Smash Or Pass: Shota Imanaga

Who is he and where does he come from?

He’s Shota Imanaga, and he’s not that Japanese pitcher who’s going to be posted this offseason, but the other one. Call him Saliere to Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Mozart, or (and let’s all hope this doesn’t come to pass) Kei Igawa to Yamamoto’s Dice-K.

Is he any good?

The 30-year-old Imanaga has been one of the best pitchers in Japan for years. He’s a control artist, maintaining a walk rate below 4% last season, but he strikes out plenty of hitters, too, including Paul Goldschmidt and Cedric Mullins during his two-inning stint against the United States in the championship game of this year’s World Baseball Classic. He’s not a fireballer, as his fastball lives in the low 90s. But advanced command and a polished arsenal that includes a curve, changeup, a splitter, and a wipeout slider he uses to get outs, have earned him the nickname “The Throwing Philosopher.”

The concern with Imanaga is that, even in NPB, home runs have been a problem. This was particularly true against righties and against his fastball. He gave up 17 homers in 22 games last season, which is a really big number in a league where only two hitters topped 30 homers on the season. In the big leagues, he may ultimately be only a back-of-the-rotation starter.

TL;dr, just give me his 2023 stats.

148 IP, 2.80 ERA, 132 H, 174 K, 24 BB, 17 HR, 1.05 WHIP

Why would he be a good fit for the Red Sox?

The Red Sox need pitching. We all know this. Imanaga projects to be a reliable innings-eater at the back-end of the rotation at the very least, with the potential of being a solid mid-rotation guy. Given that Craig Breslow is supposedly a pitching guru who will be focused on optimizing every arm in the system, he might be the right guy to get Imanaga to his best-case scenario. Velocity aside, the stuff is certainly there:

Why would he not be a good fit for the Red Sox?

Well, what if Imanaga’s best case scenario isn’t realized? Does this team need someone who’s basically the Japanese version of Nick Pivetta? The Red Sox have a plethora of somewhat promising but ultimately middling arms. What this team needs is pitching that can lead a rotation, and we just don’t know if Imanaga is that guy — especially if he’s going to give up homers to righties while playing half his games in Fenway Park.

There also may be some complications regarding the timing of his posting to consider. With Yamamoto destined be the focus of most teams’ offseason efforts, there are reports that Imanaga’s agents may wait until Yamamoto is signed before Imanaga officially posts. The posting period lasts 45 days, meaning it’s possible that Yamamoto’s free agency stretches into the new year. Even if the Sox like Imanaga, do they have the liberty to wait that long for him, all while other big league starters are inking deals?

What would he cost?

Most projections see him getting a 4-5 year deal worth anywhere from $17-25 million per year. This is largely based on the fact that Kodai Senga received a five-year deal worth $14 million per year from the Mets last year. And while Senga was considered to be be better than Imanaga, that contract now looks like an absolute bargain, so there will likely be something of a market correction this time around.

Show me a cool highlight.

Here he is dominating the Yomiuri Giants with breaking stuff last season. I’m reaalllly not sure how I feel about the video game-style replays the Japanese broadcast uses here, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some of that stateside soon.

Smash or pass?

This is a tough one and, like most of the players we’ve profiled in this series, it sort of depends on what other moves the team makes. Breslow needs to add two top-of-the rotation starters this offseason if the Red Sox are going to be competitive. If Imanaga is the second of those starters, then that’s a little risky, considering there’s a chance he might not be a top-of-the-rotation guy at all. I would love him in isolation as a high-floor guy who could flourish under Breslow, but given all the other work to do on the roster, he’s probably a pass. It’s just not great timing.