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Santana to Sox Trade in the Works

ESPN's Buster Olney is reporting, via Rotoworld, that the Sox and Twins are discussing a trade that would send Johan Santana to the Sox for Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie, Jon Lester and a fourth player.

The fourth player could be Justin Masterson or Michael Bowden. I'm hoping it's the former. I really like Bowden and I think he could be as good a pitcher as Clay Buchholz.

If the Sox trade Lester, Crisp, Lowrie and Masterson for Santana, I'll be ecstatic. It would certainly favor the Red Sox because A) Crisp is expendable, B) Lowrie doesn't have a spot in the Sox lineup, C) Buchholz > Masterson, and D) Lester is a good pitcher, but I think Buchholz and Bowden will be better.

What are the thoughts going around Red Sox Nation?

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Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Those four are a lot to give up, but I'd do it in a heartbeat. We'd be trimming towards the bottom of the tree for some serious growth at the top, so to speak.

Geez, does that make any freakin' sense at all? :P

by Hughie Jennings on Nov 29, 2007 4:08 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
No it doesn't, but I would love the trade!

by AZredsoxfan on Nov 29, 2007 4:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Hmmm, we'd be giving up 2 of our top 5 prospects, plus Lester (not a top of the rotation pitcher, made more expendable by us acquiring Santana) and Crisp (who lost his starting CF spot), for possibly the best pitcher in the game, healthy and in his prime.

Talentwise, this seems like a no-brainer.  All that's at issue is whether the extension would be workable.

by argo0 on Nov 29, 2007 4:29 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
if we are able to sign Santana to an extension, I think I would do that deal in a heartbeat. Pretty much to echo what Randy already said, Coco I assumed was already out the door, Jed I assumed was going to be traded sooner or later as there is no place for him on our team in the next couple years. I love Lester, but as much as potential he seems to have, I don't think he will be an ace, especially if he never gets his control under....well under control. Bowden or Masterson both have potential of being great, but I think the key word is "potential", they have yet to prove they can hold in on the big stage and they very well could bottom out (it happens all the time...just consider that our very own Snyder was once considered a top prospect).

So we would be trading two expendibles (who don't really have a place on the team anyways) and two unproven SPs, for a proven ace and argueably one of the best....I say you have to do it (given that it's for more then one year...and some might say "why not just wait one year then and sign him as a FA?", well, what if the Yanks DO trade for him and then give him an extension....so much for that idea)

by Realistic on Nov 29, 2007 4:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
I think I actually felt some drool roll down my chin.

SP:
Beckett
Santana
Dice-K
Schilling
Wake
Buccholz (for when one of our old guys inevitable goes on the DL)

Lineup:
Jacoby
Dustin
Papi
Manny
Lowell
Drew
Youks
'Tek
Lugo

and with Paps closing out the games, who could stop us?
No one, that's who.

by Schulz on Nov 29, 2007 4:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Wow. A rotation of Beckett, Santana, Dice-K, Schilling, and Wakefield would be enough to dominate anyone on its own, but with Buccholz as well? No one will want to play us!

Plus, that lineup is pretty scary. Four out of the 5 players at the top are pretty much guaranteed to hit over .300, with Manny being able to hit really well anyway. Then you have Drew, who I really think will have a better year this year; Youk, who is just awesome; 'Tek, whose knees seem to be made of iron; and Lugo, who... well, maybe he'll do better this year too.

And the lineup goes lefty, righty, lefty, righty, righty, lefty, righty, switch, righty. That'll be fun...

by Liza on Nov 29, 2007 5:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
And you can pretty much bet Buch will replace Wake or Schill by the all-star break -- one of them is going to end up on the DL by then.

by RSNexile on Nov 30, 2007 2:04 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
I don't see it waiting until the break... I'm a fan now for Schilling in the pen and Buchholz in the rotation from day one...
The Red Head

by the red head on Nov 30, 2007 10:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
P.S.
At the very least, the Yankees will get word of this deal and be forced to up their offer big time

by Schulz on Nov 29, 2007 4:38 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
I think the Yankees can give a better deal if they offer Cano and Hughes, than Hughes and Cabrera.  I see the biggest hurdle for the Red Sox is actually agreeing to contract extension for more than five years.

This is a good deal for the Sox, even if Santana continues with his numbers as he did in 2007.

by superferret on Nov 29, 2007 4:46 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
santana is going to be 29 next season...who(that can afford it) is afraid of giving him 6 years?

by spinz on Nov 30, 2007 12:37 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Dear Theo,

Make this deal now.  Before the Yankees get a chance to offer more.

Thanks

by cblesz on Nov 29, 2007 4:58 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Over/under: How long till the deal gets done (if it does)?
"Why not us?"

by reversecursing on Nov 29, 2007 5:24 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Rotoworld is great, isn't it?

The news today is that the Sox are in the lead for Santana.

The news yesterday was that the Yankees had the lead.

Anybody else think that the Twins are doing a pretty darn good job, so far, in building up interest? Let's see how good this new GM of theirs is.

by Hughie Jennings on Nov 29, 2007 5:26 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
I can't wait to get MLB Extra Innings next year.
Work your magic Theo...

by Bosoxman34 on Nov 29, 2007 5:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Do it Theo. This is cannot lose. Keeping Jacoby, and Buchhy while gaining Santana is huge. You cant have two lefties in a Fenway rotation anyhow, so losing Lester isnt the end of the world. Id really be alright with losing Buchholz in any deal bringing Santana over, assuming a long term deal for Santana is accomplished prior.
The Sox will set the record for wins in a season IF they get Santana.

Lets not forget some things:

  1. Drew has a down year and will probably rebound. What if he plays up to potential?
  2. Manny has a "down" year for himself.
  3. Papi was playing hurt all year.
  4. Scrappy wasn't batting lead-off all year long.  Jacoby is a legit lead-off hitter, giving us something we didnt really have all of 2007. And we can bat Scrappy further down. Jacoby will have at least as good a year defensively in 08 as Coco, and produce better w/ the bat.
  5. Dice-K should rebound huge in 08
This could be ugly for the rest of MLB if only 2 or three of these things happen. It could be like the Patriots running all over the NFL :)

by Matzushocka on Nov 29, 2007 5:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
  1. Drew had a normal year for him and I don't expect much better.
  2. Manny is a good hitter when he is in the lineup but he is only a fair defensive player, if that. Hope he can contribute all year.
  3. Papi has a chance to have another wonderful year.
  4. Jacoby should be a valuable leadoff hitter. With Dustin behind we have good table setters. Having Youk, Papi and Manny behind in some combination is pretty formidable.
  5. Dice K should be better next year.
One not mentioned, is that our bench should be improved with replacements coming in for Willie Mo and Hinske.

by Longsuffering on Nov 29, 2007 6:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
I think Drew will be better. I also think Manny's defense (especially at fenway) is under-rated.

by Matzushocka on Nov 29, 2007 7:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Drew will be better, because he all but has to be.

Manny's defense is underrated at Fenway only, IMHO.

by Allen Chace on Nov 29, 2007 11:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Although it is 82 games in Boston, there is also 82 games elsewhere... I for one, don't under-rate Manny's defense... he stinks. He doesn't push himself, and won't with this attitude. I personally would love to see him part of the trade in some manner and keep Crisp. I know it won't happen that way, but without Manny, I'd be a happier person.
The Red Head

by the red head on Nov 30, 2007 10:38 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, dear
Manny generally plays 140 games per year, out of a total of 162 and people give him crap about faking injuries.

In the beginning of the season and when he comes off the DL, Manny hustles around the field and the bases because his hamstrings don't hurt. There's a reason he's also called Hammy Ramirez. He's an ideal DH, but that spot is filled on the Red Sox' roster.

Manny's a hall-of-famer, and one of the best right-handed hitters of our generation and of all time. Personally, I think he has the sweetest swing in baseball.

No team is better off without Manny Ramirez.

I hope we can put "trade Manny" to bed.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Nov 30, 2007 12:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Oh, dear
Unless we can get Pujols for him. Similar production from a younger player who, last season to the contrary, almost never gets hurt, whose salary is lower, and who can play both corner infield positions and the outfield?

I'd make that deal, but that's about the only one.

by RSNexile on Nov 30, 2007 1:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Oh, dear
Wow, must be tough to PLAY at the most 4.5 hours a day. Some WOMEN work a lot longer and harder than Manny does, and doesn't get the satisfaction that he does. Wake up... the man is not going to be the 'power' hitter he has been in the past and his swing, as sweet as it is, will deteriorate as '08 plays out.

I can no longer contain myself of fans that find it necessary to 'hold onto' players because of 'what they've done.'

The sooner the better Manny leaves, the sooner I'll feel as though I'm free of my aching back.

The Red Head

by the red head on Nov 30, 2007 5:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Oh, dear
  1. Your male chauvinism and sexism angers me.
  2. By your logic no one should ever get hurt "playing" baseball, unless they get hit with a ball or possibly someone's cleats.  Clearly baseball, while it doesn't require the same sort of physical endurance as a triathlon or a marathon or the physical contact of football, is a very physically taxing sport.  Some players' bodies react in certain ways more than others.  I think, especially considering the fact that he tore it up in the postseason, it's a little early to count Manny out.
That being said, I do think we're paying him an awful lot and if he doesn't reach his pre-2007 levels of production we shouldn't exercise his options.  I'd give him one more year to prove that he still deserves the reputation that he's got as one of the best hitters in baseball though.

by B VT on Nov 30, 2007 7:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yup.
Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Nov 30, 2007 7:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
jeez oh man

this Santana news is making my day.
Just think...
Beckett>Santana>Matsuzaka>Schilling>Wakefield>Buccholtz

on top of that...

Posada claims Pettitte is leaning towards retiremnt!!!

let's go back2back2back

by mpieretti on Nov 29, 2007 5:40 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

"Beckett > Santana"
I'm as big a Beckett proponent as anyone, but I give Santana the edge here, at least over the course of a full season. Beckett may have the "big game" edge, but then again Johan is no post-season slouch himself.
Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Nov 29, 2007 7:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: "Beckett > Santana"
I thought about naming Santana the #1 starter but thought it would be best for the team if he earned his way there.

We don't want to piss of Beckett by paying Santana a ton of money and then just naming him our ace.

Beckett is 6-2 in his postseason starts.  He carried the team past the Indians in the ALCS-- I think he's earned top dog status for now

"It was Beckett's 3rd post season complete game shut-out. In Tom Verducci's Inside Baseball column this morning, Tom points out that only Christy Mathewson has more post season shut-outs than Beckett with four. Beckett also became the first pitcher in MLB history to throw a complete game shut out with no walks and no extra base hits."

Need to look up Santana's post season numbers and see how they compare.

What a great problem we could have!!!

xxCRACKxx flies the ball into the cool October night...

by mpieretti on Dec 2, 2007 1:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: "Beckett > Santana"
You needn't look far, because they are in fact posted directly above your post.

by 0157H7 on Dec 3, 2007 1:58 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: "Beckett > Santana"
My bad, those are only the numbers from 04. His baseball-reference page lists his post-season stats:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=santajo02&post=1&t=p

by 0157H7 on Dec 3, 2007 2:00 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
The rumor is over at MLBTR.com.

Let me paraphrase all the conversations:

  1. As we know the offer is Lester, Coco, Lowrie and Masterson for Johan Santana.
  2. Yankees, this is not confirmed, just a rumor offered Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera and some parts.
  3. Mets want in but refuse to give up Jose Reyes, which means they are offering nothing.
  4. Twins want Ellsbury or Buchholz from the Sox, Hughes or Cano or Jaba from the Yankees, or Jose Reyes from the Mets.
  5. rumors are that the Dodgers, Angels, Mariners and the Reds are all in this but will not give up their prized top prospects which I assume is guys like Kershaw and Adenhart.
  6. Most people believe this is it for the Sox since they most likely will not give up either Ellsbury or Buchholz and in truth Theo is just making the Yankees deal one of the two stud pitchers Hughes or Jaba.
  7. Everyone thinks the Twins move Bartlett to make room for a SS, Reyes.  Which leaves the Yankees high and dry, but makes the Angels even more attractive with their young SS prospects.
8)Who Effing knows what will actually get Santana.  IMO whomever blinks first and gives up the names the Twins are looking for get Santana.
  1. Rumor again - it will take a 5+ year deal upwards of 130 million to sign Santana.
  2. Yankee fans hate us and we hate them, nothing has changed.
check it out, MLBTR.com

by SoxAcumen on Nov 29, 2007 5:49 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Honestly, I don't like this deal that much.

Lowrie is expendable in my opinion, as he has had a miserable fall.

Crisp, get rid of him asap.

What gets to me is that I really like Lester and Masterson. Both have ace potential, personally I feel more so Lester than Masterson. Lester is 6 years younger, and Santana is almost 30 already. Won't be long before he begins to decline. We could be stuck with him until he's 36 putting up average numbers at a price tag of over 25M a year.

by Albert Chang on Nov 29, 2007 6:01 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
The payroll won't kill us as long as we let Manny go after next season, but I just have a feeling Lester will come back to bite us.

by Albert Chang on Nov 29, 2007 6:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
I love Lester, I jsut think he has a chance of not living up to his potential. Even when he has been good he has struggled with control, and even after 3 years it doesn't seem to be getting any better. It's hard to tag a pitcher an ace if they are only making it through 6 innings max a start and are walking people.

As for Bowden or Masterson, both have potential of being Aces, but they also have the chance of bottoming out, it happens all the time (Snyder himself was once considered a potential future ace...do think anyone would still say that about him). And the chances of them turning into one of the top 5 pitchers in the game (like Santana) is slim, and the chances of them being the best pitcher (like Santana is) is even slimmer.

by Realistic on Nov 30, 2007 9:59 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
I'm not sure it's fair to judge Lester the same as you would any other player. After surviving cancer, he was basically starting from scratch. You really have to give him another year or two to see if he'll improve.

That said, of all the pitchers mentioned here as possible parts of a trade for Santana, I think he's the most disposable.

by RSNexile on Nov 30, 2007 11:51 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Yes this is true, but I've followed Lester even before he had cancer and he has always had control issues. Cancer definitely set him back, I just think that control looks like it will always be an issue for him. He might get it under control enough to be successful (and I think he will), but I just don't think he will ever reach his full potential. His control issues has lowered his ceiling so to speak

by Realistic on Nov 30, 2007 12:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
I think we as Red Sox fans get caught up in the hype of our prospects.  Yes, Jacoby and Buccholz are the real deal. Lester, Masterson, and Lowrie- probably not.

We have to look at this from the Twins' point of view.

They get a CF without much offensive production.  A young lefty with control issues, who always manages to get his pitch count to around 100 by the end of the 5th inning (and has put up very average ML stats), and two unproven minor league prospects.

They give up Johan Santana
Johan friggen Santana people.

If I were the Twins, I would never make this deal.  It would definetly take Jacoby or Buccholz/ Joba or Hughes, plus a lot of high value prospects

by Schulz on Nov 29, 2007 7:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
I wouldn't see there being a huge problem of signing Santana to something along the lines of 6y/130mil. I think if we trade for him, which is a big if, the extension will quickly follow.

by gnick55 on Nov 29, 2007 6:05 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
I'm the rain on everyone's parade!  

If this happens it'll be extraordinary.  I just don't think it'll get the deal done.  If I were the Twins, I'd be asking for either Buchholz or Ellsbury as opposed to Lester or Crisp.

NY will need to bring more to the party then Kennedy and Cabrera.  They'll need to include either Hughes, Chamberlain, Cano or a combination thereof.  As good as prospects as Hughes and Chamberlain are I think NY is putting waaaay too much stock in how good they can be.  We have all seen great prospects not live up to expectations and sample sizes for both of them is way too small at this stage.

We are talking about Santana.  This is like getting Koufax at 25, or Pedro when we got him.  Let me introduce you to our first 3 starting pitchers(not in any particular order)
Santana
Beckett
Dice-K

Jesus, that's just brutal for everyone else in the league.  You are looking at 70-80 quality starts right there.  We instantly become a 105 win team if this comes off.

by sydneysox on Nov 29, 2007 6:30 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Yeah, but think of it from the Twins perspective. Currently the Sox and Yanks are the only ones with realistic offers, neither seem to be willing to budge in the Twins demands for Huges/Joba/Cano/Ellsbury/Clay. If they sit pat until either the Sox or Yanks up their ante, and neither team does, the Twins keep Santana and in a year he files for FA and the twins get NOTHING. As much as they might want Clay or ELlsbury, Jed/Bowden/Coco/Lester is nothing to balk at, and is a lot better then sitting pat and getting nothing. That's 3 level A prospects. I'd say if Santana had 2 more years than yeah, sit pat and stall until Yanks or Sox budge, and if not enjoy another year with the best pitcher and re-enter the trading table the next off season. However, the fact that he is gone next year if not traded, you have to pull the trigger.

Put it this way, we didn't give up that much for Beckett. We only gave one A level prospect (Hanley who at the time was struggling at the plate....though I guess he turned out pretty good) and one B level prospect (Anibal, who faked people out with his no-hitter, but then came back down to earth). Now given, Beckett wasn't considered the best pitcher in the game at the time, but still I think it's a decent comparison

by Realistic on Nov 30, 2007 10:15 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
I agree that the Twins don't have much of a choice. I am not trying to state other wise, I am just pointing something out.

Correct me if I am wrong but I just want to state that the Twins don't get nothing they get 2 first round draft picks if Johan is lost to FA. That is with the assumption the Twins offer arbitration, which they will.

Other then that though I still agree two draft picks for Johan is a terrible loss.

by drabidea on Nov 30, 2007 10:38 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
True, this is very true. I was thinking more in the lines of what they would get that would be "Major league ready" in the next two years, but yeah, they would at least get 2 first round draft picks

by Realistic on Nov 30, 2007 11:10 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Most of the comments I've seen so far, both here and on other blogs, is "Go for it -- JS is [one of] the best pitcher out there." (at least from Sox fans).  None of these comments address, however, the park splits that Santana has. Per Baseball Reference (http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=santajo02), his ERA in Fenway is 6.9, more than twice his overall 3.2 with an OPS of .856, 50% higher than his overall rate.  Considering that he practically owns Boston in Minn, this is clearly a park effect.
Then there's the question of is he really the best.  Baseball Prospectus's VORP scale has him 11th in 2007, slightly behind Beckett and on a par with Haren, the other most frequently mentioned trade target.

by MJMcC on Nov 29, 2007 6:34 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Yeah, that's 11th in 2007.  Where was he from 2003-2006, around the top 3 I should imagine.
He'll be one of the top 3 pitchers for the next 4 years at least, to me its well worth the price we are offering and giving him 5 years.

by sydneysox on Nov 29, 2007 6:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Sydneysox, think about what you just typed...

11th for 2007, but earlier in his career he was one of the top three...

All of a sudden, I'm nervous... yeah, 32 and on a decline of his possibilities... that can hurt.

The Red Head

by the red head on Nov 30, 2007 10:45 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Thanks for the link.

I highly recommend everybody clicking it and checking out (way down) his stats at Fenway. Then click on Fenway.

You'll notice that his awful stats there were compiled over 10 2/3 innings in 2000, 2002 and 2003.

In other words, Santana hasn't started a single game in Fenway since he became, well, The Best Pitcher in the game.

Also... 10 2/3 innings is a remarkably small sample size. So small it's basically of no significance.

You also might notice that his home/away splits for his career aren't that different (you'll find those higher up on the page).

I, for one, don't have a worry at all about Santana pitching at Fenway. My guess is he'll be un-f'in-believable; aka Santana.

by Hughie Jennings on Nov 29, 2007 6:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Fenway is brutal on Lefties.

This is just a fact and probably why Lester has +4.00 era.

Johan will be a major help on the road.

by SoxAcumen on Nov 29, 2007 8:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Lester has a high ERA because he's struggled with command and given up a lot of hits. His career major league WHIP is 1.566 (!!!). He's lucky to make it past the 5th inning in most of his starts.

There's a thread on SOSH projecting Santana, and how Fenway might affect him. One of the observations was  that Santana biggest problem lately has been left-handed slugging, which pitching at Fenway would  help with. Check it out:
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?s=d524ce3c0a5fc5a7da529f8cbb37d2c1&showtopic=25714

by 0157H7 on Nov 29, 2007 11:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Fenway is brutal on Lefties, this is a fact.

People can call it a myth or whatever, but the truth is for the Sox, right handed pitchers are better in Fenway.

Look at the Sox history, find me a quality Lefties who have done well in Fenway.

This is why I keep pushing Haren, he will most likely be better in Fenway than Santana.

by SoxAcumen on Nov 30, 2007 1:14 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Mel Parnell, Bill Lee, Bruce Hurst.

Hurst pitched great in Fenway.

As mentioned above, Lester's problem is control, not the park.

by kite in a gale on Nov 30, 2007 4:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
This guy was pretty good too.
Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Nov 30, 2007 4:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
3 lefties in what 100years?

I am going to find some site that explains this to you guys.  I know it bc someone long ago explained why Lefties do poorly in Fenway.  When I find someone on the net who explains it better than I, we can continue.

Until then, I guess you have to take my word, Lefties do poorly in Fenway.  

by SoxAcumen on Nov 30, 2007 7:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Did you see my post below?
Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Nov 30, 2007 7:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Lefties @ Fenway
Here are few lefties I've found that have pitched pretty well at Fenway:

Scott Kazmir - (9 GS) 2.73 ERA (career ERA 3.64)
CC Sabathia - (3 GS) 2.35 ERA (career ERA 3.83)
Andy Pettitte (14 G/12 GS) 3.70 ERA (career ERA 3.83)
Mark Mulder (5 GS) 2.93 ERA (career ERA 4.18)
Jimmy Key (17 G/15 GS) 3.49 ERA (career ERA 3.51)
Jim Abbott (6 GS) 3.07 ERA (career ERA 4.25 ERA)

Here are some former Red Sox lefties:

Former Red Sox reliever Tom Burgmeier was very good at Fenway.  In 121 appearances there, he had a 2.55 ERA.  In 127 appearances, Tony Fossas had a 2.77 career ERA at Fenway.  

Frank Viola (48 starts) 3.84 career ERA at Fenway. In his two full seasons in Boston (1992-1993), Viola had a 3.36 ERA at home and a 3.34 ERA on the road.

I'm sure there are others, and there are pitchers like former Angel Chuck Finley that were no better or worse when pitching at Fenway.  In 20 games (16 starts), Finley had a 3.90 ERA at Fenway.  His career ERA was a very similar 3.85.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 30, 2007 9:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lefties @ Fenway
So you guys are saying that everything I have ever read about Lefties getting raked in Fenway is a lie or made up?  

That teams do not stack their line ups with right handed hitters who can float a fly ball off the wall or hammer a line drive off the wall?

That RHanded hitters do not hit better against LHPs?

That the Sox have not tried to stack their teams over the years with Rhanded hitters?

Sox get right handed hitters and right handed strike out pitchers, and right handed ground ball pitchers.  This has been their strategy for years.

You can pull up stats all you guys want, the fact is a LHP cannot pitch inside consistently to a Rhanded hitter in Fenway bc 1) Rhanded hitters hit LHP on average better, 2) there are more RHanded hitters in the line up against a LHP 3) Rhanded hitters pull the ball off the wall and get more hits/hrs/runs v. LHP bc the green monster makes hits when certain at bats should be outs, and 4) if you pitch inside to a RHander on average he will pull the ball more than go the opposite way.

Seriously, I thought this was common knowledge.

When I find someone who explains this in a nice article ill post it, but I am telling you guys, no hard feelings or nothing, I knew this as a 12 year old back in CT.  I hear this talk about lefties in Fenway all the time.

I want to know if this is true or made up by someone in the 70s, we need Peter Gammons to clarify I think.

 

by SoxAcumen on Nov 30, 2007 10:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lefties @ Fenway
I'm all about challenging prevailing wisdom.
Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Dec 1, 2007 12:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
And his WHIP was still only 1.07 and his K/9 rate around 10 for 2007.  I don't see any decline in there yet at all.  Other players have up and down years, this guy is awesome every year.

by sydneysox on Nov 29, 2007 6:43 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
And I presume some-if not- most of those 13 losses last year was a tribute to Minnesota's atrocious offense.
"Why not us?"

by reversecursing on Nov 29, 2007 6:44 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
He is the best pitcher in baseball folks.

by Matzushocka on Nov 29, 2007 7:11 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
True dat...Let me go one further.  Johan dominates like 99' Pedro.

He has 2 change ups, 2 fastballs and a slider and most batters cannot tell what he is throwing until its in the glove.

Johan Santana and Roy Halladay have an argument for the filthiest pitchers from the past 10 years.

by SoxAcumen on Nov 29, 2007 8:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Halladay loses that argument, over the last five years at least.
Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Nov 29, 2007 8:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
No one does or ever did dominate like 99 Pedro, not in the modern era at least.

It's doubtful we'll ever see such a performance again, honestly.

by Allen Chace on Nov 29, 2007 11:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Is Bob Gibson in the modern era?

Halladay is one of the most underrated filthy pitchers of the past 10 years.  When healthy the guy can go from tough to UNHITTABLE.  its a shame that guy plays in a place no one will ever see him.  I believe Halladay has 2 Cys as well.  Someone correct me if I am wrong, but 2 Cys is the same as Johan.

Johan had 99' Pedro stuff during his Cy Young years. Does he still have it? probably not.

by SoxAcumen on Nov 30, 2007 1:22 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Pedro's 99 ERA+ = 243
Pedro's 00 ERA+ = 291 (WHIP: .737)

Next best back-to-back years?

Greg Maddux, 94-95. 271, 262.

Johan's best single season ERA+ = 182. (Santana's best WHIP in a single season, .921, is really a virtual tie with Pedro's 2nd and 3rd best seasons in that category, which were both: .923)

I want Santana as much as anyone, but I think comparing him to Pedro is unfair to him and an insult to Martinez himself.

by Allen Chace on Nov 30, 2007 1:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Halladay has 1 Cy Young (2003)...

Allen Chase, you are SOOO FRIGGIN' RIGHT. And when you're right, you're right.

Santana is awesome. A dream of a hunk of a superstar  that I'd love to see in a Red Sox uni.

But Pedro was god-like. There is absolutely no comparison. I'd give up Ellsbury, Buchholz and Pedroia (and more) for his equal today.

Consider:

Santana's BEST year: 2004 with an ERA+ of 182 and a Cy Young. Impressive. Very.

Pedro's best year: 2000 with an ERA+ of 291 (and his final Cy Young).

Pedro has had four other seasons of ERA+ of over 200, plus one more higher than Santana at 189.

That's a total of SIX seasons that Pedro had that he bested Santana at his best. There is NO CONTEST.

I hope everybody got to see Pedro in his prime, because you won't see it again in your lifetime. Not even if the Sox trade for Johan Santana.

PS. Beckett, in his best full season (2007), posted a 145 ERA+. He was awesome. Friggin' awesome. And he wasn't even in the same universe as Pedro.

by Hughie Jennings on Nov 30, 2007 1:39 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Aww geez. Leave it to me to spell Allen Chace's name as 'Allen Chase.' Sorry man.

Must be the Holiday Ale Festival speaking.

by Hughie Jennings on Nov 30, 2007 1:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Sweet mercy. The misspelling is cool, thanks for correcting it, though I'm pretty used to both my first and last name being "altered" from time to time.

And we basically posted the same things about Santana-Martinez at the same time.

by Allen Chace on Nov 30, 2007 1:42 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Yeah we did. Did you go to the Holiday Ale Festival, too? :P

by Hughie Jennings on Nov 30, 2007 1:45 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
I wish. I worked (overrated) tonight.

It's high time Randy found $$ in the OTM budget to make my position a salaried position.

by Allen Chace on Nov 30, 2007 1:47 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Here here!

What is the OTM budget, by the way? :)

by Hughie Jennings on Nov 30, 2007 1:52 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
I think my holiday gift from the company is a 2-liter coke.

Maybe that'll give you an idea of the budget...;-)

by Allen Chace on Nov 30, 2007 1:54 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Silly me.. that season with 189 ERA + for Pedro was one that he pitched just 116 2/3 inning (still, amazing innings). All those other great ERA+ years were with at least 186 innings.

by Hughie Jennings on Nov 30, 2007 1:44 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
I am so sick of Yankee fans acting like Ian Kennedy deserves mention with Hughes and Joba. He's not good at all and projects to be a #3 starter at best.

The way I see it the order of Yankme, Red Sox pitching prospects goes: Buchholz>Hughes>Joba>Lester>Kennedy>Masterson/Bowden.

And I'm giving Kennedy the nod of Bowden and Masterson by just a hair. They really seem about equal to me.

by gnick55 on Nov 29, 2007 7:37 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Hey,..
At least we're keeping Santana from everybody else.
I've been really really busy lately, but from what i've heard in my neck of the woods, Santana could go to they MFY's?!
Sorry if someone said that already, I don't have time to read the rest of the comments on here.
They need a good pitcher, and if they get one, that would prove to be catastrophic.

Just a thought.
Prove me wrong if I am, I'll check back later.

"SK: Hey, imagine what Steinbrenner's statue'll be doing. SO: Cast in bronze with his wallet out."

by mmmsox on Nov 29, 2007 7:40 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
I have a deep, sick feeling the MFY are going to get Santana for Kennedy,Cabrera and not very much more.

by Matzushocka on Nov 29, 2007 8:07 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Kennedy/Cabrera/2 prospects who's names are not Hughes, Jaba, Tabata or Jackson are not even close to Coco/Lester/Lowrie/Masterson.

If this is all the MFY have to offer, someone start sizing up the new Sox unis for our new man Johan.

Twins want the most they can get, Yankees will have to give up one of their "precious" Hughes or Jaba to get Santana.

Actually, I think this is probably already out there.

If the Sox get Santana, the Yankees next five seasons are OVER.  Start rebuilding.

The Yankees future depends on getting Santana to match Beckett, which in the playoffs still is not enough.

by SoxAcumen on Nov 29, 2007 8:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Exactly, Coco/Cabrera are a wash (with Cabrera probably getting the edge, just barely thou as Coco has a higher ceiling if he ever bounces back to the development he was experiencing with Cleveland), Kennedy/Lester are a wash (as much as Yanks want to argue Kennedy is up there with Joba and Hughes, the fact is he overperformed in a small sample size last season and prior to the overperformance was considered the level as Lester if not actually lower). Lowrie/Masterson (or Bowden) > (and by greater I mean MUCH greater) then 2 no name prospects. Their 2 prospects would basically be just throw ins. If anyone could be considered just a throw in from the Sox side, it would actually be Coco, Jed and Masterson (or Bowden) are both top level prospects. Yanks current offer doesn't even come close to the Sox. Now, if they flinch and add Joba/Hughes/Cano....then it's a different story

by Realistic on Nov 30, 2007 10:38 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Coco has a higher VORP than Melky (11-something to 9 something) and is a MUCH better defender (though Melky's not bad). It's surprising, based on all the hand-wringing we Sox fans do whenever Coco is on deck in a two-out rally and all the self-assured gloating Yankee fans do about the almighty Melky, but I think Coco actually has the edge.

I'm not sure I buy that Kennedy = Lester. I think he's Yankee hype.

I do agree that Lowrie has tremendous value. He could be their starting SS for the next five years. He's got a pretty good glove and a very good bat.

I've read speculation that the Twins were primarily after position players (though maybe that changed after the Delmon deal), and Coco plus Lowrie is better than anything the Yanks would offer on that front (not including Cano, obviously). I think we could get this done, though I wouldn't be too surprised if team X swooped in and offered the farm.

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Nov 30, 2007 12:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
I was psyched when we got Coco and think he's better than what we've seen. I also think Melky is way over rated.

But, Melky has got one big thing going for him over Coco.

Melky just turned 23. Coco just turned 28.

Since they are (relatively) comparable players, I'd give a decent edge to Cabrera solely due to age... and I'd guess that the Twins would, too.

by Hughie Jennings on Nov 30, 2007 4:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
There seem to be a bevy of media reports saying that the Sox have offered Lester et al.  Where there is smoke, there is usually fire.

I may be in the minority in my feeling that there are no untouchables in the Big Three (Ellsbury, Buchholz, and Lester) and that they will be willing to party with any ONE of them for Santana.  

Most of Sox Nation thinks Ellsbury is an indispensable part of the Sox for years to come.  Even though reports are that Theo is enamored with him, I'm sure he realizes that if a slap hitter with good speed is the only thing stading between his team and the best young left handed pitcher in the game, he will make that trade any day of the week.

I was just watching "New England Sports Tonight" and Tony Massarotti made the excellent point that the image of Ellsbury is greater than the actual player.  He's dynamic, but really can just poke singles and doubles and run like the dickens.  I think this is a great point and although the prospect of having Ellsbury roaming the outfield of Fenway, acquiring possibly the best pitcher in the game is much more valuable than a leadoff hitter.

If the Yanks step their offer up and propose something like Hughes, Kennedy, and others than the Sox could have to put too much into the pot.  But if not, I say you do the deal not now.  But yesterday.

by Red Peltic on Nov 29, 2007 10:48 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
I agree about Ellsbury.  Unless he's the 2nd coming of Ty Cobb, he's basically a singles hitter who you hope develops gap power and hits 40+ doubles a season.  In saying that though, good consistent leadoff hitters are a very rare commodity.  If his OBP is around .385 and eventually displays gold glove caliber cf play then its a valuable commodity in any measurement.
But, hey this is Santana we are talking about.  I'd love to have.  NY is dreaming if they think Kennedy, Melky and scrubs will do it.  They'll need to throw in Joba or Hughes also.

Funny thing is if we don't make this trade, we still have all those great young players and a cf we can trade for catching and middle relief.

by sydneysox on Nov 29, 2007 11:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Thats my opinion on that too, if it comes down to Buchh. or Elssbury I think you have to trade Jacoby because what is easier to find, a speedy slap hitter or young talented pitcher that has the make-up to be an ace? I'll take Clay.
"Why not us?"

by reversecursing on Nov 29, 2007 11:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Typo
Ellsbury
"Why not us?"

by reversecursing on Nov 29, 2007 11:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

my bold prediction
i predict that when its all said and done, santana will end up in minnesota

by Tippecanoe on Nov 29, 2007 11:30 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: my bold prediction
i just cant agree there. the twins allready made an effort to sign santana to an extension which sent a strong message that they intend to stock up the farm with him if theyr not going to be able to sign him past next year.

by spinz on Nov 30, 2007 12:35 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

my concern is Santana's health
hasn't he broken down from time to time the last couple years?

Anyone have info on that?

by jwp on Nov 30, 2007 12:11 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: my concern is Santana's health
Nope.  No injuries to speak of.  He's had 33-34 starts each of the last four years.  That's better than most pitchers.  

As to his quality level: in 2007, we see a bit of a drop off in giving up HRs and a slightly higher ERA for him than his previous three years.  But his WHIP was excellent - better than anybody not named Peavy, and Peavy was only ahead by 1.06 to 1.07.  To put this in perspective, Sabathia and Beckett both had WHIPs at 1.14.  I thought Santana was one of the best pitchers in the AL last year and was a bit surprised he didn't get more love in the Cy Young voting.  

It's worth saying that Josh Beckett got nearly 1.5 runs/game more in run support than Santana did.  Santana on the Sox would probably win 20 games by Labor Day.  Peavy is his only competition for the title of "best pitcher in baseball".    

by RickD on Nov 30, 2007 12:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
In all honesty, I think this is just a way for the Sox to make sure that Hughes pitches in Minnesota and not Yankee stadium.

I think Theo is playing around with the Twins working to get the yankees up to a maximum of talent.

The Boss jr. needs to make his mark and he will not be out traded by his hated rivals.

Santana is a Yank, Hugh is a Twin and we still win the WS in 08.

by SoxAcumen on Nov 30, 2007 1:17 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
The Twins have to trade Santanta before Opening Day,because if Johan mid-season declined a trade,  he'd be closer to free agency and more $$$ the Twins would be screwed. I said it the other day and now Gammons is saying it, if we sign Johan to some 20 mill per deal,Beckett's deal will have to be re-worked. I think the MFY end up with Johan when Hughes is added.

by Matzushocka on Nov 30, 2007 7:09 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Agree with this.  By midseason, Santana will probably already be thinking free agency.  

by RickD on Nov 30, 2007 12:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Twins fans opinion.

I'm a Twins fan and happened to stumble over here from the Twinkietown blog.  

I'm hoping the above trade doesn't happen.  To make it worth it the Twins need to acquire two guys who are basically proven to have star potential.  I like getting Ellsbury, Lester, and Lowry from you guys.  I'm still hoping that some of you are right and this is a way to push up the Yankees trade.  The latest rumor from a "yankee source"  is Hughes, Cabrera, and Kennedy.  I like that but am still hoping there might be a chance to get a Hughes and Cano package.  

The other thing is that the Twins can afford to keep Santana.  I'm not saying they'll resign him but if the Twins can pick up a few parts seperate from a Santana trade like possibly a guy like Crisp from you guys or Rowand off the free agent market we could really contend this year.

I'm not just being a homer either, if Liriano comes back healthy that 1 2 punch of Santana Liriano would be one of the best in the league.  That along with our other young pitchers could really give the Twins a chance this year.

+ the Twins would get 2 first round draft picks even if he left as a FA.

All this said I'd prefer to see him traded high for a huge package, preferably to an NL team so I won't have to see him as much not in a Twins uniform.  

I do have to say my hatred for the Yankees would make me want to see you guys with Santana over them.  Problem is then we have to face that too.

Last point.  what do you think of this offer Santana and Rincon for Lester, Youkilis, Crisp, Lowry.  

by halfchest on Nov 30, 2007 9:33 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
This brings up a good point. Twins have to decide if they are and can contend for the title this year. I agree with you that if Liriano healthy is they can compete, but they have to commit to it if they want to go for it, because they only have one year of Santana left. They still have holes to fill if they are going for it and issues to address if they are goign for it.

If not, they have plenty of good young players to rebuild around, I would trade Santana for ready or near ready prospects, and then trade Nathan for more  ready/near ready talent. They could be just one year rebuilding and ready for another run in 2009. In my mind (maybe just cuz I'm a homer), the Sox trade accomplishes this. Coco fills CF until Pridie is ready (or if he puts himself back on the track he was on with Cleveland, he himself fills the CF need), give Jed and IF position and he should be ready and performing mid 2007 ready to take full duties for 2008. Lester and Bowden would both settle in 2007 preping them to both be successful SP for 2008 to fill the hole Santana leaves and a 1-2-3 of Liriano Lester and Bowden could potentially be deadly if both Lester and Bowden live up to their potential

by Realistic on Nov 30, 2007 11:06 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Welcome
It's nice to hear from a Twins fan on this. I feel your pain - "we're trading the best pitcher in baseball for three unknowns and Coco frickin Crisp?"

I can't see us trading Youk - that'd leave us with a huge hole at 1st, and no good options to fill it. Maybe if you guys threw in Morneau... (joking)

I'd love to see the Twins make a run at it with Johan. Both he and you fans deserve it. And I'm sure both Johan and the players union would love an all out budding war next off-season. My only concern is whether you guys have enough offense to make a good run. But if Delmon develops like he's supposed to...

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Nov 30, 2007 12:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

"Bidding war"
not "budding war"
Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Nov 30, 2007 12:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Thanks for stopping by to comment.

If Liriano comes back healthy, and Santana + Nathan are held, then the Twins can certainly compete next year. However, barring major improvement from Delmon Young, I don't see them making it past the Tigers and Indians. Both those teams have excellent pitching and superb offenses, so it would take some luck on the part of the Twins to compete effectively with them. I think dealing Santana and Nathan now is the best move for long-term success.

I expect Crisp to bounce back if he goes to the AL Central. His career numbers are good against Cleveland, Detroit, and Chicago (not so much against Kansas, inexplicably). A wrinkle in this is his poor career showing at the Metrodome (.222  .261.292). Crisp's best value is his defense, which became otherworldly this year.

The only NL teams with the prospects and cash to get Santana are the Mets and Dodgers. Minaya doesn't seem keen on parting with Reyes or Wright for Santana, so I don't see them in the mix. The Dodgers have a better chance, and if they want him their talent can beat any other team's offer; however, they need offense more than pitching. The Yankees / Sox look like the best bet for now.

If I were a Twins fan, I'd look for a Crisp/Buchholz/others package. Lester has poor command and is often lucky to make it through 5 innings at 100 pitches. That said, if he masters his control, as happened in the WS game, then he can definitely be an ace pitcher. Ellsbury is overhyped, and the difference between him and Crisp is not as large as people think. Buchholz is a polished, big-league pitcher

As a Sox fan, I don't like the Lester, Youk, Crisp, Lowrie package for Santana, Rincon. I have no interest in Rincon, who regressed immensely last year (5.13 era). The Sox are unlikely to replace Youkilis' production or defense at 1B, and would need much more value to trade him (Neshek at least).

by 0157H7 on Nov 30, 2007 2:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works

To the Twins fan:

  If Youklis is in the mix then the trade will be two players for Santana instead of four.  I do think the Twins are getting a poor deal if Lester and Crisp are part of the deal.  They are good players with some strong tools, but it isn't a fair trade compare to the best southpaw in baseball.  

  The ironic thing, in my opinion is that the Red Sox will offer Buchholz to the A's for Haren in a package, for the reason that the Sox only want one southpaw on their starting staff, I think that is probably the strongest reason they are not offering Buchholz in a package for Santana, stats, sabremetrics, WH/IP all thrown in.

  I still think the Yankees are going to sign Santana, because they can offer the best deals to appeal to all parties in this three way Mexican standoff.

 

by superferret on Nov 30, 2007 2:49 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
I think the Twins have everything to lose and really nothing to gain if they keep playing this game with Santana.

Anyone believe that a completely healthy Twins are  actually going to beat the Tigers or Indians in 08 in the AL Central?  Or beat out the Yankees, AL Central runners up for the Wild Card?

No I.  Twins can bluff about keeping Santana or moving him to the Mets or Dodgers or even the Yanks, they can complain about the packages offered, but in the end if they hold him and they lose. This conversation will not be as favorable in July.

Take the best deal and stop asking for the world.

You, Twins fans/people, are being smacked around in the new game in the MLB, "keep So and So" away from the Yanks and/or Red Sox.  Neither the Sox or Yanks really want Santana for the price his agent is currently asking, 6 years, $130million.  Both are playing chicken seeing who is foolish enough to do something stupid.

IMO, Twins get nothing, hold Santana, lose and then dump him on the Yanks in July for Kennedy and Melky and limp off to Minnesota and dream of all the prospect that could of been.

Sorry, but Twins do not have as great a bargaining position as you think when the Sox and Yanks both really want Dan Haren and his right arm/low cost contract.

by SoxAcumen on Nov 30, 2007 4:45 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

"Dan Haren and his right arm"
I'm not buying the "gentlemen prefer righties" theory. Take a look at the Yanks lineup - Giambi, Cano, Matsui, Abreu, Damon are all lefties. Johan could neutralize half their lineup. And the Sox - Papi, Drew, Ellsbury.

The low-cost contract is certainly appealing. But Santana is the best pitcher in baseball, righty or lefty.

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Nov 30, 2007 5:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: "Dan Haren and his right arm"
Not in Fenway.  Righties do far better in Fenway than Lefties.  

Red Sox will not sign Santana to anything but a 4 year deal with a club option for the 5th.  You can mark that in the books.  

by SoxAcumen on Nov 30, 2007 5:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: "Dan Haren and his right arm"
Looking at the splits of Sox lefties since 88, the "Fenway hurts lefties" meme isn't really supported. Over the last 20 years, all of these LHPs have either had a negligible difference between home and away numbers or had better stats at Fenway: Jon Lester, Hideki Okajima, Darren Oliver, Alan Embree, Jeff Fassero, Casey Fossum, Tony Fossas, Vaughn Eshelman, Jamie Moyer, Zane Smith, Frank Viola, Joe Hesketh, Kevin Morton, Joe Price, Rob Murphy, Bruce Hurst. Three lefties have had considerably worse stats at Fenway: Rheal Cormier, Steve Avery and Pete Schourek. That's 18 versus 3, over the last 20 years. (I didn't pay much attention to guys with extremely small sample sizes)

But whatever. When you're talking about someone of the caliber of Fossum or Avery or Cormier, maybe Fenway will hurt the lefty and favor the righty. But Johan is the best pitcher in baseball. It wouldn't make a difference.

And if Santana agrees to a deal with the Sox, it'll be for 6 years. He is in control of this - he has a full no trade, and he is the best pitcher in baseball over the five years. Check out Jayson Stark's blog on Santana today.

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Nov 30, 2007 6:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: "Dan Haren and his right arm"
  The Red Sox want a southpaw on their starting pitching rotation, they just don't want two southpaws in the rotation.  Fenway is not a Southpaw friendly park, which makes me leery in hyping Santana, his numbers may be the same or go up a bit pitching for the Red Sox, but his strikeout ratio may still save him and put him on a Pedro Martinez 2000 like performance.

  I feel the Red Sox will trade Buchholz and Crisp to Oakland for Haren, but not Lester, for this reason.

  I don't see Santana agreeing to a trade to Boston, when he can get a longer term contract, more money, friendlier southpaw park in the Bronx.

by superferret on Nov 30, 2007 5:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: "Dan Haren and his right arm"
The Sox won't trade Buchholz, even for Haren.  If the Sox don't get Santana, they'll offer the same package of Lester, Coco, Lowrie, and Masterson/Bowden to the A's.  

I wouldn't mind that deal.  Haren is younger than Santana, under contract for a few years, and very cheap.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 30, 2007 8:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: "Dan Haren and his right arm"

 The Red Sox won't have an all righty starting rotation, they need a southpaw, or they going to have Wakefield high and lows in the starting pitching rotation's ERA and WH/IP.  As much as I don't want Buchholz traded, if the Red Sox want Haren, they will give away Buchholz and Crisp and maybe a prospect.  They got to jam lefty batters  with inside pitches, that only at times a southpaw can do. Okajima can't come in to every Yankee game, early to get Giambi or Cano to strikeout.  

  I still think they are upping the ante for Santana to make the Yankees pay, because I don't see Santana agreeing to the contract extension terms that Boston will offer.  

by superferret on Nov 30, 2007 9:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Lester v. Buchholz and Wakefield
Buchholz is their best pitching prospect.  He is pretty close to untouchable.  The Sox aren't going to hold onto Lester just because he is a lefty.  

Who says the Sox won't have or want an all-right-handed rotation?  They had one in 2004: Pedro, Schilling, DLowe, Wake, and Arroyo.  How'd that turn out?  In 2006, St. Louis had a righty dominated rotation (Mulder threw only 93.1 innings) and won the WS.  

You play match-up with your pen, not your rotation.  The Sox' FO will put together the best rotation they can, and that means Buchholz over Lester.  

As for Wake, I'm not sure what your point is.  Over the past two seasons, Lester has posted a 4.68 ERA and 1.57 WHIP.  Wakefield, in the same period, has a 4.71 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.  Also, Lester so far in his career has been better against right-handed hitters.  His career splits:

v. RHH .270 AVG/.360 OBP/.392 SLG
v. LHH .309 AVG/.373 OBP/.537 SLG

Wakefield is tougher on lefties.  Last year LHH hit .246/.326/.390 against Timmy (RHH: .277/.324/.456).  Don't assume that all lefty pitchers are tough on left-handed hitters.  A good pitching staff is made up of the best pitchers, whether they're all righties, lefties, or a mix of both.  Theo won't move Buchholz because, if he does, it'll be a huge mistake.  

 

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 30, 2007 10:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: "Dan Haren and his right arm"
There's some interesting stuff (including park factors in 90's and early 00's) on Fenway here.

I didn't read through it with a fine-tooth comb, but did notice this quote (although I certainly wish they'd elaborate on the topic):

... statistically speaking lefties generally don't do much worse than righties.

by Hughie Jennings on Nov 30, 2007 8:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: "Dan Haren and his right arm"
PS. I'm on board with everybody who's not worried about Santana at Fenway. He's a lefty and even IF lefties are hurt at Fenway in general, we're talking about Johan Santana, not {Mark Redman. http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/redmama01.shtml]

by Hughie Jennings on Nov 30, 2007 8:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Oops

by Hughie Jennings on Nov 30, 2007 8:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: "Dan Haren and his right arm"
    Santana is a great pitcher, as long as he uses the same motion for his change up as his fastball, he will still be a great pitcher.  It is more the risk of what are the Red Sox getting the Santana of 2004?  2006? or the Santana of 2007?  Allegedly he is being much more skittish using his slider, his main strikeout pitch, that you see every  strikeout victim chase as it hits the ground away from the plate.

  Santana may end up with the same stats as he did in 2007, which isn't bad, compare to Schilling's antics, where he only has his smarts left and no power tools to blow away batters.  The problem is that can Santana live up to the Koufaxian expectations everyone in New England is going to demand from him?!?  Instead of "1918" there will be placecards "1965" when Santana pitches.  The criticism of Gagné will be minimal compare if Santana has a season that Pedro had in 2004, which wasn't bad, but wasn't Pedro like either.

by superferret on Nov 30, 2007 10:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: "Dan Haren and his right arm"
Maybe this was all made up...I remember as a kid in Fenway listening to people talk about how Hurst was one of the few guys who did not get massacred in Fenway.

As I said above, we need to find someone who really knows...

Anyone know if Bruce Hurst has a website?

by SoxAcumen on Nov 30, 2007 10:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: "Dan Haren and his right arm"
Look up how many lefties on the 1986 Red Sox team....

by superferret on Dec 1, 2007 1:48 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Nice find Hughie
Who benefits:   It is a common misconception that the Wall only helps right-handed hitters. Right-handed hitters gain more in the home run department, and right-handed pull hitters who loft the ball do improve their numbers. But left-handed batters who can use the inside-out swing to hit the ball to left can add points to their average as well - Wade Boggs practically coined the term "wall double," and Fred Lynn,  Carl Yastrzemski, and of course  Ted Williams all learned to use the Wall.  In 5 of the last 6 years, Fenway has boosted left-handed batting averages more than right-handed averages.

     Among current Red Sox players who experience huge increases in average are Troy O'Leary and Reggie Jefferson.  Historically, O'Leary has had the widest home-road splits, though in 2001 the now-departed Carl Everett batted 114 points higher at home (in 2000, he hit 38 points better on the road).  Rolando Arrojo (2.90 vs. 4.35), Derek Lowe (2.79 vs. 4.50) and Ugueth Urbina (3.25 vs. 4.11) had a significantly lower ERA at home, while Rod Beck and Hideo Nomo did slightly better at home.

Who gets hurt: Flyball pitchers suffer because the Wall in left turns routine flyballs into extra-base hits. Groundball and strikeout pitchers tend to fare much better here - for example, Tom Gordon and Derek Lowe do very well in Fenway. Left-handed dead pull hitters must contend with the vast right field.

     Pedro Martinez had a slightly higher ERA at home (2.63 vs. 2.18), similar to his stellar 2000 Cy Young season (1.84 ERA at home, 1.66 ERA on the road).  Rich Garces and Frank Castillo did significantly better on the road.  

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Dec 1, 2007 11:56 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Nice find Hughie
Sorry, but if you read this article it does nothing to disprove the Fenway/lefty theory.

Again, common sense.  if you pitch inside to a RHanded batter, he will on average pull the ball to the wall.  

This is just pitching 101.  When you want a double play and a RHanded batter is up, you pitch inside to get the batter to hit the ball to the 3rd base side for an easier double play.  When there is a guy on 2nd and a Rhanded batter up, you pitch inside to make sure the ball is hit in front of the batter and the runner cannot advance.

Your article states that RHanded hitters do not do better in Fenway v. Lefties.  Well that might be true, but when facing a LHP, you get all Rhanded hitters and you CANNOT pitch inside on a regular basis or fly balls and line drives that normally would be outs in other parks get smacked off the wall.

Actually, this article does more to help my opinion then yours, when it states that ground ball and strike out pitchers do well in Fenway.  Why? bc the wall is out of the picture.  Plus the second to last line even explains why RHP have a easier time in Fenway bc Lefty hitters can be pitched inside bc of the large Right field.  Further, most managers would understand that a RHanded batter has an advantage over a LHP, the monster, v. a LHanded batter(2nd to last sentence) and stack their lineup with RHanded batters in Fenway against a LHP.

Ive sent this question to the guys at ESPN.  Hopefully one of them will answer it.

by SoxAcumen on Dec 1, 2007 12:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I like stats.
All the stats I've seen (and it's really only what myself and Drugs have looked up) suggest "the lefty's don't do well in Fenway thing" is a myth. If I see more stats that suggest that lefty's do in fact suck at Fenway, then I'll change my mind.

I feel like trying to take a common sense approach to what is in essence a statistical question has an air of truthiness about it.

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Dec 1, 2007 2:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I like stats.
Agreed, and good on the Colbert reference.

by B VT on Dec 1, 2007 5:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Rumor, Rumor:

heard this today...Padres are most likely only going to give Peavy $15 million a year.

How about this...

Peavy for Lester or Buchholz/Coco/Prospect/Prospect?

Anyone?  Bueller?  

I really like Peavy, plus he has 2 years on his deal left.

by SoxAcumen on Nov 30, 2007 4:49 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
I wouldn't make that deal if I was the Padres' GM. They're in a position to contend for the playoffs right now, which, in the NL, means they're in a position to contend for the pennant. And as you noted, Peavy still has 2 years left on his deal, so they don't have to be in a hurry to trade him.

They might as well see if he can carry them to the World Series in 2008. Even if he can't, barring injury, they'll be able to get at least as much for him next year as they could this year.

by RSNexile on Nov 30, 2007 5:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yanks upping the ante?
Looks like the Yanks might give on Hughes.
Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Nov 30, 2007 7:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Yanks upping the ante?
You know, even if that ends up being enough for them to get Santana, the Sox still come out ahead here -- their offer forced the MFY to give up one of their top pitching prospects who they had previously declared off limits.

by RSNexile on Nov 30, 2007 9:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Yanks upping the ante?
This was all a ploy to get the Yanks to deal some of its talent and over pay and lock up the Yanks for 6+ years.

Theo most likely never was really serious about Santana bc of the contract demands.

Dan Haren is the target, if I could bet on it in Vegas.  

by SoxAcumen on Nov 30, 2007 10:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
I feel as if a Lester/Coco/Lowrie/Bowden trade would probably be accepted by the A's for Haren. If not for the Yankees offering Hughes I feel as if the Sox probably would get him, and since the Yankees will be in no such position to offer him to the A's, and Lastings Milledge was just traded from the Mets, the Sox very well might be able to get him.

by gnick55 on Nov 30, 2007 10:51 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
IMO I think its the contract demands that is the sticking point with Theo, not the prospects.

6+ years at $20-25 million is not how the Sox are doing business these days.

If the Yanks get Santana, thats potentially $50 million for 2 players.

by SoxAcumen on Nov 30, 2007 10:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
I don't think the Yanks' bid is high enough yet. If I were Theo, I'd substitute Ellsbury for Crisp and offer a new package of him, Lester, Lowrie, and Masterson / Bowden. If the Yanks are so desperate for Santana, they can be forced to throw in two of their top three. I wouldn't mind getting stuck with Santana if the Sox overbid.

There are several issues that concern the Sox in this process, but payroll should not be one of them. Clement is off payroll, Schilling will join him after this year (Manny may follow, and if he's re-signed it won't be for $20 million). They have a bunch of players making the minimum - Pedroia, Ellsbury, Youks, Manny D, Paps. Ticket prices are rising yet again.

by 0157H7 on Dec 1, 2007 12:15 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
its the length of the contract.  6 years is too many.

Also why pay Johan $20 million when you can go out and trade for a guy who will post very similar numbers, Haren, Bedard or Kazmir, and cost you so much less...which would not piss off your ace Josh Beckett.

by SoxAcumen on Dec 1, 2007 12:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Looks like the MFY could be offering both Hughes and Kennedy, as well as Melky for Santana, though the report also says that "someone following the Yankees situation" said the MFY want to hold out on either Hughes or Kennedy.  Big surprise.  But if this is true then it seems that Theo got them to sweeten the pot way past what they had wanted to do.  I just hope that we stand pat instead of getting into a bidding war.

by B VT on Dec 1, 2007 5:25 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Oops, forgot to mention that's via Rotoworld.  My bad.

by B VT on Dec 1, 2007 5:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
I wouldn't mind us upping the ante a little, just so  the Yanks have to include Hughes and Kennedy and a lesser prospect as well. It's basically no lose for us - as Buster Olney said the other day, even if we offer too much and the Twins catch us off-guard and accept, we could lowball Santana so he'd refuse to waive the no trade.
Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Dec 1, 2007 5:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Tommy: According to this source, the MFY have offered Hughes and Kennedy.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Dec 1, 2007 5:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sweet.
Be interesting if the Mets offer Reyes. That would be huge.  
Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Dec 1, 2007 6:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sweet.
It would be interesting, and if the Sox don't get Santana I'd like to see him in the NL.  But all the reports I've read say the Mets won't trade Reyes.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Dec 1, 2007 6:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Dude, that's the same source that I used.  I think tommy was saying that us upping our offer would make sure that they in fact do offer both, because right now it sounds like there's still some hesitation on the MFY's part

by B VT on Dec 1, 2007 7:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
I read that the Yankee deal will have an expiration date on it, reports are that if the Twins and Yanks can't agree on the third player within the next few days the Yankmes will turn their attention to Dan Haren. Maybe that would allow the Sox to sneak back into the picture.

Although this gives us a little bit of optimism for the Lester, Crisp, Lowrie, Bowden deal, it really is unlikely that the deal doesn't get done. The Yankees have twice cracked when they at said they wouldn't trade Hughes, and also cracked when they said they wouldn't negoiate with A-Rod if he opted out.

by gnick55 on Dec 2, 2007 12:21 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Go for the Jugular
Things have heated up to a boiling point in the trade talks between the Twins, and the Sox / Yankees.

I say it's time to put the knife in.
Take our hard hitting shortstop prosect out of the deal, and add... Buchholz.

The Twins will take that deal no question about it.
It also does a few other things  for us.

  1. We'll have the best rotation in baseball the the greatest chance to win the division, not to mention the WS for the foreseable future.
  2. The Yanks DON'T get Santana and we deal them a crushing blow. Pettitte isn't coming back without Santana-- NO WAY
  3. We keep Ellsbury who will develop into a top 5 center fielder
  4. We can develop this hard hitting shortstop from within-- keep lugo for late in the game defense-- and get out of this rotating door policy at shorstop.
  5. Lastly, we traded Buchholz at his highest possible value.  The kid pitched 1 INCREDIBLE no hitter, but honestly we love him for more than he's probably worth.  He may even have arm problems-- theo kept him off the post season roster due to a strained arm.  Who knows what he really turns into.
In return we get arguably the 2nd best pitcher in the game.

I smell blood

by mpieretti on Dec 2, 2007 12:28 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Go for the Jugular
It won't happen for two reasons:

First, there's no way the Sox will trade Buchholz (nor should they).  He is a legit top-of-the-rotation prospect, and as such is more valuable than anyone they have (including Ellsbury).  

Secondly, everything I've read seems to imply that Lowrie projects to be more of a second baseman than shortstop.  I'm sure the Twins know that.  As a second baseman, Lowrie is blocked by PedROYa.  He has value as trade bait, but will likely never play for the Sox.  

I believe the Sox should hold firm to their offer.  The Twins are over a barrel.  They have a cheap billionaire owner who won't pay Santana, so they have to make a deal.  Only two teams are in the race.  Minnesota is playing this for all it's worth, which is what they should do.  But the Sox' offer is fair (about 70 cents on the dollar), and they shouldn't keep throwing players into the deal just because the MFY are the other team.  If Minnesota doesn't like the Sox' offer, Theo and company should turn their efforts toward acquiring Dan Haren.

Finally, while Santana is a great pitcher, there is some downside to getting him (assuming he'll waive his no-trade and come to Boston).  He'll cost $20+ million and want at least six years.  That will not only limit the Sox' payroll flexibility, it will set a bad precedent because Boston will have to overpay Josh Beckett to keep him.    

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Dec 2, 2007 2:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Santana to Sox Trade in the Works
Well at 2:12 today espn reported that the Sox added Ellsbury into the mix...
That has certainly sent the boston.com boards into a tizzy!!!

I personally would have sweetend the deal with Buchholz over Ellsbury.  How many starting pitchers can one team have?

Ellsbury is a true lead off man-- the only one on the team.

What are the chances Buchholz is a 20 game winner next year?
1 in 10 would be a long shot

Though I have to say the Sox win either way

xxCRACKxx flies the ball into the cool October night...

by mpieretti on Dec 2, 2007 3:34 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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