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Baseball Prospectus releases top 10 Red Sox prospect list

Another Red Sox prospect list.

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Kelly O’Connor

We are firmly in prospect season, folks. Not only are we running our annual community top 20 prospect voting process, but just last week we had a pair of top 100 prospect lists, one each from Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. That goes along with a couple of top 10 organizational lists that we got earlier in the winter. Well, now we have another top 10 list for the organization, this one coming from Baseball Prospectus, which was released on Monday.

These lists are behind a paywall, so as always I first of all definitely encourage a subscription to BP, not only for their prospect work but also for some of the best statistical research you will find anywhere as well as their fantasy work if you’re into that sort of thing. (In the interest of full disclosure, I was formerly employed as part of their fantasy team.) For this list specifically, I will refrain from commenting on their scouting reports and other commentary provided, as well as some of their other features in this post such as non-top 10 prospects to watch and their top 10 under 25 in the organization.

That being said, the top 10 is below, along with some of my thoughts on the rankings themselves. At the bottom you will find our consensus top prospects rankings, which I will update when new lists come out.

  1. Marcelo Mayer, SS
  2. Nick Yorke, 2B
  3. Triston Casas, 1B
  4. Jarren Duran, OF
  5. Brayan Bello, RHP
  6. Jeter Downs, MIF
  7. Bryan Mata, RHP
  8. Gilberto Jimenez, OF
  9. Connor Seabold, RHP
  10. Blaze Jordan, CIF
  • So, first thing’s first. We’ll start right at the top, which is a bit of a change from what we’re used to seeing at the top of the list. Granted, it doesn’t come as a surprise because each of the top four prospects are in BP’s top 101 list, so we already knew the ordering. Still, it’s a bit surprising to see. Mayer being number one isn’t a huge surprise and I suspect we’ll see plenty of that this year, but Yorke being ahead of Casas is not something I am expecting much of. That’s not to say there’s not a reason for it. If someone is even a little uneasy about Casas’ bat, the defensive limitations there hinder his value. Yorke’s not a great second baseman, but most I talk to see him sticking there, so there’s simply less pressure on the bat. Personally, I have Casas at the top of the organization so I’m not saying I agree with the ranking necessarily, but it’s not without sound reasoning.
  • Moving beyond those top four, it seems like Bello is settling in as the number five in this group. BP, as far as I’ve seen, haven’t named him on a “just missed” list with respect to their top 101 list, but Baseball America did just that. I don’t think I have him on that level, but number five in the organization is more than defensible given the breakout we saw last year and the top-end stuff that he flashes. A sleeper heading into last season, he wasn’t totally consistent in 2021 but he took a step forward in that regard in terms of harnessing the command. I still want to see that more in the higher levels before I buy him being a slam dunk future starter, but the building blocks are all there.
  • On the other hand, I’m a little surprised seeing Mata still in top 10s. Granted, there is certainly some bias that plays into this because even before undergoing Tommy John last year I was among the lower people on the righty. For me, the big issue was whether he’d be able to handle a starter’s workload at his size (along with some command questions), and this injury just furthered those concerns. That said, much like Bello the stuff is such that I can’t really argue with those who are higher on him than me.
  • The distribution of pitchers beyond Bello just generally is interesting to me. Here, we see Seabold make the cut but guys like Wilkelman Gonzalez, Jay Groome, and Josh Winckowski are not on the list. Personally, I am enamored enough by Gonzalez that I would have him in the bottom portion of the top 10, and I would probably have Groome in the 5-7 range. I’m starting to think I’m one of the high guys on Groome at this point, but there were some flashes last season as he finally completed something close to a full season that my interest is once again piqued.

Here is the consensus rankings. (To make things simpler, for the average columns unranked players are ranked as the highest not-ranked position for that list. As an example, for players not listed on the BP top 10 their average considers them as ranked 11th on the list.)

Red Sox Consensus Prospect Rankings

Prospect Sox Prospects Baseball America Baseball Prospectus Keith Law FanGraphs MLB Pipeline Average Rank
Prospect Sox Prospects Baseball America Baseball Prospectus Keith Law FanGraphs MLB Pipeline Average Rank
Marcelo Mayer 2 1 1 1 2 1 1.3
Triston Casas 1 2 3 3 1 2 2
Nick Yorke 3 3 2 2 3 3 2.7
Jarren Duran 4 4 4 6 - 4 4.4
Brayan Bello 6 5 5 4 8 5 5.5
Jeter Downs 5 6 6 5 11 6 6.5
Bryan Mata 10 8 7 10 12 8 9.2
Blaze Jordan 7 7 10 13 16 7 10.0
Jay Groome 8 10 NR 7 13 12 10.2
Brandon Walter 17 11 NR 8 10 9 11.0
Wilkelman Gonzalez 12 13 NR 17 4 10 11.2
Gilberto Jimenez 9 23 8 12 5 18 12.5
Connor Seabold 11 21 9 19 7 15 13.7
Miguel Bleis 15 20 NR NR 6 17 15.0
Josh Winckowski 13 9 NR NR 27 14 15.8
Matthew Lugo 28 14 NR 9 31 13 17.7
Ronaldo Hernández 23 27 NR 15 9 24 18.2