FanPost

The coming year will determine whether to trade Leon or Swihart

So here I am preparing to make my FanPost Friday contribution in which I will spell out what should give in the Red Sox catcher situation - whether I think they should trade one of Swihart, Vazquez, or Leon, and if so, who, and for what? And then you will read and start automatically disagreeing with those choices of mine that don't fit with what you've already decided about the situation.

But let's not do that.

Let's do some thinking here first. Let's all get very clear in our own minds about three questions, which I ask you all now to ask yourselves:

What are all the things that "catcher defense" entails, and have I been giving each one its due consideration?

Would I take the catcher with the elite bat and average defense over the catcher with the average bat and elite defense?

And finally, where do I think each of Blake Swihart, Sandy Leon, and Christian Vazquez stand in terms of both offensive and defensive value?

Go ahead and think on all that for a bit.

How is it going?

I know a lot of you already had your minds made up about the third question. I've recently been thinking about that first question, though, and it's helped me clarify where I stand on the second question. I'm hoping what it did for me, it does for you - well at least for those of us who hadn't fully considered these questions before. A lot of baseball fans have - just look at the thorough answers to that first question that can be found here and here. And maybe you already have too, and know that there are five aspects of catcher defense being studied right now:

1. Normal fielding (fielding bunts, fielding popups, and tagging runners out at the plate)

2. Controlling the Running Game

3. Pitch framing

4. Blocking

5. Game management

(Some have "game calling" where I have "game management". To me, game calling is just one aspect of game management, the one where you suggest which pitch to throw. I also include in game management anything the catcher does to boost a pitcher's confidence and performance - what he says, how he listens, how he carries himself, giving praise, and letting the pitcher know he's got your back.)

There's a lot there, and there's a lot of overall value in catcher defense when you add up the value of each part. In one of those links above there's a quote that pitch framing alone may be worth 3 to 4 wins a year for the catchers who do it well. How much might the other 4 components add up to? We don't even know yet, especially for game management or even just game calling. But I bet we're talking at least 6 or 7 games, possibly a good bit more, of value based on catcher defense.

And that's why I would take the elite defensive catcher with the average bat over the average defensive catcher with the elite bat.

Would you?

Maybe you still wouldn't, and that's fine, but I'm hoping at least a lot of us will concede that we just haven't been placing enough value on catcher defense. And my greater emphasis on catcher defense is what will make my choices as the Red Sox' "catchers-only GM" different than what many others would choose. Just so we all understand that. Please keep that in mind as you read the following.

Okay, now that that's out of the way, we have to answer where do Swihart, Vazquez, and Leon land on these average-to-elite ranges?

This seems to be the best time to summarize the results of the poll I ran halfway through spring training this year, asking who would be the primary Red Sox catcher coming out of the All Star break this year (regardless of who it may have been before), and who would be the backup. Most of the 87 votes gave a 1-2-3 rank ordering, which can be broken down into three head-to-head matchups. Head-to-head, 77% of OTM voters had Swihart ahead of Leon; 81% had Vazquez ahead of Leon; and 58% had Swihart ahead of Vazquez.

I agreed that Vazquez would end up above Leon, but I had Swihart at the bottom of this trio, and not the top as the consensus seemed to be. I expressed in the comments of this FanPost why I think Leon's good run with the bat last year was no fluke, and though I don't expect him to be as good this year as he was in that run, I do expect he will have an above-average bat. As for Vazquez, I looked at winter ball play and changes in approach that purportedly brought them about. To that, I added a long-standing belief that, being Christian Vazquez, he would find a way, somehow, someday, to improve his bat into an asset. Adding it all up, I bought into the idea that Vazquez will have close to a league-average bat this year, maybe even a bit better.

A lot of folks seem to think Swihart's bat will be something special. I don't think so, though I do think it has a ceiling of what I call "well-above average". It will take some change from what he's been in AAA and the majors to achieve that ceiling - his bat has been average to below average at both of these levels. But there are reasons we can find for his bat being held back over these past two to three years, including having to learn a lot about the defensive side of catching at the upper levels before he was totally ready, having an initial adjustment period at each level, having to learn to play left field, and of course injury. He did have a strong finish in 2015 after having had a few months to adjust. Then again, there are plenty of examples in baseball history of minor-league stars whose bats just can't make the transition to the majors. So I'll say his range with the bat will be anywhere from average to well above average.

For the record, I break up player relative rankings into these seven roughly equal sized levels:

  • Elite and Excellent
  • Well above average
  • Above average
  • Average
  • Below average
  • Well below average
  • Poor and Awful
This with "Elite" comprising roughly the top third of the "Elite and Excellent" level (so about 5% overall) and "Awful" comprising roughly the bottom third of the "Poor and Awful" level.

So at the plate I see Swihart as average to well above average; Leon as average to above average, with potential to be well above average; and Vazquez as average to above average, also with potential to become well above average. Not a lot of difference on the whole.

Defensively? Swihart's athleticism makes him above average at some things like blocking and regular fielding, but I don't think he'll ever be more than average at game management. It just doesn't seem to be part of who he is. Matt Collins gave this pretty good breakdown of Swihart's defense during spring training last month. Swihart's range to me is a little below average to a little above average.

Leon is definitely above average or higher defensively, but just how high is hard for me to say. I'm guessing, based on what I know, that he's well above average, or thereabouts.

Vazquez? Elite. Flat out elite as a defensive catcher. Elite pitch framing, elite control of the running game, elite game management. Probably much closer to average on the rest, but overall elite.

Let's not leave out baserunning. I'm going to say well below average for Vazquez and Leon (and I wouldn't argue with a "poor" ranking for either), and average to above average for Swihart.

In the end, I see their bats as more similar than their defense, and that leads me to my Vazquez - Leon - Swihart ranking. Baserunning value gives a boost to Swihart though - he's also the only one with value as a pinch runner.

Okay then, now to make some GM decisions. For 2017, we keep Swihart in the minors, bringing him up when somebody gets injured. Give substantial playing time to both Leon and Vazquez while they're both healthy - keeping them both fresh by not overburdening either in the most taxing of positions in baseball.

In 2018, Swihart is out of options, and none of these three guys will clear waivers. So either they all stay on the major league club, or someone must be traded.

Could we really keep all three on the major league club? No. No, that won't work. One of them will be relegated to almost never catching, instead doing a little DHing and pinch hitting (and in Swihart's case, pinch running). The value of each of the three drops substantially when used this way. No, one of them must be traded.

But who? Let's consider their ages. Swihart just turned 25, Leon just turned 28. Vazquez is about midway between, turning 27 later this year. Not too far apart, but Swihart's youth will make him an asset over a longer time.

Swihart also has 5 more years of team control (including 2017) to 4 for each of Vazquez and Leon. That's a lot for all of them, and they'll all be played in their prime years, so no worries there. You might get a bit more on the back end of that with Swihart, but you'd have to sign him to a contract extension before he hits free agency to really see those extra years of benefit. None of them would be a bad choice in terms of getting a lot of good future years.

I'm committed to keeping Vazquez, so I'm going to deal either Leon or Swihart. I give an edge to Leon overall, but I am also considering that Leon is quite similar to Vazquez as a player, whereas Swihart is quite different, and as a pair, Vazquez and Swihart offer more versatility. Need a pinch runner for Vazquez late in a close game? Swihart offers an upgrade; Leon does not, and you'd have to burn another bench player because of that.

In the end, I will know more by season's end. I won't be trading any of them at the trade deadline this year; there's too much potential need for all three this season. Not before I have to, and I have to in the coming offseason. This season determines who I keep between Leon and Swihart.

But by then, the top two of these guys will likely both be worthy of being a primary catcher. Can you even keep two guys like that? Won't one become unhappy with lack of playing time?

I'd feel justified in using either Swihart or Leon as a pinch hitter and as a DH; I think both their bats will be good enough. So that could help alleviate that situation.

But wait - would there be reps at DH available, with time there being split among Hanley Ramirez, Chris Young, and Mitch Moreland? Note that we're talking about 2018 here. The Red Sox only potential significant free agent losses in the coming offseason will be Young and Moreland (sorry, Fernando Abad, for implying that you are insignificant - okay, well, I guess it's not implied anymore). It's quite likely that one of them and only one of them will be gone. So we might be able to have a platoon with four guys splitting time between catcher, DH, and first base - say giving Vazquez 70% of catching starts, Swihart 30% catching and 30% DH, Ramirez 70% DH and 25% first base, and Moreland 75% first base. Or a different version of that involving Young instead of Moreland.

Of course, it might make more sense to trade the better catcher instead of the lesser one if it's the difference between getting a significant return and an insignificant one. What will we be trying to get back? Well for one, a major-league-ready catcher with options would be nice! We'd need that depth. Who exactly will that be? Undoubtedly someone young, and the apparent value of young players will have changed much by the end of this season, so it makes no sense to decide that now. The main thing is that such a catcher would likely need to be packaged with someone else to provide equal value for Swihart or Leon. Perhaps a starting pitcher with potential to crack the rotation late in 2019, when the departures of Sale and Porcello may be imminent. Or a relief pitcher with potential to help by the start of 2019, with Kimbrel, Kelly, and Ross potentially gone by then. There's also a potential need for a new shortstop in 2020, and two new outfielders in 2021. But there's enough time to address those needs in the draft, and some may be addressed by contract extension. A need to replace pitchers is both more of a certain need, and more of a near-term need. So my focus is one AAA catcher and as many AA or AAA pitchers with high ceilings as I can get.

If Young re-signs for 2018 and Moreland does not, and Rusney Castillo continues to rake in AAA, I might bundle Castillo with Swihart or Leon to get a big-name first baseman. But if Young is gone, I keep Rusney Castillo as he might be my new Chris Young. Unless Steve Selsky is. But the need to stay under the salary cap will be over, and so Castillo will be a viable addition to the roster.

As Yoda said, "always in motion is the future". The best options for the trade targets will make themselves apparent by season's end, especially because I'll want to target youth. Dombrowski's fixation on acquiring proven major leaguers in their late 20's means that I'm the only one who'll be restocking the farm system (outside of the draft), so I'll need to target whoever has emerged as the best prospects by year's end. The future may always be in motion, but one thing we can count on is Dombrowski's neglect of the farm.

That, and Christian Vazquez's defense.