec, producer of the show Shark Tank. As we all know, Ohtani signed with the LA <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a> shortly thereafter and the Jays haven’t exactly used the Ohtani money elsewhere, although they did offer the 61-year-old Herjavec a minor-league invite to camp. </p>
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<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/3zcuonUrq2eeOwa5dX-lzJfWcZg=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25304967/1600x640_Q90_8570360eeb5363d6b28ed8f3355893d6.jpg">
<cite>https://abc.com/shows/shark-tank/cast/robert-herjavec</cite>
</figure>
<p id="ZxFoo6">Toronto added old friend Justin Turner on a one-year deal at the age of 39 to be their DH, but he could also play some third base with Matt Chapman still a free agent. They brought back elite center fielder Kevin Kiermaier on a one-year deal, and signed 29-year-old Swiss army knife Isiah Kiner-Filefa to a two-year deal, and he’s also likely to see some time at third base. </p>
<p id="BeMLTm">They do have first baseman Daniel Vogelbach in camp on a minor-league deal and if there is a god, then Nike and Fanatics will fix the see-through baseball pants issue before Vogelbach suits up for a game. </p>
<p id="qmL4P7">Kiermaier received $10.5M after hitting .265, while decreasing a 26.2 K% from 2020-2022 combined, down to 21.1% in 2023. He was a 2.2 WAR player, thanks in part to a +13 Outs Above Average (OAA) a year ago, tied for second across all MLB outfielders. Daulton Varsho’s +11 OAA sat tied for the top-5 as well among all outfielders. Add in George Springer in right field, and Toronto’s defensive outfield should continue to be elite. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/E62vWx9_h5NW4DBB-xDNz4fWy_U=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25304969/OF_Savant.png">
<cite>Baseball Savant</cite>
</figure>
<h2 id="yEZRDI">Most Likable Player: Justin Turner</h2>
<p id="3Mh8OD">Turner was a player who was beloved in the Red Sox clubhouse a year ago, played through foot injuries most of the second half, and still casually had an .800 OPS season with 23 home runs and 96 RBI as a 38-year-old. He <a href="https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2024/02/02/mlb-red-sox-justin-turner-free-agency/">recently said</a> in regards to Boston, “I assumed it would be a no-brainer that I would try to work something out and come back.” Great. </p>
<h2 id="EJMKbB">Most Hateable Player: Alek Manoah</h2>
<p id="VoLBiu">A guy who behaved like this at Fenway in July of 2022…</p>
<div id="iV2hz5">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Alek Manoah strikes out the side with a side of beef <a href="https://t.co/OZKTuMvIsb">pic.twitter.com/OZKTuMvIsb</a></p>— Tim and Friends (@timandfriends) <a href="https://twitter.com/timandfriends/status/1550966841241210881?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 23, 2022</a>
</blockquote>
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<p id="j0Eouc">… found himself demoted to the Complex League in June of 2023, giving up 11 runs in 2 2/3 innings in his first Complex level start. </p>
<div id="Wl80XS"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 72.8735%;"><iframe src="https://giphy.com/embed/USnfWeCOHTHB3WX0aY" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; border: 0;" allowfullscreen="" scrolling="no" allow="encrypted-media;"></iframe></div></div>
<p id="LRibkC">At the Major League level, Manoah started 19 games with a 5.87 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP. He’s currently projected as the fifth starter for Toronto, but I’ll believe it when I see it. </p>
<h2 id="E9b8hI">Schedule vs. Red Sox</h2>
<p id="Oevaxe">13 weeknight games, all beginning at 7:00. Can’t get any more standard than that. </p>
<p id="nVsgx3"><strong>Red Sox @ Blue Jays: Mon-Wed, June 17-19 (3 games)</strong></p>
<p id="0ggwnR"><strong>Blue Jays @ Red Sox: Mon-Wed, June 24-26 (3 games)</strong></p>
<p id="nH2fJO"><strong>Blue Jays @ Red Sox: Mon-Thurs, Aug 26-29 (4 games)</strong></p>
<p id="4Cly1H"><strong>Red Sox @ Blue Jays: Mon-Wed, Sep 23-25 (3 games)</strong></p>
<p id="nK3l1Q">The Red Sox were 7-6 against the Jays in 2023, a colossal improvement over the 3-16 record that they had in 2022. </p>
<p id="x8XUg1">Hopefully the crowd of 18,000 can give Justin Turner a polite, and well-deserved golf clap during his return to Fenway in the final week of June. </p>
<h2 id="QcL2PM">Season Prediction</h2>
<p id="sCktbC"><a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings">MLB Depth Charts</a> at Fangraphs projects the Blue Jays to be tied for third with Baltimore in the AL East, at 85-77. I agree <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/2/20/24076628/know-thy-enemy-the-baltimore-orioles-red-sox-mlb-season-preview">with Fitzy</a> that the O’s are too low with this projection, but this seems more fair for Toronto. They won 89 games a year ago, lost Matt Chapman and Whit Merrifield, and seem to have some question marks in the infield replacing them. I’ll put the Jays at 87-75, led by a bounce-back 35-homer season from Vladdy Jr. </p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/2/28/24083305/mlb-season-preview-know-thy-enemy-toronto-blue-jays-boston-red-soxBob Osgood2024-02-08T15:30:54-05:002024-02-08T15:30:54-05:00The Red Seat: Predicting The Future
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<img alt="Cleveland Guardians v Boston Red Sox" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/UyyKu-9D8c4TpEtY55M4soKlafI=/0x0:3960x2640/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73123459/1242132578.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Jake and Bob discuss the return of Theo, lineup projections, and dig for storylines within the starting nine. </p> <p id="2Svaws">Welcome back to The Red Seat Podcast, episode number 305. This week, Jake Devereaux and Bob Osgood discuss Winter Weekend, the return of Theo Epstein, look at a few different Fangraphs projections for the <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a>, and mine for storylines within the projected starting lineup.</p>
<p id="j4M70L">We’ve been on a minor hiatus, and haven’t spoken since the chaos of Winter Weekend. Of all the shocking quotes, Jake and Bob were most blown away by Tom Werner announcing that he lives his life “full throttle” and wonder if he’ll take over for any Vin Diesel roles in the near future. We rolled this into Theo Epstein being brought in as a senior advisor and part-owner with the Red Sox, arguably the first exciting news of the offseason. We are hopeful that Theo will help be a liaison between the fans and ownership, which currently has a disparity in team vision that seems further apart than ever. </p>
<p id="0QRtfE">Bob <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/2/2/24058345/evaluating-the-red-sox-offense-with-projections-analysis-devers-casas-yoshida-duran-rafaela">recently wrote</a> about Fangraphs’ projections, including ZIPS, The BATX, and Steamer. We went through the starting nine to discuss which players we expect to exceed or fall short of projections, as well as review the <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings">projected standings</a> at Fangraphs. </p>
<p id="A87jNV">We concluded the show by talking about a few great listener questions, including the ETA of the top Sox prospects triumvirate, Brayan Bello’s workload, and a listener who is particularly furious with Ryan Brasier. </p>
<p id="MYLabI">If you have a question for an upcoming Red Seat pod, you can email us at redseatpodcast@gmail.com or tweet us. On Twitter, Jake is @DevJake, Keaton is @TheSpokenKeats and Bob is @BobOsgood15. Thanks for listening!</p>
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https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/2/8/24066448/the-red-seat-podcast-predicting-the-future-of-the-red-sox-theo-epstein-john-henry-projectionsBob OsgoodJake Devereaux2024-02-02T14:18:11-05:002024-02-02T14:18:11-05:00Evaluating the Red Sox Offense with Projections
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<figcaption>Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>A breakdown at the 2024 Red Sox lineup through the eyes of Steamer, BATX, and ZiPS projections. </p> <p id="13QZ9M">If you have ever made your way over to a Fangraphs <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/24617/stats?position=OF">player page</a> and looked below the lifetime year-by-year stats, you’ve probably seen a shade of green containing acronyms (which seem to be growing by the year) with stats for a season that hasn’t happened yet. These are player projections and while they are not perfect, they provide a good baseline for us to ground our expectations for the upcoming season. They draw from the past performance of the player, weighted more heavily towards their most recent seasons, but also use historical data of the career trends of previous players with similar age, experience, and skill level. Projections strive for the 50<sup>th</sup>-percentile median outcome to help keep our cognitive biases in check. Leave the Hot Takes out of this exercise. </p>
<p id="MghL0F">While there are many excellent projection systems, some of which are behind paywalls, we’re going to focus on three publicly available models to evaluate <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> players that I’ve found useful in the past: Steamer, The BATX, and ZiPS. You may see additional projections for ATC and Depth Charts in your <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=all&stats=bat&type=zips">Fangraphs</a> surfing as well. This is useful but not original information. They are simply aggregating numerous other projection systems into one and deciding how to weight them; the kind of project one could do if really good at Excel. For example, Depth Charts combines Steamer and ZiPS, and then adjusts for playing time. ATC aggregates the inputs of Steamer, The BATX, ZiPS and more. <a href="https://razzball.com/steamer-hitter-projections/">Razzball</a> takes Steamer’s projections and adjusts daily for projected playing time. There’s also Ron Shandler’s <a href="https://www.baseballhq.com/baseball-forecaster">Baseball Forecaster</a>, which has had four decades of success. And for you <a href="https://dknation.draftkings.com/mlb">fantasy baseball</a> players, Vlad Sedler makes his own projections at <a href="https://www.ftnfantasy.com/mlb/tools/fantasy-baseball-stat-projections">FTN Fantasy</a> ($) that I would recommend. </p>
<p id="xkfPuP">So let’s take a look at these projection systems and break down the Red Sox hitters, in order of Roster Resource’s <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/red-sox">Projected Lineup:</a></p>
<h3 id="6DZfgi">1) Jarren Duran, CF (L)</h3>
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<cite>Fangraphs | The BATX, Steamer, ZiPS Projections</cite>
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<p id="vPuhZL">Let’s start on a positive note. Projections really like what Duran did a year ago and are betting on close to a repeat. What sticks out to me is that The BATX is highest on Duran, which is a projection system that has been notoriously low on players with limited major-league experience. The fact that Duran is a sneaky 27 year-old may be a factor in countering that. The 27 steals is the seventeenth-highest projected number in all of baseball. Duran’s .295 average a year ago was partially fueled by a .381 BABIP (MLB Avg: .297). Each model this year is bringing that number to between .325-.330 which seems feasible because of Duran’s speed. </p>
<h3 id="fbrk6b">2) Rafael Devers, 3B (L)</h3>
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<p id="BXjtTq">Steamer gives a slight edge for Devers, projecting him in the top-10 in all of MLB in HR, RBI, and Runs, as well as tied for fourteenth in WAR among hitters. The .285 BA would be in the top-15 as well. All of the models’ outputs seem like a fair median outcome for the 27-year-old Devers who had a 55.1% Hard-Hit% last year putting him in the top-2 percentile in MLB, deserving better than his .271 BA. </p>
<h3 id="CzH70D">3) Triston Casas, 1B (L)</h3>
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<p id="D3PqFr">Coming off an electric second half in which he hit .317 with 15 HR and 38 RBI in just 54 games after the break, I was more interested in seeing Casas’s projections than anyone else’s. Steamer is most bullish on Casas, projecting a 130 wRC+ and an .858 OPS (19<sup>th</sup> in MLB), to go with 29 HRs (T-27<sup>th</sup>). The BATX projection with a .242 BA and .340 OBP seems more like a 10<sup>th</sup> percentile outcome to me, but a second-year player at the age of 24 does not always pop in their model. Regardless, a 130 vs. 109 wRC+ is a wild disparity. ZiPS creator <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/projection-fight-club-2024/">Dan Szymborski surmises</a>, “For Triston Casas, my best guess is that the systems have different ideas about how a left-handed power hitter will generally fare in Fenway Park, which has a rather unorthodox shape and is generally an awful place to be a lefty slugger. Even Ted Williams felt the effects!”</p>
<h3 id="yTnINa">4) Trevor Story, SS (R)</h3>
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<p id="otFSNW">The projections are not being kind to Story entering 2024. Since there is such a heavy weight to the previous seasons and Story is coming off of <em>two</em> consecutive disappointing campaigns, the prime Trevor Story years are only factoring in a small amount at this point. He is also entering his age-31 season. Story has struck out 31.4% of the time the past two seasons so the ~28% projection might be generous. Nonetheless, both the BATX and Steamer project a 20/20 season for Story. ZiPS has similar rate stats for Story but is more pessimistic with the playing time, projecting 99 games played. </p>
<h3 id="CoHROt">5) Masataka Yoshida, DH (L)</h3>
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<p id="fD6G7X">Yoshida’s name seems to be an afterthought in the Red Sox’ core entering this season, likely due to his miserable end to the season, in which he hit just .254 with an 18.4% K-rate (an unheard-of rate for him) after the break. What we forget is that Yoshida hit .316 before the break, with a .382 OBP and 10.7 K%, and was 36% better than the league average hitter (136 wRC+). ZiPS and Steamer haven’t forgotten about that and expect an average north of .290 this season to go with a similar power output to last year and getting back to a 12-13 K%. These projections all seem entirely fair and could be exceeded if Yoshida can better handle the grind of a 162-game season on his second go-around. </p>
<h3 id="B1QOZu">6) Tyler O’Neill, LF (R)</h3>
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<p id="MePNUw">O’Neill, like Story, has had a monster season but it is now three years in the past as well as low games-played totals due to injuries the last two years. O’Neill turns 29 in June which conceivably should still be in his prime years. ZiPS having a projected .268 average and .826 OPS is most eye-opening. The BATX and Steamer seem to be closer to the mark that I would expect; something in the .250 batting average range with 20+ homers and 10+ steals. Quality defense should push that past a 2-WAR season, something he has only done once, in his whopping 5.5 fWAR season in 2021. </p>
<h3 id="xa3neL">7) Wilyer Abreu, RF (L)</h3>
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<p id="KEsY6g">For now, we have to assume that Abreu is the strong-side platoon in right field, even though another bat has to be coming, right? Right??</p>
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<p id="aO72Zr">Abreu has had a double-digit walk rate at every stop so his OBP projections seem fair. If he does in fact get over 400 plate appearances, the 15 HR / 9 SB season that ZiPS projects is conceivable. Personally, I’d like to give Abreu another year to prove himself before giving him this kind of workload. And even then, Roman Anthony is hopefully knocking on the door. </p>
<h3 id="C4UTie">8) Vaughn Grissom, 2B (R)</h3>
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<p id="MWrUiN">Grissom destroyed Triple-A last year with a .920 OPS and a 12.0%/14.1% BB:K but was blocked in Atlanta after showing subpar defensive ability at shortstop. He should get every opportunity to play at the revolving door that has been second base at Fenway. Steamer and ZiPS both believe that he can be a 2+ WAR player and 10% better than league average hitter, which I would certainly take in his first full season. Even if his output was of The BATX projection of .280 with 10 HR, 57 RBI and 10 SB, as long as he holds his own defensively, I would sign up for that from the 23-year-old Grissom. </p>
<h3 id="Jswx40">9) Connor Wong, C (R)</h3>
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<p id="V79ofX">Some strong disparities for Wong with a batting average range of .231 to .249, and home runs between 8 and 13. Both BATX and Steamer have him at an 80 wRC+ and the difference between 75 and 104 games played might be as simple as “Is Kyle Teel up in the second half this year?”</p>
<h2 id="OJ1OkE">The Bench:</h2>
<h3 id="BkGvqn">Rob Refsnyder, OF (R)</h3>
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<p id="nUOvjb">2023 OPS: .828 vs LHP, .466 vs RHP = .682 overall</p>
<p id="I1b01k">2023 wRC+: 133 vs LHP, 31 vs RHP = 93 overall</p>
<p id="B3NdxB">Let’s stick to what works. </p>
<h3 id="5ojm5i">Reese McGuire, C (L)</h3>
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<p id="XFarSs">Yeah, we’re going to see Kyle Teel this year. </p>
<h3 id="PxEe5r">Ceddanne Rafaela, OF/IF (R) and Enmanuel Valdez 2B (L)</h3>
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<p id="0AFdo2">ZiPS playing time projections for Rafaela and Valdez are a bit far-fetched but worth a look for the rate stats. </p>
<p id="6paW3k">Next week, we’ll take a look at the pitching projections and then all collectively vomit into a bucket. </p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/2/2/24058345/evaluating-the-red-sox-offense-with-projections-analysis-devers-casas-yoshida-duran-rafaelaBob Osgood