2013 Red Sox community projections: Mike Napoli and the false-alarm hip

Mike Napoli had a rollercoaster ride of a season. It's easy to forget given where it all ended, with the first baseman acting as one of the posterboys for the beards, clubbing huge, game-changing homers in October, but just two months earlier he had been persona non grata. Every single plate appearance seemed to bring a new level of futility with strikeout after strikeout after strikeout frustrating Red Sox fans seemingly to no end.

With the arrival of September, however, Napoli found the next gear he always seems to find as the playoffs draw near. The Red Sox didn't necessarily need his huge contributions in those last days of the season, but it's hard to imagine they'd have won it all had he not done so much against the Tigers.

Lost in all that: a hip condition which seemed so significant back before the year began. One that clearly pushed some of our projections in extreme directions.

Just look at some of those plate appearance numbers. As a group, we averaged a guess of 471 trips to the plate for a player expected to start in the middle of the order. One who eventually mustered better than 100 more. The RBI totals are similarly low, with the average prediction coming in at 83.

Amusingly, the home run numbers are actually high. I have to admit, some of us Red Sox fans got a little obsessed with Napoli's history of dominating Fenway Park. Maybe if it weren't for all those strikeouts he'd have matched or even exceeded expectations, but for all that Napoli was a big contributor for the Red Sox, his impact was not quite as incredible as some may have hoped.

This all leads to a bit of a tricky situation. You see, BleedingRed0407 has the best entry by virtue of hitting one guess perfectly and coming close on two others. But...he missed spectacularly in terms of the actual shape of Napoli's season with one of the lowest plate appearance projections in a field that trended quite low. Much closer to the full reality of Napoli's season were MaineSox, with two perfect guesses, and FizRat, with three near-misses. Taken as a whole rather than just looking at the highlights, their predictions are more impressive.

So it is Fizrat and MaineSox who take this one home. Their prize? The blessing of Mike Napoli's beard. May it shelter you and keep you warm during these cold winter nights.

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