Looking at some infield projections

We already did one of these for the outfield in case you missed that. We learned that you, the readers, believe Mookie Betts will be the most likely to achieve his lofty projection, whereas Jackie Bradley Jr is most likely to miss it. Of interest, most people expect J.D. to seemingly take a step back, which is honestly fair. There’s really nowhere to go but down for Martinez after his 2018.

The outfield is done now, though. Now it’s the infield’s turn. For the purposes of this article, I’ll only be looking at the three projected starters at second base, third base, and shortstop, and the tandem of Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce at first. Sorry Brock Holt and Eduardo Núñez, who are both projected to be below average in overall value anyway.

Dustin Pedroia

I’m choosing to start with Pedroia because I think he’s the single most unknown in the lineup. With the Sox not willing to spend anything of significance on the bullpen (at least so far), and both the Yankees and Astros still looking strong, it may be on Dustin Pedroia to be a hidden X-Factor for this Red Sox team in 2019. Or, at least insofar as a former MVP can truly be an X-Factor.

It’s weird to say about a player as consistently excellent as he’s been, a player we’ve learned to never count out, but the veteran feels like a bit of a forgotten man on the roster at this point. It’s not hard to understand why. He played in a career-low three games in 2018, and when he did play he didn’t quite look the same.

It’s entirely possible his career is done, but what if it isn’t? Let’s presume for a moment that Pedroia can bounce back and play at a good level once more. Even with the lack of an established closer (right now, you are looking at it being Matt Barnes, which is more than okay in my opinion), Boston may actually be a better team than last year.

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ESPN projects him at .292/.360/.398, with four big flies in about a third a season’s worth of games. If Pedroia can reach base even 35% of the time, we have to consider it a victory. In this case, his Steamer projection is much more realistic, they have him at .272/.344/.390, with 8 home runs in two thirds of a season’s worth of games. If he puts up the Steamer numbers, I think we’d all be very happy, even though a 1.6 fWAR season would be a significant step back from the heights he’s reached in the past.

Without question, Pedroia appears to be at the end of a great career. The only question is whether his body will hold out until the end of the contract or if we’re going to have to beg him to get off the field before he literally destroys himself. He has three years left on his contract.

Xander Bogaerts

Last season was the year seemingly everything finally came together for Xander. He showed some of the power he showcased in 2016, showed some of the leather he flashed in 2015, and walked more than he had since 2013. It was the best season of his entire career in terms of overall value, and was definitely his most well-rounded season ever as well. Yet despite this, he didn’t quite crack the 5.0 fWAR barrier, largely because he missed 26 games for various reasons. He was a top-5 shortstop in all of baseball last season in all but title, since all anybody seems to look at is fWAR to determine those things.

So what is there left for Xander to prove, as he enters his last season before becoming a free agent? Wait, he’s already there? Turns out, the last five years have just flown by, and little Xander is on the verge of earning big bucks. In theory anyway. Manny Machado and Bryce Harper still haven’t signed, after all. Not that he’s in the same class of super star, but we’ve seen big players take less than they probably should be getting, or at least what they were getting just a few short years ago.

One Big Question: Can we expect Xander Bogaerts to maintain his power gains?

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The biggest thing for Xander to improve on is still his defense. Last season, by UZR/150, he was just about middle of the pack in terms of defense. That is fine since given the value he carries in his bat any defensive value you get out of him is more or less a surplus. That said the defense may end up making the difference in getting him that super contract he may well deserve.

ESPN projects Xander to hit 287/.355/.474 with 20 HR and 13 SB, and believes that the improvements in his swing from last season will stick. Steamer projects a similar .286/.355/.465, with 19 HR and 9 SB. Neither projection seems particularly outlandish to me.

I hope this isn’t the last season we have Bogaerts in Boston... but if it is, be prepared for excellence. Not much seems to motivates players like contract years, and he’s going to be motivated to make big money with the current CBA limiting earnings for all but the best of the best.

Rafael Devers

Devers had an up-and-down 2018. After his superb coming out party in 2017, he hit the wall of advanced scouting and had his weaknesses hammered all season long. He got on rolls, but then came to an abrupt halt several times throughout the year. While growing pains are to be expected, expectations also say Devers should be better than he showed last summer. If he isn’t, fans will get restless even if he’s only 22 years old.

One of the things Devers needs to do better to get there is to do a better job with pitch recognition. Last season he took a lot of good pitches down the middle, and he swung at some real confusing pitches shortly afterward. It’s not shocking that he ranked 33rd in infield fly ball percentage (minimum 300 PA). There are very few good players at the top of this particular leaderboard.

Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

His defense also has to get better. He showed some great leather at times, but was bafflingly inconsistent with basic plays just the same. It’s fine that he’s not a Gold Glover out there, slinging the ball with the precision of Tom Brady, but he should probably be better than being one of the bottom five qualified third basemen in many defensive metrics.

ESPN projects Devers to largely figure things out. They have him at .263/.320/.473, with 26 home runs. This would be closer to his 2017 numbers, and a very welcome result. Steamer has him at .271/.329/.477, which would be even better, especially since they also project him to improve with the glove. These things combined have him projected for a 2.6 fWAR.

Steve Pearce/Mitch Moreland

It’s entirely possible that by mid-season, one of these two separates themselves from the other, and is the full-time starter. The more likely case is they both play roughly the same amount of time. Pearce was a World Series hero, obviously, but Moreland should not be forgotten, as he’s been a consistent performer the last two seasons in Boston.

Expectations for Pearce should probably be lowered, too. He played out of his mind post-trade, and while he’s a good hitter, he’s was almost certainly performing a bit over his head.

ESPN projects Pearce to hit .278/.358/.481, with 11 home runs in close to a third of a season’s worth of plate appearances. Meanwhile they have Moreland at .247/.321/.438, with 18 home runs on the strong side of the platoon.

Steamer has Pearce at .267/.344/.471, 12 homers, and Moreland at .251/.325/.442, 14 homers. Moreland is again projected to have more plate appearances.

I’m not sure how much I buy into either of Pearce or Moreland. First base is one of those positions where if the Red Sox get positive value you’ll accept it — however little it is — and move on to more important matters.

Boston will be paying the two a combined $12.75 million to put up decent production, so we really can’t complain either way. Both are free agents at the end of the year, and I think there’s a decent chance both leave to free up money to sign other players back. Their replacement in 2020 is probably in the minors right now. Take your pick between Michael Chavis, Bobby Dalbec, and Josh Ockimey.

It’s poll time. In the first poll, choose the player you believe most likely to achieve their projections. In the second poll, choose the player you believe least likely to do just that.