2014 Red Sox community projections: Felix Doubront

For Felix Doubront, 2013 was supposed to have been something of a "make or break" year, at least with the Red Sox, but it didn't quite work out that way. His numbers, devoid of context, are not that great. A 4.32 ERA, 94 ERA+, 7.71 K/9 and 3.94 BB/9. Not awful, but not exactly the sort of season that locks up a spot on a first-division team. They might well tend more towards "break" than "make".

But then there's the context. The same context that made Doubront's 2012 season look so much better off paper than on it. Doubront was, after all, one of Boston's most reliable starters for much of the year. After a two-game hiccup at the beginning of May had fans questioning his value, Doubront rattled off an awesome stretch of 16 games allowing three-or-fewer earned runs, producing a 2.73 ERA over that period, which lasted into August.

Doubront would falter after that strong run, fading much the way he did in 2012 as the length of the season wore him down. That being said, even with his poor finish, Doubront's ERA as a starter was actually a rather more impressive 4.08, with one terrible end-of-season bullpen outing dragging him down. Based on that, I think we can probably lean back more towards "make" than "break".

The real question for Doubront, though, is whether or not he can finally last through the end of the season, and perhaps even into the postseason. Even if he doesn't, there's some good value in a pitcher who offers five good months. It's just not necessarily good enough for a team with the resources Boston has, both in terms of finances and prospects.

The good news: Felix finally showed up to camp in shape. Whether that means an added month of durability, or just a reduction in March negativity remains to be seen. But your best guesses are certainly welcome.