The counter-punch eases Red Sox Nation

by Randy Booth on Sep 15, 2007 8:16 PM EDT in News

Friday night's game was horrible. New Over The Monster rule: never talk about Friday night's game ever again. Sound good to everyone? Great.

To counter the "game we must not speak of," the Red Sox slapped around Chien-Ming Wang and a good portion of the Yankees' bullpen. With a parade of 12 hits and eight walks, the Sox were able to take the second game, 10-1, and push the AL East lead back up to 5.5 games.

I was worried after the "game we must not speak of" that the Yankees would ride the huge wave of momentum and sweep the series. They obviously didn't do that today. With today's win, we don't have to even think about Friday's game because I feel like it's been wiped off the slate.

Man, oh man: Josh Beckett is an ace. He's there now. Critics have said in the past that Beckett never has been an ace before and that he may never be one because he can't stay healthy. Way to shut them up, Josh.

With the win, Beckett is 19-6 on the season. He is one win shy of breaking the 20 game mark. The last Sox pitcher to win at least 20 games was Curt Schilling in 2004 with 21. Beckett could, potentially, get three more starts the rest of the season. I will be ecstatic if he can hit 22 wins because it may be enough for him to earn the Cy Young.

Today's match-up was a nice preview of current ace's of the Red Sox and Yankees. Tomorrows is a 180 degrees different: the old timer's game. That isn't a knock at all, though. I'm more anticipating the Schilling, Roger Clemens match-up than today's Beckett, Wang game. It's going to be heated out on the field tomorrow and it'll be a doozy to watch.

OK, Red Sox. Let's ride the momentum and make our magic number zero sooner rather than later.

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Comments

Re: The counter-punch eases Red Sox Nation

The second OTM rule is: Don't forget rule number one.

by sdkramer.otm on Sep 15, 2007 8:25 PM EDT reply actions

Re: The counter-punch eases Red Sox Nation

Life is good, go out drink, get laid, and enjoy first place. We are going to the playoffs and then we will win the world series. We are a better team than the MFY.

by Matzushocka on Sep 15, 2007 9:29 PM EDT reply actions

A better team, huh?

On what grounds?

Yankee Ombudsman

by LateInningRelief on Sep 17, 2007 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: A better team, huh?

Overall record, run differential, run differential this weekend, the Sox pitching staff has allowed 104 less runs...stop me if I went too fast.

by Allen Chace on Sep 17, 2007 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh, you

mean historically a better team, giving equal weight to the first half and how the teams are playing now...

I see.

Yankee Ombudsman

by LateInningRelief on Sep 17, 2007 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Oh, you

My gut is that we're a clean-up hitter away from being a superior team.

Just my two cents. Keep the change.

by tommy.otm on Sep 17, 2007 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Oh, you

Do the games in the first half not count anymore, for some reason?

by Allen Chace on Sep 18, 2007 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Sure, they

count. Just shouldn't really be used to decide who is the best team, but rather who was the best team. You could amass the best record in baseball w/ three staff aces who all have season-ending injuries on September 1. Doesn't really make you the best team anymore, does it?

Yankee Ombudsman

by LateInningRelief on Sep 18, 2007 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Today

the Yankees' starter is Mike Mussina. Therefore the Yankees are not the best team in baseball.

Just my two cents. Keep the change.

by tommy.otm on Sep 18, 2007 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Today

Moose's line: 7 IP, 3 Hits, 0 ERs.

I'll take it.

Yankee Ombudsman

by LateInningRelief on Sep 18, 2007 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Sure, they

I kind of see your point about the whole season vs. recent success, but WTF? By extension of your theory, the St. Louis Cardinals were absolutely the best team in baseball last season. Please tell me you don't truly believe that.

by Allen Chace on Sep 18, 2007 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions

There's a difference between

getting hot at the right team and having the best team. You guys won the 2005 series, after all.

Even so, I think it's debatable that you have the best team on paper right now. We've got a much deeper bench than we did 3 months ago, and our rookie throwers have changed the dynamic significantly. A revamped Moose would be great, but Kennedy & Hughes are also good contenders for the 4th post-season rotation spot.

Who knows? Maybe Ellsbury and Bucholz change the dynamic for you as well? But the first half of the season is a distant memory for the Yankees.

Yankee Ombudsman

by LateInningRelief on Sep 18, 2007 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions

* 2004 Series

Yankee Ombudsman

by LateInningRelief on Sep 18, 2007 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: The counter-punch eases Red Sox Nation

I doubt Beckett will win the Cy Young, but if he can turn in three more starts like this one, he absolutely deserves it. The way he stepped up today was huge -- exactly what you want to see from an ace in a crucial situation.

by RSNexile on Sep 15, 2007 10:34 PM EDT reply actions

Re: The counter-punch eases Red Sox Nation

Why would he not win the Cy Young?

by cblesz @ Over the Monster on Sep 16, 2007 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: The counter-punch eases Red Sox Nation

Agreed -- I think he clinched it today. The numbers are all there, and he just punched out the Yankees in the middle of the pennant race on National TV. This is a bit of a media award, so that's huge. Plus he essentially eliminated Wang. I think it's his. But then, individual awards... meh.

by el fuego on Sep 16, 2007 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: The counter-punch eases Red Sox Nation

It's not always awarded on merit. Remember when Roger Clemens won it in 2001? He won because his record was 20-3, but he wasn't even the best pitcher on his own team that year. He just had ridiculous run support all year, and he was a MFY, which is always good for a few unearned votes.

And this year, there are several other pitchers who can make solid claims the deserve the Cy Young. Santana, Sabathia, Haren, Bedard, Lackey, and Carmona all deserve some consideration. And anyone who suggests Wang deserves consideration, idiot though they may be, must also consider Verlander, who has had a better season for a worse team.

by RSNexile on Sep 16, 2007 1:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: The counter-punch eases Red Sox Nation

Bedard: was on track but for a loser, and missing the last month puts paid to it.

Haren: not a bad pick, but the wins aren't there.

Sabathia: justifiable, but what's he done better than Beckett?

Santana: Johan? Off year. Past winners can't slip and win again.

Lackey: see Sabathia.

Carmona: next year.

Those are reasonable suggestions, but I think Beckett's wins, solid ERA, strikeouts, and ace status for the best team will get it done.

by el fuego on Sep 16, 2007 1:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: The counter-punch eases Red Sox Nation

I agree Beckett deserves it, and if I was a voter he'd have my first-place vote. But to answer your criticisms -- and note that you're biased:

Bedard: agreed, but he should still finish in the top 7 or so

Haren: wins are a lousy way to gauge a pitcher's season -- see my note on Clemens in 2001; fewer wins only because of significantly less run support from his teammates; lower ERA; more IP; fewer starts missed due to injury

Sabathia: until today, ERA was lower; he's had a better second half than Beckett; his team has been surging while Beckett's has been losing ground to their nearest rival; more IP; fewer starts missed due to injury; higher K/BB ratio; fewer wins only because of significantly less run support from his teammates

Santana: previous years' results ought to have no bearing on the decision; lower ERA; more IP; fewer starts missed due to injury; lower WHIP; lower BAA; more strikeouts; higher K/9IP; fewer wins only because of significantly less run support from his teammates

Lackey: until today, ERA was lower; his team has been surging while Beckett's has been losing ground to their nearest rival; more IP; fewer starts missed due to injury

Carmona: until today, ERA was lower; his team has been surging while Beckett's has been losing ground to their nearest rival; more IP; fewer starts missed due to injury; fewer wins only because of significantly less run support from his teammates

In short, if I had to vote today, it would be Beckett-Sabathia-Santana, with Lackey and Haren close behind. But you cannot claim objectively that a great argument cannot be made for one of the the others to be first, especially Sabathia and Santana. If your argument is that Beckett deserves it over the others because of the wins, then your argument is lazy. It's as flawed as the one that gave Clemens the Cy Young in 2001 when he wasn't even the best pitcher on his own team (Mussina had better numbers in just about every conceivable category except run support, so he went 17-11 while Clemens was 20-3 while being a significantly inferior pitcher).

Also consider that these guys each have 2-3 starts left. Suppose Beckett gets lit up for 10 runs in the first inning his next time out and gets pounded again his next time up, but Santana throws three straight shutouts. Are you going to give it to Beckett because he'd have 19 wins to Santana's 18, despite Santana having significantly better numbers in every other major category and far less run support?

by RSNexile on Sep 16, 2007 2:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: The counter-punch eases Red Sox Nation

I should probably also note how remarkable it is that all these guys have numbers that are so similar. If there individual performance numbers are identical, I'm fine with wins being the tiebreaker. But if it ends up that there's a difference in wins of just one or two, but some of the other guys have ERAs .1 or .2 lower than Beckett's, and with more innings pitched, then giving the Cy Young to Beckett isn't about his pitching but about his team, and that's not what the award is supposed to be about.

by RSNexile on Sep 16, 2007 2:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: The counter-punch eases Red Sox Nation

I'm clearly overtired -- that should be "If their individual performance numbers..."

by RSNexile on Sep 16, 2007 2:33 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: The counter-punch eases Red Sox Nation

I don't agree that wins are a minor statistic (you didn't say that, but you did downplay their importance). Sometimes ERA rather than wins is the deceptive statistic. Men on second and third, one out. Does the infield play in to try to prevent the run, or play back to increase the likelihood of getting a second out? What about the outfield -- play in to nail a runner attempting to score, or play normal depth to increase the odds of getting one out? And of even greater importance, how do you pitch to the batter? Obviously the answers to these questions depend on the situation, but basically it boils down to whether you NEED to prevent the run, or can afford to give up a run in order to get the out. And if you're a pitcher staked to a big lead (i.e., have the run support), your ERA might be higher than it otherwise would be because your team is less concerned with preventing a run here and there, versus getting the outs.

For this reason, I look at a difference in ERA of .2 or so to be similar to a difference in wins of 2 or so, i.e., not particularly significant. There are seven legitimate claims to the Cy Young at the moment (I include Escobar, and because his season is finished with only 13 wins, exclude Bedard). All of them have ERAs between 3.07 and 3.25. Beckett has two more wins than any of the others, Haren has 14, Santana 15, Lackey 16, and the others 17. Santana's well above all the others in WHIP, but Beckett's at #2, just ahead of Sabathia. Santana has allowed 30 HRs, nine more than "runner-up" Haren, and twice as many as Beckett, suggesting that Santana's lead in WHIP isn't as significant as it might otherwise be.

If the season ended yesterday, I think these things support Beckett winning the Cy Young (I'd put Sabathia runner-up), but because all of these pitchers are so bunched together, it's going to take the last two weeks of the season to sort it all out. And if it isn't sorted out (and there's a decent chance it won't be), anything goes.

by argo0 on Sep 16, 2007 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: The counter-punch eases Red Sox Nation

You're missing the point. As I've said repeatedly, if I had to vote, I'd give it to Beckett right now, though they're all so closely bunched together that it will come down to the last couple of weeks of the season. But, and this is the key, the most deserving pitcher doesn't always win. I even explained a few reasons why.

That's it. Beckett may be the most deserving pitcher as of right now, but that's not a guarantee he'll win. The voters are known to do stupid things with astonishing regularity.

by RSNexile on Sep 16, 2007 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: The counter-punch eases Red Sox Nation

I agree that Beckett has the stats to win, but I don't think he has enough buzz in the national press. Or for that matter, even in the local press - from today's Globe - "Indians PR maven Bart Swain has mounted a catchy campaign for "Cy Cy" Sabathia." If even Cafadaro can report that Sabathia's marketing campaign is catchy (as opposed to annoying), I worry about Beckett's chances.

That said, 22 wins would bring a whole lotta buzz.

Just my two cents. Keep the change.

by tommy.otm on Sep 16, 2007 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Violating the rule

So I won't really talk about that game, but a few points of perspective.

I just watched the first meeting of the year, when we did pretty much the exact thing to them (kept it tivo'ed). It happens, but if it;'s the regular season, it's just one game.
Papelbon is entitled to a few bad nights. They just feel like "sky is falling" games because, well, he doesn't pitch the 4th. Or when they're losing anyway.
IMHO nobody rose up for the Yankees, so much as two straight reliable pitchers were grooving a lot of pitches. I'm a little concerned about Okaji going fwd, he's pitched way beyond the original scouting report all year. But if Papelbon bounces back tomorrow (or whenever), then I am comfortable saying last night was a complete anomaly.
As of Saturday eve, we just kicked the crap out of the Yankees' clear #1 and 2 starters. If we choked Friday, what do you call Wang's outing today? He was all over the place. We just didn't wait until the 8th to rip him a new one.
Buster Olney has an uncharacteristically fawning piece on ESPN about the Yankees believing they can beat the Sox now. If they didn't before, that's pathetic. He also thinks the Sox have nobody for the 8th because Okaji was bad last night and Francona has no confidence in Gagne. Both are issues, but I believe Gagne is coming around, and Francona is just easing him in after his little sore arm thingy. We'll see. Okajima hasn't been great lately, but after 80 terrific innings we shouldn't get too restless yet.

OK, that's enough for now. I'm feeling an awful lot better today, but a similar win tomorrow will make Friday's game pretty much disappear.

by el fuego on Sep 16, 2007 1:48 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Violating the rule

Uncharacteristic? Olney is a Yankee ballwasher...

by cblesz @ Over the Monster on Sep 16, 2007 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Woo hoo!!!

Just home after a LOOOONG night drinking. I love New York. Pity they don't have any baseball teams down here. Heh heh.

Just my two cents. Keep the change.

by tommy.otm on Sep 16, 2007 3:03 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Woo hoo!!!

Funny...but i have a feeling we'll be seeing the Mets (& Pedro) before this thing is all over!

You can take the boy outta Boston, but you can't take the Boston outta the boy.

by B Cap on Sep 16, 2007 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Woo hoo!!!

Perhaps I should've said AL baseball teams?

Anyways, as I said, it was a LOOOONG night drinking, so don't put much weight in whatever was written.

Just my two cents. Keep the change.

by tommy.otm on Sep 16, 2007 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Woo hoo!!!

I wouldn't mind a rematch of 1986.

by RSNexile on Sep 16, 2007 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Woo hoo!!!

Me neither.

Just my two cents. Keep the change.

by tommy.otm on Sep 16, 2007 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't know whether Beckett will win

but this game has ensured that Wang definitely will not.

Bottom 9th B:1 S:0 O:0 With Bill Mueller batting, Dave Roberts steals (1) 2nd base.

by britsoxfan on Sep 16, 2007 4:02 AM EDT reply actions

The Turning Point Yesterday

Was when Youk got hit and left the game. Replacing Youk with Ellsbury was huge. This isn't a second guess. I thought so at the time. Since the ASB, Youk and Tek haven't been good offensively (even though they are 3rd and 4th in HR respectively).

Sox fans boo Drew and Lugo. Say what you want, but those two players have benn significantly better than Tek and Youk offensively.

Post All-Star Sox Offensive Stats:
AVG / OBP / SLG
Ellsbury (50 AB) .400/.426/.680
Lowell (233 AB) .361/.421/.472
Ortiz (213 AB) .343/.447/.671
Pedroia (233 AB) .330/.373/.442
Ramirez (162 AB) .309/.384/.549
Lugo (233 AB) .292/.328/.408
Kielty (42 AB).286/.304/.405
Crisp (215 AB) .284/.354/.395
Drew (171 AB) .275/.371/.409
Hinske (64 AB) .266/.397/.516
Youkilis (218 AB) .234/.357/.394
Varitek (159 AB) .214/.344/.333

Despite the struggles of Youk and Tek, this team has been much better offensively during their second half "slide."

Team Hitting Stats:
AVG / OBP / SLG
Pre- ASB .273/.358/.437
Post-ASB .290/.370/.449

The Sox' run differential in the first half was +89. In the second-half, the Sox are +113.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Sep 16, 2007 9:59 AM EDT reply actions

i hope you dont mind

OTM: fat billy hits back to back red sox batters, with the latter charging the mound. The benches clear, and the bullpen sprints in. Julian Tavarez and Joba Chamberlain takes center stage and starts trading punches. But low and behold, its matt clement!! he comes from behind and knocks joba out cold. all three (joba, JT, and clement) are tossed out of the game. then sox go on to win 8-7 in extra innings. clay buchholz holds the line, and dustin pedroia hits the walk off home run. dustin proceeds to run the bases while yelling "fuck you all" towards the yankee dugout. magic number down to 7, lead up to 6.5, SOSH server dies, yankee fans jump bridge, all is well.

by Tippecanoe on Sep 16, 2007 11:50 AM EDT reply actions

OTM--remember I said this !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Joe Morgan mentions multiple times the MFY are not in first place/are not doing as well as they would be in Gary Sheffield was still in the lineup. He will say losing Sheff left a HUGE HOLE in the MFY lineup 2-5 x. Joe Morgan then goes on to say CC Sabathia should win the Cy, over Beckett,for any number of reasons cough cough. Joe Morgan then will say Coco should be starting in the playoffs over Ellsbury for various reasons only Joe Morgan will explain cough cough. Joe Morgan will talk at length about his belief one day Robinson Canoe will win the batting title.

by Matzushocka on Sep 16, 2007 1:32 PM EDT reply actions

OTM--remember I said this !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I wouldn't have a problem with Sabathia winning the Cy Young. He is one of a few worthy contenders--along with Beckett, Fausto Carmona, John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, and Johan Santana.

Here are the top picthers by ERA in the AL right now:

(1) Fausto Carmona 17-8 3.07 ERA 1.21 WHIP
(2) Dan Haren 14-7 3.11 ERA 1.21 WHIP
(3) Johan Santana 15-12 3.14 ERA 1.06 WHIP
(4) Erik Bedard 13-5 3.16 ERA 1.09 WHIP
(5) Josh Beckett 19-6 3.20 ERA 1.13 WHIP
(6) C.C. Sabathia 17-7 3.21 ERA 1.15 WHIP
(7) John Lackey 16-9 3.21 ERA 1.26 WHIP
(8) Kelvim Escobar 17-7 3.25 ERA 1.24 WHIP

Bedard, Beckett, and Escobar have made the fewest starts due to injury and, thus, are the only pitchers listed who haven't yet thrown at least 200 innings. Sabathia's 227 IP leads the Cy Young candidates.

Beckett's chances are good because there are multiple teammates on the list: Carmona-Sabathia and Lackey-Escobar. Bedard has no chance because he was shut down due to injury. Haren and Santana are longshots. Assuming all of the pitchers don't get blown out in their remaining starts, I think it'll come down to Beckett, Sabathia, Carmona, Lackey, and Escobar. I think out of that group, Beckett will get it.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Sep 16, 2007 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions