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Best Outfield Arms: let's talk sabermetrics!

By SoxDevil

John Walsh at the Hardball Times has released his 3rd annual "Best outfield arms" report. I highly suggest reading the entire thing here.

First, a primer from John Walsh:

Using play-by-play data, I consider five different situations when a throw from the outfield is important:

  1. Single with runner on first base (second base unoccupied).
  2. Double with runner on first base.
  3. Single with runner on second base.
  4. Fly out with runner on third base, fewer than two outs.
  5. Fly out with runner on second base, fewer than two outs (third base unoccupied).

For those plays, I add up how often the runner is thrown out (kill) or how often the runner is "held," i.e. prevented from taking an extra base (hold). A comparison with league average allows me to rate the outfielder's arm.

With that in mind, here are the studs from '07 across all 3 outfield positions as sorted by Runs/200. What's most surprising to me is Soriano's outstanding numbers from left field.

MLB leaders
Player Position Opps Kill+ Hold+ Runs Runs/200
Soriano, Alfonso LF 152 266 108 12.9 17.0
Cuddyer, Mike RF 164 245 110 12.0 14.6
Francoeur, Jeff RF 177 241 112 11.9 13.4
Victorino, Shane RF 135 170 128 8.2 12.2
Young, Delmon RF 171 168 121 9.2 10.8
Upton, B.J. CF 108 224 101 4.6 8.5
Taveras, Willy CF 99 240 102 3.0 6.1
Rios, Alexis RF 160 124 112 4.5 5.6
Edmonds, Jim CF 125 166 111 3.5 5.6
Teahen, Mark RF 183 172 95 4.8 5.3
Suzuki, Ichiro CF 199 143 116 5.2 5.2
Freel, Ryan CF 81 120 104 2.0 5.0
Cabrera, Melky CF 185 207 99 4.2 4.5
Monroe, Craig LF 103 154 106 2.2 4.3

How do our beloved Red Sox stack up? Not very well, to be quite honest.

Boston Red Sox
Player Position Opps Kill+ Hold+ Runs Runs/200
Crisp, Coco CF 148 24 105 -0.1 -0.2
Ramirez, Manny LF 129 110 90 -0.9 -1.5
Nixon, Trot (former) RF 82 127 101 -1.1 -2.6
Drew, J.D. RF 114 73 94 -1.8 -3.1

Many thanks to John Walsh for compiling and posting this fantastic report. Again, you can read the entire article here.

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