FanPost

What Should the Asking Price Be for Mookie Betts?

I’ll begin this piece by stating that, as a Red Sox fan, I do not support the idea of Chaim Bloom trading Boston’s best player prior to the 2020 season. There is absolutely no way that subtracting him from the roster improves the team in the short term, and the odds of such a move panning out well for Boston in the long run are incredibly slim. I also believe the team will ultimately hold onto its 2011 fifth round pick throughout the entirety of his walk year for multiple reasons, which I’ll cover momentarily.

However, it’s too soon to rule anything out. As dumb as it would be to sell low on the best player in baseball not named Mike Trout, it would be equally as foolish to completely disregard any and all trade offers for the 2018 American League MVP. If a potential suitor wants to give up a King’s ransom for one year of Betts’s services (while simultaneously taking on part or all of his projected $27-30 million salary in order to help Boston get under the luxury tax threshold) then Bloom should give this decision serious consideration. After all, if he’s truly dead set on becoming a free agent, Boston can always bring him back with a new contract after the 2020 season, much like the Yankees did with Aroldis Chapman in 2016 after trading him to the Cubs for Gleybar Torres.

But what does that ambiguous "King’s ransom" package look like? How much would another team have to overpay to pry the face of the Red Sox from Boston? Because, let’s face it, the other team would need to surrender more than Betts is worth on paper. It’s the only way to justify trading a beloved franchise icon – both on and off the field – less than 18 months after he won every individual award imaginable en route to the only Big Papi-less World Series championship any living, breathing Red Sox fan can remember.

I will get into what Bloom & Co. should demand in exchange for Mookie shortly, but first, let’s cover all the reasons why trading him probably won’t ever come to fruition…

1. His inevitable free agency. The VC Sports Group client has repeatedly stated that he has no intentions of signing an extension before he hits free agency following the 2020 season. All indications suggest that’s regardless of whether he finishes his rookie contract with the Red Sox or another organization. Whoever trades for him is taking a one-year gamble, hoping that it pans out similarly to the Toronto Raptors-Khawi Leonard trade.

2. His salary. As mentioned above, the 4-time Gold-Glove RF can expect to make somewhere between $27-30 million in his final year of arbitration. Even for the richest teams, that number equates to roughly 15% of the salary cap luxury tax threshold. That’s not to suggest that he isn’t worth the money, but some teams won’t have room in their current budget, while others may have to consider how Mookie’s financial commitment affects their ability to fill other needs via free agency. Regardless, trade partners won’t be getting a superstar at a financial discount; they’ll be paying a premium price for a premium asset.

3. His sentimental value to the Red Sox. Other franchises could care less about what he did for Boston, but both ownership and the front office would have to answer to an inconsolable Red Sox Nation if Betts were shipped out of town. Between the jerseys sold, the 2018 World Series banner, and that infectious smile, he’s irreplaceable. I never imagined any single player could make this fanbase move on from the Big Papi Era so quickly, but Mookie’s done just that. Selling him even for fair value wouldn’t make up for the heartbreak of willfully jettisoning Boston’s favorite professional athlete outside of Tom Brady. If Bloom is going to send Betts packing, he must win the trade, and win it BIG.

Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s proceed. Up next, the unthinkable. Should any other GM envision Mookie Betts wearing his team’s uniform on Opening Day next season, he better be prepared to part with the following pieces:

An MLB-caliber starting pitcher to fill out the rotation

Rick Porcello is a free agent, leaving Boston with just 4 established starting pitchers, each of whom has some degree of uncertainty surrounding his health/injury history. (E-Rod may have had a breakout 2019 season, but his knee has been very unreliable in previous years. Expecting 30 starts out of him next year is still somewhat ambitious, perhaps a little naïve.) Personally, I would like to see Bloom add at least 2 starters for depth purposes before next year, including a cheap, backend start who would be willing to accept a 1-2 year deal, like Tanner Roark or Jordan Lyles. Maybe even Rick Porcello himself, depending on the price tag.

If Mookie goes anywhere via trade, a relatively young starting pitcher capable of immediately slotting into the rotation should be prerequisite number one. I’m not talking about a Triple-A arm who will be ready to join the big league club by June; I’m talking about a guy who’s made at least 20 career starts at the major league level, experienced some degree of success during that time, and has multiple years of control remaining. Maybe that’s Kenta Maeda for the Dodgers, or Mike Foltynewicz for the Braves, or Joey Lucchesi for the Padres (though I’d prefer a RH arm to balance out all the southpaws in our current rotation) but letting go of Mookie without netting an upgrade to the rotation would be completely unacceptable.

An outfielder (or another position player) to replace the outfielder being dealt

Trading the former second baseman only creates another hole, both in the lineup and on defense. Most outfielders will represent a downgrade, both offensively and defensively, in comparison to Betts, but the fact remains that there are 3 outfield positions that must be filled, with or without Mookie. Current minor league outfield prospects Jarren Duran, Marcus Wilson, and Nick Decker are still too far away to fill in the hypothetical opening left in RF. Similarly, I do not trust Sam Travis or Michael Chavis to handle the duties of a regular starter, and J.D. Martinez has no business putting on a glove, so making sure another outfielder is included in the return package becomes imperative.

Alternatively, we can get creative here because the Red Sox currently have other positional needs, and the free agent market for corner outfielders isn’t nearly as competitive and overpriced as the market for pitchers. If the trade partner wants to send back a starting second baseman (don’t bank on Pedroia coming back, or Chavis being an everyday solution) or perhaps a quality LH hitting 1B to platoon with Chavis/Dalbec, then Bloom could take the money that would’ve been spent on addressing one of those positions and use it on a short-term deal for a stopgap corner outfielder. (Tell me Yasiel Puig pimping a homerun ball in Yankee Stadium wearing a Sox uni wouldn’t be awesome.) Either way, a quality major league position player – one who represents more than just a bench piece – should be requirement number two for the GM trying to obtain Mookie Betts.

Prospect(s) to make this a worthwhile trade for Boston

Two major league players in the solid-to-good range won’t be enough for Betts, regardless of how many years of control each player has remaining. If Boston puts an end to the Mookie Betts chapter of this franchise’s history, then the next chapter needs to begin with one or more guys who have a good chance of spending the next half decade playing their home games at Fenway.

One elite pitching prospect (maybe Ian Anderson of the Braves, or perhaps Dustin May of the Dodgers) should move the needle enough the check off this box. Ideally, the prospect coming back would instantly become the new number 1 prospect in Boston’s farm system. For reference, Triston Cases, Boston’s consensus top prospect, falls in the 80-100 overall range on MLB.com and Baseball America. Essentially, the ask is a top 80 prospect, regardless of position. Preferably, he’d be closer to making his major league debut than Casas.

If the other team doesn’t want to part with a prospect of that caliber, the prevailing logic would be understandable. Especially in today’s baseball landscape, where hoarding prospects is as trendy as cat memes on Twitter, relinquishing a cheap, young player with a high ceiling and multiple years of control as part of a package for a one-year rental could be highly criticized. That doesn’t affect my demands or my perceived trade value of Mookie Betts, nor should it affect Bloom’s, but this is where the negotiations could get tricky. If the very best prospects are off limits, then the next step would be to ask for multiple prospects of the next highest tier. These prospects should still have a good chance of making it to the majors one day, even if they lack superstar potential. They would likely crack most organizations’ top 10, but probably not the Top 100 in all of baseball. When the Astros traded for Zack Greinke, they were able to hold onto their top 2 prospects, RHP Forrest Whitley and OF Kyle Tucker – both highly accomplished minor leaguers who were each seen as Top 50 MLB prospects at the time of the trade – by coughing up their number 3, 4, and 5 ranked prospects. Depending on the trade partner, a similar package of good-if-not-great prospects would satisfy this third requirement, in lieu of 1 truly elite prospect. The latter option also gives Bloom the opportunity to pursue multiple arms, which seems to be an organizational weakness.

Additional Asset(s) to offset for the loss of a potential Compensatory pick

If Bloom does ultimately trade Mookie Betts, he won’t just be trading the player himself. He’d also be trading away the chance to extend Betts a qualifying offer. That may be perhaps the most overlooked variable of this whole exercise. Not only does this hinder (albeit marginally) the value other teams place on signing Betts, it also guarantees that Betts doesn’t leave Boston completely empty handed. In a worst-case scenario where Mookie plays out 2020 with the Red Sox and subsequently leaves for another team in free agency following the season, Boston would still receive a compensatory pick at the end of the first round. Previous Red Sox compensatory picks include Clay Buchholz, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Michael Kopech, amongst others. Plus, they’re the only draft picks that can be traded. Frankly, for an organization with a new decision maker in charge, it wouldn’t surprise me if the front office values that compensatory pick over many current prospects that other teams could offer Boston in a trade package. Many Mookie Betts trade rumor articles indicate that Boston risks losing their superstar for "nothing" at the end of next season, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. The fact is that a potential compensatory pick counts for something, and it shouldn’t be written off in trade negotiations.

It would be fair of Bloom to ask for something else (on top of the package outlined above) to both solidify a difficult deal and make up for the lost comp pick which the Red Sox would receive if Betts left Boston via free agency. Maybe that takes the form of an additional prospect with high upside. Maybe it’s international pool money or cash considerations. Maybe Bloom sends Nathan Eovaldi and his awful contract along with Mookie, with the understanding that the trade partner takes all the financial obligations. (If we keep going with the Braves/Dodgers scenario I’ve been tossing out there, maybe it’s the compensatory pick in the 2020 MLB Draft that one of them would receive if/when Donaldson or Ryu signs elsewhere.)

Conclusion

So to sum up the figurative price tag I’ve placed on Mookie Betts, it goes…

  • Mid-rotation starter with multiple years of control
  • Starting-caliber OF, 2B, or 1B
  • One elite prospect, or multiple quality prospects with high floors
  • A metaphorical cherry on top, ideally in the form of either future assets or financial relief

Again, just to be perfectly clear, this is not a prediction. I do not believe this will happen, as it would be wildly unpopular in Boston and extremely risky for the other team. This also is not an endorsement of the notion of trading Mookie. I bought his jersey (the extra expensive one with the World Series champions patch on the sleeve) the week after the 2018 World Series, and I would be as heartbroken as any Sox fan to see him traded away.

But if Andrew Friedman called his old buddy Chaim and offered him Maeda, Alex Verdugo, Dustin May, plus $1 million in international pool money and a 2020 comp pick for Betts plus Eovaldi (no cash considerations attached on Boston’s behalf) then Bloom would have to at least think about it.