The Red Sox can take a commanding 3 games to 1 lead over the Astros in the ALCS behind Rick Porcello (17-7, 4.28 ERA) tonight in Houston (8:39 p.m., TBS).

About Game 4: Good Porcello, should he appear tonight, has a chance to push the Sox to within a game of the World Series. Bad Porcello has the chance to make it a dogfight with Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole looming for Games 5 and 6. Each Porcello has started against the Astros this year, but only Good Porcello pitched in Houston, going 6.1 innings and allowing 2 runs. I’d be pretty darn happy if he just ran that back, y’know?

Even that might not be enough because the Astros, in very Astros-ian form, throw a guy who’d be the ace on half of the teams in the league in Game 4. Charlie Morton (15-3, 3.13 ERA) is an oldie but a goodie, a late-bloomer who, in any other scenario, is easy to root for. He also made two starts against the Sox this year, with one good and one bad, only his bad one came in Houston, where he gave up 5 runs in 5.1 innings. I’d be ecstatic if he just ran that back, y’know?

As for the lineup, Rafael Devers is back at third base and Brock Holt at second, praise be. For the Astros, Alex Bregman is in the leadoff spot, because they’re not stupid.

About Game 3: A taut, tense game was ripped wide open in the eighth inning when Jackie Bradley Jr. hit a career-defining grand slam into the stands in right, clearing the way for the 8-2 Sox victory.

Forecast: Anxiety.

Today’s reading: Here are Matt’s Game 3 thoughts.

A good tweet:

LINEUPS