Javier Lopez: To be or not to be in the bullpen? That is the question
by Randy Booth on Jan 15, 2008 10:23 PM EST
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Javier Lopez: Will he find a slot in the Red Sox bullpen next spring?
The Sporting News recently ranked the Red Sox No. 2 in the American League for their bullpen. They list the members of the bullpen and why they slot in the No. 2 spot:
RHP Jonathan Papelbon, LHP Hideki Okajima, RHP Mike Timlin, RHP Manny Delcarmen, RHP Julian Tavarez, RHP Kyle Snyder, LHP Javier Lopez
Depth helps the bullpen stay fresh; no one had to pitch more than 70 innings in '07. Okajima served as a great bridge to Papelbon. Opponents hit .183 against Delcarmen.
Lopez, the supposed "LOOGY" in the Sox bullpen, didn't quite fit that mold last season for the Red Sox. A LOOGY is supposed to be extremely effective versus left-handed batters. They're the pitchers who you bring in to get that one great left-handed smasher out late in the game. That wasn't the case.
Lopez appeared in 61 games for the Sox last season, amassing 40.2 total innings -- typical LOOGY stats. But his numbers against left-handed hitters were much less than impressive:
vs LHB
AB R H 2B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG
82 20 24 5 1 8 18 .293 .366 .805
That's not a LOOGY in my book.
Despite Terry Francona's reliance on Jonathan Papelbon and Hideki Okajima, Lopez was uneffective in the post-season as well:
Year Round Tm Opp WLser G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H ER BB SO
+------+-----+---+---+-----+---+---+------+--+--+--+--+-----+---+---+---+---+
2007 ALDS BOS LAA W 1 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.1 0 0 0 0
ALCS BOS CLE W 3 0 18.00 0 0 0 0 2 3 4 2 0
WS BOS COL W 1 0 undef 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
+------+-----+---+---+-----+---+---+------+--+--+--+--+-----+---+---+---+---+
3 Postseason Ser 3-0 5 0 15.43 0 0 0 0 2.1 5 4 2 0
+--------------------+-----+---+---+------+--+--+--+--+-----+---+---+---+---+
Baseball-Reference.com
What can the Red Sox expect out of Lopez next season? Or, better yet, what do they want out of Lopez next year? If he's relied on as the LOOGY, it may not work based off his 2007 numbers. In his career (a career mostly in the National League) his numbers versus lefties aren't too bad: .257/.335/.359 in 343 at-bats.
But if they want to use him as a true reliever, pitching equally (and for complete innings) against both righties and lefties, it might work out better for them. Considering Lopez did post decent numbers overall last season with a 3.10 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and a .240 BAA. His numbers against righties were actually better than against left-handed batters. Go figure.
Lopez is going to prove worthless though if Francona continues to use Lopez in these "Get an out ... maybe get an out?" type of situations he's had him in. If a coach uses a reliever in specific roles, then that reliever needs to be great in that specific role. If that reliever is anything other than great, then it is a waste of a roster spot. Why have a reliever come in against lefties and not be able to get them out?
If Lopez is a member of the Red Sox bullpen next season then some things need to happen:
A) Lopez needs to be a true LOOGY and be effective against left-handed batters. Which I understand is hard to ask if he hasn't already done it, but...If neither of those things happen then we're stuck in the same situation with a pretty useless reliever in the bullpen. I'd rather see a pitcher like Craig Hansen gain some experience in the 6th and 7th innings than have Lopez sometimes get an out, sometimes pitch mop-up, etc.OR
B) Francona needs to use Lopez as a true reliever, against both lefties and righties, and gauge his success in a bigger role. If he struggles, then it's obvious what needs to happen next. But if he has numbers similar to 2007 (with a larger sample size, of course) then he'll be a nice fit in the 'pen.
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Javier's five-year splits
2007:
vs. L: .805 in 82 ABs
vs. R: .561 in 68
2006:
vs. L: .666 in 32 ABs
vs. R: .750 in 24 ABs
2005:
vs. L: .823 in 35 ABs
vs. R: 1.192 in 39 ABs
2004:
vs. L: .624 in 77 ABs
vs. R: .914 in 80
2003:
vs. L: .622 in 116 ABs
vs. R: .718 in 109
The bigger question, of course, is how The Sporting News gave the number one spot to the bullpen with Joe freakin Borowski as the "stopper."
by tommy.otm on Jan 15, 2008 10:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Javier's five-year splits
by Randy Booth on Jan 15, 2008 11:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Javier Lopez: To be or not to be in the bullpe
As for us, I like the pen, but I think we are missing a piece. Maybe we can get that fixed with a Tavarez deal or moving Coco.
Lopez is a joke, I cannot stand the guy. We do not need him. Correct me if I a wrong but his strength is his ability to get righties out. Well, we already have that guy, Okie and he does a much better job.
If we need to put a pitcher in who can pitch and be effective to both righties and lefties, Okie is the guy hands down. He has shown the Sox time and again that he can handle the pressure.
The Sox should dump Lopez or move him and either promote from within or find another lefty who can actually get lefties out.
by SoxAcumen on Jan 16, 2008 12:47 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Javier Lopez: To be or not to be in the bullpe
On that note, kudos to Tito for balancing the urgency of winning a pennant to keeping our guys fresh(er) for the post-season. I have to admit that I second-guessed him down the stretch.
by SoxDevil on Jan 16, 2008 9:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Javier Lopez: To be or not to be in the bullpe
Both did a great job, but again, after the Sox got a look at each about 100 times in the ALCS, our professional hitters finally figured them out.
As for which team has the best pen, I am a Sox fan, I believe because of Okie, Timlin and Paps who are all reliable in the clutch, our pen is better, but I can see why the Indians are rated higher.
Anyone here not want Betancourt or Lewis or even Perez if the Indians lost their minds and wanted to trade for Lopez straight up?
All I am saying is give credit where its due. Don't be like the Los Angeles Yankees of Anaheim fans.
by SoxAcumen on Jan 16, 2008 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Javier Lopez: To be or not to be in the bullpe
I also think we're hurt because as we debate over Santana, that means a guy like Tavarez, who should be getting traded, is put on the back burner. I don't think Tavarez will be in Tokyo come the A's series.
by Randy Booth on Jan 16, 2008 4:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Javier Lopez: To be or not to be in the bullpe
We all know that the 9th inning isn't always the most critical situation. Sometimes the scheduled hitters for the 7th and 8th innings are the toughest. Assuming continued success, I can agree with TSN that the Indians setup corps (Betancourt, Lewis, Perez) are probably at least a little better than ours (MDC, Oki, Timlin), if not more than a little. Plus, of course, the 5th guy for the Indians (their new Japanese RP, Kobayashi) should be better than our current 5th options (Snyder, Lopez, Tavarez, even Hansen).
The gulf between the closers is, obviously, huge, but the entire closer role and accompanying save statistic is a little overrated anyway.
by Allen Chace on Jan 16, 2008 5:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Javier Lopez: To be or not to be in the bullpe
by Randy Booth on Jan 16, 2008 5:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Javier Lopez: To be or not to be in the bullpe
by Randy Booth on Jan 16, 2008 5:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Javier Lopez: To be or not to be in the bullpe
As for the other thing: not yet.
by Allen Chace on Jan 16, 2008 6:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Javier Lopez: To be or not to be in the bullpe
by Randy Booth on Jan 16, 2008 6:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Javier Lopez: To be or not to be in the bullpe
by SoxDevil on Jan 17, 2008 9:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Javier Lopez: To be or not to be in the bullpe
by britsoxfan on Jan 17, 2008 9:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Javier Lopez: To be or not to be in the bullpe
Kobayashi/Lewis/Perez for the 7th and 8th, Betancourt to close.
Am I crazy or does that seem better than what they used last season in the ALCS?
by SoxAcumen on Jan 16, 2008 8:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Javier Lopez: To be or not to be in the bullpe
by Randy Booth on Jan 16, 2008 8:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I like this discussion,
Lopez isn't bad. I seem to remember him successfully being brought in to get a inning-ending DP on a number of occasions. However, we could conceivably strengthen by bringing up Hansen or Breslow, or via trade (don't think there's much left out there in the free agent market). Or we could even see Justin Masterson before too long - SoxProspects have him leading the PawSox rotation in their projected rosters, which would be a very exciting and aggressive move on the Sox's part.
by britsoxfan on Jan 16, 2008 3:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 16, 2008 7:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Agreed
I disagree on Masterson. I think we should be very patient and season him properly.
by SoxDevil on Jan 16, 2008 9:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
To be, or not to be in the bullpen
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer the
Slings and arrows of outrageous relief pitching,
Or to trade Lopez against a sea of undesiring
teams, and by trading, cut him? To cut; to have
No more, and by a trade to say we end
The heartache and the thousand natural shocks
That Lopez brought us; 'tis a consummation devoutly to be wished. To not have, to relax;
To relax, perchance to fret; aye, there's the rub;
For in that void of Lopez, what relievers may come
When he has shuffled off for a bag of balls
Must give us pause; there's the consideration,
That makes calamity of relief pitching;
For who would bear the whips and scorns of Lopez,
The unintentional walk, the lefthanded home-run,
The pangs of wildness, Francona's delay,
The incompetence of the LOOGY and the spurns
That patient merit of the unworthy takes,
When Theo himself might our peace create
With a mere release? What would fans bear,
To yell and storm at the manager,
But that the dread of something after Lopez,
The Undiscovered Reliever, from whose arm
No talent exudes, puzzles the mind,
And makes us rather bear the evil we know,
Than fly to others that we know not of?
Thus conscience doth make cowards of us all
And thus the native hue of Red Sox Nation
Is sicklied o'er with the fell shroud of doubt
And trades of great pith and moment,
With this fear their currents turn away,
And lose the name of action.
by 0157H7 on Jan 16, 2008 11:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: To be, or not to be in the bullpen
by Randy Booth on Jan 16, 2008 12:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Next on "Masterpiece Theater"
by SoxDevil on Jan 16, 2008 12:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: To be, or not to be in the bullpen
just... wow.
by BoSox415 on Jan 16, 2008 5:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: To be, or not to be in the bullpen
by SoxDevil on Jan 17, 2008 9:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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