The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
Alright. I know some will think this is a "sky is falling" post. But, in all reality it is. This Red Sox team had a 14 game lead in the division a mere couple of months ago. This morning, that lead stands at 5 games...and will shrink further. Soon we will be chasing the Yankees. Seriously, when Meicer Itzturis starts beating you, you got problems. After an honest assessment of the 2007 version of the Red Sox, I have come to this conclusion: The Yankees are going to win the division and we will be embarrassed as we lost a 14 game lead. We will be lucky to make the playoffs. My reasoning is as follows:
1)Our pitching. Given, it has seemed to be a strong point all season, but let's face it. It is shaky. With the exception of Beckett, Schilling looks old. C'mon, Meicer Itzturis hitting a home run off you? Wakefield has just been plain awful. Matsuzaka? Who knows which pitcher will show up? Lester? Same thing. He is still young and I expect big things from him. But to expect him to go out every fifth day and be lights out? Not reality.
The bullpen (middle relief)does not look that strong. Timlin is frightening. Delcarmen has been awful recently. Other than Okijima and Papelbon, who do you feel comfortable with? Tavarez? Please. Compare our starters alone to the Yankees now. Clemens, Mussina, Petitte, Wang and Hughes. Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Wakefield, Lester. Not really an advantage on either side. Again, the only one I feel comfortable with is Beckett. Big deal that we traded for Gagne...if we cannot get to him with the lead, who cares?
2)Our defense. My God. Lugo has to be the worst defensive shortstop we have had in a long time, (I will cover his offense in point 3). Mike Lowell has been awful defensively. Coco Crisp has been making some nice catches, but his arm is about as strong as Johnny Damon's. Manny? Please. The guy plays a deep shortstop. How many hits has he given up because he is playing so shallow?
3)Offense. This year's offensive version of the Red Sox is well, offensive. Julio Lugo, Coco Crisp, JD Drew. Good God. They are just plain awful. JD Drew = $70 million mistake. Julio Lugo is making $9 million a year to boot every third ground ball hit to him and bat .200. Nice job, Theo. Manny looks old. Papi is not himself. This team has no clutch hitting at all. If we do not have a lead after the fifth inning, game over. The only bright spots have been Pedroia and Youk. Let's be honest, Papi is not Papi. Manny is not Manny.
Which brings us to the Yankees. Are you kidding me? Who would you take offensively on the Red Sox right now over the Yankees? Nobody. They are scoring 8-10 runs a game. Even if their pitching falters, they just outslug teams. It is simply ridiculous. Giambi is coming back and they have nowhere to put him...they cannot find a place for a left handed power hitter! Given, they haven't faced Cy Young candidates every night but they have taken advantage of any situation they have been given. Yet, we face mediocre pitching and they baffle our hitters, (Baltimore series). there have been no late inning dramatics or any comebacks this year. In years past, I would watch and feel comfortable that Papi or Manny would come through at the end of the game. I certainly do not have that comfort this year.
Convince me, please. How do we hold off the Yankees? How do we improve? I just don't see it happening this year. I believe we needed a bat at the deadline to jump start this offense. Maybe it's Magadan. Maybe our power guys are getting old. Theo needs to be held more accountable also. JD Drew and Julio Lugo are the two worst decisions he has made. OK, I forgot Wily Mo. How much longer do we stay with Coco? Can we please bring up Jacoby? I hope I am wrong. I certainly do not want to listen to the Yankee fans and the media gloat over the Yankees catching us and the Red Sox choking. You know the national media is rooting for it...
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93 comments
Comments
Re: This team is going nowhere
by BlowUp on Aug 8, 2007 9:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: This team is going nowhere
- Crisp: his numbers after the ASB look like this: .313 BA, .389 OBP, 15 R, 17 RBI, he's doing just fine
- Our ERA and WHIP 7th inning and beyond is 2.90 and 1.17, 2nd best in all of the Majors, our bullpen is just fine (btw, Snyder is our primary long relief, not Tavarez, and he's been pretty reliable), and as for Delcarmen, he had one shaky game where he gave up 2 HR to tampa bay, since then he's been scoreless while allowing just 4 runners on in 4 inning (which is decent), not sure if you're concluding that he's been "awful" based on watching that one game, but he's been anything but awful
- You're giving the Yankees rotation way too much credit, Hughes isn't quite major league ready (as evident by his last outing where he gave up 6 runs in 4 innings to KANSAS CITY!), Clemens, Mussina and Pettite aren't the pitchers they use to be (Clemens since ASB: 4.45 ERA (which doesn't fully paint the picture considerin one game he gave up 8 runs in one 2 innings, but only 3 were earned because of an early inning error) 1.42 WHIP, Pettite last 10 games, 5.86 ERA 1.78 WHIP, Mussina Post ASB numbers: 4.76 ERA 1.62 WHIP
- You're giving our rotation too little credit, Yeah Dice-K will have his bad outing now and then, but he's still been better then anyone on the Yankee's rotation, (His numbers since ASB: 3.16 ERA 1.37 WHIP). Lester is in the same boat as Hughes, they'll both have great games one night, and then blown out other nights, simply because of inexperience (with maybe Hughes doping slightly better simply because he has more potential), Schilling and Wakefield are shadows of their former self just as much as the Yankee pitchers I noted above, so that's a wash
- Yankee's offence: Not only have they been playing crappy teams lately (which alone will cause their numbers to drop when they start playing good teams), but they are nothing more then on a hot streak, they are playing way beyond their skill and will come back down to earth (notice here some names who recently have been on a tear, and as their career numbers show, they simply are not that good, and won't keep hitting like that, most notable example: Phillips with career numbers of .247 BA, .286 OBP, is hitting .305 BA, .344 OBP last 68 at bats; Melky with career .288 BA, .354 OBP is hitting .358 BA .408 OBP, etc., if you compare all those numbers with their career numbers you'll notice that everyone is grossly overperforming, they will come back down to earth)
- Our offence is top 5 in all of the majors in every batting statistic post ASB (except HR, which with Ortiz and Manny not hitting as many is down), or offence is not as bad as you're making it out to be.
by Realistic on Aug 8, 2007 12:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: This team is going nowhere
Please. Talk to me on August 30th.
by B Cap on Aug 8, 2007 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Series with the Yankees
On to the substance of the diary:
1) Pitching---are you crazy? Beckett's not just the bright side of our rotation, he's a legitimate-if-not-quite-favored Cy Young candidate. Matsuzaka has his trouble spots but is otherwise a win- and strikeout-generating machine. Our fourth starter Wakefield is 13-10 (! did I mention "fourth starter"?), Lester's a young kid with a lot of upside, and then you have our "ace," who's admittedly struggled with injuries but has had moments of brilliance and still is a contribution to the rotation.
But the starters are just half of it. The Red Sox have not just the best 'pen in the American League, but a 'pen that is strikingly better than the rest of the AL (a stat I got from Baseball Prospectus this morning says they're 11.96 in WXRL, compared to 10.05 for the second-best Twins, and far ahead of the fifth-best Indians, with 7.86). Bottom line, our pitching is something to be envied, not bemoaned.
- Defense---maybe you're not crazy, exactly. If Lugo makes that double play last night, the inning ends tied 4-4, Wakefield stays in longer.... I don't want to think about it anymore. Manny is still being Manny in left. Lowell? I haven't noticed. Overall, however, our defense is solid---fifth in the majors by fielding percentage. You mentioned Coco---did you forget about Dusty and Youk? Varitek?
- Offense---umm, I'm swinging back to "are you crazy." Fourth in the majors in runs scored. Fourth. Yes, the Yankees and Tigers are ahead of us. They're also 15th/19th in pitching (team ERA), and we're 2nd. Batting is only half the game, and it counts for less than half the game in the playoffs.
The Yankees.... Hey, I'll cop to it. I'm a bit spooked. I really, really, really don't want my hundred or so Yankee fan friends (I live in New York) gloating about some grand comeback from 14 1/2 back all offseason. However, the Yanks have a really soft schedule. They're playing a crippled Toronto while we're playing a great Angels squad. They just feasted on Royals pitching while the Sox were struggling against the Central leading Cleveland. Guess what? the soft schedule is coming to an end soon---they face Cleveland, Anaheim, Detroit and the Red Sox. Their offense has been explosive as of late, but there's a reason they're not on pace to score 1,620 runs this season---they're not going to score 10 runs a game.
"Lucky to make the playoffs"? Okay, it's official: You're crazy. Someone needs to take away your shoelaces. If the Red Sox play .600 ball the rest of the way they'll be 98-64. You know how many games we play against Tampa Bay (12), Chicago (4) and Baltimore (7) during that stretch? 47% of the remaining games, with the Rays comprising roughly one quarter of our schedule.
None of this should be taken as "don't worry they'll be fine everything is copacetic." I'm concerned, too. But a five game lead isn't something to bemoan, as much as I'd like to be looking at a 19 1/2 lead and a possible elimination party at Yankee stadium. I think all this pessimism is exaggerated.
by Tony the pony on Aug 8, 2007 12:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
buh
"...
Soon we will be chasing the Yankees.
..."
LOL
relax, we WILL win the division.
1)
ERA 3.79 1st (AL) (2nd in ML out of the AL EAST!!!)
BA-A .250 1st (AL)
BS 4 1st (AL) (Yanks 2nd with 5 then)
ER-A 424 1st (AL)
HR-A 3rd
and on and on and on
i'll take this "shaky" pitching staff every League every Year.
2)
the defense is bad this year.
Lugo is worse.
Crisp has a much better arm than Damon.
Manny is a hitter.
i am concerned about the defense of Drew. he should be a great fielder but he is not this year. we paid enough to figure out in time if this contract is really as bad as it looks now.
3)
R 580 3rd (AL) (MFY 1st with 674!)
OPS .799 3rd (AL)
GDP 105 tied 2nd (AL) (and it feels like even more if you watch the sox this year)
HR 113 9th
Papi is/was hurt.
Manny is/will be fine.
i can not explain what happens with Drew at all, just hope he will be better in oct.
Lugo, hmm?
Lugo...
LUGO SUXX BIG TIME.
he ever did.
i can not see where the sox will have a good thing out of this contract (if he steals some important bases in the postseason i will calm down a little).
so we have a middelinfielder (SS) who can't field and hit but earns a lot of money (above 8000k). we have to live with that.
(this kind of situation is not a new one to sox fans. we just have a good all around team today to let forget about it sometimes. i would not be surprised if Lugo ends up at 1B.)
ahh, wait ther is one other stat that might be interesting for you:
W-L 68-45 1st ML !!!!
THE SOX ARE THE BEST TEAM IN BASEBALL RIGHT NOW!!!
just don't panic.
grab a beer, relax and enjoy the ride.
by OilCanBoyd on Aug 8, 2007 12:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
Indizzle, Oil Can and Realistic.
by Tony the pony on Aug 8, 2007 12:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Doesn't it hurt to wring your hands that hard?
And I don't know if you noticed or not, but we just won in Seattle TWICE where we hadn't been able to do so before that all season.
by panzermensch on Aug 8, 2007 1:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It is not how you start, but how you finish
I know you do not want to hear this, and I do not like saying it, but the stretch-run talent, the stretch-run killer instinct is not there with this team for all the reasons the diary author stated. I know all the optimists will attack with their blotted views of this team, but what you are seeing lately is what you really have, not what you are hoping to have!
by NG on Aug 8, 2007 1:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: It is not how you start, but how you finish
by cblesz on Aug 8, 2007 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It is not how you start, but how you finish
by SoxDevil on Aug 9, 2007 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
Tony:I gave Beckett his kudos. Without him, we would be much worse. I really do not care if Wakefield is our ace or our fifth starter. He is just plain awful. Out of his 13 wins, how much run support has he gotten? The guy's ERA is 4.81. Where specifically has Shilling been brilliant this season other than the Oakland game? His fast ball is not getting over 90 anymore. Statistically, the Sox may have the best pen in the league. But those numbers were generated the first half of the season. I would be curious to see how the ERA stacks up post all star break. Lowell? Are you serious? Defensively he has been AWFUL. I also gave kudos to Pedroia and Youk. And no, Coco's arm is NOT much better than Damon's. Varitek has been awful at the plate lately also...and can he throw anybody out anymore? As far as offense...again, you have to look into the numbers. I am sure we have many games where we scored 8-10 runs, which inflates our numbers. But, there are CERTAINLY several more where we do absolutely nothing...against mediocre pitching. We keep saying as fans, "as soon as Manny and Papi get going". Um, it is now August. When do you expect that to happen? The way they have been playing, they will be lucky to play .500 ball. You really think they can play .600?
Realistic: Crisp is NOT doing just fine. He had a hot streak recently which elevated his numbers. Again, look more closely at our bullpen numbers and when they were generated as I am sure after the ASB they are much worse. And, you are referring to the 7th and beyond. Which of course takes into account Papelbon and Okajima of which I gave kudos. Other than them, who are you comfortable with? Delcarmen was not too solid last night either. I never gave the Yankee rotation any credit. I just saw no difference in their rotation and ours. Wang and Beckett are pretty close. Other than that, swap any of the pitchers and you have the same guy. Dice-K's ERA not much better than Pettitte. Yankees on nothing more than a hot streak and playing above their talent? Are you serious? They are mashing the ball. With the talent they have they SHOULD be scoring 8-10 runs a game. Melky is a second year player. Not sure you can use his career numbers...I guess you forgot about Jeter, ARod, Posada, Matsui, Cano, Abreu...right, they suck. I agree with you that they have been playing AAA teams. But, we have not really dominated the bad teams either. Remember the KC series?
OilCan: I would be a bit more concerned about Drew's offense rather than his defense. All the pitcher needs to do is throw that slider away and he waves at it. Again, let's look closer at all the stats and how they have looked the past month and a half. Papi may be hurt. My point is that if he is he is hurting us. He has no pop anymore and looks bad at the plate. Manny had a brief streak where he was hot. But now teams are walking Ortiz to pitch to Manny because he hits into double plays. They are walking three to get to our cleanup? we have ABSOLUTLEY NO CLUTCH HITTING. Best record in baseball? Big deal. Means absolutely nothing. We built a big lead early in the season. We also just lost two to the second best team in baseball.
Look. I just do not see it. Nobody here answered the question about the Yankee lineup. Who as a hitter on the Sox would you take right now before someone in the Yankee lineup? And nobody has a convincing argument about any of the players. Simply saying, "they will be fine" does not give me comfort. Do we have pitching coach problems? What about batting coach? We do have a new batting coach this year. You all mean to tell me that on paper, up and down the lineup, you are comfortable with this team? You honestly turn on the game or go to Fenway and have confidence every night?
by cblesz on Aug 8, 2007 1:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
The bullpen numbers I refered to was after the ASB...so no, they are not worse, and yeah Papelbon and Oki probably are a big reason for this...but moving forward they'll still be a big reason for the bullpen's success, so why is that a big deal? And Delcarmen, regardless of if you thought he hasn't looked solid, his numbers show that he has been. Yeah he gave up two hits last night, but he got through the inning without giving up a run, pitchers give up hits, it happens. And that was the first hits he's given up in three games.
I see a huge difference between our rotations, it seems like you're looking at post ASB numbers when they serve your arguement and ignoring them when they don't, did you not see the numbers I posted for their pitchers after the ASB? Beckett and Dice-K have been better then anyone on their rotation, Wake/Shilling and Pettite/Clemens/Mussina are all in the same area (some slightly better or worse), and yes as bad as Wake has been so has Pettite/Clemens/Mussina, and Wang is somewhere between those two groups. Lester and Hughes are currently a wash (even if Hughes has more potential in the long run)
I never said they didn't have a good offense, just that they are a hot streak, which they are even if you want to believe otherwise. All those names you names, I never said they sucked, they're all great players, but if you actually looked at the link I left you'd see that not a single one of them is playing in line with their career numbers, they're all considerably higher, meaning most likely they will all have their numbers regress. They won't start hitting like bums, I never said that, they are good players, but there is no way they will keep up hitting like they have the past couple weeks
And it's funny that you compared how they're beating up on weak teams when we didn't do that, and in conclusion they are much better offense, because a common critisim I've heard of the Yankees is that many of their hitters are stat padders, meaning they go to town on weaker hitters, but when facing good hitters they are still good, but not amazing (I'm not sure where you would find this, but a buddy once showed me stats that showed that the batting stats between pitchers with ERAs and WHIP above league avg. compared to those with ERAs and WHIP below, Giambi, Abreu, Cano, A-Rod, and Matsui had significantly bigger drop off is batting statistics then most people do...if anyone knows where you could find that that would be awesome)
by Realistic on Aug 8, 2007 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
by cblesz on Aug 8, 2007 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i know whow you are!
you did not even look anything up what you are talking about!
"does he have ONE outfield assist this year?"
5 (in words: FIVE) so far.
middle of the pack i would guess (and that's my shot from the hips).
it is ok and normal for a Sox fan to have times to think everything is tumbling down.
or is that a way to make a research through your "staff" for an article, Joe. ; -)
when it is as easy as this i wish you would just have a short look at the stats before arguing like that.
or is that a way to make a research through your "staff" for an article.
by OilCanBoyd on Aug 8, 2007 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
by Realistic on Aug 8, 2007 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
by B Cap on Aug 8, 2007 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
Post All-Star bullpen stats:
Okajima 10.2 IP 1.69 ERA 0.75 WHIP
Timlin 10.1 IP 1.74 ERA 0.58 WHIP
Lopez 7.1 IP 2.45 ERA 0.95 WHIP
Papelbon 7 IP 2.57 ERA 1.14 WHIP (12 K)
Delcarmen 12.1 IP 2.92 ERA 1.22 WHIP
Snyder 11.1 IP 3.18 ERA 1.41 WHIP
Tavarez 5.2 IP 3.18 ERA 1.76 WHIP
Gagne 2 IP 9.00 ERA 2.50 WHIP
I didn't bother with Hatchet Face's lousy starting stats since cblesz was talking about the pen. I'd say those are pretty good stats, and I expect Gagne to pitch much better.
Cap'n Jack's and Papi's post-All Star stats:
Papi (22 G) .337 AVG/.422 OBP/.573 SLG
Manny (26 G) .340 AVG/.404 OBP/.660 SLG
I don't know--those stats look pretty good to me.
Pettitte has an ERA of 4.00. Matsuzaka's ERA is 3.70. So, on the face of it, cblesz is right.
Comparison of Dice-K and Pettitte:
Pettitte 8-7 4.00 ERA 1.45 WHIP .287 BAA
Matsuzaka 13-8 3.70 ERA 1.26 WHIP .243 BAA
A lot of people say Pettitte has been unlucky or he "has pitched better than his record." I disagree. With the exception of a great stretch in May, Pettitte has been awful.
Pettitte's stats since June 1st (13 starts):
79 IP 97 H 27 BB 5.35 ERA 1.57 WHIP
In fact, if you look at Pettitte's peripheral numbers overall, he has been extremely lucky. He is putting a lot of baserunners on. In many ways he has been worse than Wakefield, who has a lower WHIP and BAA.
Dice-K's stats since June 1st (12 starts):
78.1 IP 65 H 31 BB 2.64 ERA 1.23 WHIP
These guys aren't even close!
cblesz is right. Manny has hit into a lot of double-plays this year. He is currently second in the AL, hitting into 17 so far.
Here are a couple of other DP machines: Jorge Posada (16) and Derek Jeter (15). Lowell and Ortiz each have grounded into 13. A-Rod, the possible MVP, has hit into 12 DPs.
by Drugs Delaney on Aug 8, 2007 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
Papi (22 G) .337 AVG/.422 OBP/.573 SLG
Manny (26 G) .340 AVG/.404 OBP/.660 SLG
Nice stats. However, I would be curious to see the RBI's and home runs. Of which, they are paid to do and expected to do. I just don't see them being clutch this year, that's all.
I do disagree with you in regard to Pettitte, though. I think he has pitched well, with the exception of a couple of blow ups, similar to Dice. Obviously, in the long run I want Dice, but this year I think it is a toss up.
by cblesz on Aug 8, 2007 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
Snyder has been money all season. I'd like to see Tito give him more responsibility.
Tavarez is junk. DFA him and bring back Lopez.
Timlin is a very good "worst guy in the bullpen."
I have confidence in MDC. He came in last night with men on base, so he had to hits his spots, and he gave up a couple fluky hits. But he's been excellent. If Joba is as good for the Yanks as MDC has been for us, they'll be ecstatic.
Gagne.
by tommy.otm on Aug 8, 2007 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
Papi has 5 Hrs, 16 RBI. And he missed four or five games with that shoulder thing.
by tommy.otm on Aug 8, 2007 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
As for Pettitte, he is a bum. He has been extremely lucky. Based on his peripherals, he should have an ERA over 5.00. In fact, Pettitte's ERA was 2.96 at the end of May. Since the end of May, he has pitched against 2 contending teams: Boston and Anaheim. He hasn't fared well against them, averaging less than 5 innings.
9.1 IP 17 H 13 ER (12.54 ERA). If you add the other 3 games he pitched against the Sox and one against Seattle, he is 1-2 in 6 starts v. contenders. Pettitte v. contenders:
34.2 IP (less than 6 IP/start) 55 H 5.97 ERA 1.90 WHIP
by Drugs Delaney on Aug 8, 2007 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
which should have been the part for cblesz at the beginning.
and do not forget that our starters "take away" a lot of innings for the good pen so it is pretty much rested till now.
RL ip 309 12th in AL
Starters ip 697 3rd in AL
CHA and CLE better in both.
by OilCanBoyd on Aug 8, 2007 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
Youk vs. Phillips?
Dusty vs. Cano?
Coco vs. Damon?
Those seem clearly to face the Red Sox. I think the Yanks probably have clear advantages at 3B, SS, RF and 4th OF (Melky vs. WMP). DH, LF, and C are I think too close to call. (Please don't give me the line how Cano's been hotter than anything recently; they call them streaks because they end, and you're not going to see him swatting 4 out of 10 every series.) Yeah, the Yankees lineup is better. By a little.
On the more salient question of your sanity: I don't know how you can say win-loss record "means absolutely nothing" to the question of having to be lucky to get to the playoffs and still say you're not crazy. I don't get how you see no difference between Wang and Beckett (better ERA, almost twice as many Ks) or Petitte (less than 6 K/9) and Mr. Matsu (more than 9 K/9) and still say you're not crazy. I don't get how you ask when Schilling's been good (other than that one measly woulda-been-a-perfect-game-but-for-Lugo's-error)---did you not look up his line for April 14 against the Angels (8 IP, 0 ER), May 1 against OAK (7 IP, 2 ER, 7 K), Memorial Day over CLE (7 IP, 1 ER, 10 K)?---and still say you're not crazy. I don't get how you say the Yankees lineup scoring 10 runs a game is a good thing for them but somehow it's a cause to discount our offense, and still say you're not crazy. I don't get how our bullpen isn't really fantastic, because our 8th and 9th inning guys are so untouchable they shouldn't be counted, but you're not crazy.
Or rather, I don't get how you say you're not crazy and not expect us to laugh at you. Or at least wonder whether "cblesz" is really Dan Shaughnessy.
by Tony the pony on Aug 8, 2007 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
by Tony the pony on Aug 8, 2007 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Unlike yourself, ...
at least about the pitching this is not a true statement ;-)
(i do not like to make your work but if you say the bullpen is so much worse after the ASG then go figure it out and show me (i am interested in that too).
"Simply saying "We will be alright...all is well" is not going to win this team anything."
that is a true statement and the reason i put up some numbers for you.
you are talking about streaks all the time.
(this discussion is older than the game i think.)
a streak is a streak and not the norm and that's why you call it a streak.
so lets have a look at the "thoughtfull comments" you made:
Cocos arm IS much better than Damons. you don't think so?
there is no way to judge this "neutral" so we have to live with our different view about that.
you say let's have a look at the stats and in the next sentences you say Big Papi is hurting us?
excuse me that is wrong and UNFAIR and i will show you why:
OPS
2003 961
2004! 983
2005 1001
2006 1041
2007 992 (990 pre ASG/ 995 post ;-)
his slugging is down (foot hurt, lower body harmed, less power) his OBP + AVG is up (lifetime high!).
that and looking at him when he plays tells you that he knows how to handle the situation. he can't generate the power but he still knows to make contact and he uses his eyes.
for me it looks like he is a type of guy ho helps his team with the weapons he got right now and not the ones he wishes to have.
this is a very good thing to see and makes me respect ortiz even more.
now comes an argument which i think is partially right.
"we have ABSOLUTLEY NO CLUTCH HITTING."
i do not see it as hard as that but i think we might have a problem in the clutch.
btw, Papi not! besides hitting .143 with bases loaded (.351 lifetime now:-) there is not one stat showing that he has problems when it counts.
Papi is not hurting the Sox at all
you did not look it up i know.
(and if A-Rod would have a normal season i still would pick Papi over him. damned i just do it anyway, so it's Papi for A-Rod.
it is not an easy task to pick someone from the Red Sox lineup cause nobody besides Manny and Ortiz HAS A STATIC POSITION in the lineup.)
Manny is not hitting to his average with men on, true. he has a bad season (for Manny) so far and we all have to wait if it works out for us in the end or not.
make a suggestion what to do instead of waiting (change with Ortiz?).
the Sox are (at least) in the middle of the pack in many stats related to clutch situations:
OPS AL-Rank
ScPos 824 2nd
ScPos/2 Out 837 2nd
Close & Late 711 7th (R 63. we are last!)
Bases Loaded 874 4th
Runners on 818 3rd
Inning 7+ 748 2nd
looks not like "ABSOLUTLEY NO CLUTCH HITTING" to me.
what i miss right now is a bit of a fighting spirit. maybe it is because there just was no need for it till now. that will change in sept. and oct. so i would like to see if these guys be able to fight together.
that is why i would stop changing the team so much and give the players roles (especially in the lineuppositions) to get used to.
but i am not too concerned yet.
the "spirit" will come with the challenges that come (so it might be a good thing if the series vs the MFY has some more meaning in the end).
"Best record in baseball? Big deal. Means absolutely nothing."
when you are in the AL-East and there are already 113 games played in the season it means a lot.
it means that you have a nasty baseball team which kicks asses all season long.
at last i will give you some specific answers to your questions...
"Who as a hitter on the Sox would you take right now before someone in the Yankee lineup?"
Ortiz DH before Damon/Giambi DH.
"Do we have pitching coach problems?"
NO WE DO NOT! (look up the stats plz some i offered to you already.)
"What about batting coach?"
possible. i do not know much about Magadan as a batting coach but i am not too much impressed with the offense this year. i mean Lugo just can't hit but why Drew is so bad? Crisp is not real crispy and a lot of the players had bad starts (what a lot of other players had this year partially because of the crazy weather not to forget.).
i would like to have Wade Boggs as Sox hitting coach but maybe magadan is not bad too.
"You all mean to tell me that on paper, up and down the lineup, you are comfortable with this team?"
for me it is exactly like that. i have to admit that i can not remamber when was the last time i looked at the roster of the Sox and the standings and felt so comfortable like right now.
"You honestly turn on the game or go to Fenway and have confidence every night?"
100 %! never had more.
just that you understand me right:
THIS IS THE YEAR !
ps:
and that might be the only reason why the Gagne trade is good in the end.
by OilCanBoyd on Aug 8, 2007 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: "Unlike yourself, ...
by cblesz on Aug 8, 2007 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: "Unlike yourself, ...
i said you are a "normal sox fan" or joe Morgan ; -)
by OilCanBoyd on Aug 8, 2007 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
I admit to being a fair-weather Sox fan! Essentially baseball bores me, but I have an almost ingrained desire to see the Red Sox win even though my childhood in the 1950s with the likes of Jackie Jensen and Don Button (?sp) taught me that was unlikely. Still when I see a chance for the Sox to do well, I come alive.
I don't now live in Newe England so I bought that MLB package to be able to see the Sox in their winning ways. Lately, I am thinking that was a mistake because this team is beginning to look like the Red Sox crap of old.
You have no right to say that if you do not support the Sox get off the bandwagon. That is brainless talk. Some of us want accountability from the Sox management for the big bucks they are making. Produce good teams or lose support as you should and as almost all other teams with adequate infrastructure (decent staduim) do.
Anyway, for all you blinded Red Sox bandwagon types, look at me (and others) as barometers for a winning atmosphere. If we are hyped-up on the team, chances are things are good. If we turn against them in our objective (yes objective) assessment, take it as a barometric indicator of real trouble. The original author had it exactly correct, IMO! This team is going nowhere!
by NG on Aug 8, 2007 2:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
by Tony the pony on Aug 8, 2007 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
by NG on Aug 8, 2007 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
by B Cap on Aug 8, 2007 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
by cblesz on Aug 8, 2007 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
by Tony the pony on Aug 8, 2007 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
by tommy.otm on Aug 8, 2007 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
1-First of all, we have NOT beaten up on teams that suck.
2-You can take the Yanks starting pitching if you like. But nonetheless, even if they are a little worse than ours, their offense makes up for it. And the stats do not lie. Our SP is not all that much better.
3-I am talking about THIS SEASON, genius. I do not care about ARod next year or how much cash we have.
4-Sox are bored? This blatantly shows your idiocy. A championship caliber team does not get bored, they finish what they started. Poor situational hitting and bad defense is a result of boredom? As you suggest, I will not argue with someone who comes up with this type of argument.
5-The Gagne trade means nothing if we cannot get to him in the eight with a lead, genius.
6-I am surely a Sox fan. But, I am a realistic Sox fan unlike yourself. Next time, when you formulate a response to my questions, you may want to wait until recess is over an address the issues that were brought up. Unlike yourself, I took the time to put together thoughful comments and opinions. Not simply call someone names and avoid the questions.
Once again, let me speak slowly. Simply saying "We will be alright...all is well" is not going to win this team anything.
by cblesz on Aug 8, 2007 2:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
1- We didn't just take 2 out of 3 from Seattle on their home turf.
2- You've hardly backed up anything you've said with actual stats.
5- Why the hell did you make your argument about the bullpen, then?
6- Being childish in your comments ["your stupidity amazes...", "you may want to wait until recess is over..."] is NOT thoughtful, nor did it take you much time to come up with.
You want us to sit back and wait for the Sox to crash like its inevitable? I'll ask YOU to sit back and wait for the MFY to hit the wall against teams like Cleveland, Anaheim and Detriot. And that's just August.
by panzermensch on Aug 9, 2007 6:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A Sonnanstine?!?!??!
#1
J Shields - 2X
A Sonnanstine
E Jackson
J Towers - 2X
R Halladay
S Marcum
J Hammel
M DeSalvo
O Perez - 2X
S Elarton
G Meche - 2X
D Cabrera
J Contreras
J Danks
J Garland
K Davies
J Litsch
#2
Kazmir
D McGowan
E Jackson
J De La Rosa
J Guthrie
B Burres
List #1 are the starting pitchers the Yanks have beaten since the All Star Break. The ONLY GOOD PITCHER IN LIST #1 is Halladay, and the Yanks won that game 3-2 in extra innings when Accardo balked hom the winning run. As for the rest of those guys, eh. Meche or Garland could be our fifth starters.
List #2 are the guys they have lost against. Kazmir. McGowan. J Guthrie. Those guys are good pitchers, and they shut the Yanks down.
You know who the 2007 Yanks remind me of? The all hit no pitch Red Sox of old. And we all remember what our smug Yankee fan friends would say every time our vaunted offense would lose to them - in a contest of good pitching vs. good hitting, pitching wins every time.
The Yanks have been eating up the good hitting vs. bad pitching contest, let's see how they do going forward.
by tommy.otm on Aug 8, 2007 2:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: A Sonnanstine?!?!??!
by cblesz on Aug 8, 2007 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: A Sonnanstine?!?!??!
Halladay
McGowan
Bannister
Contreras
J Danks
J Garland
J Westbrook
Sabathia
C Lee
J Hammel
J Shields
Traschel
J Guthrie
J Washburn
M Batista
#2
Marcum (vs. Tavarez)
J Litsch (f'n 2-1)
J Gobble
O Perez (vs. Tavarez)
J Vasquez
F Carmona
Kazmir
Bedard
H Ramirez
Jered Weaver
J Saunders
List one being the starters we have beaten, list 2 those we have lost to. We're 15-11 since the All Star break, and we've been playing some not-good baseball and facing Bedard, Carmona, Guthrie (who in all objectivity might be the ROY frontunner), Sabathia, Kazmir, and McGowan.
by tommy.otm on Aug 8, 2007 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: A Sonnanstine?!?!??!
by cblesz on Aug 8, 2007 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: A Sonnanstine?!?!??!
3.64 ERA 1.09 WHIP 138 K 150.2 IP
by Realistic on Aug 8, 2007 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: A Sonnanstine?!?!??!
by tommy.otm on Aug 8, 2007 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: A Sonnanstine?!?!??!
by Allen Chace on Aug 8, 2007 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: A Sonnanstine?!?!??!
by Allen Chace on Aug 8, 2007 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: A Sonnanstine?!?!??!
by tommy.otm on Aug 8, 2007 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: A Sonnanstine?!?!??!
by Allen Chace on Aug 8, 2007 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
You know nothing about me. So if you think you can have an intelligent conversation, by all means respnd. If not, don't read anymore of the comments and do not respond.
Wait. Sorry. You told everyone else to ignore me. I guess you are the King. Judging by your intelligence level...
by cblesz on Aug 8, 2007 2:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
And you're really going to have to explain "Never once did I not say I do not cheer for the Sox" to me....
by Tony the pony on Aug 8, 2007 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
by cblesz on Aug 8, 2007 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
by tommy.otm on Aug 8, 2007 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
by NG on Aug 8, 2007 2:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
by Tony the pony on Aug 8, 2007 2:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
NG - where is the brain dead attitude?
by cblesz on Aug 8, 2007 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
by Tony the pony on Aug 8, 2007 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
Hey, you guys can put your hands over your eyes and think all is well. But, I don't see it that way. I am simply stating that this team, RIGT NOW is not winning the World Series.
by cblesz on Aug 8, 2007 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
Drew has been a huge disappointment. Lugo was extremely unlucky (BABIP) earlier in the season and has begun to come around. Wake, Schill, Lester have me reaching for the Pepto almost every time out. The bullpen is awesome, our offense needs to get them leads to protect. Until then, we'll continue to see more of J-Tav-Snydes than we might like.
I'm worried as well. I'm not sure anyone shouldn't be worried. The Tigers rotation is not what it was and their bullpen is absolutely in shambles. I'm not convinced they're going to be able to do their part.
by Allen Chace on Aug 8, 2007 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
Lugo has actually been respectable since the AS break - .346 OBP, .746 OPS. Sure his error last night sucked, but he's won a few games with his bat recently.
by tommy.otm on Aug 8, 2007 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
by cblesz on Aug 8, 2007 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
by NG on Aug 8, 2007 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
by cblesz on Aug 8, 2007 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
by Allen Chace on Aug 8, 2007 3:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
moronsRyou
Exactly. And after a month long cakewalk the Yanks are STILL five games back. The Sox STILL have the biggest lead in baseball. And now we head towards our cakewalk and y'all head for the meatgrinder.
by tommy.otm on Aug 8, 2007 3:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: moronsRyou
Whatever dude. You're the one showing up here to brag about being 5 games back. I love the internal conflict in Yankee fans, like a showdown between the giddiness to actually get back into the horse race versus the urge to suppress said giddiness because showing said giddiness would somehow betray weakness and a loser mentality.
"dill hole"
What does that even mean? It wasn't set aside by any punctuation, it just kind of sits awkwardly at the end of a rambling sequence of words. Almost like it was typed involuntarily, like you were thinking back on the glory days of your childhood and it just came out. Are we witnessing the tip of the iceberg in regards to your suppressed traumas? Did Scott Brosius touch you in a dirty place? It's okay, this is a safe space. There there. It's not your fault.
by tommy.otm on Aug 8, 2007 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
by cblesz on Aug 8, 2007 3:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
by tommy.otm on Aug 8, 2007 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I refuse to read this whole thread.
- We are going to the post-season
- The Yankees are going to the post-season
- Who knows what will happen in the post-season?
by britsoxfan on Aug 8, 2007 3:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: I refuse to read this whole thread.
by Allen Chace on Aug 8, 2007 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: I refuse to read this whole thread.
Hopefully before the Yanks show up...
by tommy.otm on Aug 8, 2007 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: I refuse to read this whole thread.
by tommy.otm on Aug 8, 2007 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: I refuse to read this whole thread.
by britsoxfan on Aug 8, 2007 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
by britsoxfan on Aug 8, 2007 4:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by Drugs Delaney on Aug 8, 2007 4:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by britsoxfan on Aug 8, 2007 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by cblesz on Aug 8, 2007 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Admins, please ban this racist zombie!
by RSNexile on Aug 8, 2007 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!
Too funny.
by tommy.otm on Aug 8, 2007 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
by cblesz on Aug 8, 2007 4:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
SECURITY!!!!
by tommy.otm on Aug 8, 2007 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
SECURITY!!!
by tommy.otm on Aug 8, 2007 4:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: SECURITY!!!
by Realistic on Aug 8, 2007 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: SECURITY!!!
by Drugs Delaney on Aug 8, 2007 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: SECURITY!!!
by tommy.otm on Aug 8, 2007 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: SECURITY!!!
by britsoxfan on Aug 8, 2007 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: SECURITY!!!
by tommy.otm on Aug 8, 2007 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: SECURITY!!!
by Realistic on Aug 8, 2007 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: SECURITY!!!
by tommy.otm on Aug 8, 2007 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
(crickets)
by tommy.otm on Aug 8, 2007 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
(you're still a moron though)
by tommy.otm on Aug 8, 2007 4:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
by gnick55 on Aug 8, 2007 5:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sorry.
by tommy.otm on Aug 8, 2007 5:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
by RSNexile on Aug 8, 2007 9:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Red Sox are going nowhere [Promoted Diary]
by fishfarmr on Aug 9, 2007 12:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Clutch hitting and the post-season
This year, the Sox are 5th in the AL in BA in "close and late" situations. Here's a comparison between Boston and the MFY in various "clutch" situations:
"Close and Late":
MFY: (541 AB) 10 HR .264 AVG/.339 OBP/.373 SLG (.712 OPS)
Sox: (519 AB) 9 HR .256 AVG/.339 OBP/.380 SLG (.719 OPS)
The Mariners have the best stats in this category.
Runners in Scoring Position:
MFY: (1149 AB) 32 HR .288 AVG/.371 OBP/.438 SLG (.809 OPS)
Sox: (1062 AB) 32 HR .275 AVG/.376 OBP/.448 SLG (.824 OPS)
Runners in scoring position, 2 out:
MFY: (518 AB) 17 HR .266 AVG/.355 OBP/.419 SLG (.774 OPS)
Sox: (512 AB) 16 HR .266 AVG/.390 OBP/.443 SLG (.833 OPS)
I could be wrong, but maybe the MFY lack of clutch hitting and pitching keeps them from making the playoffs or makes them a first round exit (like past years). Then again, maybe the Sox' good offense and superior pitching makes this a very interesting October. It's too early to tell.
by Drugs Delaney on Aug 9, 2007 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

by cblesz on 


















