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Most important series of the year to date.
Series Notes
- One month ago, the Red Sox were in first place in the AL East, a half game up on the Yankees and ten up on the non-existent Tampa Rays. Today with fourteen games remaining in the season for each team, the Yankees hold a four game edge over Boston while the Red Sox enjoy the same lead over Tampa.
- Today marks the start of a four game series with the Rays. The series is, in very real terms, a (second) chance for the Red Sox to send the Rays back from whence they came, back to play-off irrelevance. Win just two of the games and Tampa will be forced to make up four games in ten days.
- One of the reasons why it will be very difficult for Tampa to ultimately win the Wild Card even if the win three or four games in this series is seven of the Rays final ten games of the season come against the Yankees. Four of those seven are on the road in New York. The Red Sox, meanwhile, play those same seven games against Baltimore, four of which are at home in Boston.
- A realistic scenario: if the Sox win two of these four against Tampa, then can win six of their final ten remaining games (seven of which come against Baltimore), the Rays will have to go 10-0 just to tie them.
- You are jealous of Joe Maddon's glasses.
- So am I.
- By fWAR, the Red Sox have had a more productive pitching staff than the Rays this season. The Sox have accumulated 18 fWAR to the Rays 14.3. It's close, certainly, but the Sox have an edge in total productivity. But, if you separate out starters and relievers, you can quickly see the Rays rotation has been better than Boston's. 14.2 of the Rays fWAR comes from their starters or about 99%, whereas the Red Sox get 11.8 from their starters. The point: the Rays don't have the deep and dominant bullpen they did last season. Their strength comes from their starting pitching. If the Red Sox are able to be patient, they could drive up the Rays starters pitch count, and get into a bullpen which will give up some runs.
- That's easier said than done. The Rays lead the AL in complete games with fifteen. The Red Sox, for some perspective, have two. but some patience will go a long way in this series.
- Before the last few games, Dustin Pedroia had been in a bit of a slump. Facing Brandon Morrow is effectively anti-slump potion. The Red Sox are 5-9 versus Tampa this season and have been outscored 72-43 in the process so it's not like they've been unlucky. Part of the reason for that is the Red Sox have hit .177/.267/.342 against Rays pitching so far this season. The Rays have hit a far more respectable .244/.315/.390 against Boston pitching.
Individual game notes after the jump!
- This game may represent one of the Red Sox best chances to beat Tampa. Hellickson has been less than dominant in his last three starts (only 3 Ks in his last 15 innings pitched). After throwing 154 innings last season, his current total is 170. He may be hitting the rookie wall.
- Kyle Weiland has been an adventure. He hasn't been striking players out but he's been making up for that by walking everyone and their mother. His minor league stats indicate someone who can get strikeouts (8.4 K/9 in 25 starts for AA Portland last year and 8.8 K/9 in 24 starts for AAA Pawtucket this year). His K rate in 16 major league innings is 2.8 K/9. Yes, it's only 16 innings, but it's a major reason those 16 innings have not been good ones. If he's going to be productive at the major league level he's going to have to throw/generate more strikes. The Red Sox of course know this and want Weiland to throw more strikes. Whether or not he can do so without getting pounded will be the deciding factor in how successful he is at the major league level both tonight and in his career.
- This will be Josh Beckett's first start since leaving the mound after throwing 3.2 innings against Toronto on September 5th. Presumably his injured ankle, the injury that caused him to leave the game and miss a start, has healed. Beckett has thrown 173.2 innings this season so a short rest before the stretch run isn't a terrible thing.
- James Shields probably is just outside the Cy Young discussion this season, but he's had a great year either way. He leads the AL in complete games with 11 (Boston as a team had two). It isn't like he's been slowing down, either. He's thrown 25.1 innings over his last three starts with a 0.71 ERA during that time. He has a 2.87 ERA versus Boston this season with two complete games.
- Jeff Neimann's last three starts have yielded a 7.27 ERA. Also, he's really tall. My google is broken.
- Lester's ERA over his last three starts is 2.81, but his last start against Toronto was a Matsuzaka-esque nightmare of walks, full counts and more foul balls than you can legally shake an infant at.
- David Price scares me more than just about any other pitcher in baseball. Price has one of the best fastballs in baseball, not only because he throws it at Daniel Bard speed, but because he can spot it all around the strike zone.
- As you may have heard, Tim Wakefield finally won his 200th game. It was a statement on a terrific and unlikely career, but the game itself was more a testament to run support than great pitching. The Red Sox scored 18 runs for Wakefield turning a close game into a laugher by the end. Wakefield has allowed three or fewer runs four time over his last twelve starts. For the Sox to win this one they're going to have to get the bats going.