So, The Red Sox Need A Shortstop

There is still plenty to say about Xander Bogaerts’ departure, and we are saying it. But, it’s also time to turn to the future. The Boston Red Sox do not currently have a shortstop and, being one of the nine positions on the field, that’s a problem.

Here’s a look at some options, both in-house, and on the free-agent market.

Carlos Correa

How Much Worse Is He Than Xander Bogaerts?

He’s arguably better. As I stated on a pod last month when we were anticipating Xander’s departure, with respect to the big three free agent shortstops (Xander, Correa, and Trea Turner) you can really pick and chose whatever stat you want to show that any one of them is better than the others. Looking at Statcast metrics shows us that Correa makes better contact than Xander, but that hasn’t necessarily translated into Correa outproducing him over the last three years:

Baseball Reference

Baseball Reference

I suspect that the vast majority of baseball fans would be shocked to see that Xander has out-slugged Correa in recent years. Correa was so good at such a young age, that everyone just assumed he was going to be A-Rod 2.0. And even though that hasn’t exactly happened, he still maintains a bit of that reputation.

Defensively, it’s another situation of pick your stat. By UZR, Xander is better, with a career UZR/150 of 0.9 compared to Correa’s -2.3. By Defensive Runs Saved, Correa crushes Xander over their careers, 70 to -50 (though Xander actually edged him last season, 5 to 3).

Where there is a major difference is in their ages. Correa is a full two years younger than Xander, though that’s arguably offset by the fact that Xander has been much more durable.

How Much Cheaper Is He Than Xander Bogaerts?

He’s going to be more expensive, with that younger age and those flashier tools attracting a massive contract. At the beginning of the offseason, Ben Clemens of FanGraphs predicted it would take a 10-year, $300 million deal to lock up Correa — but he also predicted Xander would get just 7 years at $217. After the way the market has blown up in recent weeks, 10/300 is probably Correa’s floor.

Is He Going To Be The Shortstop in 2023?

I suppose it’s possible, but signing Correa to a mega deal would be a shocking shift in direction for this Red Sox front office.

Dansby Swanson

Photo by Kevin D. Liles/Atlanta Braves/Getty Images

How Much Worse Is He Than Xander Bogaerts?

If you just look at his stats from this past season, they look somewhat similar. Swanson actually hit 10 more homers than Xander this year and out-slugged him overall. But Xander crushed him in OBP and topped Swanson just about every other important offensive metric, from OPS+ (139 to 115) to wRC+ (134 to 116). More importantly, Swanson’s 2022 season was easily his career year — in his six full seasons in the bigs, he’s been a better than league average hitter just twice. And while he’s a much slicker fielder, he’s only a year younger than Xander.

How Much Cheaper Is He Than Xander Bogaerts?

He will be considerably cheaper, as FanGraphs predicted a 6-year, $144 million dollar deal.

Is He Going To Be The Shortstop in 2023?

He very well could be. This front office has shown no willingness to give out the long-term deals that elite free agents garner, but it does seem more than willing to jump in on the second tier guys, e.g. Trevor Story. Dansby Swanson is not as good as Trevor Story, but his contract will end up looking awfully similar.

Jose Iglesias

How Much Worse Is He Than Xander Bogaerts?

Much, much worse. He’s been a better than league-average hitter as a full-time player exactly once in his career, and that was 10 years ago as a Red Sox rookie. He’s no longer an elite fielder, either, having lost several steps as he enters his age-33 season.

How Much Cheaper Is He Than Xander Bogaerts?

He’s going to be cheap as hell, commanding no more than a 2-year deal at about $5 million per year, if not even less than that.

Is He Going To Be The Shortstop in 2023?

He’s a fun guy to root for, but God I hope not.

Christian Arroyo

How Much Worse Is He Than Xander Bogaerts?

I am on record as saying that Christian Arroyo will one day find his way to All-Star Game. But even if that admittedly fanciful prediction comes true, it’s probably going to be a one-time thing resulting from a confluence of right-place/right-time factors. If he ever stays healthy and gets a chance to play every day, he’s capable of putting up solid numbers — think .280/.335/.440 with 19 homers.

But putting my fanboyism aside, he’s not in Xander’s class and never will be, even for a season or two. He also isn’t really a shortstop, having played just 24 games there over the course of his career. If Christian Arroyo plays a role in replacing Xander, it’s more likely he does so as a second baseman, pushing over someone else to be discussed below.

How Much Cheaper Is He Than Xander Bogaerts?

He’s already on the team — that’s pretty cheap!

Is He Going To Be The Shortstop in 2023?

No.

Jean Segura

Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images

How Much Worse Is He Than Xander Bogaerts?

Throughout his 11-year big league career, Jean Segura has been a classic “good little player.” You know the type: good glove, decent hit tool, little power; the type of player who rounds out a championship roster, but doesn’t anchor one. Over the last three seasons, he’s slashed .281/.344/.417 and averaged 10 home runs. That’s a solid line, and one that’s 8% better than league average. But he’s also going to be 33-years-old next year, and hasn’t played shortstop since 2019. Moreover, he fractured a finger last year and showed a considerable drop in power and exit velocity when he returned. He’s worse than Xander Bogaerts.

How Much Cheaper Is He Than Xander Bogaerts?

Way cheaper. He’ll probably get a 2-year-deal for less than $30 million.

Is He Going To Be The Shortstop in 2023?

He’s not necessarily a better option than Christian Arroyo, so probably not.

Trevor Story

Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images

How Much Worse Is He Than Xander Bogaerts?

He has a better glove, more home run power, and he’s faster — but in every other respect, Trevor Story is a lesser player than Bogaerts. He strikes out a ton, makes much less contact, and his OBP has fallen each of the last four years, settling in at an awful .303 last season. He’s also battled injuries two seasons in row. And despite his outstanding glove work, there are now serious concerns about his ability to return to the shortstop side of the bag, due to a lingering shoulder injury first suffered in 2021. The average velocity on his throws has dropped every year since 2000, and last year he had the single weakest arm of any regular second baseman in baseball.

How Much Cheaper Is He Than Xander Bogaerts?

He’s on the team already, so, again, that’s cheap. Moving him to shortstop would obviously require them to find someone else to play second base, but the Red Sox already have two other capable second basemen on the big league roster in Christian Arroyo and Kiké Hernandez (though obviously Hernandez is slotted in as the everyday centerfielder).

Is He Going To Be The Shortstop in 2023?

As Jake Devereaux pointed out in last week’s pod, when Trevor Story was originally acquired last offseason, we all initially freaked out that the Red Sox had just signed Xander’s shortstop replacement. But for the next six months, we all kind of kept quiet about that, collectively pretended it wasn’t going to happen, and buried our angst. Most psychologists would probably suggest that isn’t a very healthy way of dealing with worry. But guess what? It’s happening.