FanPost

Let's Be Optimistic About the Red Sox in 2020

It’s been a tough year to be a Red Sox fan. Coming off of a World Series title, a franchise record 108 wins, and with virtually the same roster returning in 2019, expectations were set really high. But injuries, inconsistencies, and some bad luck ran their course, and the Sox ended up winning only 84 games. This offseason has been just as disappointing, filled with trade rumors, managerial changes, an investigation into a cheating scandal, and no real impact moves. The front office just officially shipped out our best player in Mookie Betts and our third best pitcher in David Price, thinning out what was a rotation that already lacked depth. Now, spring training is about to start, and the Sox don’t even have a manager. Things are looking pretty bad for the Red Sox, and fans have a right to be nervous about the upcoming season. But I would like to take a few minutes to make the case for a Red Sox team that will make the playoffs and be one of the best teams in the MLB during the 2020 season, because optimism is way more fun than realism when it comes to sports.


First off, this is a similar roster to the team that won 108 games in 2018. I was way more optimistic about the Sox chances before the Betts trade, but even now, they look good. We essentially lost at most 14 WAR between Betts and Price, but that should be replaced by a solid 5 WAR from newcomer Alex Verdugo, and it's not hard to see someone putting up a league-average 2 WAR in Price’s place. That puts the team around 101 wins. Factor in losing Porcello and his 3 wins, and the Sox are around 98 wins. While people will likely scoff at that number, the point is that the Sox had a historically good team in 2018, and a lot of that talent is still on the roster, leaving the Sox with a team with lots of upside. So what is the best-case scenario for the Red Sox in 2020? Let’s begin with the pitching.


Chris Sale is still capable of being a dominant pitcher who posts a sub 3 ERA over 180 plus innings. If he stays healthy and repeats his 2018 season, the Red Sox will have a bond fida ace, one who will compete fpr the Cy Young. Eduardo Rodriguez has the upside to post an ERA in the low 3s over 200 innings, and that’s not even stretch after his breakout 2019 campaign. While Nathan Eovaldi has never put together a season in which he showcases his full potential, he has always had the talent to be a front-end starter. This could be the year he pitches 180 innings with a sub 4 ERA, giving the Red Sox three dominant starters that give the team a great chance to win every time they step on the field. While the other two spots in the rotation are iffy, there's a decent chance that Martin Perez is league-average and that using an opener as the fifth guy works out. In this case, the Red Sox would have a rotation that performs more like the one in 2018 than the one in 2019. Bullpens in the MLB are a lot like defenses in the NFL, in that they are super inconsistent from year to year. The Sox certainly have some potential in Brandon Workman, Matt Barnes, and Marcus Walden, among others, so in this optimistic scenario, let’s say they improve on last year's 20th ranked bullpen ERA and end up top 15ish.


As far as the offense goes, losing Mookie Betts sure hurts. Alex Verdugo has big shoes to fill, but if his performance from 2019 is averaged over a full season, he’ll be on the brink of an all-star in 2020, with lots of upside. Andrew Benintendi has always been capable of being a star player, and if he can bounce back to his 2018 performance or even improve up it, the Sox will have another all-star in the outfield. I think the best-case scenario for JBJ is to be a league-average hitter who provides incredible defensive value and is still an asset to the team, which I will certainly take. On the left side of the infield, the Sox have two legit MVP candidates in Devers and Bogaerts, who are capable of carrying this offense while playing excellent defense. The right side of the infield is in question, but in a best-case scenario, Michael Chavis fixes his fastball issues and becomes a threat at the plate and an average defensive second baseman, while Bobby Dalbec wins the starting job at first and goes on to be the rookie of the year. If Vasquez can repeat his 2019 season and JD Martinez continues to be one the the leagues premier hitters, the Red Sox can have the league’s best offense.


While it is unrealistic to expect this out of the Sox, I think we have a better team than most people believe. The offense can realistically repeat its top 5 performance from last season, and it really wouldn’t take much luck to improve upon even that. A breakout season from Benintendi and repeated 2019 seasons from everyone else is all it would take for the Sox to go from a dangerous line up to the best in the game. It will be hard for the Sox to have worse pitching than last season, so it’s reasonable to expect that they are around league average in that department. A dangerous lineup coupled with an average at worst rotation and a decent bullpen is a recipe to win a lot of games. It’s not unreasonable for the Red Sox to win 90 plus this year, and they certainly have upside to win the division. Once we make the playoffs, anything can happen. And hey, even if we underperform again, at least the Yankees haven’t made a world series in the last ten years, and at least we aren’t the Mariners!