On The Rocks. (But only because it was obvious.)

by Allen Chace on Jun 12, 2007 3:59 AM EDT in Open Thread

The Rockies could best be described as a good offensive team in a state of "Why the hell did we extend this manager?" Let's just say that while not the worst possible combination (this award would go to a Bill Bavasi-Dusty Baker team), I don't know that Dan O'Dowd and Clint Hurdle are the guys to turn this team into a playoff contender/winner. They did have the sense to rid themselves of Steve Finley, however.

You might recall that there was a dubious flirtation with one Todd Helton as a possible acquisition before the season started. You'd have to say that it worked out for all parties. Helton has hit well in Colorado, while neither player he would have replaced in the lineup (namely, Youkilis or Lowell) have given the Sox reason to question the non-trade.

Offense.

1B: Todd Helton. 147 OPS+
Helton has been every bit as good as Dan O'Dowd attempted to convince Theo he was, especially by getting above a .500 SLG again. Helton vs. Wakefield: 0/1; Helton vs. Schilling: 18/52, 4 BB, 6 2B, 5 HR; Helton vs. Beckett: 3/10, 3 BB, 2B, HR.
2B: Kaz Matsui. 115 OPS+
In a surprise to Mets' fans everywhere, Matsui has been a valuable asset to the Rockies this season. Matsui vs. Beckett: 2/8, 3 K.
SS: Troy Tulowitzki. 86 OPS+
The rookie has struggled to find his place at the plate this season, though he did turn a nifty defensive trick earlier this season...
3B: Garrett Atkins. 77 OPS+
Atkins hasn't been doing a whole lot of hitting thusfar, and may not hold off Ian Stewart for long. Atkins vs. Beckett: 3/7, BB, HBP.
LF: Matt Holliday. 150 OPS+
Ladies and gentlemen, commence the pointless drooling. We can't have him. His home/road splits over the last two seasons aren't even too ridiculous. Holliday vs. Beckett: 4/11, 3B, 2 K, HBP.
CF: Willy Taveras. 94 OPS+
Statistically speaking, one of the better CFs in baseball last season on defense. On offense. Well. At least this season he has the BA to drive that OBP into the "kind of acceptable for a leadoff hitter" range. Oh yeah. Speed. Taveras vs. Beckett: 1/2, K.
RF: Brad Hawpe. 133 OPS+
If I were previewing the Red Sox 5-6 years ago, I might've been able to title this entry "Trot Nixon" and no one would've known the difference. Hawpe has serious platoon splits and an excellent arm in the outfield. Hawpe vs. Beckett: 1/6, 2 K.
C: Yorvit Torrealba.-Chris Iannetta. 54 OPS+;67 OPS+
...let's just put it this way. The Rockies' backstops would probably be batting #1/#2 in the Sox lineup. Torrealba vs. Schilling: 5/10, 2 2B; Torrealba vs. Beckett: 3/7.
Bench: Jamey Carroll-Jeff Baker-Ryan Spilborghs-Sean Barker
Carroll has "hit" to the tune of a whopping 36 OPS+...Baker backs up all 4 corners and may see DH time...Spilborghs has mashed in a large (40 AB) sample size...Barker's only PA thusfar ended in a HBP...

Starters.

Game 1: Aaron Cook.
Cook has been a LAIM-er for the Rocks this season, putting up a 99 ERA+ while averaging almost 6 2/3 IP per start. LHHs have put up an .831 OPS against him in his career. Don't be surprised if Hinske or Cora are worked into the lineup. His WHIP is actually a bit below last season, and his BABIP is a fairly normal .280. Drew: 4/8, 2B, 3B, HR, BB. Lowell: 2/3, BB. Tek: 2 PAs, 2 BB. Of course, this will be a Belli' game.
Game 2: Josh Fogg.
...has been pretty bad this season. A 1.619 WHIP has led to a 1-5 record and a 5.06 ERA. Someone should have sold high on him a long time ago, but there was no "high" in which to do so. Fogg is also disproportionately susceptible to LHHs (.881 OPS). Cora: 5/9, 2B, HR, BB. Drew: 4/18, 2B, 2 HR, 4 BB. WMP:, 2/3, 2 2B, BB.
Game 3: Jeff Francis.
...is the best homegrown Rockies starter since...anyway. Francis is pretty good at keeping the ball in the park (18 HRs in 199 IP last season), especially considering where he pitches half of his games. Francis is obviously pretty tough on LHHs, holding them to a .695 OPS. Hold your surprise if Drew or Papi sit this one out. Drew: 3/7. Crisp: 1/4, 2B.

Okay. Not really sure how this series is going to go. Just based on the numbers (and Rockies' players EXTREME unfamiliarity with Tim Wakefield), I would guess we win Game 1 and 2. 3 could be an excellent pitchers' duel, though several Rockies have good numbers against Josh Beckett. A sweep is possible, but I don't think the Rockies' hitters will make it easy on us.

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Re: On The Rocks. (But only because it was obvious

Atkins had a slow start, but he's been getting back on track lately (Last 10 games: 8 R, 3 RBI, .314 BA, .429 OBP), considering is All-star numbers last year, I think they're pretty committed to him as their 3B for some time.

by Realistic on Jun 12, 2007 9:44 AM EDT reply actions

Re: On The Rocks. (But only because it was obvious

IIRC, and hopefully someone more familiar with the Rockies will either comment or e-mail to correct me, but Stewart is more highly regarded in terms of offense and (especially) defense. Had they traded Helton somewhere, I believe their LT plan had Atkins at 1B and Stewart at 3B.

What I don't understand is why the Rockies seem to end up with a lot of talent hitting-wise in drafts, and don't seem to turn up with as much pitching. FA hitters should WANT to play in Colorado, and understandably, FA pitchers are more reluctant. I'd think you'd try to draft mostly pitchers and just wait for the borderline stars/all-stars to come in to pump their hitting stats up. And maybe they have done that, and just have struck out on their pitching prospects. I don't know.

"Interesting. No wait, the other thing. Tedious." -Bender Bending Rodriguez.

by Allen Chace on Jun 12, 2007 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: On The Rocks. (But only because it was obvious

One plan would have been to move Atkins over to first, but Jeff Baker was also a possibility to take over first base. The Rockies also have Joe Koshansky, who is in a similar situation to Ryan Shealy, with the Sky Sox. It wasn't a given that Atkins would move back to first base.

Now, until lately, Stewart's lack of power in the minors was a cause for concern with a few people. But he's had five homers in his last five games, so I think those people will come around once he settles into a normal rhythm. Unless he goes on a monster tear, Stewart won't replace Atkins, but he should get a few starts in September (and maybe in the outfield?). As much as Atkins has struggled, I don't see anyway in which he loses his job this season.

And Stewart's a better defender than Atkins, as you say.

Purple Row

by Russ Oates on Jun 12, 2007 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: On The Rocks. (But only because it was obvious

Thanks for the corrections. I wasn't sure if the Rockies saw Baker as a possible starter or not. If Atkins begins to hit, it would seem like the Rockies would continue to have an embarassment of corner IF/OF riches. (Stewart/Holliday/Hawpe/Atkins/Koshansky/Helton/Baker).

We'll just take Koshansky off your hands...:)

"Interesting. No wait, the other thing. Tedious." -Bender Bending Rodriguez.

by Allen Chace on Jun 12, 2007 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: On The Rocks. (But only because it was obvious

Excellent preview, Allen. Thank you.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jun 12, 2007 12:46 PM EDT reply actions