Now that all experts have given their prospects and system ranking (except our regretted USG), I thought it would be appropriate to sum up all those rankings in terms of prospects and the whole system. But before I start this, let's see what has been the front office blueprint in the draft and on the International Free Agents market and how that's impacted the talent pool in the minors:
After years of drafting polished, fast-to-the-big-leagues-type players (Pedroia, Lowrie, Ellsbury, Papelbon...), there was a shift to focus on higher impact younger players (by not hesitating to go over-slot as it was the case for Kelly, Westmoreland, Renfroe and Lars or large signing bonuses as it was the case for Almanzar and Iglesias) that left a void in the upper levels of the minors and depth in lower levels. Here's what Theo and Hazen has to say:
"I think the clear strength of our farm system is in a group of very high-ceiling players that we feel great about, most of whom are 18-20 years old,’’ said general manager Theo Epstein. "How we as an organization can impact those players and help them with their development and reach their ceilings will be a hugely important factor in our success starting in probably about 2012 and beyond.’’
"That’s where the biggest gap is right now, at Triple A,’’ said director of player development Mike Hazen. "Hopefully over the course of next year that’s going to change, but right now there aren’t enough ready players, and that’s obviously our big challenge and our problem right now, that there’s not enough major league-ready-now players sitting [there] to take positions at the major league level.’’
So basically, the ranking of the system will be impacted by: How talented those blue chips are and how deep the talent pool is? After the jump, we'll see what the experts think.
Let's start by viewing the Red Sox top prospects lists, the only ones missing here is Baseball-Intellect.com (they didn't reach the Red Sox list yet) and Project Prospect (they don't do team by team lists):
John Sickels |
Baseball America |
Baseball Prospectus |
Hardball Times |
1. R. Westmoreland 2. Casey Kelly 3. Ryan Kalish 4. Josh Reddick 5. Michael Bowden 6. Junichi Tazawa 7. Anthony Rizzo 8. Lars Anderson 9. R. Fuentes 10. S. Pimentel 11. Jose Iglesias 12. Derrick Gibson 13. Luis Exposito 14. David Renfroe 15. Alex Wilson 16. Roman Mendez 17. Peter Hissey 18. Y. Navarro 19. M. Younginer 20. Stephen Fife |
1. R. Westmoreland 2. Casey Kelly 3. Josh Reddick 4. Lars Anderson 5. Ryan Kalish 6. Junichi Tazawa 7. Reymond Fuentes 8. Anthony Rizzo 9. Jose Iglesias 10. Derrick Gibson |
1. Ryan Westmoreland 2. Casey Kelly 3. Josh Reddick 4. Ryan Kalish 5. Anthony Rizzo 6. Jose Iglesias 7. Junichi Tazawa 8. Michael Bowden 9. Lars Anderson 10. Reymond Fuentes 11. Derrick Gibson |
1. Lars Anderson 2. Casey Kelly 3. R. Westmoreland 4. Michael Bowden 5. Stolmey Pimentel 6. Ryan Kalish 7. Junichi Tazawa 8. Josh Reddick 9. Reymond Fuentes 10. M. Almanzar |
Keith Law's Top 10 Red Sox Prospects: 1. Kelly 2. Westmoreland 3. Rizzo 4. Anderson 5. Kalish 6. Iglesias 7. Tazawa 8.Gibson 9. Pimentel 10.Fuentes
The rest of the lists is here:
Fangraphs |
TopProspectAlert.com |
Diamond Futures |
Roto Experts |
1. Casey Kelly 2. R.Westmoreland 3. Junichi Tazawa 4. Josh Reddick 5. Lars Anderson 6. S. Pimentel 7. Anthony Rizzo 8. Derrick Gibson 9. Ryan Kalish 10. M. Bowden |
1. R. Westmoreland 2. Casey Kelly 3. Junichi Tazawa 4. Lars Anderson 5. Josh Reddick 6. M. Bowden 7. Anthony Rizzo 8. Luis Exposit 9. Reymond Fuentes 10. Daniel Bard (WTF?) |
1. Ryan Westmoreland 2. Casey Kelly 3. Ryan Kalish 4. Lars Anderson 5. Derrick Gibson 6. Jose Iglesias 7. Josh Reddick 8. Junichi Tazawa 9. Anthony Rizzo 10. Reymond Fuentes 11. Michael Bowden 12. Jose Vinicio 13. Che-Hsuan Lin 14. David Renfroe 15. S. Pimentel |
1. Ryan Kalish 2. Junichi Tazawa 3. Michael Bowden 4. Josh Reddick 5. Anthony Rizzo 6. Lars Anderson 7. R. Westmoreland 8. Jose Iglesias 9. Casey Kelly 10. R. Fuentes |
As you see most of the lists, like the one we have here at OTM, are topped by prospects in the lower levels which confirms what Hazen and Epstein are saying. Here's where those prospects ranks in different Top 100 prospects lists:
Baseball America |
Keith Law |
Baseball Prospetus |
Frankie Piliere |
Project Prospect |
|
R.Westmoreland Casey Kelly Lars Anderson Josh Reddick Ryan Kalish Anthony Rizzo Jose Iglesias Junichi Tazawa |
21 24 87 75 NR NR NR NR |
32 18 56 NR 86 53 91 98 |
13 29 NR 57 76 NR NR NR |
39 24 65 NR 95 NR NR NR |
27 35 NR 76 80 84 38 96 |
Except for Tazawa and Reddick, none of the top prospects will start the season in AAA but we can also see that the system is pretty deep with 4 to 7 prospects ranking in the Top 100 lists (those lists are generally filled with prospects who have a legitimate shot at their team 25 roster or are already in the big club).
Finally here, where different review/experts rank the Red Sox system:
Keith Law ranks the Farm System as the 2nd in MLB.
Kevin Goldstein hasn't done the ranking yet, but here's what he has to say in his article Red Sox are the best Farmers
Sure, they have the ability to spend freely in the free agent market but, at the same time, they've had the most successful player procurement system of the last decade, and it comes down to focusing on aggression, intelligence and, at times, sheer volume...
...However, with 50 rounds each year, it's the draft that provides most of the talent to any team's player development system, and no team takes advantage of their picks more than Boston..
Baseball America ranks the farm in the 6-15 range writing that "System is very young, but SS/RHP Casey Kelly, OF Ryan Westmoreland could be special."
Frankie Piliere ranks us 11th overall saying that: "Boston's low-level talent is as impressive as anyone's, with players like Ryan Westmoreland, Reymond Fuentes and Roman Mendez highlighting the list of the organization's top minor-leaguers. The Red Sox also boast some nice advanced talent in the likes of Josh Reddick and Ryan Kalish."
Diamond Futures ranks the Sox System as the 3rd best in MLB. Here's what they say about the general team process:
They do it all: Make the right trades, sign the right free agents, hit the Latin American and Pacific Rim markets hard, draft quality players—and develop them right. It must be a joy to be a Red Sox fan these days. Their Minor League system is filled with players that tend to be highly athletic—yet have proven production.
Yeah, it's a joy to be Red Sox fan those days :)