FanPost

You should be happy about the Stanton Trade

Well, we all should have known this was coming. The Yankees, coming off an unexpectedly great season, pulled the plug and went all in on 2018, trading for NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton to pair with Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and the rest of the young Yankee offense. As a Red Sox fan who was firmly aboard #TeamNoStanton, I’m thrilled by the trade, and you should be too.

First off, let’s get the obvious out of the way:this trade makes the Yankees better. That was inevitably going to happen, the Yankees have no major free agents and New York has never been afraid of throwing a boatload of money at available free agents. So, yes, Stanton makes the Yankees a better team, but I’d argue this drastically limits how good they could otherwise have been.

Lets start with Stanton himself: the dude can hit a baseball very far. That much is obvious if you’ve ever seen a highlight of the man since he first came into the league. However, is he worth almost $300 million dollars? I don’t think so. Stanton ha been in the league since 2010, and last year was only the second year of his career in which he’s had over 605 plate appearancesand played in 146 or more games. Most years, he’s in the 470-500 PA and 120 game range. That’s a sizable chunk of the season to miss, especially for that kind of paycheck. The Marlins gave him that ginormous paycheck because of the player he could become, and in 2017 that investment paid off. In 2016, it didn’t, as Stanton and his contract were put on waivers, meaning literally anybody could have signed the guy and had to give up very little to do it. Nobody did. So, is it more likely that Stanton has finally put it all together and figured out how to stay healthy over an entire season, or did he have an outlier year and the Yankees bought extremely high on the guy? Personally, I think the Yankees pulled a classic Red Sox and bought high on a guy coming off a career year.

Its not just injuries and lack of availability that made the Marlins outright give up on Stanton in 2016, it was his performance too. From 2014-2016, Stanton’s splits were /.263/.354/.580. Don’t get me wrong, those are certainly good numbers, but compare that with someone like JD Martinez. His splits during that same frame were .293/.361/.573. Over that three year sample, Martinez was the slightly better player, and acquiring him would only cost you a fraction of acquiring Stanton. But let’s look at Stanton’s career year and assume that’s the norm going forward (it won’t be, but let’s pretend). Even then, Stanton’s splits are .279/.378/.634 compared to Martinez split line of .294/.370/.672. Once again, this shows that even during a year in which Stanton hit 22 more home runs than his next closest year (he typically ends his seasons somewhere in the high 20’s for home than; last year he his 59), Martinez was still able to keep pace with the guy. If you look beyond the 800 feet homers (which, I admit, are very fun to watch) Stanton is basically a one trick pony who either hits the baseball incredibly far or not at all. This next comment might receive some flak, but he’s basically just a vastly superior Mike Napoli in that regard. Additionally, if you look at his heat chart (which I can’t link because I’m typing this on my phone), Stanton’s power comes solely from pitches on the inside corner. Throw the ball literally anywhere else, and he loses that over the fence power. Think Mookie Betts, if Mookie was completely incapable of taking an outside pitch and turning it into a double.

Looking beyond 2018, Stanton’s bloated contract might actually hinder the Yankees as soon as the 2018/2019 offseason. That offseason is going to be wild, as a hoarder of phenomenal players are set to hit the market. Among them, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, both of whom are genuinely great and both of whom have expressed serious interest in playing for the Yankees. With Stanton on the books and a hoarder of young stars needing to get paid in the immediate future, signing both players is not possible. Not even the Yankees could make that work. Heck, even signing one or the other will be difficult unless they take a drastic pay cut (they won’t). Assuming 2017 Stanton was an outlier, it’s safe to say that Machado and Harper are both better, younger players that I’d prefer to build a dynasty around, and thanks to this Stanton trade, the Yankees will definitely miss out on adding both players, and probably won’t add either.

So what should the Red Sox do going forward? While some reactionary analysis would have the Sox going out, trading the farm and overspending to acquire every big bat possible, I don’t think that’s the best plan. You can’t build your house off somebody else’s foundation, so the Red Sox should focus on how to make the best Red Sox team possible instead of trying to get into an arms race with the Yankees.

First off, get a middle of the lineup bat. The Sox needed one of these before the trade and they still need one. A lot of players had relative down years offensively, so it’s safe to assume that players like Mookie, JBJ, Bogey and a now healthy Hanley will add plenty of power, another big bat to fill the spot in the order left by Ortiz would be nice. As you could probably guess from earlier, I would love to see JD Martinez come in and fill that role. While his health is a minor worry, I think he’s a perfect fit who could fill the DH role and also play some first or outfield when required. Add Martinez, the expected improvements of the previously mentioned players, and the continued growth of the second year Devers and Benny, and that makes for a very strong offense.

That being said, this offense still isn’t strong enough to match the Yankees. That would be the case regardless of if the Yankees had acquired Stanton; there’s just too much power there to try to win every game in a shootout. So, to counter, the Sox should go all in on pitching. Fortunately, we’re in pretty good shape here. The Sox have a top five pitcher in Chris Sale, great rotation depth in Pomeranz, Price, and Eddie (who I think will thrive under Cora), and a great fifth pitcher in Porcello. If one of those players suffers an injury and spends some time on the shelf, Steven Wright, Brian Johnson or Velasquez can step in. None of those three will set the world on fire, but you could do a lot worse for your emergency options.

While I would like to see another big arm added to the bullpen (bring Reed back, please), the Sox are pretty set there too. There aren’t many closers in the game better than Kimbrel, Carson Smith showed he can be a top setup guy last year, and if Tyler Thornberg can come back, all the better (though it would be foolish to put too much stock in him). Barnes and Kelly are polarizing figures and shouldn’t be trusted with too many big spots, but if those are the guys rounding out your depth, you’re in pretty good shape.

This has been very long winded, but in short, don’t worry. Stanton does make the Yankees better, but they’re not unbeatable by any stretch. Build around your star studded core, add the power bar missing from last years lineup, and continue to add to your already stacked pitching lineup, and not only will you find yourself beating the Yankees in October, you’ll find yourself winning the first World Series since 2013, and the first non-Ortiz series since 1918