FanPost

Fanpost Friday: The Biggest Red Sox Shocker


Going into the season, there was a bit of pessimism about this team. There were all sorts of question marks up and down the roster, and many fans believe that their projection systems of 82-85 or so wins was too generous. Now, if injuries hit us hard that could absolutely remain the case, and let's face it, there is a history of injuries on this team. But so far, they are exceeding expectations and that is a huge thing. Will they keep it up? Who knows. But they have certainly shown the talent is there.

And that's what I want to focus on. Admittedly, I pegged this team in a more positive light coming into the season, so seeing them start well is not a HUGE surprise to me. But, I don't think I saw them having the best record in the AL, no matter how much I squinted. And there are so many reasons for it. The offense, like Devers, Verdugo, Martinez, and Vazquez, have been tearing the cover off the ball at the right times. Our starting pitching, outside of one stinker, has been very solid. Our bullpen has held its own and often even more so. Whitlock, Andriese, Sawamura, and even at times Hernandez have been a revelation. Any one of these guys could be considered the biggest surprise. But I am going to take a look at one of our vets. Thats right, for me, the biggest surprise has been our closer, Matt Barnes.

Barnes has been around the team for awhile. Despite a devastating curveball, Barnes has always been a bit of an enigma. He has some control issues, and seemed to go on streaks of looking very good, to streaks of uselessness. Overall, despite some of the best K numbers in the league, his final results always ended up mediocre. It won't show up on the box score, but there have also been concerns about his ability to pitch under pressure. A career FIP and xFIP of around 3.50 shows he always lightly underperforms expectations, with his career 4.00 ERA. When looking at ERA- and FIP-, he has been about 10% better then league average over his career, which is good, but not a top tier bullpen pitcher either. However, his K rates have spiked recently, which has helped him improve his overall numbers.

But this season, he has been otherworldly. His 18.00 K/9, combined with the lowest BB% since 2015, has been a great start. An amazing 60% K-rate, a FIP of -0.01 (yes, seriously!), and an ERA- and FIP- of 0, have him in the conversation for best reliever in the entire game to start this season. Thats not good. That is ELITE. Coming into the season, one massive question was who would close, and is our bullpen strong enough to lock down games. So far, Barnes is answering that question in a big, big way. And obviously, this is a VERY small sample size. But, there is reason to believe he could keep it up.

Why? Well, he made a slight mechanical change in the off season. In is only subtle, but his deliver has changed in a way that can help him have slightly better command then he has in the past. When you pair a now more controllable, hard fast ball which his filthy curveball, suddenly hitters are at a massive disadvantage.

But he also has the benefit of a better bullpen then the previous two seasons. We have seen Barnes be pretty dominant before (though not THIS dominant). But in the past, he has struggled when he gets overworked, especially overworked constantly facing the middle of the order. But this season, Sawamura, Hernandez, Whitlock, Andriese, and even Ottavino can help relieve that burden for him. Keeping Barnes fresh, and not being the only reliable pitcher out of the pen, will pay MASSIVE dividends over the course of the year.

I have always been a defender of Barnes. I have said he has the makings of being an elite reliever, because his peripherals have at times approached elite. But the biggest shock so far this season? Barnes doesn't have the potential to be elite... he IS elite. And that could be the key to the season.