FanPost

Red Sox who also belong on the trade block IF (and only if) Mookie gets traded

Let me preface this post by stating, once again, that I believe trading Mookie Betts is generally a bad idea, for multiple reasons. The main 2 are below:

  1. Between his salary and the 1 year of remaining control, his trade value to other clubs is currently at an all-time low, and the return wouldn't be anything near what Mookie is worth.
  2. Trading Mookie Betts = giving up on the 2020 season. This current roster is very talented, and I would prefer to see the Red Sox compete in 2020, rather than start a rebuild (or even go through a miniature "reload" like the Yankees did in 2016)
So don't lump me in with the "we should trade Mookie" crowd. Just because I'm coming to terms with this potential outcome doesn't mean I support it.

Now, having gotten that out of the way, let's talk about what Bloom and the rest of the front office should do after a hypothetical Betts trade, in the event that one actually comes to fruition. As I already covered, trading Mookie signals to Red Sox Nation and the rest of MLB that Boston is prioritizing the future over winning baseball games during the 2020 season. Red Sox owners and employees may say otherwise, but we all know this team ain't going anywhere in October sans the 2018 AL MVP.

Still, there's a reasonable expectation that, even if Betts is playing somewhere else in 2021, the Red Sox should remain competitive at that point. This isn't the Miami Marlins or the Pittsburgh Pirates. Boston has too much talent at the major league level and too much money to go through a full-fledged, multi-year rebuild right now.

With that being said, how does a Mookie-less Red Sox team set themselves up for "sustainable success" in 2021 and beyond? By acquiring and developing premium young talent in order to get above-average production out of underpaid players. How does a team achieve that? By trading away talent at the major league level for prospects.

Again, I'm not advocating for a complete overhaul. Rafael Devers and a few other names should be completely off limits in all trade discussions. But what about the guys who are scheduled to hit free agency in the next year or two? If subtracting a contributor from the lost 2020 Red Sox leads to a young, cheap contributor on the 2021 Red Sox who can fill a hole for the next half decade, why wouldn't you make that deal? What about the players who are peaking right now or will reach their peak before Boston is ready to compete again? Obviously no one has a crystal ball, but players who aren't franchise cornerstones should viewed as movable assets, and the goal with movable assets should be to SELL HIGH. (Just think of what Dombrowski could've gotten for Henry Owens and/or Blake Swihart a few years ago.)

So basically, I'm putting my GM cap on and exploring potential moves in a post-Mookie-trade world that make sense for the future, based on my logic.

Jackie Bradley, Jr.
Reason for trading him: JBJ is a free agent after the 2020 season who may or may not be brought back

Competitive teams are always looking to add a speedy, defense-first outfielder to bolster their depth at the deadline. His $11M salary doesn't make him a "good deal" but he doesn't represent a bad contract either. (He would've been non-tendered if he wasn't worth his salary.) His bat has always been streaky, so there's a chance he could go on a hot streak before the trade deadline, thus increasing his value. Even if he continues to provide below-average offense with stellar defense in CF, Bloom should be able to get something decent for the 2016 All-Star in late July, even if Boston has to kick in some money to offset his remaining salary.

J.D. Martinez
Reason for trading him: The outspoken DH has indicated that he wants to play for a competitive team, and he has another opt-out clause after this season.

If the Bloom trades Betts, this team will not be competitive in 2020, and J.D. Martinez doesn't wanna squander the backend of his peak years on a team that's going to miss the playoffs. I'm not suggesting that we should trade Martinez just to make him happy. However, if the front office upsets Martinez by keeping him around against his wishes, he has the power to walk away, leaving Boston empty-handed. Because of said opt-out clause, his age, and the lack of a defensive position (he has no business putting on a glove; only AL clubs should be interested) he might not bring back a Top 100 prospect. Still, he's one of the most complete, elite sluggers in all of baseball, which should warrant some interest from a power-starved lineup looking to contend this summer.

Brandon Workman
Reason for trading him: Relief pitchers are notoriously volatile, and Workman's 2019 production may be unsustainable. Also, he's a free agent after this season.

I'll admit, I've always been higher on Workman than most. His stuff doesn't turn heads, but he seems to get good results on a consistent basis, which is all you can ask for at the major league level. That being said, our current closer (by default) may have already reached his peak. His 2019 WAR was 3.2 (awesome for a relief pitcher) but his career mark sits at 3.3, which gives you an idea of his minimal impact prior to last season. I'm not saying he'll pull a Ryan Brasier and fall off a cliff, but some regression should be expected. Not to mention, he's in his walk year, and he'll turn 33 in August. It honestly might not be a terrible idea to field offers for him now, even if we hold onto Mookie.

Matt Barnes
Reason for trading him: The former first-round pick has 1 year of control beyond 2020 and may fetch a decent return for a team in need of bullpen help.

This is where the trade candidates start to go from obvious to less intuitive. Depending on how his season goes and what offers are out there, it might be a better idea to hold onto Barnes. However, every year, each contender is always looking for bullpen help at the trade deadline. In the heat of the pennant race, sometimes teams overpay. (See: Gleybar Torres for Aroldis Chapman.) Barnes might not be in the Kirby Yates/Brad Hand tier, but his track record plus another solid campaign in 2020, paired with a reasonable salary and a year of remaining control after this season could feasibly entice a short-sighted GM into coughing up a Top 100 prospect. If it does, Bloom should jump at the opportunity.

Eduardo Rodriguez
Reason for trading him: His 2019 season looks like an outlier, from both a durability and a performance standpoint, suggesting that his trade value may never be higher than it is right now.

I know. I've lost my marbles now, right? Just hear me out. Every Red Sox beat writer has gone out of his or her way this offseason to point out that our 3 highest-paid starters (Sale, Price, Eovaldi) all come with injury concerns, but no mention of E-Rod. Did everyone suddenly forget that he had never logged more than 137.1 innings in a single season before last year? Rodriguez has a left knee that is infamous for acting up on him. I like to tell myself that his career bests in ERA, wins, strikeouts, and WAR are the inevitable results of an emerging star and a sign of things to come, but I have a hard time actually believing it. I certainly hope for more of what we saw last year. I wouldn't bet on it though. Am I saying he's destined to watch his numbers deteriorate, or that he'll certainly land on the IL again this season? No. But I'm also not banking on him finishing tied for 6th in the AL Cy Young voting again this year. (Or any other year, for that matter.) Maybe another team does view him as an ace, or even a high-end number 3 starter, like Porcello was in 2018, but I see him as more of a 2019 version of 2017 Drew Pomeranz. This isn't to suggest we should trade the youngest member of our rotation purely for the sake of making a move. I guess what I'm saying is: if E-Rod could fetch a package similar to the one Tampa received for Chris Archer while Bloom was still with the Rays, that move should've happened yesterday.