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It's that time of year again, when we look back at our pre-season projections and think about just how crazy we were back in January, February, and March--back when everything looked so damn promising.
We'll start with the curious case of Adrian Gonzalez. By far the most exciting offensive force in the lineup before the year began, the new acquisition by all obejctive measurements had a terrific year. Strong defense and a top-5 bat at the position led to 6.6 WAR. It's hard to scoff at that.
And yet...there was something a bit off about it all. For whatever reason, at least to me and a good few others, Gonzalez' season just didn't seem to bring the sort of impact the numbers suggest. Maybe it was because of the power outages which left Gonzo with just 27 homers, mostly bunched together. Or, more likely, it was because we all had such incredibly high expectations.
Are you ready for the most massive of community projections tables ever? Click through to see how you (and the rest here at OTM) did.
Name | PA | RBI | HR | AVG | OBP | SLG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BoldandBrash | 690 | 115 | 39 | .301 | .402 | .565 |
Marisa Ingemi | 700 | 119 | 35 | .285 | .387 | .602 |
Jason A | 675 | 129 | 43 | .308 | .397 | .580 |
Lloyd Christmas | 720 | 110 | 40 | .306 | .395 | .575 |
ThePanda | 660 | 120 | 37 | .310 | .411 | .590 |
Steve Boyle | 690 | 110 | 37 | .280 | .374 | .550 |
Sawxinpa | 678 | 125 | 48 | .297 | .410 | .590 |
Ben Buchanan | 700 | 115 | 40 | .300 | .420 | .600 |
Gnick55 | 660 | 120 | 38 | .305 | .412 | .570 |
TheLoneDavid | 660 | 120 | 38 | .305 | .412 | .570 |
RSNexile | 690 | 120 | 43 | .310 | .405 | .570 |
Tarrsk | 660 | 125 | 42 | .295 | .378 | .575 |
Roredd87 | 642 | 136 | 44 | .314 | .392 | .615 |
Sologub | 625 | 128 | 43 | .298 | .400 | .570 |
Justin_Bobo | 685 | 112 | 36 | .296 | .395 | .560 |
Nuthinboutnuthin | 668 | 128 | 48 | .302 | .380 | .630 |
Kraken613 | 668 | 135 | 45 | .299 | .390 | .610 |
Sean O | 650 | 115 | 30 | .275 | .355 | .525 |
Totheights | 680 | 120 | 42 | .302 | .388 | .603 |
tommy.otm | 680 | 140 | 37 | .325 | .400 | .615 |
BobZupcic | 675 | 116 | 40 | .285 | .366 | .590 |
Gizmosandy | 665 | 124 | 39 | .293 | .400 | .590 |
Pedro Werneck | 640 | 117 | 37 | .296 | .395 | .577 |
B_Edelman | 673 | 121 | 39 | .304 | .389 | .573 |
Rogue Nine | 675 | 132 | 51 | .292 | .417 | .640 |
Redsoxmike | 632 | 119 | 41 | .301 | .394 | .555 |
OzTiger | 695 | 130 | 52 | .305 | .415 | .640 |
Flasoxfan | 695 | 134 | 46 | .316 | .398 | .639 |
Smooth Criminal | 713 | 114 | 38 | .295 | .396 | .589 |
Dsharp | 640 | 128 | 43 | .302 | .402 | .609 |
Andyfeeney | 693 | 109 | 44 | .289 | .400 | .577 |
HeyYoCraig | 657 | 111 | 38 | .296 | .405 | .534 |
MagicBoSox | 700 | 119 | 46 | .311 | .400 | .625 |
SuperDaveyBoy | 675 | 121 | 37 | .303 | .392 | .570 |
bdo3272 | 684 | 131 | 47 | .306 | .392 | .633 |
Frederick0220 | 700 | 137 | 52 | .310 | .410 | .650 |
Robertstolesecond | 704 | 128 | 37 | .315 | .432 | .604 |
Brogshan | 698 | 116 | 41 | .297 | .394 | .561 |
Birdhouse | 694 | 131 | 43 | .304 | .429 | .641 |
TheGreatMon | 677 | 109 | 37 | .291 | .410 | .565 |
Bheebs | 662 | 104 | 39 | .298 | .433 | .644 |
Koopz42 | 675 | 120 | 38 | .304 | .420 | .670 |
Boomtown87 | 688 | 112 | 37 | .311 | .421 | .619 |
CAMOJOE | 692 | 120 | 34 | .323 | .424 | .623 |
Pi1166 | 712 | 138 | 46 | .321 | .428 | .628 |
Schulz | 680 | 126 | 42 | .297 | .399 | .595 |
Old Fan | 676 | 107 | 36 | .298 | .390 | .560 |
Kgtruth345 | 686 | 131 | 45 | .307 | .399 | .600 |
Dave D | 603 | 132 | 42 | .313 | .409 | .619 |
The Burning Scheyer Jersey | 665 | 103 | 35 | .292 | .397 | .520 |
Dustin's #11 Fan | 675 | 121 | 39 | .285 | .360 | .510 |
Redsox604 | 684 | 111 | 42 | .296 | .420 | .597 |
Synecdoche | 696 | 121 | 45 | .284 | .394 | .598 |
Mick Lowe | 655 | 110 | 32 | .302 | .400 | .543 |
Maineac | 640 | 111 | 39 | .291 | .379 | .532 |
drabidea | 600 | 117 | 36 | .289 | .397 | .535 |
Wolf9309 | 660 | 123 | 42 | .310 | .390 | .595 |
The Laser Show | 690 | 130 | 40 | .290 | .390 | .570 |
NJ Native | 645 | 117 | 44 | .314 | .421 | .572 |
Mattsullivan | 637 | 117 | 36 | .315 | .402 | .535 |
AlohaSox | 680 | 125 | 45 | .310 | .420 | .560 |
Buccaz | 651 | 127 | 41 | .285 | .389 | .540 |
Travben85 | 665 | 120 | 41 | .287 | .394 | .543 |
Conor Duffy | 645 | 113 | 37 | .294 | .386 | .535 |
Zachary Kolodin | 710 | 117 | 38 | .319 | .421 | .584 |
Dr. Dunkenstein | 713 | 131 | 44 | .307 | .399 | .597 |
Remembering9ergods | 610 | 150 | 47 | .323 | .418 | .570 |
mmmmm | 676 | 140 | 41 | .310 | .408 | .592 |
QW | 671 | 131 | 47 | .302 | .399 | .587 |
Zagz | 672 | 129 | 44 | .288 | .413 | .618 |
Ganset | 652 | 106 | 38 | .308 | .390 | .605 |
Lord Duggan | 650 | 125 | 43 | .290 | .385 | .590 |
Alfredo | 620 | 115 | 37 | .268 | .360 | .558 |
Theartolater | 650 | 120 | 35 | .290 | .415 | .540 |
A-N-G-I-S | 645 | 123 | 41 | .303 | .403 | .597 |
Westcoastredsox | 650 | 128 | 45 | .315 | .405 | .569 |
jgonzales19 | 699 | 125 | 42 | .303 | .401 | .565 |
Average | 671 | 122 | 41 | .301 | .400 | .585 |
Nobody expected Gonzo to hit for average as well as he did, nor did they expect so few to leave the park. Only the miserly Sean O came close on his long ball total, and only a couple predictions came close on slugging.
All-in-all, I think it's those power numbers which really leave the disconnect between the general feeling around Gonzo's season and the reality. As much as we recognize that homers are hardly the only important part of the game, they still carry some major psychological weight, and while Gonzo exceeded our expectations in the average and OBP department, sometimes you just need the emotional punch the big flies pack.
It's hard to declare a winner since the best entries only have two, and none of those are exact hits. So if you have either two near-misses or one right on the dot, then consider yourself to be in that group.
(If I've missed something--which seems entirely likely given the sheer number here--let me know in the comments and I'll fix it.)