There is nothing quite like preseason projections to get people all riled up on the internet. We all know that these things mean nothing, but when it’s the only slice of baseball we have in a very cold period of the year, we have to latch on to something. This goes doubly true for when said projections come from casinos, because for some reason we believe they know what they are doing. To be fair, they are very good at what they do — they wouldn’t survive in that business if they weren’t — but they don’t actually have special knowledge.
Anyway, all of this is to say we got some fresh over/unders from Cesar Palace, one of the biggest casinos in Vegas. You can check out the full list of bets below.
Again, I want to reiterate that these don’t matter. Especially not in the beginning of January when many of the biggest names in free agency are still on teams. That’s also what makes this fun, though. Anyway, the Red Sox had their over/under set at 95 1⁄2 , which is pretty high! They have to win 96 games to get the over here (you know, how numbers work?), a mark which was met by just five teams in baseball last year. They’re highly thought of! On the other hand, 96 games would also be a 12-game drop from 2018, and they are also projected by this data to be a wildcard team. Cesars has both the Yankees (96 1⁄2 ) and the Astros (97 1⁄2 ) ahead of Boston.
There is logic behind this, of course, Casinos don’t really profit from making illogical decisions. Both of these teams are immensely talented with a young core that are coming off a pair of 100-win seasons. The Astros lost some of their rotation, but they still have Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, not to mention a loaded lineup. The Yankees, meanwhile, still have Aaron Judge and the rest of that fearsome lineup, brought in James Paxton and are still favorites to sign Manny Machado. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if they do indeed finish ahead of the Red Sox in the standings this year. That being said, I’d still make the Red Sox favorites. My obvious bias probably shouldn’t be ignored here!
Some of these other over/unders are interesting, too. The Braves and Phillies seem too low to me, as do the Reds. On the other hand, the Dodgers and Twins seem a bit too high. The one that really jumps out to me the most, however, are the Orioles. Their over/under is set at 59. FIFTY NINE! 5! 9! That is bananas. The next worse team (Kansas City) had their over/under set ten games higher. Poor Baltimore.