Sox Mid-Season Report Cards: Rotation.
- Ace No. 1, Josh Beckett.
What can I say about our man Becks? He's been everything we thought we were getting last year. According to the ever/dubiously-popular FIP (What the F is this?), he's been the best in the AL this season, and third best in the ML behind Jake Peavy and Chris Young. No matter how you slice it, he's put himself in elite company. Let's hope those avulsions that caused us such revulsion are a thing of the past. (Good god that was clever.) A
- Ace No. 2, Daisuke Matsuzaka.
There were some (including me), who thought Matsuzaka's first season in the Majors would be one completely of transition. Kind of a "temper your expectations boys, a 4.50 ERA on the season with a few complete butt-kickings would be a great sign". He's gone far beyond that, pairing with Josh Beckett to deliver on the promise of two young aces with the ability to rack up the Ks. He's 6th in the Majors in K/G, and he's been walking a lot less batters recently. If his second-half is more like his last several starts before the Tiger HR-binge, we're probably looking at the strongest of 3 RoY candidates on this team. B
- Man that Almost No-No Was Nice, Curt Schilling.
Ah, Curtalicious. It seems so long since we've seen you. His stats this season have neither been particularly encouraging or discouraging. The 1.36 WHIP doesn't look too pretty, but his 4.05 FIP shows that he personally has done a decent job at minimizing the damage. If he comes back this same pitcher, he'll be more than acceptable as the #3 starter (while acknowledging that all these rankings are useless anyway), but we need to (and are) now looking at Daisuke and Josh as the stoppers in the rotation. C
- Love Ya Pal, But Could You Find a Caddy Who Hits?, Tim Wakefield.
Ready for this? I, an unabashed Wakefield-supporter in all things, am ready for him to retire. And this isn't (just) because of his aforementioned hitting-challenged caddy. I'm talking about a line-drive rate that has jumped since just last season (16+% - 22+%), and the fact that his ERA SHOULD be about half a run higher than it is. His walk-rate has also been climbing the last few years. I'm not ready to bet against him (as we all know, the knuckleball is tough to predict, even/especially for the wielder), but the tide may be turning. C-
- This Plan Is So Crazy It Just Might Work, Julian Tavarez.
We entered the season with possibly equal amounts of excitement and trepidation at the thought of Julian Tavarez, Red Sox 5th starter. I'd say we've been delivered both. He's allowed a lot of hits (and this has never been his strong suit), and has allowed almost 1 1/2 baserunners per IP. In the same token, the sinking action on his fastball probably means that his low LD rate (15.7%) isn't neccessarily a fluke, and he's been entertaining on the mound. We may be calling for his head if he doesn't improve on his recent results, but the term "serviceable 5th starter" would probably just make him feel insulted. C+
- "This is just a temp gig." "Temp gig?" "Temporary gig.", Kason Gabbard.
Walk rate. Walk rate. WALK RATE. Kason Gabbard walks entirely too many batters. 18 hits and 17 Ks in 20 1/3 IP. These are excellent numbers from a AAA callup. 13 BBs in the same amount of time does not bode so well. The good news is that his walk numbers in the Minors were definitely better, so hopefully it's jitters and he'll move on from it soon. I, Incomplete
- Devern Hansack had only one start, so I'm not going to analyze his big-league results. However, should something happen and the Sox need a spot starter, he has gotten back on track in AAA. As of this writing, he has 87 Ks in 90 IP, along with a 1.13 WHIP. However, a few great starts in AAA from new callup Clay Buchholz could push Hansack further down that particular chart.
Up Next: Bullpen Report Cards, Immediately Following this Post! (probably mid-late morningish, CDT) Then I'm going to take a bit of a break for the ASG and finish up Lineup/Bench and an Overall Report Card, probably Wednesday afternoon, or Randy might beat me to it.
[editor's note, by Allen Chace]Grades have been changed (specifically Beckett's which kind of started the dominoes) to reflect the good arguments on the part of RSNexile.
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15 comments
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Re: Sox Mid-Season Report Cards: Rotation.
by RSNexile on Jul 10, 2007 5:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sox Mid-Season Report Cards: Rotation.
by Allen Chace on Jul 11, 2007 4:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sox Mid-Season Report Cards: Rotation.
But I won't overvalue FIP -- by the same token, look at Lugo. His BABIP is .215 this year, a full 100 points lower than his career average. Clearly some of that is because he's hitting more grounders (53.3%) and fewer liners (14.5%) than his career averages (48.9% and 19.4%), but he's also clearly been very unlucky. But he's also walking more and striking out less than his career averages. Accordingly, it's likely that his numbers will improve significantly in the second half of the season. But would you give him anything higher than a D for his results thus far?
by RSNexile on Jul 11, 2007 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sox Mid-Season Report Cards: Rotation.
I feel like, especially with the walk rate, Beckett has shown himself to be very much among the elite. I don't see how you can't take what should at least somewhat into account.
I might be distorting your point with this next metaphor, but is it essentially like me giving the smart kid who turns in B work an A rather than a B? Unless this has in fact not gotten your point, then I would say that Beckett has been giving an A+ effort/technique/approach and has been rewarded with A and B+ results.
And really, I'm kind of dreading writing about Julio Lugo for this. Part of me wants to give him like a B- because of all the points you've made, and then obviously the poor poor poor poor poor batting average make me want to give him a much lower letter, maybe a V or a W.
by Allen Chace on Jul 11, 2007 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sox Mid-Season Report Cards: Rotation.
is it essentially like me giving the smart kid who turns in B work an A rather than a B?
...is exactly the point. When one of my students works his/her butt off but the results aren't A quality, s/he isn't going to get an A. That's how it should be. For an A+, all his numbers should be Cy Young quality, and his ERA just isn't there right now. I'll grant you that Beckett's effort has been A+ quality, but his results aren't. He gets an A from me; if he can bring his ERA more in line with his FIP while keeping his other numbers where they are, he still has a shot at an A+ for the full season.
And for the record, because I believe wins are probably the second worst way to judge a pitcher's quality (after saves), I'd say the same if all his other numbers were identical but his record was 2-12.
Ultimately, though, if Lugo doesn't deserve grade inflation because the numbers just aren't there, neither does Beckett. In fact, as I always tell my students, grade inflation is worse for those who perform well because it ultimately devalues their efforts.
by RSNexile on Jul 11, 2007 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sox Mid-Season Report Cards: Rotation.
He gets an A from me; if he can bring his ERA more in line with his FIP while keeping his other numbers where they are, he still has a shot at an A+ for the full season.
But we've already established, in my opinion, that he's been the victim of a small amount of poor luck, and that some of these things are outside a pitcher's control. What Beckett can control (BB/9, K/BB, K/9) has proven him to be an exceptional pitcher this season.
Maybe I just don't want to go back and change ALL of them. If I change Beckett to an A, I can't give semi walk-happy Daisuke an A as well.
by Allen Chace on Jul 11, 2007 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sox Mid-Season Report Cards: Rotation.
What can I say? I'm a social scientist and a teacher. Consistency matters to me. And speaking of consistency, 10 quality starts out of 16 doesn't cut it, either. Those aren't Cy Young numbers, and that's what you need for an A+.
by RSNexile on Jul 11, 2007 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sox Mid-Season Report Cards: Rotation.
I think we keep either Schill or Wake but not both, simply because both are aging and loosing effectivness.
With that in mind:
- Becket
- Matsuzaka
- Schilling/Wakefield
- Lester?
- Buccholz?
by Schulz on Jul 10, 2007 6:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sox Mid-Season Report Cards: Rotation.
by britsoxfan on Jul 10, 2007 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sox Mid-Season Report Cards: Rotation.
by RSNexile on Jul 10, 2007 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sox Mid-Season Report Cards: Rotation.
by britsoxfan on Jul 11, 2007 3:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sox Mid-Season Report Cards: Rotation.
by B Cap on Jul 10, 2007 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sox Mid-Season Report Cards: Rotation.
by RSNexile on Jul 10, 2007 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dice-K
In short, I think he's the iPhone of the bullpen. Overpriced for a lot of flash and a substance level that is probably just par.
My grade: B.
by sdkramer.otm on Jul 11, 2007 9:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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