Is It Time to Promote Marcelo Mayer?

So hey, how’s Marcelo Mayer doing? It’s a pretty important question, given that Craig Breslow essentially said the entire organization will be in buffering mode until Marcelo and his prospect pals — Roman Anthony and Kyle Teel — are ready for the big leagues.

Fortunately, the 30,000-foot answer to that question is. . . pretty good! He has put any lingering concerns about last season’s shoulder injury to bed and given them a warm glass of milk by producing a nice little AA stat line in Portland:

42 G, 50 H, 17 2B, 5 HR, 12 BB, 39 K, 9 SB, 2 CS, .294/.341/.482

A steady diet of lobster rolls and Suburus seems to suit him. And given that we’re starting to see other 2021 draftees — including high schoolers like Jackson Merrill — making their MLB debuts this season, it’s natural to wonder about Marcelo’s progression. Is it time for him to swap out that Allagash in Portland for some Wormtown in Worcester?

Let’s start by taking a look at how Marcelo’s line compares to a few other recent high school shortstops. The first three players matching that description who came to my mind were Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson, and the aforementioned Jackson Merrill. And since (1) three is one of our cooler numbers, and (2) I have other things to do, let’s just go with them. And one other note: I’m simply going to throw out Marcelo’s AA numbers from last year, when he was playing with that gimpy shoulder. Am I scandalizing any real statisticians out there by both cherry-picking data and using a small sample size defined simply as “guys I can think of right now”? Probably! But I challenge you to show me a group of people who need a good scandalizing more than statisticians. This will be good for them.

Onward we march.

Ok, here’s something to discuss right off the bat: at this point in time, Marcelo Mayer is not nearly as good of a prospect as either Gunnar Henderson or Jackson Holliday were; Gunnar significantly outplayed him at the same age, while the Holliday significantly outplayed him when he was two years younger. I actually think this is important to note because, due to a number of factors outside of his control, there are quite a few Red Sox fans who view Mayer as a future superstar. He certainly could turn into that! He might even turn out to be a better big leaguer than either Henderson or Holliday (though in Henderson’s case, that’s exceedingly unlikely). But the fact is that, right now, Mayer is trending a lot closer to “good player to have your team,” than he is to “best player on a World Series contender.” On an episode of the Red Seat Podcast last year, Baseball America’s Geoff Pontes pegged Jeimar Candelario as a good MLB comp for Mayer. Candelario is a fine player who has been a borderline All-Star at times, but he is not someone you build a team around.

**And hey, since I actually just found a little more time on my hands, here’s Candelario’s AA numbers, which, unlike Henderson, Holliday, and Merrill (but like Mayer), he accumulated over parts of two stints in AA.

102 G, 92 H, 27 2B, 9 HR, 14% K, 12.6% BB

The second thing you might have noticed in looking at those stat lines above is that, while they are strikingly similar overall, Marcelo has both the worst strikeout rate and worst walk rate of all four guys (all five, if you count Jeimer). This points to something that a number of prospect watchers have been discussing since his debut: there’s a lot more swing-and-miss in Marcelo’s game than was expected of him coming out of high school. In fact, strikeouts are a concern for each of the Big Three. Kyle Teel’s K-rate is even worse than Mayer’s (23.2%), while Roman Anthony’s 28.7% K-rate is the 15th-worst mark in the entire Eastern League.

But the strikeouts aren’t necessarily the biggest concern about Marcelo’s bat right now. Take a look at his line against lefties:

44 PA, 7 H, 4 2B, 0 HR, 2 BB, 14 K, .171/.205/.268

As Dennis Eckersley would say (while bracing for a swing from David Price): yuck.

Marcelo’s overall numbers look great and he’s reached the magic 40-game mark that seems to indicate promotion for other recent elite, high-school shortstop prospects (though obviously I’m cheating there by throwing out last season’s additional 43 games). But he clearly still has some more work to do at the plate. Could he do some of that work in Worcester? Sure, but I’m not really sure what purpose that would serve right now. Mayer is playing well in AA, but he’s not exactly dominating the level. Moreover, there have been some grumblings that the automated ball and strike system employed in AAA this season is causing some development issues.

Ultimately, there’s just no real reason to fast-track him to Boston right now. He’s likely to struggle for a few months whenever he does make his debut, and the Red Sox as currently constituted are a borderline postseason contender at best. The mediocrity of the last four seasons has generated low expectations from the fans, the greater baseball world, and, apparently, the front office and ownership. In other words: they can afford to wait.

Besides, who would want to leave Portland just as the summer is beginning, anyway? It’s a fun, beautiful city with arguably the best food scene in all of New England. Let Marcelo Mayer stay in Maine with his friends, away from the spotlight and the added pressure. He’s already unfairly carrying the weight of an entire big league organization; he doesn’t need to do that while also leaving the coolest town in New England for a city that’s only known for its pronunciation.