With the 2015 MLB Draft just hours away, Jim Callis says the Red Sox are a "longshot" to reach for Brady Aiken with the seventh pick of the first round, with the former first overall pick more likely to fall to the later portions of the first round.
If the Red Sox were picking late in the draft, as they have for most of the last 15 years, Aiken would be a very interesting candidate. It's unusual that talents as impressive as this fall perhaps all the way to playoff teams, making this a rare opportunity for a perennial contender to add a top-line talent like Aiken to their farm system. Aiken does not come without risk, of course, having undergone Tommy John surgery just a few months ago, but that's the price you pay in order to get a player that good that late.
At number seven, though, where the Red Sox are picking, there's still plenty of top talent to be found, making the idea of taking on that risk a lot less palatable, even if Aiken's upside is still higher than that of any of the available players. There's still a risk - reward calculation that needs to be made here, it's just that the reward is not quite so lopsided in favor of Aiken over the field as it would be if the Sox were picking, say, 20th. Our own Marc Normandin made the casefor jumping on that upside back in April.
Still, this is not the first time that the Red Sox have been connected to Aiken. A few weeks back, Keith Law mentioned the Sox might be interested in him if the medicals checked out. The Sox tend to be a team that puts a premium on top-end talent, and are willing to take a big risk in the name of acquiring a team-controlled player they would normally struggle to find. Trey Ball is a good example of that and, if his first year-plus in the system is any indication, how it can go wrong. But that's the nature of the game. Not all the gambles will pay off. But the ones that do, in theory, make up for all the rest.