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Bobby Dalbec tops Baseball Prospectus’ top Red Sox prospects list

Another top prospect list

Bobby Dalbec
Kelly O’Connor;

Another day, another top prospect list. Baseball Prospectus has been running through their top ten prospects for every team in baseball over the last few months, and today was the end of that run with the World Champs. You can see the list here. BP has been a bit lower on Red Sox guys for a couple of years now, though it’s hard to blame them considering....*gestures at the farm system in general.* Still, there has been a lack of consensus among most lists at the top, and that continues here. Before we get into it, just like with Keith Law’s list this one is behind a paywall. Because of that, we won’t really go into the write-ups too much. Here’s their top ten.

  1. Bobby Dalbec
  2. Michael Chavis
  3. Triston Casas
  4. Tanner Houck
  5. Durbin Feltman
  6. Jay Groome
  7. Darwinzon Hernandez
  8. Bryan Mata
  9. Mike Shawaryn
  10. Nick Decker
  • Dalbec finds himself back at the top of a Red Sox list just ahead of Chavis and Casas. We’ve had this discussion many times, and I’ve been pretty clear that I believe Chavis is the clear top prospect in the system. Still, given Dalbec’s power potential and his superior defense at third base, it’s not hard to see the argument.
  • This is a somewhat high ranking for Houck, though it seemingly has more to do with a lack of interest in the lower-ranked prospects than a love for Houck. They do talk up his fastball a whole bunch and his potential as a reliever, for what that’s worth.
  • The BP staff also seems to be lower on Hernandez than most everyone else in the industry. On the one hand, that’s a little distressing because the positive reviews have been piling up over the last couple of months. On the other hand, it’s probably not a bad thing to have the hype slowed down a bit. I think we may be a little too confident in him, and Feltman for that matter, coming in and contributing in a big way immediately. It’s certainly not impossible, but it probably shouldn’t be the expectation.
  • Decker has become somewhat forgotten after missing pretty much all of last season after being drafted in the second round. Casas also missed time, of course, but it’s easier to remember a first round pick. Still, Decker has the big power of the big names at the top of this system, though he’s less likely to reach something approaching that ceiling.
  • BP also has one of m favorite features on their list as they rank the top-ten under-25 players in the system. Often, this can be a better judgement of an organization’s future. The top three players on that list are Andrew Benintendi, Eduardo Rodriguez and Rafael Devers. It was a little surprising seeing Rodriguez ahead of Devers, but he’s proven more at the major-league level. Still, having those three on a list makes things look much better for the Red Sox.

And with that, prospect season is almost done. Below is a table showing how the system shakes out from all the major evaluators in the industry. MLB Pipeline is the last site remaining, and they’ll put out their lists next week. It’s worth noting that the average column is a bit misleading since not everyone is on every list. It’s just a rough outline.

Red Sox Top Prospects

Player Sox Prospects Baseball America Fangraphs Minor League Ball Keith Law Baseball Prospectus MLB Pipeline Average
Player Sox Prospects Baseball America Fangraphs Minor League Ball Keith Law Baseball Prospectus MLB Pipeline Average
Michael Chavis 1 2 3 1 5 2 1 2.142857143
Triston Casas 2 5 1 2 2 3 2 2.428571429
Jay Groome 3 4 8 7 4 6 5 5.285714286
Darwinzon Hernadez 4 3 2 4 1 7 4 3.571428571
Bobby Dalbec 5 1 7 3 6 1 3 3.714285714
Tanner Houck 6 7 5 5 3 4 6 5.142857143
Bryan Mata 7 6 9 5 12 8 8 7.857142857
Antoni Flores 8 9 4 10 8 7 7.666666667
C.J. Chatham 9 10 12 9 15 9 10.66666667
Durbin Feltman 10 11 11 13 5 12 10.33333333
Mike Shawaryn 12 8 16 8 11 9 13 11
Nick Decker 11 6 12 10 10 11 10
Travis Lakins 15 10 17 14 17 14.6
Alex Scherff 19 7 21 15.66666667
Danny Diaz 14 19 9 14 14
Jarren Duran 16 13 14 10 13.25