The Red Sox best deal for Santana still a mystery

by SoxDevil on Dec 5, 2007 10:23 AM EST in News

Contrary to recent rumors, The Herald is reporting that the Red Sox have told Ryan Kalish's agent that his client's name never came up in talks with the Twins, even though he was rumored for most of the day to be in Boston's new 5-for-1 proposal. That begs the question of who the 5th player might be (if anyone). I, for one, hope it isn't Lars Anderson (our only legitimate power-hitting project).

The Twins are reported to be still mulling over a 3-4 player package including Ellsbury or a 4-5 player package including Lester. Reports vary over the number and names of players included, though Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson have been universally mentioned.

The waiting continues...

Tweet Comment 43 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

My Prediction

I predict the Angels get Santana today, since they lost out on the Miggy deal. The Angels front office sucks, Miggy was pefect fit for them. They sit on these prospects and never win anything.

by Matzushocka on Dec 5, 2007 10:28 AM EST reply actions

Re: My Prediction

Obviously they very well still could, but up to now the Angels haven't made any offer for Santana

by Realistic on Dec 5, 2007 10:41 AM EST up reply actions

FIVE players?!?

I think trade negotiations have jumped the shark.

What would Dogbert do?

by panzermensch on Dec 5, 2007 10:42 AM EST reply actions

Re: The Red Sox best deal for Santana still a myst

I gotta say, I like how Theo has handled it so far, unlike a certain "Hank". I liked how be basically used how the Yanks pissed off the Twins and turned it to his advantage, basically saying "hey, take as long as you want. There's no rush." which in turn seems to have taken the Yanks out of contention, though if they were willing to up their offer I'm sure they would be right back in it.

by Realistic on Dec 5, 2007 10:56 AM EST reply actions

Re: The Red Sox best deal for Santana still a myst

I bet the Twins reapproach the Yanks before consummating the deal.

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Dec 5, 2007 11:02 AM EST up reply actions

Re: The Red Sox best deal for Santana still a myst

So apparently Cashman "never wanted to do the Santana deal in the first place" (via Roto) and the reason was that he didn't want to add to the MFY's payroll any more than he already had in signing Jorge and Rivera for more than they're worth. Plus, the article points out that after '08 they drop $80 million in payroll. So it looks like what this comes down to is Cashman would rather have Hughes than Santana.

He's no Theo, that's for damn sure.

If we do this deal our starting five are going to have ERAs of something like 3/3/3.5/3.8/3.8, and the MFY are countering that with three pitchers who have never thrown more than 165 innings in a season.

by B VT on Dec 5, 2007 11:12 AM EST reply actions

Re: The Red Sox best deal for Santana still a myst

The Yankees may have a lower payroll, but their starting pitching is still suspect, and their pitching staff has some serious holes. I think Petite is okay, but not a staff ace. Mussina has been shown sign of having little to no strong pitches anymore. Wang is still the ace of the staff. Hughes is good, and I am impress by him, but I am just impress with Lester, I don't know Kennedy that well, and Chamberlain has control issues, and he reminds more of Goose Gossage than Ron Guidry. Chamberlain should be the bridge to Rivera, or what Girardi should do is make Chamberlain the closer and Rivera the bridge in the 8th Inning.

The Yankees have some serious problems in middle relief, and the Great Mariano is showing more and more that he is human instead of stats that are mythic. If his cutter lost the velocity, he should retire, and my guess is his cutter has lost a couple mph/kmh.

However, I am curious how Girardi will handle the pitching staff, and how he handles his bullpen.

The Yankees need some serious money either for minor league development for pitching or buy the best pitchers on the market in the future, like Santana, Haren and Sabathia.

by superferret on Dec 5, 2007 11:35 PM EST up reply actions

Arghhh

HOLY CRAP...can we end this already??? The anticipation is overwhelming....

by cblesz @ Over the Monster on Dec 5, 2007 11:18 AM EST reply actions

the longer it lasts the lesser i like it

if we would need an ace it MAYBE would make some sense to give all the jewels away for it.

what do you think is the price for Bedard (or Kazmir next year)?

almost the same (because of cost control?) or significant less then Santana (which is what i would imagine because Santana is already a proven ace).

but with the "cheap" pitchers (Bedar, Kazmir) you have the problem of other teams with low payrolls to fight off which have deep farm systems (the "market" for Santana is smaller cause only few teams could effort him anyway so to speak).

ALCS 2008 Game1 (at Fenway Park : )

NY Santana
vs
BO Beckett

sounds like a great game with advantage Red Sox to me.

by OilCanBoyd on Dec 5, 2007 11:25 AM EST reply actions

Re: The Red Sox best deal for Santana still a myst

Now this is just hilarious. A MFY fan posted a comment saying "It won't be long they will be calling our rivals the 'Botox'" (see link in my last post). Are you f-ing kidding me??? If this happens we've got Pap, Dice-K, Beckett and Delcarmen under 28, Youk and Santana at 29 and Buch, Scrappy and Ellsbury under 25, not to mention a farm system that certainly hasn't been depleted.

Wishful thinking, this dude has it.

by B VT on Dec 5, 2007 11:33 AM EST reply actions

dont like this

I don't like the reports that the Twins might not trade Santana now. I think if the MFY could get back into it, either soon or mid-year regardless of if Santana claims he wont waive his no trade clause. If Santana gets traded I hope its us, and hope its soon.

by Matzushocka on Dec 5, 2007 12:22 PM EST reply actions

Re: The Red Sox best deal for Santana still a myst

I could be completely wrong, but I get the impression that they like the Sox offer and are making "last calls" to teams out there to see if they can get some team out there to give in to a better offer. (i.e. "Hey Angels/Yanks/Dodgers/etc., we've been talking witht he Sox and are about to strike a deal, but we really like you and would love you to have him, so if you could just come up with a last best offer and we like it better, he's yours for the taking."). I have no basis for this impression, so don't quote me on it

by Realistic on Dec 5, 2007 12:41 PM EST reply actions

Let's slow down and think!

For what's worth, I think were giving away too much. Too many eggs in one basket. Santana is awesome no doubt, but can he do that much more than Lester. Just a year ago we were thinking that Lester could develop into something real speical. Has the thinking changed and is giving up four other quality players worth the little we gain? I question it? Let the yankees over spend and give up their young players. If that's what's Theo's doing, cool! I say Coco, Masteron, and Lowrie. Anything more is too much at this time and our current loaded staff.

by gosox on Dec 5, 2007 1:32 PM EST reply actions

Re: Let's slow down and think!

Although I am a Twins fan and obviously want the best deal, I can honestly say that no, you're not giving up too much.

After reading so many posts on so many boards that my eyes are bleeding, here's what I can tell you about Johan than no one else is really taking into account:

Since 2003, he has a 2.04 ERA against New York. He makes the Yanks wet themselves. That, purely for entertainment value, is awesome.
For fairly anecdotal information of how good he is, check out his inning totals. You know when he was last taken out in the middle of an inning? September 10, 2006. Not once, all last season, did he lose control in the middle of an inning so bad that he had to be pulled.
There seems to be concern that his arm's going to blow up, because of the number of innings he's pitching. Gardenhire has kept Johan on an incredibly strict pitch count -- I don't believe I've ever known him to go over 110, and I can count on one hand the number of times he's gone over 105. Even though he's a strikeout pitcher, he's incredibly efficient. Also, his strikeout totals are because his changeup looks exactly the same as his fastball -- not because he's got a filthy moving slider or because he's blowing it past them (though he can when asked). The changeup is not the sort of pitch to blow out an arm. And he's not spent one day on the DL. He's among the safest bets in the league.
Clubhouse presence. He loves teaching other people. Check out Carlos Silva's 2005, 2006, and 2007 numbers. Silva's a sinkerball pitcher who had knee surgery in the 2005 offseason. When he returned in 2006, he found his sinkerball wasn't sinking anymore, and promptly got slapped around. In the 2006 offseason, Johan taught Carlos some tips on a changeup, really worked with him. Silva bounced back (not to the tune of 2005, but way better than 2006). Santana has also mentored Francisco Liriano. The idea of having Johan around Clay Buchholz ought to make any Sox fan wet themselves.
Johan Santana is incredibly smart, and he doesn't get nearly enough credit for this. He researches his batters and half of the reason he's as successful as he is is because he outthinks them on the mound. I'd take a smart pitcher with okay stuff any day of the week over a dumb pitcher with smokin' stuff (see Ponson, Sidney). Santana has both the brawn and the brains. That's a rare combo.

It's possible the Sox feel the salary would cause them to lose out later (possible, but be honest, you guys can find the money) or that there's more advantage to the fan draw of homegrown guys (if so, why get Dice-K?) or that they simply don't need the pitching (possible, given the state of the rest of the AL East). But as far as the straight return? Santana's worth it.

Or Pohlad's heart could grow three sizes and the Twins could sign Santana for what he's worth. That would be good.

by CarrieICL on Dec 5, 2007 3:10 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Let's slow down and think!

I agree with most everything you wrote. With Johan the Sox will have a 1-2 punch that the Yankees, Tigers, Angels and Indians cannot match.

Plus with Johan in the locker room, he will fit in nicely with the Manny/Papi/Dice-K party time and he could help with our young staff.

Consider next year with Beckett as a role model, Schilling and Johan helping young guys like Buchholz become a great pitcher. If Buchholz could learn how to throw a change up like Johan, imagine his stuff.

94 fastball, 12-6 Curve and a knee buckling change up. Come on now.

by SoxAcumen on Dec 5, 2007 3:16 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Let's slow down and think!

"or that there's more advantage to the fan draw of homegrown guys (if so, why get Dice-K?)"

These aren't inconsistent. We didn't give up any homegrown talent to sign Dice.

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Dec 5, 2007 3:38 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Let's slow down and think!

Fair enough. But it does speak to the fact that the Sox don't seem to consider it overly necessary to have a certain percentage of their 40 man roster be homegrown. Otherwise, they could have stayed away from Dice-K, saved the money to make sure they can freely spend on home talent, and left more of an opening in the rotation for Buchholz and Lester, yes?

by CarrieICL on Dec 5, 2007 3:47 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Let's slow down and think!

Dice-K was brought in not only to pitch but bc he is a celebrity in Japan, a nation that loves baseball. He brought revenue in and also exposed the Japanese to Red Sox Nation.

Now the Sox are #1 in Japan, up from #23 before the Sox signed Dice-K.

by SoxAcumen on Dec 5, 2007 3:50 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Let's slow down and think!

I don't think there's a homegrown quote or anything like that. Rather, Theo et al have put a lot of effort into strengthening the organization from top to bottom, from the draft to the organizational philosophy towards pitch selection. In five years, the Sox system has gone from one of the worst to one of the best. And I'm sure Theo has become attached to many of the guys they've raised, such as Clay, Lester, Jacoby, Lowrie, Kalish, etc. I'm sure it's a little tough to package 5 of their most promising prospects for one guy, even if that one guy is Johan Santana.

Reading Cashman's remarks about the aborted trade, it sounds like he had/has some of the same misgivings.

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Dec 5, 2007 4:16 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Let's slow down and think!

I'm not sure it'd be wise for any team to commit to a % of homegrown players. The Giants are going to have a lot of homegrown players, particularly in that lineup. It's not going to end up being a good thing, I imagine.

by Allen Chace on Dec 5, 2007 4:17 PM EST up reply actions

you may be correct

then keep Johan

if you are not willing to pay Johan, then he isn't worth as much as you say

pay or deal

or don't

I hope you do not

Coco is worth a young catcher. Lester is good to keep

by jwp on Dec 5, 2007 4:35 PM EST up reply actions

Re: you may be correct

Given everything that's been said about the Twins' owner being stingy I don't think their willingness or lack thereof to pay Santana what's he's asking is any indication of his value.

by B VT on Dec 5, 2007 5:47 PM EST up reply actions

Re: you may be correct

Exactly. It's like being owned by C. Montgomery Burns.

Pohlad wouldn't pay to keep his own mother on life support. It means nothing about what Johan is worth.

by CarrieICL on Dec 5, 2007 5:51 PM EST up reply actions

Re: you may be correct

There are SO many bad owners in the MLB. These guys just want to rake in money. Marlins, Twins, Rockies all could compete every year with their markets.

These owners are the guys stopping Mark Cuban from buying the Cubs. They do not want owners who want to win and are willing to spend money.

by SoxAcumen on Dec 5, 2007 6:01 PM EST up reply actions

Re: you may be correct

I'm pretty sure Bud Selig has something to do with that last point as well.

by Allen Chace on Dec 5, 2007 6:02 PM EST up reply actions

Re: you may be correct

Yeah, Bud might have a heart attack if he must deal with Hank Steinbrenner and Mark Cuban in the same year.

LOL, I would love it.

by SoxAcumen on Dec 5, 2007 6:04 PM EST up reply actions

Re: you may be correct

Marlins and Jeff Loria are in a class of meanness and incompetence all by themselves.

Baseball is a labor intensive business with slim profit margins, so teams like the Twins need to keep their overhead align with revenue or else they are going to end up like Frank McCourt, basically struggling to meet the interest payments let alone loan payments.

Selig doesn't want a Bill Veeck type of owner like Cuban, who will rock the boat, be iconoclastic, and go against any MLB decision. He wants Bud Selig clones, wearing toupees, lying to the public, shutting up about Baseball Monopoly's powers, and sucking up to Jerry Reindorf. He also has a friend set up to buy the Cubs. Much like he railroaded Dolan from buying the Red Sox in 2001/2002, and got Henry and Werner's group bid accepted.

Even though I hate Bud Selig, The Henry Group has been the best owners of the Red Sox in its history.

by superferret on Dec 5, 2007 11:59 PM EST up reply actions

Re: you may be correct

Marlins get 30 million just from revenue sharing, they could afford to pay at least that in salaries.

If your mlb team does not spend what your NFL or NBA franchises pay in salaries, well, you just are not trying hard enough.

While I will sympathize with lets say a Royals owner or even the Twins( even though the tax payers just gave him a new stadium in 2010), I will not believe that the Marlins or the Orioles or the Giants cannot make enough money to pay players to compete. They are in big time markets, much larger than Boston.

I forget who brought this up, but one of the guys on ESPN was questioning the Marlins and many of the owners---his point was that with the advances in revenue and the revenue sharing going on currently, he felt the players were not getting what they deserved and many owners were collecting checks.

You can figure out for yourself which teams he meant, I am guessing Colorado, Florida, and San Fransico.

by SoxAcumen on Dec 6, 2007 2:54 AM EST up reply actions

Re: you may be correct

Allegedly the smallest market for a MLB team is Cincinnati, so it is important they have to a well managed club or a owner like Carl Lindner with deep pockets to cover cost overuns.

Boston may be a smaller market than the Bay Area and Miami, but they owned the regional market of New England with an iron fist. Much like how the Cubs became the dominant baseball team in Chicago, by packaging their games with WGN that makes most of the midwest Cubs territory in places like Iowa and Nebraska. Much like Braves try to reach out throughout the south and also try to market their reach to northern Florida.

The problem with the Giants is that they are battling for regional marketshare and brand marketing with their poorer cousins across the bay. They have a very well attended ballpark since it opened, an okay fanbase etc, but they need to reach out more throughout Northern California, much like WGN did for the Cubs and NESN does for the Red Sox.

The Marlins have gone out of their way in alienating Miami, Dade and Broward County with a passion, they fired pretty much all their staff when Loria took over in 2002, they have crappy relations with the Hispanic community, they have alienated the city leaders by their exorbitant demands on a public finance retractable dome stadium, they had threatened time and time again to move when their lease is up, etc. Loria and his son-in-law ie President of the Marlins also seemed to go on this bi-annual purges of the staff and do these mass firings that aren't the greatest thing for community relations.

The Marlins are just a badly run organization, and they just pocket as many other teams do the revenue sharing proceeds. If the Marlins lobbied for an open air ballpark on site of the Orange bowl, actually copy the Mets or the Dodgers community outreach programs, get a hispanic sports network going with the Marlins as the centerpiece, they could be really popular. Instead they rather go to a smaller market like San Antonio, or Portland Or, and stymie their growth.

by superferret on Dec 6, 2007 4:36 AM EST up reply actions

Re: you may be correct

I absolutely agree with you that there are very shitty owners out there, but at the same time I think we're a little spoiled. Boston itself may not be the biggest market, but there's a reason we can compete w/the MFY on salary if we choose to. Our ownership team has done right by the Sox, the city and most importantly, the fans, and it's paying off in spades. They've done a better job selling the Sox as a brand than Nike has at selling the swoosh as a logo (ok, but they're close).

Everything about the organization, from the way it's managed to the community outreach to the players they sign and build, everything is done well. Boston might not be the biggest market, but when you include New England and then that we're one of the most popular teams in Japan and the Dominican (ok, so less money there) and have a fan base that's literally coast to coast (we're consistently one or two in road attendance), the market starts to add up quick.

I mean, Theo's a friggin rock star in New England and RSN. Our GM! He's a bigger star than most players on most teams.

The Sox are run very, very right.

by B VT on Dec 6, 2007 10:51 AM EST up reply actions

Re: you may be correct

I agree with both of you guys, but I go to San Fran and Miami all the time on business, and coming from LA, I am shocked at how vast both cities are.

Honestly, with the tradition of the Giants, San Jose, the entire No. Cal being split with the A's, that includes Sacramento and the entire bay area, the Giants have plenty to work with. They could own the entire West Coast, outside of Seattle or So. Cal. Yes, they split it with the A's but this is a vast area that goes to places like Reno and Utah. Giants can pay the money to be in the hunt each year.

As for Miami, well I think both of you hit on the points. IMO, someone should buy the Marlins and move them to Las Vegas a city dying for a sports franchise. Maybe the Maloofs could buy them and then move both the Marlins and the Kings to Vegas. Then petition for an NFL expansion.

Vegas is a gold mine for a sports franchise, but you would have to get the Casinos to agree and that might be the sticking point.

by SoxAcumen on Dec 6, 2007 4:02 PM EST up reply actions

Re: you may be correct

Miami is a huge market, not only for South Florida, but for the baseball crazy nations throughout Latin America. Granted Miami weather in the summer is not conducive to regular schedule baseball games, I think that the Marlins best bet is a Spanish language Sports network that is broadcast throughout Latin America, given how many Latin Americans come to Miami, The Marlins could probably pull off a PNC or an AT&T(Giants) type of ballpark at the Orange Bowl site

I wouldn't go to Las Vegas, mainly they are going to compete with fan bases in Arizona and Southern California, besides they are also competing against the Casinos for customers, even with the enormous growth of Vegas. They would need to build a dome like in Arizona, because summers in Vegas are brutal, just brutal in a different way than the ones at Miami.

What Loria should do is sell the team, and get out of baseball, go back to his Art Gallery.

by superferret on Dec 6, 2007 6:23 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Let's slow down and think!

I liked the "Pohlad's heart could grow three sizes" comment. T'is the season!

(Rich bastard should pony up to keep Santana. The taxpayers are paying for his stadium. Jerk.)

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Dec 5, 2007 10:29 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Let's slow down and think!

As a Sox's fan, My big concern about Santana is that he is giving up alot of home runs in 2007. He still strikes out a ton of batters per game, but Fenway isn't a flyball pitcher friendly park. His September 2007 stats weren't that great, he lost the last 4 out of 5 games he pitched and gave up a bunch of home runs.

Varitek and Ortiz run the clubhouse, so as long as Santana gets along with everyone, he shouldn't have a problem, I can see he having problems with Beckett, much like the tension between Schilling and Martinez in 2004, because they are competing to be the ace of the staff.

There has been questions about he is not using his deadly slider as much as he use to, the pitch that all batter chase after before it hits the dirt, whether it is hurting his arm, like what may happened to Liriano, or he doesn't feel confident about it anymore.

However like Pedro Martinez, who in many ways was a similar pitcher to Santana, didn't tip pitches, change up motion same as his fastball, a smart pitcher, is getting by on his smarts alone now, Santana can probably pitch into his 40s on his smart if need be.

by superferret on Dec 5, 2007 11:48 PM EST up reply actions

I agree with gosox

I like our kids; I worry Santana will wear down; too much money for Johan

risky

only real positive is to keep Johan from Yankees

wish the Dodgers would swoop in

by jwp on Dec 5, 2007 2:15 PM EST reply actions

Re: I agree with gosox

Johan Santana has pitched over 200 inning most of his career and never had any injury problems.

He is a changeup/fastball pitcher and only throws 1 pitch that could potentially put pressure on his elbow, his slider and he does not throw that a lot.

As for the kids, lets all be honest outside of Lester and Coco, these guys are still just prospects...anyone remember Dernell Sternson? He was a top prospect as well.

Where is he now?

Santana for Lester, Coco, Masterson and Kalish or Lowrie is a steal for the Sox.

If Santana plays for the Sox you potentially have dynasty for the next 5 years.

I know people love "our" guys, but if someone comes to you and asks for unproven players and gives you the best pitcher in baseball, coupled with what the Tigers did yesterday, you MUST take that deal.

by SoxAcumen on Dec 5, 2007 3:08 PM EST up reply actions

Re: I agree with gosox

The Dodgers will not pay Johan the money he wants. They are also big on the Bedard and Haren trades mainly to keep him from the Dbacks.

Bedard is the most likely bc the Orioles will not trade in the same division which gets rid of some of the top teams who want Bedard, Yanks, Sox and Jays.

Dodgers need bats, not arms, they have many quality pitchers.

by SoxAcumen on Dec 5, 2007 3:11 PM EST up reply actions

Re: The Red Sox best deal for Santana still a myst

I have a half hearted feeling theo is just playing the league and had no intention to go through with the trade. It seems like something that a young, sickly smart kid would do. Either way I will be happy in the end. I like our chances with these kids, but Johan is great.

...if me don't get him I wish that some NL team would come out and do a deal

by AZredsoxfan on Dec 5, 2007 3:00 PM EST reply actions

Re: The Red Sox best deal for Santana still a myst

Anyone want to speculate how excited Tek must be to catch a staff that includes the best 2 pitchers in baseball, and up and coming stud in Dice-K, a potential hall of famer Schilling, and a young potential #1 in Buchholz.

Has any catcher had this type of rotation?

by SoxAcumen on Dec 5, 2007 3:52 PM EST reply actions

Re: Tek born in 1972

Varitek handles the pitching staff extremely well and contributes in many ways, not the least of which is being the captain. We need to face facts that he is getting older and would benefit by getting rested on a periodic basis. Mirabelli is also older, slow and a marginal hitter at best. We should use some of our talent to trade for a young but promising catcher. Lets not put all the eggs into the Santana basket but instead look to fill our needs in other areas as well.

by Longsuffering on Dec 5, 2007 4:42 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Tek born in 1972

I just think you get these once in a lifetime deals, you have to make it work.

Santana is the best pitcher in baseball. Lowrie, Masterson, and whomever have not played an inning in the bigs.

Lester is not Santana. Coco would be missed for his defense.

Putting your "eggs" in the basket of the best pitcher in baseball seems like a great move to me.

by SoxAcumen on Dec 5, 2007 5:42 PM EST up reply actions

Re: The Red Sox best deal for Santana still a myst

I heard that we might give tek a 2 yr 18 mil deal. I would love that. it puts him at 38, which is too old for a catcher, but that retains him till we get a good young player (even if we get salty or someone, it gives them time to develop), and when he is through it gives us a extremely high paid coach that will teach the new guy how to run a game.

by AZredsoxfan on Dec 5, 2007 4:50 PM EST up reply actions

Re: The Red Sox best deal for Santana still a myst

I would love a deal like that- mostly for sentimental value.

Although Varitek is declining offensively, he is still a great catcher behind the mound. We don't need our catcher to hit 3rd or 4th and be a big offensive threat.

by Schulz on Dec 5, 2007 6:13 PM EST up reply actions