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20080813andrusfeliz

zywica

Mar 22, 2008 Dec 02, 2008 534 10640

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Tuesday a.m.

Not a whole lot this morning. Jeff Wilson takes his look at Mike Maddux, including this from Nolan Ryan:

Ryan said Maddux is the right fit for the Rangers because he has a knack for feeling out a pitcher’s personality and finding the right route to help him realize his potential..."I like a pitching coach who relates well to his pitchers and understands that each one of them is different," Ryan said. "Dealing with 12 different individuals, you have to try to get them to rise to the occasion and try to get consistency out of them."

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Giants sign Jeremy Affeldt

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&hl=252086&id=3422

The San Jose Mercury News reports that the Giants have signed free agent Jeremy Affeldt to a two-year deal.
No word on terms yet, but if Affeldt is signing this early, it must mean the Giants offered him close to $5 million per year. Affeldt deserved better than a one-year, $3 million contract when he was a free agent last winter, but he held out for three years initially and watched as teams inked other lefties to deals. He entered this winter looking like a better investment than most of the other southpaws available.

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Cowboys aftermath

PHEW!

With six games to play:

NFC East (all but clinched): NY Giants 9-1

NFC West (all but clinched): Arizona 7-3

Carolina leads the South at 8-2, and one of the three North teams will win their division, which means that you should be in pretty good shape with respect to those teams. Aside from that, the WC standings:

Tampa Bay 7-3
Dallas 6-4
Washington 6-4
Atlanta 6-4
Philadelphia 5-4-1
GB, Minn, Chi, NO 5-5

First of all, you have the H2H tiebreaker with the one team ahead of you, which is great. You also have the H2H against GB, so the only two teams you figure to face up against here, you at least do have that first tiebreaker.

In the division, Dallas is now tied with Washington. Tiebreakers with Philly are almost sure to not matter now with their tie.

Conference records:

Washington 5-3
Atlanta 4-3
Dallas 4-4
NO 2-4
Chicago 4-4
Minnesota 4-3

Remaining games:

Dallas: SF, Sea, at Pit, NYG, Bal, at Phi
TB: at Det, NO, at Car, at Atl, SD, Oak
Washington: at Sea, NYG, at Bal, at Cin, Phi, at SF
Atlanta: Car, at SD, at NO, TB, at Min, SL
Philly: at Bal, Ari, AT NYG, Cle, at Wash, Dal

First off, I think that we need to see Carolina beat TB and Atlanta, since they're two up on us to begin with and probably aren't going to get caught by us and still make the playoffs.

Second, if Baltimore can win at home against the Skins and Eagles and lose to us on the road, that would be great.

Third, unfortunately, we're the only ones who still have to play a top AFC team unless the Chargers suddenly find it. And we have to play them on the road.

Fourth, the Giants play all of the NFCE still. Hopefully we won't lose a game there to either of our rivals. Too bad none of the OOD teams have to play them still.

It's still no slam dunk at ten wins, as the Bucs stand a good chance of going 4-2 themselves and staying ahead of us for that last spot. But at least we're back in the middle of it.

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Cowboys game/NFL thread

The day isn't going too badly for Dallas. IIt would be a nice bonus to see the Bengals somehow pull something out against Philly in OT. But if Dallas wins tonight, the entire NFCN would be behind them now. Philly would either be even or a game back with a game left with them, and Washington would be even with them. TB would be a game up on them, but they are one team with whom they have a tiebreaker. Atlanta's loss would put them even with them.

So... this is pretty much the season tonight, much like the Bucs game was. If they win they can probably afford to go 4-2 down the stretch, which is very doable. A loss to Washington would mean that only a subsequent crater by them would likely allow Dallas to feel comfortable even going 5-1 against the tough schedule.

 

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Friday morning stuff

TR Sullivan has two pieces out there, one saying the Rangers are making the bullpen a priority for the offseason. I do think that, in the big picture, the team should make dominant late relief central to its plan to make and compete in the playoffs, because we've seen that you can have excellent pens in Arlington, while we haven't seen demonstrated that you can have an excellent rotation. If the club can build an upper half rotation to go with a great pen, improved defense, and a top offense, it might have a formula for success that it can actually achieve. However, the way they're looking to "bolster" their pen does concern me. The last time Daniels looked to add an established late reliever, he made the worst deal of his career. And I don't think that there are great options in free agency or that signing second tier free agent relievers is a good way to achieve what I'm describing.

Sullivan's other article centers around the start of free agency today and Milton Bradley's probable departure. Daniels says the club is going to bargain shop:

"We all know the names that are out there, but I don't see us as strong suitors for one of the top guys," Daniels said. "I'm not saying we're going to stay out of the free-agent market entirely, but I don't see us dealing at the top of the market."

A few of the names that might fall into the Rangers' price range are right-handers Brad Penny and Jon Garland and left-hander Oliver Perez. The Rangers also might bring Jennings back on a Minor League contract.

The Star-Telegram has its own list of possible free agent targets for the Rangers. This one includes Ben Sheets and Brian Fuentes.

In case you missed it, Josh Hamilton did win a Silver Slugger award.

 

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Normandin on the AL West

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8305

What Do They Need? Losing Milton Bradley hurts, but they should still have one of the best lineups in the game even without him; if Nelson Cruz finally turns into a major league-caliber hitter, then they are all set on the offensive side of things. They need players who can field, but most of the top free-agent position players are not known for their gloves, just their bats. The changes will have to come in the rotation, where Vicente Padilla (5.76 ERA, 1.7 SNLVAR in 2008) may be their best current option. To help on that front, Eric Hurley should be back for the start of the season, and they hope Kason Gabbard's elbow injuries are a thing of the past. But even with those two around, they need more pitching; they're just stopgaps right now, not answers, which means GM Jon Daniels has work to do.

What Do They Have? Though Bradley is a free agent, this is still a lineup that can smack the ball around: David Murphy and Cruz are two solid options for the corners, especially with superstar Josh Hamilton in center. Michael Young and Ian Kinsler make up one of the better offensive middle infields in the game. Chris Davis showed promise during his first year in the majors, and will man first base. Hank Blalock was moved off of third permanently, but helps to fix the lineup's one glaring issue, the DH spot. Marlon Byrd is a useful supporting piece in the outfield, especially if Cruz slips up or develops slowly. They also have four catchers and/or catching prospects capable of starting on most teams. On the pitching side of things, the Rangers have nothing. They had the worst rotation in the majors last year—they were nearly 25 full wins behind the first-place Blue Jays in the SNLVAR rankings, and there were 51 starting pitchers who individually produced more than the entire Ranger rotation. The bullpen is in much better shape, with Frank Francisco and C.J. Wilson, but they do not have the depth to make up for the rotation's inadequacies.

What Are They Likely To Do? The Rangers have already publicly commented on the fact that they think long-term, expensive contracts to pitchers are the worst risk in baseball, and something they will not invest in. That means they are going to miss out on the high-profile starting pitchers who can pick up both dollars and years, and instead focus on veterans on their way out (such as Kenny Rogers, a former Ranger) or retreads trying to come back from injury or ineffectiveness (Jason Jennings, Mark Mulder, or Bartolo Colon, perhaps?). If they decide against any of those options, they are going to once again try to go at it with in-house solutions, with familiar results.

What Should They Do? They play in one of the most hitter-friendly venues in existence, but that does not mean they should skimp on starting pitching entirely. Yes, long-term contracts with lots of dollar signs are risky, but the Rangers are not going to go anywhere if they fail to take risks. They should give lots of money to the right starting pitcher, in order to balance reward versus risk properly, and give themselves a fighting chance in the division. A.J. Burnett strikes out hitters and keeps the ball on the ground more often than in the air, and he does not walk a ton of hitters; that's the kind of guy they need to anchor their staff, not some pitcher who, along with Kevin Millwood, would make this staff look great if it were 1999.

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BA's Rangers draft report card

Poorly formatted as it is...

Callis:

Though they cost a combined $5.075 million, getting Justin Smoak at No. 11 and Ross at No. 57 were big scores by the Rangers. Texas also got several other polished hitters and promising arms, adding depth to what may be baseball's best farm system.

 

12 comments | 2 recs

Goldstein on Borbon's defense

XXX (YYY): Julio Borbon's defense -- gold glove caliber? Enough above-average to carry what will probably be a sub-par (even for a CF'er) bat? Overrated? Average?

Kevin Goldstein: Gold Glove is pushing it. He's a good in center for sure, but not elite. Also, his arm is pretty weak. He has a weird set of skills. Can hit, can run, but doesn't have a leadoff man approach

Well, this is more in line with my impression than Aaron Fitt's take.

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OT: Mavs - Irwin, et al

I'm tired of dealing with the 460 post thread, and though part of me is still worn out on all of the genius theories gone awry, and since you guys called me out in conjunction with Adam, and since Chase said that he's got some spare time, how about a reset of your stance?

You're of the opinion that the Mavs are going to be able to take advantage of Kidd's $20 million expiring contract, is that correct?

 

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International signing rundown

One more summary of the Rangers' international efforts - and probably the most comprehensive one so far - comes from Baseball America's Ben Badler, as he reviewed the ALWest (and Michael Inoa).

Badler profiles the seven teenagers on whom the Rangers spent at least $100,000. I think that my favorite is still Edwin Escobar:

Escobar is a 6-foot-2 lefthander with an 86-90 mph fastball that has touched 92 mph. A relative of Angels righthander Kelvin Escobar and Brewers shortstop Alcides Esocbar, Edwin saw some time at the Rangers' instructional league this year and showed feel for the breaking ball. His body is more mature than most Latin American pitchers his age, and he needs to continue to work on his changeup.

 

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