[editor's note, by Allen Chace] I can take subtle hints, even if they're from ecoli.

ll be the first to admit A-Rod is a great player, a first-ballot Hall of Famer.  But I really don't want the Red Sox to sign him, even if Mike Lowell leaves.  

Part of my reason for not wanting the Sox to sign A-Rod is a visceral disdain for a player known as Slappy McBluelips.  Most importantly, I think signing A-Rod to a high-priced, long-term contract is a bad baseball move.  Here are my reasons for hoping the Sox pass on A-Rod:  

(1) He isn't worth the money
There is no way A-Rod or any other player is worth $30+ million.  The Red Sox don't have unlimited money, and they shouldn't invest 20% or more of their payroll in one player.  $30 million dollars will buy a team two All-Star caliber players or three very good players.  

The MFY, who have more resources than the Sox, reached their payroll limit because of the luxury tax MLB imposes on high payrolls.  Even big market teams need payroll flexibility, which is why the MFY, Sox, Angels, etc. are reluctant to trade prospects or young players unless they get the right deal.  

(2) Even with a 4-year contract, Lowell is a much better fit
I know a lot of people who post on this site would be reluctant to give Mike Lowell even a 4-year contract.  Why?  A-Rod will cost $30-35 million and is looking for 7 or more years.  Lowell is only one year older than A-Rod and has been very durable over his career.  If the Sox aren't willing to pay Lowell until he is 37, why pay A-Rod a fortune when he is 38-42?  Sure, as I said before, A-Rod is a better player than Lowell--but he isn't $15-20 million per year better.    

(3) A-Rod's troubles in NYC should be a warning to the Sox
New York is hard place to play, but Boston is tougher.  The Sox are a regional team with a rabid fanbase and writers who love to take potshots at star players.  Players have a hard time going out without being bothered (David Wells said it was impossible to sit in a restaurant or bar without hordes of people descending on him).  Attention of this kind is OK when players or the team is doing well.  But when things aren't ...   You have to be very thick-skinned to play for the Red Sox.  Does anyone think A-Rod fits this description?    

New York City is more cosmopolitan than Boston, has two teams, and more than half the people on the street could care less about baseball.  There are so many other celebrities, which creates space for pro athletes to go about their business (again, see David Wells).  In short, it's a much easier place to be a player; yet A-Rod had trouble.

(4) The Sox don't need A-Rod to put them over the top
Last time I checked, Boston had won two titles without "the game's best player."  Getting beyond A-Rod's reputation as "The Cooler" is the fact that he has never been popular with his teammates.  That doesn't seem to be the case with Mike Lowell, who is very popular.

A-Rod's post-season troubles are well known.  Just in case you haven't seen the numbers, since Game 3 of the 2004 ALCS, A-Rod has hit .133 AVG in 60 ABs with 1 double, 1 HR, and 1 RBI (19 strikeouts).  Since 2005, A-Rod is 0 for 20 with runners on base, and half of those ABs ended with a strikeout.  (In the 2007 post-season, Julio Lugo hit .271 AVG/.340 OBP, scored 7 runs and drove in 3--we all know what Mike Lowell did).

(5) Replacing Manny right now is not imperative
Manny's production will be hard to replace.  But, 2008 isn't necessarily Manny's last year on the Sox.  I believe the team holds two option years at $20 million per.  If Manny is healthy and hits well, I expect him to be back in '09 and maybe even 2010.  Even if the Sox cut Manny loose, they might be able to off-set his loss via free agency (next year's crop of free agents is much better) or via a trade.  It is not imperative to replace Manny with A-Rod.  

In my opinion, the Sox should pass on A-Rod.  I'm still hoping they re-sign Mike Lowell for 3-4 years at $36-56 million, a bargain compared to what they'd pay for Slappy and all of his baggage.