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What A Relief! Diving into the state of the Red Sox bullpen for 2019

First off, I would like to preface my post by saying, yes, this is ANOTHER article about the Red Sox bullpen situation. Most fans may feel the subject is beaten to death already, so, read at your own peril!

With that out of the way, I will start by saying that this article is meant to explore what options are out there for the Red Sox, given what we have in our organization currently. It is meant to be a "hopeful" post. That said, it is clear that the bullpen is a concern, no matter how many ways you slice it. Moreover, at this point in the offseason, there isn’t a lot out there to help. Sure, Kimbrel is out there (and I STRONGLY advocate for DD to go get him!) but beyond that the market is pretty bare. The top 10 relievers left, in order of 2018 fWAR, are: Kimbrel (1.5), Tony Sipp (0.9), Nick Vincent (0.7), Tyler Clippard (0.5), Aaron Loup (0.3), Adam Warren (0.3), Bud Norris (0.2), Ryan Madson (0.2), John Axford (0.2) and Santiago Castilla (0.1). No other reliever left had a WAR above 0.0. Looking at that list is, not so inspiring. Arguments could be made that a few of these guys may be incremental improvements over what we have. And that may be true! But, outside of Kimbrel, none of these guys seem to move the needle, in my estimation. They are also bullpen pitchers that are typically up and down, so they represent risky signings anyway. At this point, it seems likely to roll the dice with what we have.

So, what DO we have? And can it actually hold up over a season of tough, competitive baseball for a team contending for another World Series? I’ll answer the second question first, and say that I do believe it can. It is by no means a great bullpen, and it isn’t as good as our bullpen last season, given we lost a HOF closer. That said, I am not sure that the impact this bullpen will have is as drastic as it may seem. In 2018 the Sox bullpen had a 70% save percentage, 4.9 fWAR total, 3.72 ERA, 3.85 FIP, and 4.05 xFIP in 587.1 innings pitched. While that is very good, projections for the 2019 bullpen aren’t dramatically far off from that. Assuming the bullpen pitches 600 innings this season and gain a full .5 on last seasons ERA, that would amount to 33 runs more allowed over the course of the 162 game season, or roughly one more run every 5 games. That isn’t great! I’d rather we don’t have that happen! But, it may not cause the demise of the Red Sox the way some are predicting.

Now, to answer who we DO have. I’ve broken the group into 4 categories: 40-man roster players without options, 40-man roster players with options, Non-roster invities, and highlighted players not yet invited to major league spring training. After each grouping, I’ll give some thoughts on interesting players.

40-Man Roster players without options (or that are guarenteed to make roster barring injury):

Matt Barnes

Ryan Brasier

Tyler Thornburg

Heath Hembree

Brian Johnson

Brandon Workman

Stephen Wright

So, to start off, technically both Ryan Brasier and Matt Barnes have options remaining. But, given they are the two best relief pitchers on the roster, I doubt they are going anywhere. For the rest of the group, none of them should have guarenteed spots. They all play a role, but the upside isn’t great. Thornburg could be the best of the bunch, but we still don’t know what to expect coming off injury. Ditto Wright (who should be a guarantee to be in the bullpen assuming health, but his knee is still bothering him.) Workman and Hembree are innings eaters, but shouldn’t be relied on for much beyond that. Brian Johnson is a useful player as a swing-man, but can be easily replaced. Overall, this group is uninspiring, but if Barnes, Brasier, and Wright can repeat their 2018, there is hope in this group. And maybe lightning strikes and Thornburg returns to form!

Still, this group could stand for some improvement. So what potential improvement lies in our system currently?

40-Man Roster players with options:

Colton Brewer

Darwinzon Hernandez

Travis Lakins

Bobby Poyner

Josh Taylor

Hector Velazquez

Marcus Walden

Chandler Shepard

Denyi Reyes

The final four players on this list are all swing-man types, which are very useful but not necessarily going to move the needle, so for now I’m going to skip over them, though they will be very important if injuries arise in our rotation! However, all the rest of the names on this list consist of young prospects with some great potential. Hernandez needs a bit more work in the minors, but all of Lakins, Brewer, Taylor, and Poyner are ready right now and could make an impact on the major league roster. Of course, they all have faults as well. Brewer had a tough first go around in the majors, albeit in a very small sample size. Lakins was only recently converted to relief and could have growing pains, though so far it has worked well for him. Poyner showed success last year but his ceiling is still likely a middle relief type, not a back end anchor. Taylor has yet to post truly dominant numbers even in the minors, though he has flashed good stuff and could be solid from the left side if he can stay consistent. The Sox clearly see potential as well, since he was protected in the rule 5 draft. All told, though, this group has some great potential, and any could make the roster out of spring training. With the exception of Hernandez, they likely don’t fill the highest leverage roles, but if things go right they could definitely improve those 6th and 7th inning spots currently held by Hembree and Workman.

Dombrowski has also been active in signing relievers, but not the ones we expected, and rather on minor league contracts. So, who are they?

Non-Roster Invities:

Zach Putnam

Mike Sharawyn

Erasmo Ramirez

Carson Smith

Josh Smith

Domingo Tapia

Ryan Weber

This list also has some intrigue, though the question marks are larger here. Carson Smith could be good, but he is still not healthy and until he can get there, he can’t be relied on. Sharawyn, Weber, and Ramirez are all swing-man types, with Sharawyn likely holding the highest upside of our group of swingmen and could find himself in a starting role in 2020. Zach Putnam has had some great success in the majors in the past, to the tune of a 3.11 ERA and striking out over a batter per inning. He was out with tommy john surgery in 2018, but if he’s healthy, he respresents a serious possibility to upgrade our relief situation. Domingo Tapia has decent stuff, but has yet to make the majors. Josh Smith is similar to Taylor in that he is a lefty with decent potential. Putnam clearly represents the highest upside here, but there are a couple other names to keep an eye on as well.

Finally, we have the group least likely to make the team out of spring training, simply because they weren’t even invited to major league camp. This worked out okay for Ryan Brasier last season though, so we could find another diamond in the rough!

Non-Roster players who are intriguing but not yet invited to ST:

Durbin Feltman

Jenrry Mejia

Brian Ellington

Zack Schellenger

Austin Maddox*

note: Maddox is our for the 2019 season with injury but could be an impact in 2020

Clearly, the biggest name here is Durbin Feltman. He will be on the Red Sox active roster at some point this season, and has the capability of being a legitimate late inning reliever, possibly even closer. He is a top 10 Sox prospect and there is plenty to be excited about! But we need to resist the urge to rush him too soon; let him get comfortable in the minors and call him up when he’s figured out AAA. Zach Schellenger is a poor mans Feltman, in that he is a reliever with the ability to move quickly through the organization, albeit with a lower ceiling then Feltman. Mejia offers a very intriguing piece for us. He is a former Mets closer who had success in the league but couldn’t lay off the steroids. If he can regain form, he is another legitimate closing option for the Sox. Brian Ellington is another reliever who was very successful in 2015 and 2016 (like Mejia), but unlike Mejia he continued to pitch in 2017 and 2018. 2017 was bad, and injuries hurt him last season. Again, if healthy, he could regain form and be another solid late inning possibility. This group has maybe the most likelihood to change the scope of our bullpen, though the floor for all except Feltman is pretty low.

Well, there we have it. There are a lot of options in the system, though all have some big question marks. That said, it’s not THAT hard to see the Sox bullpen becoming a much better asset if even just a couple of these guys pan out. We have some possibilities here! Granted, it is scary, but there is a path to legitimate major league bullpen success in our very near future. Now, it’s up to our coaching staff to cultivate that talent and hopefully stabilize what could be a weakness in 2019. Looking at this list, I’m scared, but I have some real hope too.

The site would not let me post a poll, so I will ask here: Which pitcher do you think has the best chance of impacting the 2019 bullpen? Anyone outside of the prospects group? Discuss in the comments!

*This was typed on my phone, so please pardon any typos.