Red Sox' Playoff Odds From Baseball Prospectus

PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus' projection system, doesn't just look at players. It also forecasts at the team level. Because of this, we can get playoff odds based on how good (or bad) PECOTA expects every player and team to be, despite the fact that not a single game has even been played in spring training yet. As Colin Wyers explains:

These odds are based on preliminary depth charts, with teams still having many roster moves to make before the season starts. Thus, they aren't etched in stone, they're etched in sand. And these are PECOTA's estimates of what would happen if the season were played thousands of times. PECOTA is not infallible, and the season is played but once. It is a prediction, not destiny.

It's all probabilities, essentially, hence the title "playoff odds." Things are a bit different this year, as Wyers has worked with PECOTA to make it include the probability of winning the one-game playoff between the two wild cards in each league. Granted, that's just kind of unnecessary extra icing on top of an already decorated and delicious cake, but it's still fun to argue over if you drink at the nerdiest bar in America.

You don't need a Baseball Prospectus subscription in order to see the playoff odds, hence my not feeling too bad about doing this:

Rnk	Team	Win	Loss	Expected Win Pct	Sim Win	Sim Loss	Div Pct	WC Pct	Playoff Pct	Playoff Pct (Adj)	WS Win Pct	1 Day Delta	7 Day Delta
1	New York Yankees	0	0	.544	88.1	73.9	47.0%	22.9%	69.9%	59.0%	9.5%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Tampa Bay Rays	0	0	.520	84.2	77.8	20.6%	23.6%	44.2%	32.4%	3.8%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Boston Red Sox	0	0	.516	83.6	78.4	17.3%	22.0%	39.4%	28.3%	3.2%	0.0%	0.0%
4	Toronto Blue Jays	0	0	.511	82.7	79.3	13.6%	19.7%	33.3%	23.3%	2.4%	0.0%	0.0%
5	Baltimore Orioles	0	0	.461	74.8	87.2	1.5%	3.3%	4.8%	2.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

The current playoff odds, based on preliminary depth charts -- i.e. the ones that say Felix Doubront stinks and Jonny Gomes is playing constantly -- give the Red Sox a nearly 40 percent chance of postseason baseball. Their best chance seems to be through one of the two wild cards, as the Yankees have the fourth-highest playoff odds among all 30 clubs.

These will update throughout the year, even before the season starts as the depth charts start to inch towards their eventual Opening Day iteration. This isn't a bad start, though, with the Sox on par with the rest of the expected AL East competition, and even ahead of the off-season's winner in Toronto.