Kiké’s Coming Back, So What Do We Know About the 2023 Red Sox Now?

Kiké Hernandez is coming back next year, and just about everyone is happy about it. He’s a great clubhouse guy, a valuable and versatile defender, and a fan-favorite. At $10 million for one season, it’s not the type of contract that can hurt the team’s flexibility, and he deserves the money more than John Henry and Tom Werner, anyway.

So what does this deal tell us about the 2023 Red Sox and what questions remain? Let’s take a look at what we know now.

There Will Be No Jarren Duran Era

Somewhere in the Fenway Park baseball ops offices there’s a white board with a diagram of a diamond and a heading that reads 2023 Projected Depth Chart. And, until recently, it probably had a little Jarren Duran magnet in the centerfield spot.

Was there any kind of ceremony when they took that magnet down? Did someone pull up Taps on Spotify? Did they set it on fire and send it adrift down the Muddy River like a Viking funeral? We’ll never know, but one thing’s clear: Jarren Duran will not be the starting center fielder on Opening Day in 2023, and likely won’t be a part of the 26-man roster at all.

This is not to say that his Red Sox career is over or that he’s definitively a bust. After all, trading him at this point would be selling extremely low, and the best path forward may be to try to rebuild some of his value before assessing any further options. But he’s not yet proven that he’s a Major League-caliber player (even as a fourth outfield option), and the Kiké extension signals that Chaim is not counting on him turning into one any time soon.

. . . But There Might Be A Ceddanne Rafaela Era On The Horizon

As solid as Kiké is with the glove, he’s not the best centerfielder in the Red Sox organization. That’s because Ceddanne Rafaela is down in Portland doing things like this:

The 21-year-old native of Curacao is a speedy defensive guru (he also plays short) with a good hit tool and a surprising amount of power for someone who’s just 5’8”. The biggest hole in his game is plate discipline (he’s only walked 26 times this season), but his ability to make contact has resulted in a perfectly respectable .335 OBP in 60 games at the AA level this year. He’ll likely start 2023 in Worcester and, if all goes well, he’s the centerfielder of the future.

The Sox Still Have A Centerfield Question Mark For 2023

Kiké has cemented his status as a Red Sox cult hero for life - that’s what a 4.9 bWAR season and one legendary October performance will do. But another thing that a 4.9 bWAR season does is set some pretty high expectations, ones that he’s not likely to meet.

It’s almost guaranteed that he will never again be as good as he was in 2021. The question, then, is how much worse he’ll be. We can’t draw too many conclusions from this injury-riddled season, but even before he went down in early June, Kiké had regressed big time, putting up a paltry .209/.273/.340 slash line in 51 games. That’s not an everyday player on a postseason team, and if he starts slow again next year, the Sox will likely need to find another centerfield solution.

. . . And They Still Need More Outfielders, Anyway

Barring injuries, we know that Kiké will almost certainly be starting in center on Opening Day 2023. But who will be playing next to him in right? Frankly, there isn’t anyone currently under contract for next season who deserves the job. There is a certain 6’7”, 280-pound, likely 2022 AL MVP who could do it, but let’s get real: Chaim Bloom shows no indication of being the type of guy to give a massive contract to a 30-year-old, and the Yankees aren’t going to let that happen anyway.

After Aaron Judge, the top names in the free agency market will likely be Mitch Haniger and Brandon Nimmo. Haniger struggles to stay healthy, but when he is on the field, he’s exactly the type of right-handed power bat that’s been missing from the Sox lineup this year; he could be a great replacement for JD. Nimmo can’t really stay on the field either, and he doesn’t have Haniger’s power. But he’s an on-base machine with a glove that plays in center field, so he should be able to learn how to play Fenway’s deep right field in time (if he’s not too busy hunting for missing ballot boxes from the 2020 election, that is. . . )

If Bloom wants to go the reclamation project route — and let’s face it: Chaim Bloom loves a reclamation project more than the entire internet loves talking about how long ago the 90s was (a long time ago! we get it already!) — then there are plenty of options. Odubel Herrera hasn’t really shown any sign of getting back to the fringe All-Star level that he once occupied, but he will come extremely cheap. Robbie Grossman has been brutal this year, but carried a 108 OPS+ from 2016-2021. Joey Gallo may end up being the most intriguing option. But he somehow never turned into the short porch beast everyone thought he would be in Yankee Stadium, and his career numbers in Fenway are even worse: .162/.296/.351 with just 1 homer in 12 games.

The Kiké deal answers some questions about next year, but not all of them. We still have to wait and see where the team goes from here.