OTM.com Top Prospects: Who's at 3?

by Randy Booth on Nov 24, 2007 12:07 PM EST in News

Over 100 votes have decided who OTM.com's No. 1 prospect should be: Jacoby Ellsbury. It was a landslide, really. Ellsbury earned 82 votes, 70% of the total to take the top spot. [Editor's Note: I voted for Ellsbury. Allen's a chump and voted for Clay Buchholz]

Now it's a little harder, though. Who should slide in behind Buchholz at the No. 3 spot? There's about four prospects that could earn that honor:

MIF Jed Lowrie (SoxProspects.com Player Profile)
RHP Justin Masterson (SoxProspects.com Player Profile)
RHP Michael Bowden (SoxProspects.com Player Profile)
1B Lars Anderson (SoxProspects.com Player Profile)

In my personal opinion, Anderson isn't quite in the No. 3 league yet, but, like a lot of these guys, his ceiling is really high. That really doesn't say anything though because this is a prospects list; everything is factored in (potential, current ability, etc.).

I really like Bowden, but I think he lost some ground last season. After his promotion to Portland he began to struggle. I still think he can turn it around and be a great pitcher, though. I expect him to head back to Portland at the start of the season and be quickly promoted to Pawtucket.

Masterson has a lot of talent, but hasn't really dominated any league that he's pitched in outside of Lowell. His Lancaster ERA was 4.33 in 95.2 innings. His Portland ERA was almost the same thing, 4.34 in only 58.0 innings. However, his jump to Portland proved to be better because his strikeouts rose while his hits decreased. Masterson should join the Sea Dogs at the start of the '08 season.

Lowrie, a very similiar player to our own Rookie of the Year Dustin Pedroia, had his stock rise in 2007. After hitting .262 in Wilmington in 2006, Lowrie was promoted to Pawtucket in '07 after batting .297 in Portland. At the AAA level, Lowrie's home runs rose (5 HR in 160 ABs vs. 8 HR in 337 ABs) but his walks dropped (.356 OBP). Lowrie will be an interesting player to watch this season as he returns to Pawtucket and tries to find a spot in the Boston lineup.

To vote in the poll, click "Entry Link" at the bottom. If you choose "Other," please leave a comment saying who.

Poll

Who should be No. 3 on OTM's Top Prospects List?

Jed Lowrie

48 votes

Justin Masterson

32 votes

Michael Bowden

15 votes

Lars Anderson

6 votes

Other

5 votes

106 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 21 comments

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Comments

Masterson

Anderson is a good prospect, but in my mind he's still to far away to be #3. Bowden has better upside than Masterson (from what I've heard), but Masterson had a better season and has a higher likelihood of reaching his potential. So, for me, it's between Masterson and Lowrie. And I don't see a spot for Lowrie on our club, so I'll pick Masterson.

3-6: Masterson, Lowrie, Bowden, Anderson.

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Nov 24, 2007 12:12 PM EST 0 recs

Re: Masterson

Hmm... I have to agree with you on that one.

"SK: Hey, imagine what Steinbrenner's statue'll be doing. SO: Cast in bronze with his wallet out."

by mmmsox on Nov 24, 2007 5:05 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: Masterson

Your 3-6 brings me to another point. If the voting is clear, then we may be able to rank 4, 5, 6 without making a new topic.

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Nov 24, 2007 5:08 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: Masterson

Hmmn - I know there´s only limited science to this, but unless it´s really clear then surely at least the last person in each group (if not the last couple) should go against the next crop?

Perhaps anyone getting less than 25% of the vote (if in groups of 4; 20%/5) should be rolled into the next poll ...

Okay - I´ll stop overcomplicating now, but I am enjoying this from afar.

Jez
On holiday in Buenos Aires

by CountyJez on Nov 25, 2007 11:17 AM EST up 0 recs

Re: Masterson

You didn't overcomplicate it at all. It actually helps me make a little more sense out of it.

We'll do it like this. If the voting continues this way (Lowrie-44, Mastesron-31, Bowden-16, Anderson-1), then Lowrie will take 3rd, Masterson 4th and then Bowden, Anderson and two more will take place for the next poll. Is that what you mean?

I like that idea a lot.

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Nov 25, 2007 12:03 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: Masterson

That´s what I had in mind! :-)

Jez

by CountyJez on Nov 27, 2007 3:12 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: OTM.com Top Prospects: Who's at 3?

I actually voted for Anderson. The Sox have plenty of young players who hit for high average and have lots of speed, but few with the type of power Anderson does. Yes he is much less polished then the rest of the group but his raw talent makes me feel good about putting him #3.

by gnick55 on Nov 24, 2007 7:39 PM EST 0 recs

Re: OTM.com Top Prospects: Who's at 3?

It's simply a matter of who you would draft first if you were to draft today.

Hence, I voted Buchholz over Ellsbury and Bowden for #3. Frontline pitchers are the coin of the realm these days.

by Hughie Jennings on Nov 24, 2007 10:55 PM EST 0 recs

Re: OTM.com Top Prospects: Who's at 3?

I also voted Bowden.

With your theory, what about Masterson?

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Nov 24, 2007 11:59 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: OTM.com Top Prospects: Who's at 3?

Masterson comes after Bowden, followed by Lowrie, then Anderson, in this case. That's my take. Although Lowrie is probably the lowest ceiling player discussed so far (probably? eh, definitely).

by Hughie Jennings on Nov 26, 2007 12:18 AM EST up 0 recs

Re: OTM.com Top Prospects: Who's at 3?

I think I went Masterson, though others have made good points with Bowden being just 20.

by Allen Chace on Nov 26, 2007 12:43 AM EST up 0 recs

Re: OTM.com Top Prospects: Who's at 3?

I voted for Bowden as well. In looking at numbers, he and Masterson were nearly identical in Portland - ERA, BB/IP, K/IP, etc. The biggest difference, numbers wise, that could be sited between them is that Masterson got strikeouts a little more frequently and walked batters ever so slightly less frequently. Balance that out with the fact that Bowden's a year and a half younger and I'd say he just edges Masterson out. My order would be Bowden, Lowrie, Masterson, Anderson.

by B VT on Nov 25, 2007 6:48 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: OTM.com Top Prospects: Who's at 3?

I sincerely hope that everyone knew I was a chump before voting for Buch.

That being said, I still agree with me.

by Allen Chace on Nov 25, 2007 1:07 AM EST 0 recs

Re: OTM.com Top Prospects: Who's at 3?

I'll vote Lowrie. Neither Bowden nor Masterson have dominated the minors in the way that Buchholz did, and they are far from reaching the majors. Anderson also has a lot to prove, although he's young and provides something the organization desperately needs long-term - power. If he were putting up those numbers in AA I'd probably pick him 3rd.

Lowrie gets the nod because he hits well and provides good slugging for a middle-infielder. He's also the closest to the majors, which affects his trade value and overall value to the team. If he hits as well in the majors as in Pawtucket (.300/.356/.506) he'd be a star, like Robinson Cano.

I expect that Lowrie will be called up later this season, like Ellsbury in 07 and Pedroia in 06. Depending on his performance and Lugo's, he might take over SS or 2B (with Pedroia moving to SS) in 2008.

by 0157H7 on Nov 25, 2007 3:29 PM EST 0 recs

Re: OTM.com Top Prospects: Who's at 3?

Great Points. I voted for Lowrie too.
I'm curious as to who the 3 voters who selected "other" had in mind

by Schulz on Nov 25, 2007 6:17 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: OTM.com Top Prospects: Who's at 3?

I meant to say, Lowrie might take over in 2009; 2008 is very premature, and only likely in case of severe injury.

by 0157H7 on Nov 25, 2007 11:04 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: OTM.com Top Prospects: Who's at 3?

If Lugo has another sub .250 season I'd say Lowrie is our 2009 opening day starter at SS.

by gnick55 on Nov 25, 2007 10:53 PM EST 0 recs

Re: OTM.com Top Prospects: Who's at 3?

I too go with Lowrie. I kind of like his style and the fact that he can hit from both sides of the plate offers "more" player for less.

As for the comment about him not having a spot on the MLB team... I say 'bah humbug!' It costs us very little to give the guy a game or two to see what he truly has. They've done this with many other prospects and why not one more time. Where would this topic be if it were Ellsbury who 'faultered' versus succeeding in his orginal call up? Consider the facts.

As 'gnick55' posted... I wouldn't wait for 2009 for Lowrie. I give Lugo until July 1st to prove himself this year. They can't wait...

my two cents.

The Red Head

by the red head on Nov 26, 2007 12:35 PM EST 0 recs