Oh My [Insert Deity Here]

by Allen Chace on Sep 12, 2007 12:56 AM EDT in Open Thread Comment 12 comments

If you're too tired to click through to the article, it is written by Tom Singer, who is a columnist for MLB.com. That probably should've been my first clue that the analysis wasn't worth reading.

Or maybe the title...

AL Cy could boil down to longtime rivals
Wang, Beckett front-runners, with Sabathia right there, too

All right. Let's get a couple things out of the way first: anyone from a non-Yankee or Sox blog who reads this, I am aware of the "East Coast bias" and the bias concerning the Yanks and Sox specifically. I'm sure the most national airtime is devoted to our two teams. However, Josh Beckett is a bonafide Cy Young candidate, even if Kelvim Escobar and C.C. Sabathia may have just as good or better cases. He's up there. Chien-Ming Wang, on the other hand, is a bonafide 18-game winner. That's it. A couple of the more ridiculous mistakes in analysis:

If Cy Young balloting were like some cell phone plans, Wang would be a shoo-in thanks to rollover votes.

He would be a shoo-in if he got the 0.36 share he didn't deserve last season added on to what he'll get this season. Well, sure. If I got the money I made last year in addition to the money I'm making this year, I'd have a whole lot of money.

This next part is about Beckett

But he doesn't stand out on his staff as Wang does on his; not even close.

Are you farking serious? Wang deserves more votes because the other pitchers on his staff suck more than the ones that pitch alongside Josh Beckett. WTF mates?

Almost done, as surely/hopefully FJM will take this one and do a much better job than I. On the topic of John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar:

But he and Lackey are essentially the same pitcher, with virtually identical numbers.

That's it. Because they both are excellent pitchers, neither should win. Consider me convinced.

Look, I'm sure Wang will get some consideration, and almost certainly more than he'll deserve. Beckett may win on the basis of 20 wins and be helped a lot by the fact of pitching in Boston, but his peripherals are close to or better than Sabathia and Escobar. If no one can see the difference...

Oh yeah. In the Honorable Mention category:

Joe Borowski, Indians

Woohoo. 40 saves = always more important than a 1.465 WHIP. Before putting him down, Tom, why not ask just ONE Indians fan how they feel about Borowski getting one or two-run save opportunities in the playoffs.

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Re: Oh My [Insert Deity Here]

If Wang wins 20 games, he'll probably win the Cy Young. And he'll be the least deserving recipient since Roger Clemens won 20 games for the Yankees and beat out four or five pitchers who had better seasons a few years ago.

Frankly, if Wang wins the Cy Young, Jack Morris should be inducted into the Hall of Fame immediately.

by RSNexile on Sep 12, 2007 9:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Oh My [Insert Deity Here]

If Wang, Beckett, and Sabathia all win 20 games, who gets it? I agree with you about Wang--and Clemens. Also, Bartolo Colon didn't deserve a Cy Young in 2005.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Sep 12, 2007 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Oh My [Insert Deity Here]

Johan had a WHIP below 1 in 2005. I knew he was robbed, just didn't remember by how much.

by Allen Chace on Sep 12, 2007 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Joe Borowski

That could've been your lede. I thought you were joking, I had to check the article.

Just my two cents. Keep the change.

by tommy.otm on Sep 12, 2007 11:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Joe Borowski

It could've been and probably should've been. I suppose when I posted I was more about the anger of WTF is Wang doing in the same category as Bedard, Escobar, Sabathia, Santana (and, not sorry Yankee fans), Beckett.

I didn't even notice the Honorable Mention to Joe Borowski until just before I posted.

by Allen Chace on Sep 12, 2007 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Joe Borowski

I wasn't criticizing your post (which was very well executed), I was more guffawing at the idea that someone who presumably gets paid to think about baseball would actually list Joe Borowski under Honorable Mentions for the Cy Young Award. It's like he looked at the leader board for two wildly rated stats (wins and saves) and thought "these guys are the front-runners."

Sadly, that guy is probably way too representative of the people who actually vote for the Cy Young Award.

Just my two cents. Keep the change.

by tommy.otm on Sep 12, 2007 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Joe Borowski

should be "wildly OVERrated"

Just my two cents. Keep the change.

by tommy.otm on Sep 12, 2007 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Joe Borowski

Correct on both points. And it wasn't like I was offended by your non-criticism or anything, just agreeing with you. In retrospect, had I read through completely (I almost missed the honorable mention section entirely), I might've starter out with Joe Borowski: Most Honorable Cy Young Loser, or something to that effect. :)

by Allen Chace on Sep 12, 2007 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Oh My [Insert Deity Here]

It's interesting (to me, at least) to compare Beckett and Wang's peripherals.

The only stats where Wang is doing better are HR/9 and BABIP. Beckett has him beat in WHIP, AVG, ERA, K/9, and BB/9.

One thing I'm curious about in BABIP, that I've never been able to figure out - Does a ball hit in the air have a better chance of being a hit than a groundball? Will Wang's BABIP ever regress to the mean, or does the fact that he gets so many groundballs mean that he'll always have a better BABIP than league average?

Just my two cents. Keep the change.

by tommy.otm on Sep 12, 2007 6:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Oh My [Insert Deity Here]

A good comparable for the BABIP question might be Brandon Webb, whose BABIP is a couple ticks above Wang in a career vs. career comparison. Aside from Webb striking out more hitters, they probably have the best sinkers at the ML-level, so that might be the closest we can get.

My understanding on the subject as a whole is that BABIP is somewhat in control of the hitter, and a pitcher's will almost always hover around .290-.310 or so, taking luck out of the equation there.

"Being"'s career BABIP is .336 for example. Jeter's is .360!

So I guess the answer to your overriding question is that Wang's is close enough to the mean to expect him to have continued success as he has thusfar. If he's able to K more hitters in the coming years, he actually will be a strong Cy candidate. However, because more balls overall are put into play against him than someone who strikes out more hitters than he does, he probably has a better chance for, if not regression, a downturn in one season or another because he is so reliant on defense and the balls not finding holes. His sinker is so heavy that he has an edge there, but he's almost more (in my mind) susceptible to bad luck than many other pitchers.

As for the question of a better chance of GBs turning into hits or FBs, I believe the conventional wisdom is that FBs or LDs have the best chance over GBs. I certainly can't claim to be an expert of any sort on that though. And again, that could be a case-by-case basis.

by Allen Chace on Sep 12, 2007 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Oh My [Insert Deity Here]

"I believe the conventional wisdom is that FBs or LDs have the best chance over GBs."

Meaning it would be normal for a strict GB pitcher's BABIP to be lower than the league average, unless he gets really unlucky. Looking at Webb and even Lowe's career stats seem to support this, to a degree. So we may never see Wang "regress to the mean" as some of us Sox fans have hoped. :(

Of course, the fact that he relies on his fielders for virtually all of his outs means his lower BABIP isn't statistically that much of an advantage.

Just my two cents. Keep the change.

by tommy.otm on Sep 12, 2007 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Oh My [Insert Deity Here]

You are correct, and I suppose I should have been more direct with it. Even so, if his fielders have a bad year or he loses a couple MPH, it's much more likely he goes down the tubes than if a similar thing happened to a Sabathia, Beckett, Bedard, etc.

by Allen Chace on Sep 12, 2007 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs