I had this thought last night, but couldn't quite articulate it:  Andy Pettitte lied, cheated, and got caught.  The Yankees stood by him.

Last November, when Pettitte said he needed more time to decide if he wanted to return, and declined his player option, the Yankees waited on him.

When he decided to return, the Yankees paid him the same $16 million he had already turned down.  When that decision turned out to be fueled by Pettitte's implication in the Mitchell Report, nobody in the Yankee brass blinked.  I didn't read a single leaked comment from anonymous officials complaining about Pettitte's bloated contract.

During the season, Andy said all the right things about being a Yankee, about playing in the Stadium, about not wanting to ever play any place else again.

So if he wants to keep playing, it should be as a Yankee.  If he feels that $10M isn't enough "motivation" to return to the Bronx, he can go hang 'em up.  If he going back to Houston to be with his family, I'll completely understand.

But I cheered this cheater when he ran on and off the field, because he'd said all the right things and all that nostalgia was there.   And I'll feel insulted if he signs someplace else.

Pitcher A has been offered arbitration (and would cost the Yanks a draft pick), but Pitcher B has not.

Pitcher A figures to make around $15M, but Pitcher B is likely available for around $10M.

I'd fill the back end of the rotation with Braden Looper before Derek Lowe.

An article by Tyler Kepner in the Times got me thinking about Robinson Cano.

Canó also made an important mechanical adjustment, scrapping the open stance he had lapsed into and reducing the movement before his swing. Long said he knew the swing would be in order when he visited Canó for six days during the week of Nov. 9, but he had no idea Canó would be in such good shape.

“He’s got a personal trainer, and he’s probably down to 10 or 11 percent body fat,” Long said. “This kid is focused, he’s determined. I’ve never seen him like this."

How important is Cano to the Yankees' lineup and to their position in the standings?

Last season, Cano batted .271/.305/.410.  If he had matched his best season instead, what would the Yanks' season have really looked like?

While Cano hit an eye-popping .342/.365/.525 in 2006, I don't think of that as his best season because those stellar numbers depended on him swinging at everything and being lucky enough to have every liner find a gap.  I think 2007 was Cano's more impressive season because in hitting .306/.353/.488 he doubles his number of walks and he put nearly 50 points of separation between his batting average and his OBP.  OBP+ thinks the two seasons were comparable, too; 2006 registered 126, while 2007 clocked in at 120. 

So, if Cano had managed to keep his OBP in the .350s rather than the .300s, could it have saved the Yankees' season?

Perhaps.  In a 600 AB season, a hitter with a .300 OBP reaches base 180 times while a .350 OBP reaches base 210 times.  So, if Cano's success had brought a more talented hitter to the plate I'd think sure it could matter.  But Cano spent most of the season batting in front of the likes of Wilson Betemit and Melky Cabrera.  Not a lot of fear there.  It doesn't seem to me that moving the lineup an extra batter 30 times (even if for the whole game) could produce a drastic change in the outcome of the season.

But when I look at the advanced metrics like WARP3 (Wins Above Replacement Player), that is just what it suggests.  Robbie's offense and defense were worth 6.5 wins last, when they had been 10.9 wins in 2007.  4 wins would have moved the Yankees to 93 wins, 2 behind Boston.  Since the Yanks pretty much packed it in after they were eliminated, it's not a stretch to imagine picking up an extra win along the way.

Cano figures to be even more important in 2009.  I think any talk of Cano batting 3rd is just posturing, and while I could see him hitting 5th or 6th, I expect Robinson to bat 7th or 8th until he proves himself again.

Damon- Jeter- Matsui- Arod- Posada- Swisher- Nady- Cano- Gardner

Damon- Jeter- Matsui- Arod- Posada- Swisher- Cano- Nady- Melky

Via MLBTR, Phil Rogers speculates that failing to sign any of CC, AJ, or Lowe could bring chaos to the Bronx.  It's a panicky sentiment I've seen brought up on several different blog.

While that's easy way to view things, I don't think this "worst case scenario" is really the worst thing that could happen.

The Yankees received just under 900IP from the starters this season.

We lock Joba and Wang into the rotation.  They contributed 200 innings in 2008, and ideally Wang will be back to 200 IP in 2009, while Joba pushes toward 150IP.

Bringing Pettitte back becomes a priority.  He topped 200 innings for the 4 straight season while dealing with a sore elbow.  So pencil him in for 30 starts and 180 IP.

So our horses have us to 530 of 900 IP.

Then there are the second (or third?) tier of pitchers in this free agent class.

Jon Garland had a terrible year and posted a 1.51 WHIP.  But he pitched 196.2 innings with only 59 walks.

Braden Looper had his best season yet, using his sinker to record 199 innings, 45 walks and a 1.31 WHIP.

Ben Sheets is the big gamble- ace stuff, but this is the first time in the last four seasons he's made more than 25 starts.

And the money the Yanks save on CC should go toward bringing Tex to the Bronx.  He'll be overpaid, but I'd rather have Teixeira on the team for 9 years than have Manny here for four.

Obviously, the Canyon of Heroes moves farther away if this happens, but it doesn't make a playoff run or a title impossible.

Jon Heyman says that the Yankees are considering free agent 2B Orlando Hudson.

The Yankees might have to consider some rejiggering as well, since they currently have the talented Robinson Cano at second base. While they could consider moving Cano to first base, the more likely scenario would be to trade Cano, either for a centerfielder (how about David DeJesus, who may be expendable now that the Royals have Coco Crisp) or a pitcher.

With Hudson likely to command upward of $50 million over 5 years despite a dislocated bone in his left wrist.  In addition to the concerns about his bat, it gives me concerns about his ability to hang in the pivot on the double play.  Just like when a catcher misses time after a collision, or when a pitcher gets hit by a batted ball, I want to see Hudson make the plays before I really trust him.

David DeJesus is what he is, a decent centerfielder who will turn 29 in a month, though he is economically signed for the next three seasons (3.6, 4.7, and an option for 6).  But Cano is 3 years younger and scheduled to make, 6, 9, 10 with options at 14 and 15.

I think Brian Cashman has to kick the tires on Hudson, with a price ceiling in mind.  If Hudson wants to play for the Yankees, then flipping Cano for pitching or moving him to first or right field makes sense.

Could the Yanks put Cano (rather than Hughes) at the center of a Peavy deal?  I doubt it.  What other teams have young pitching and are in the market for a 2B?