Don't misunderstand me. I don't want A-Rod...
...but I do want him if the alternative is Miguel Cabrera.
Crazy? Oh hells yes. I pondered whether to make this public, though unfortunately pondered so out loud while discussing the 3B issue with Randy. And what the boss says? Yeah. You gotta do it baby.
Miguel Cabrera has been (more or less correctly) described as:
- lazy
- "playing-shape-challenged"
- poor defensively
- I dunno, probably some other things.
Now granted, in that list, the first one is going nowhere, and we have the second (if, potentially, in a slight decline).
I don't think it's that much of a stretch to say, if A-Rod doesn't tear, rip, tweak, or pull a muscle (and of course, these are risks with any player), he IS the kind of player who works hard enough on himself and on his game to remain playing >150-155 games per season until he's 40. And not just play that many games, but also play them at a non-1B position and not "kill you on defense".
Also, consider this. I think A-Rod would be content to come in and just play. Could it be a bit awkward or frosty, especially with 'Tek? Absolutely. That's certainly a bit of a concern. However: if Miguel Cabrera comes in and starts throwing his weight around (metaphorically, though if it were literally that could be dangerous with him at this point), how is that going to go over in the clubhouse? Would guys like Curt Schilling, Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz, all but publicly call him out for it? You bet your sweet behind they would, Sally.
The A-Rod contract: probably >$30M AAV/8-10 years. That's a long time. That's a lot of money. But then, consider this. In two years, Miguel Cabrera will be looking for the same kind of money, the same kind of years, at the age of 26 and (at his current rate of growth) 267 lbs. Take a guy like that to his age-34 or age-36 year? And if we don't sign him at that point, think about what we'll have given up for those two seasons.
Some have speculated (and it's been reported) that the Marlins are looking for Ellsbury + Lester OR Buchholz. Personally, I'm not sure if including Lester as a possible piece isn't wishful thinking on the part of somebody. I'm pretty sure the Marlins asked for Ellsbury and Buchholz specifically, with potentially some other parts mixed in.
Let's say, for the moment, that the package that the Marlins are looking for would be something like: Buchholz, Ellsbury, Lowrie, Hansen. Is it a lot? Am I potentially, overestimating? Maybe, though I think at least the inclusion of another offensive player is a distinct possibility. Even so, despite being good prospects, neither Lowrie nor Hansen has a spot on the big league club anyway in a critical position (Hansen, of course, could be considered in the mix for a bullpen spot in the 6th/7th innings). So, do we really want to give up these 2-4 players for 2 seasons of Miguel Cabrera? Would having done so almost make it compulsory to meet whatever contract demands he has when/just before he reaches free agency?
...
Other 3B thoughts...
- I'm not sure I disagree with YFSF's analysis about the Sox already being on PR control.
- Offering Lowell 3 years, to me, is the minimum of what it would take. And I agree with Mr. Rotoworld Sidebar that they probably have to overpay slightly to get him to take 3 years. 3/$45M is my guess.
- Offering Lowell 3 years, allowing it to become public, means that Jed Lowrie isn't even considered to have an outside shot at 3B next season, and that may be just as well. Defensively, he seems like the kind of guy who'd be a bit stretched at SS in the ML, and if his arm is good enough, 3B might be the ONLY place for him to stick on our roster at any point. However, he's clearly not ready for that yet.
- I saw in the Lowell thread yesterday, the suggestion of Scott Rolen. He's played a full season in 1 of the last 3 years. 3 years at $12M per? Only real positive he offers over Mike Lowell is being a full year younger. And even then. Meh.
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Re: Don't misunderstand me. I don't want A-Rod...
by Matzushocka on Nov 9, 2007 12:02 PM EST reply actions
Re: Manny Going?
We do need a backup catcher for Varitek, someone to share the load and if that someone could play 1B part time or the outfield part time, so much the better.
With Manny potentially gone this year or next, we should sign a good replacement outfielder. Torii Hunter is available and could help.
As far as A-Rod, I find 8 years and $30 million a year to be too steep. If we did sign him, I would prefer him at SS with Lowell at third. Why wouldn't that work?
by Longsuffering on Nov 9, 2007 12:21 PM EST reply actions
Re: Don't misunderstand me. I don't want A-Rod...
Pitching wins. Arod doesn't.
Re: Don't misunderstand me. I don't want A-Rod...
What about moving Youk back to 3rd base and resigning Hintzke and maybe picking up Meinkevicz(sp?) or whatever 1B free agents might be out.
You guys are the pros - talk to me...
by ytkuf on Nov 9, 2007 12:44 PM EST reply actions
Re: Don't misunderstand me. I don't want A-Rod...
A few thoughts
I would love to have Lowell back, but in the grand scheme of things he's certainly not the best bang for the buck. Trading for a top-flight, 3B prospect is the way to go. Colorado looks like the best partner, with Garret Atkins and Ian Stewart conceivably vying for playing time or facing a change of position. The Red Sox could look at Brandon Wood from LAAoA, too.
Evan Longoria might be had for a package similar to what Saltalamacchia might command, but given Tampa's coffers and position as a division rival, I doubt we'd get him.
With so much money invested long-term in J.D. Drew, I'm reticent to spend $32+ M annually on A-rod. However, if you look at the historical context, the Red Sox had to shell out big, big bucks to secure Manny Ramirez's services. With Manny in his last few years, the Red Sox need to begin considering how they'll compensate for the absence of Manny's production.
Discounting the emotional baggage and the ego issues, A-Rod is the type of player that you try to be economical in order to afford. He's a franchise guy. That being said, I'd rather not sign A-rod for the emotional reasons, and because I can't stand the thought of the Red Sox becoming the new Yankees.
I'm generally not in favor of trading for an established "B" player, like Hank Blalock.
Re: A few thoughts
Exactly.
Re: A few thoughts
Re: A few thoughts
Re: A few thoughts
by Matzushocka on Nov 9, 2007 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
Don't hold back now
I'm a Levis jeans guy. I refuse to spend $200 on a pair of designer jeans, even though at this point in my life I probably could. I'm sure they'd fit good and look nice and all, and in time maybe they'd even be my favorite pants. But deep down, I'd still feel like a total douchebag knowing I spent $200 dollars on a pair of pants.
This is sort of how I feel about Arod.
Re: Don't hold back now
Re: Is there such a thing?
Re: A few thoughts
Bite the bullet, sign A-Rod, shore up that right hand bat the Sox will need, provide future protection for Ortiz, and have the 3B position covered. Let the fans of other teams continue the whining they are already doing. Those other fans were only gonna be happy for the Red Sox winning one World Series after the long drought, they were never gonna root for more; and they'd be just as annoyed if the Sox win a bunch with home-grown talent as they would be with FAs. As soon as A-Rod starts slamming balls off and over the monster you'll forget what a prick he was in the 2004 ALCS.
Re: A few thoughts
by Matzushocka on Nov 9, 2007 5:29 PM EST up reply actions
Re: Don't misunderstand me. I don't want A-Rod...
by Matzushocka on Nov 9, 2007 2:23 PM EST reply actions
Re: Don't misunderstand me. I don't want A-Rod...
When you deal with the Devil (Rays), you always lose.
Re: Don't misunderstand me. I don't want A-Rod...
by Matzushocka on Nov 9, 2007 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
Re: Don't misunderstand me. I don't want A-Rod...
Re: Don't misunderstand me. I don't want A-Rod...
by Matzushocka on Nov 9, 2007 7:18 PM EST up reply actions
Re: Don't misunderstand me. I don't want A-Rod...
Re: Don't misunderstand me. I don't want A-Rod...
A-Rod, on the other hand...
Re: Don't misunderstand me. I don't want A-Rod...
Re: Don't misunderstand me. I don't want A-Rod...
Re: Don't misunderstand me. I don't want A-Rod...
I get the fact that you give up nothing really signing A-Rod, but you do lose a small part of your soul by having him on your team.
Re: Don't misunderstand me. I don't want A-Rod...
by Matzushocka on Nov 9, 2007 4:33 PM EST reply actions
Re: Don't misunderstand me. I don't want A-Rod...
On a side note I encountered this today http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets/ny-spmets095453040nov09,0,2832017.story
It claims we're the leading contender for Hiroki Kuroda, odd considering we seem to have all the starting pitching we need.
Re: Don't misunderstand me. I don't want A-Rod...
by Matzushocka on Nov 9, 2007 5:30 PM EST up reply actions
Re: Don't misunderstand me. I don't want A-Rod...
Re: Don't misunderstand me. I don't want A-Rod...
"The Red Sox, who seriously are considering the use of a six-man starting rotation next season, are considered to be leading the chase for Kuroda."
Considered by whom? What is the source for this? Some official at the Mets? The Sox FO? A bone-casting seer? Where are his sources?
I'd need an "according to" to take this seriously. Otherwise it's just shoddy journalism / rumor mongering.
Re: Don't misunderstand me. I don't want A-Rod...
by Matzushocka on Nov 9, 2007 7:19 PM EST reply actions
Re: Don't misunderstand me. I don't want A-Rod...
Lester's trade value is at its pinnacle v. you do not move him. If he was any better you would just keep him. Lefties do not do particularly well in Boston. Oakland is a big stadium and they need a "Cheap" CF. Plus they will get a few prospects. Sox get 50cents on the dollar for Haren(meaning they get him without moving Ellsbury or Buchholz). Both teams are happy, Haren is happy bc he will get a big deal from the Sox and the Sox rotation is going to be insane with Beckett, Haren, Dice-K, Wake, Schilling, Buchholz and possible Kuroda.
I think this is the "under the table" deal the Sox are working on. This move, resigning Schilling and Wake for insurance, resigning Lowell and signing one of the Japanese guys for the pen/starter position is what I think will happen.
This is only my opinion though. Oakland must move Haren, they want quality prospects...blah, blah blah, it might work out.
Re: Don't misunderstand me. I don't want A-Rod...
Re: Don't misunderstand me. I don't want A-Rod...
Re: Don't misunderstand me. I don't want A-Rod...
If you are a right handed pitcher you really only have to worry about the inside pitch to LHbatters so they can pull it to the small dimensions. RHP to a LHbatter if its outside you get the monster, using averages. RHP inside to a LH batter, dangerous, but there are fewer LHanded hitters in MLB than RHanded. So a lineup to a right hander would at most have 3 or 4 lefties. The chances of a right hander going the other way from a pitch moving away from a RHander is not as likely, bc most RHbatters are looking to pull the ball and hit the monster against a RHP.
A LHP has two mistakes they do not want to make. The inside pull from a LHbatter and the outside mistake to a right handed batter. With a Lefty v. a Righty, the ball is moving towards the RHbatter and he has a better oppotunity to take the pitch the other way bc he can see the ball better. Plus there are more righties, its not unusual for most teams to only have 1 lefty in the lineup v. a LHP, than the opposite for a RHP who only faces at most 4 Lhanded batters. A LHbatter is most likely looking for the same at bats, pull the ball to the short porch, but there are fewer of them and a mistake on the outside corner from a RHP will be knocked off the Green Monster, not hit out like with the short porch.
Further, since there are more RHbatters, on average RHbatters do better v. LHP than they do RHP, they have a better chance to see the ball and jump a pitch, knocking it off the wall v. a long fly ball.
So really, if I am explaining this the way someone once explained it to me. A LHP in Fenway is just a victim of the dimensions being favorable to LHanded hitters and the fact there are far more RHanded hitters in MLB who on average do better at the plate v. a LHP, than they do v. RHP.
I hope I explained this properly....
Makes sense
Here's a good chunk of the article, for those without a NYT subscription.
''Once I cross the white lines, I can't think about the configuration of the ball park,'' Hurst said today. ''I didn't build it; I just have to do the best in it.''
Hurst, who has developed into one of the best left-handed pitchers in the American League, has done his superlative best at Boston's home park this season. In stifling the Yankees on three hits today, he gained his 13th victory against a lone loss at Fenway, the wonderfully unique park with the towering monster of a left-field wall.
Left-handed pitchers are supposed to have trouble at Fenway - indeed have had trouble here - because right-handed hitters can pepper the wall and clear the wall with line drives and fly balls. Right-handed pitchers, at least, are tougher for right-handed batters to hit.
Hurst, a 30-year-old in his eighth season with the Red Sox, has now recorded the most victories in a season by a left-hander here since Mel Parnell won 16 in 1949. The last pitcher left or right to win 13 times at Fenway was Bob Stanley, a right-hander, in 1978.
Kuroda
Re: Kuroda
Re: Don't misunderstand me. I don't want A-Rod...
Beckett, Lester and Dice-K will be on a normal five man rotation and then Schilling, Wake, Buchholz and possibly Kuroda will alternate the last 2 spots. Sox do not want Schilling, Wake and Buchholz in a normal rotation and this way they can pick and choose when to pitch are rest each.
I think the Sox are either trying to convince Kuroda that the pen is as important or they are trying to deflect attention from their real target in Iwase, Uehara or Kobayashi.

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