After an exciting weekend series against the Yankees, the Red Sox have a game and a half lead in the AL East heading into the home stretch. With the Yankees seven games up in the wild card race, it appears both teams have an excellent shot at the playoffs. Baseball Prospectus has the Red Sox playoff odds at a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs and the Yankees at a 99.3% chance. While Red Sox manager, Terry Francona, has downplayed the importance of winning the division, beating the Yankees for the AL East title would be a sweet ending to an excellent regular season. With that in mind, I took a look at the remaining schedule for both teams to see who has the easier path ahead.
Using the Fangraph’s power rankings, I calculated the average of both team’s remaining opponent’s WAR-based winning percentage. Using the fangraph’s data should give us a better sense of each team’s true talent then simple winning percentage or Pythagorean record, as the WAR based system focuses on performance and not just results. The results are not great for the Red Sox. They have the tougher schedule ahead of them with an average opponent’s WP% of .520, significantly higher than the Yankee’s opponent’s .509.
The biggest difference between the two teams is the remaining opponent’s in the AL West.
The Red Sox record against
If the Sox are going to capture their first AL East title since 2007, they will have play better than the Yankees head to head, and against slightly better competition, just as they have done all year.