OTM Community prospects: how are we doing?

by SoxDevil on Jan 4, 2008 1:22 PM EST in News

Hello Fellow OTMers! As we near the end of our community prospect rankings, I thought I'd post some comparisons to see how we stack up against John Sickels from Minor League Ball and SoxProspects.com.

What sticks out is how highly John thinks of Lars Anderson. He's also a big fan of Josh Reddick, Oscar Tejeda, and Dustin Richardson. For information on John's grading system, click here.

SoxProspects really likes Oscar Tejeda, ranking him 11th at 19 years old. And we here at OTM have a serious man-crush on Jacoby.

Rank:	OTM	John Sickels - Grade	SoxProspects - Score
1.	Jacoby Ellsbury	Clay Buccholz - A	Clay Buchholz - 9-10
2.	Clay Buccholz	Jacoby Ellsbury - A-	Jacoby Ellsbury - 8-9
3.	Jed Lowrie	Jed Lowrie - A-	Justin Masterson - 7-9
4.	Justin Masterson	Lars Anderson - B+	Jed Lowrie - 7-9
5.	Michael Bowden	Michael Bowden - B	Michael Bowdin - 7-9
6.	Lars Anderson	Justin Masterson - B	Lars Anderson - 7-9
7.	Ryan Kalish	Nick Hagadone - B	Nick Hagadone - 7-9
8.	Nick Hagadone	Ryan Kalish - B	Ryan Kalish - 6-9
9.	Brandon Moss	Will Middlebrooks - B-	Oscar Tejeda - 6-9
10.	Will Middlebrooks	Josh Reddick - B-	Brandon Moss - 6-8
11.	Oscar Tejeda	Oscar Tejeda - B-	Will Middlebrooks - I
12.	Chris Carter	Aaron Bates - B-	Chris Carter - 6-8
13.	Josh Reddick	Brandon Moss - C+	Josh Reddick - 6-8
14.	Aaron Bates	Craig Hansen - C+	Aaron Bates - 6-8
15.	Michael Almanzar	Dustin Richardson - C+	Kirs Johnson - 6-8
16.	Jason Place	Reid Engel - C+	Che-Hsuan Lin - 6-9

In terms of talent, the Red Sox are ranked 2nd by Baseball Prospectus. The top 5 systems are as follows:

Tampa Bay Rays
Boston Red Sox
Cincinnati Reds
Texas Rangers
NY Yankees

Good times!

Tweet Comment 8 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Re: OTM Community prospects: how are we doing?

Nice..It will be interesting where our system will
be if we get Santana..

by Bosoxman34 on Jan 4, 2008 3:08 PM EST reply actions

Re: OTM Community prospects: how are we doing?

Not to knock our system, but how are we #2 with "only" three A's, one of which should be our opening day CF and the other two who aren't far behind?

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Jan 4, 2008 7:53 PM EST reply actions

Re: OTM Community prospects: how are we doing?

Are you saying the Sox system is over or underrated?

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Jan 4, 2008 10:15 PM EST up reply actions

Re: OTM Community prospects: how are we doing?

Neither. I'm saying that with the #2 overall system, I would expect more than three "A" players. I think our strength comes from depth, as opposed to real top-flight prospects (Buchholz excepted, of course). Though maybe some of the younger guys like Lars or Place will develop into "A's".

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Jan 5, 2008 5:50 PM EST up reply actions

Re: OTM Community prospects: how are we doing?

A's from Sickels are very rare. I think 3 is actually a stretch for this system by his standards. I remember a lot of his readers say "Why A- for Lowrie?!" after he posted his list. I think A- is high for him.

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Jan 5, 2008 6:50 PM EST up reply actions

Re: OTM Community prospects: how are we doing?

I was surprised about Jed's high grade too. I guess what I'm getting at is that while we have good depth and pretty good pitching prospects after Buchholz, we don't really have any 5-tool studs along the lines of a Maybin or Bruce or Justin Upton. I would think the 2nd best system in baseball would have more than one stud pitcher, a borderline AS in CF and a few strong 19-year-olds.

Maybe I'm being too negative and undervaluing Bowden, Masterson et al. These guys think about this stuff a lot more than I do, and if they all think our system is near the top of the game, it's definitely cause for celebration.

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Jan 5, 2008 8:39 PM EST up reply actions

Re: OTM Community prospects: how are we doing?

Randy has it right. From Sickel's own blog:

Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.

Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.

Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all.

...

Also note that there is diversity within each category. I'm a tough grader; Grade C+ is actually good praise coming from me, and some C+ prospects turn out very well indeed.

It should be noted that the younger a prospect is, the lower is grade. For example, Oscar Tejeda is a B- as graded by John Sickels, but if he continues to progress and capitalize on his "toolsiness" he could be an A/A- by the time he's 22. Sickels is rating 26 year olds and 19 year olds on the same scale.

I would have graded Lowrie a B/B+ but Sickels wrote that he has a gut feeling about the kid and bumped him higher.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jan 7, 2008 9:19 AM EST up reply actions

Re: OTM Community prospects: how are we doing?

I know we all love Jacoby, but Clay Buchholz is the gem of the system. He is a future stud to plug in between Beckett and Dice-K, or maybe Santana and Dice-K, =).

Jacoby is tight, but this type of pitching prospect only comes trough a system once in a decade or so.

I think the Yankees are smart to not deal Hughes and Jaba and look elsewhere for a veteran arm.

If the Yu Darvish rumors are true, big if, and Nippon posts him early, the Yanks could restock their staff with young arms to compete with the Sox for the next 5-10 years.

How about these matchups for the next decade or so:

Beckett v. Wang
Santana v. Jaba
Buchholz v. Hughes
Dice-K v. Darvish in a battle for Japanese Supremacy.

or if Darvish does not move to the US and the Indians are fools, maybe plug in CC instead.

Either way, man, Yanks v. Sox would be awesome for a long time to come.

by SoxAcumen on Jan 4, 2008 8:02 PM EST reply actions