World Series. Boston and Colorado. Tonight. Y'know. Don't miss it.

by Allen Chace on Oct 24, 2007 3:53 AM EDT in Open Thread Comment 36 comments

David Ortiz takes infield practice. Scared? Don't be. Just another sign that we're in the World Series. Y'know, just in case you needed one.

AP Photo/Elise Amendola

First off, these are not your father's Rockies. Because, in your father's day, there were no Rockies. Young upstarts, blah blah blah. Believe it or not, I had some worse jokes prepared.

None of that means anything, because this is a tough team we're up against. They've been playing red hot baseball for the past 4-6 years if I've been hearing those people on ESPN properly.

A warning. Expect no sympathy if we lose. We've become the New Evil Empire to most of our baseball fan "brethren". They're free to feel that way. I've got a thousand arguments for them, though they're not likely to be willing to hear them. As for me, I'd prefer for them to call us the: "Money-grubbing juggernaut that dispenses fear and clam chowder." Other nickname suggestions? "New Evil Empire" or "Evil Empire II" only serve as examples of unoriginal thinking.

Back to those Rockies, which is the true focus here. Those fans telling you that Troy Tulowitzki is and/or will be the best defensive SS in the ML are not exaggerating. The ones touting Matt Holliday as NL MVP? Not so crazy. The ones who enjoy the distraction Manny Corpas and a water bottle created? Completely sane.

What've we got going for us? Inexplicably, the Rockies have chosen to throw Aaron Cook (1.337 WHIP) in Game 4 rather than young Franklin Morales (1.22 WHIP). The until-recently injured Aaron Cook, who hasn't started a competitive game since Reagan was president. He did have a successful start against the Sox this year, ending up the tough-luck loser against Tim Wakefield, but it seems strange to go on that rather than Franklin Morales's recent success (his lackluster postseason notwithstanding). I don't know. Any Rockies' fans want to chime in on this?

Rockies' Game 1 starter, Jeff Francis, had no real home/away splits this season. He pitched effectively against us at Fenway this season, in undoubtedly one of Josh Beckett's worst starts all season. I'd not bank on Francis pitching worse than he did, though I am counting on Josh Beckett to pitch far better.

Rockies Offense:

Runs: 860, #2 in the NL.
OBP: .354, #1 in the NL.
BB: 622, #2 in the NL.
SLG: .437, #4 in the NL.

Bottom line is, these guys score runs, and it's not fluky. They get on-base like no one's business and do a better than average job of knocking those on base in with XBHs (see: SLG).

Rockies Bullpen:

Yep, they have one of those too.
Manny Corpas and Brian Fuentes serve as their two-headed monster at the end. (Orioles fans may not believe it, but LaTroy Hawkins could make a strong argument for a three-headed beast.)
Jeremy Affeldt will most likely be called upon to retire J.D. Drew or David Ortiz in tough spots. It's a little like us calling on Javier Lopez to do the same against Todd Helton or Brad Hawpe (i.e. Affeldt's splits this season do not support him as a LOOGY).

There may be some more analysis here at some point. As it is, this is probably the longest post I've written in awhile that didn't turn completely self-indulgent.

I dunno. Anyway, your pregame thoughts, if you please. And don't forget to suggest a more creative nickname for the team that emphasizes the audacity of spending money on professional baseball players.

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Re: World Series. Boston and Colorado. Tonight. Y'

Is this that baseball game all the kids are talking about tonight?

Given Ellsbury's starting, any guesses as to the order?

I'd kinda like to see Pedroia, Ellsbury, Youk, Manny, Papi, Lowell, 'tek, Drew, Lugo.

Seems like Tito's gotta move Jacoby up in the order.

by sdkramer.otm on Oct 24, 2007 10:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: World Series. Boston and Colorado. Tonight. Y'

No. NO! Leave our 1-5. It's been working (half way through the last series I might have suggested moving DP to the 8-slot, but I'll leave him lead-off for now :-) ).

Ellsbury to bat 8. And I'd put Drew before Varitek too. And Papi 3. So:

DP, Youk, Papi, Manny, Lowell, Drew, Tek, Ellsbury, Lugo.

In Colorado, perhaps we'll see Ellsbury up at 1 or 2 with Youk, Papi, Manny, Lowell batting 3/4/5 (in that order unless Lowell sits, in which case Youk bats 5).

And I'd love to see a Dice-K HR! Might have to wait a while for that :-)

Jez

by CountyJez on Oct 24, 2007 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: World Series. Boston and Colorado. Tonight. Y'

I don't like Ellsbury in the slow part of the order with Tek and Lugo. Maybe 9 to serve as another top of the order batter.

by sdkramer.otm on Oct 24, 2007 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: World Series. Boston and Colorado. Tonight. Y'

Yeah i want ellsbury batting 9th. Because then he leads seemlessly into the top of the order, ellsbury/pedroia/youkilis

by spinz on Oct 24, 2007 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: World Series. Boston and Colorado. Tonight. Y'

You got your wish -- looks like he's batting 9th and Tek is 6th.

by dave in CT on Oct 24, 2007 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: World Series. Boston and Colorado. Tonight. Y'

Want to see a Dice-K home run?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZZ00nL9BQM

by sdkramer.otm on Oct 24, 2007 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: World Series. Boston and Colorado. Tonight. Y'

Nice. Of course, I meant in Coors Field :-)

Jez

by CountyJez on Oct 24, 2007 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: World Series. Boston and Colorado. Tonight. Y'

I think you have to leave the top 5, all of whom have thrived in their spots all season.

Scrappy Doo, Dustin Pedroia
Yoouk
Big Papi
Manny
Lowell
Drew; been hitting well lately. OBP always good.

This is the point where I'd diverge

Ellsbury; electric speed. might get in scoring position for a 'Tek single.
"The Human Windmill", Capt'n 'Tek
Pokey... err, Lugo.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Oct 24, 2007 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Heh heh

"Jeter is playing golf. This is better."

Bottom 9th B:1 S:0 O:0 With Bill Mueller batting, Dave Roberts steals (1) 2nd base.

by britsoxfan on Oct 24, 2007 10:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Heh heh

More Proof that Angels fans are the biggest morons ever: In an acrimonious thread about how much the team should bid for A-Rod there's this comment: "A-Rod is one player who did not change New York's fortunes. Why assume it will here-even for crazy money?"

I leave ya'll to sort that one out.

You can take the boy outta Boston, but you can't take the Boston outta the boy.

by B Cap on Oct 24, 2007 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Heh heh

I think what he's trying to say is that A-Rod has yet to make a team better ... in fact, after he left Seattle and Texas, both of those teams posted better records. Why that is, who knows.

He may, individually, be the best player in the game, but there seems to be something lacking in his ability to make a team better. Is it because of all the salary he sucks up? Is it his ego? Dunno. But I'd take a Mike Lowell over A-Rod any day.

by dave in CT on Oct 24, 2007 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Heh heh

At this point, it could be because you can get three solid-to-very-good every day players for what A-Rod is paid.

Who would you rather have -- a guy who will hit .300 with 50 HR, or three guys who will each hit .280-.300 with 20 HR and play all-world defense?

If money is no object, the answer is "both," but since that only applies to the MFY, the smart move is to take the three solid players.

by RSNexile on Oct 24, 2007 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My Point

is that without A-Rod would the Yanks have even made the post-season this year? I doubt it.

You can take the boy outta Boston, but you can't take the Boston outta the boy.

by B Cap on Oct 24, 2007 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: My Point

That's not the issue. As I said, the MFY are a special case because they'll spend whatever they need to build the best roster they can. Moreno's not about to take on a $140M payroll, so if the Angels signed A-Rod, the question is who they would have to get rid of to pay for A-Rod. And that would make them weaker at two or three other positions, thus potentially negating any advantage they'd gain by signing A-Rod.

I'd argue that the only two teams that can really afford A-Rod are the MFY and us. And we can only afford him if Lowell and Schilling both go elsewhere, and we get rid of either Lugo or Drew (or both) and replace them with much cheaper alternatives. He's not worth $30M/year for us.

If A-Rod ever wants to be a winner, he's going to have to be willing to settle for less money than he can get.

by RSNexile on Oct 24, 2007 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Heh heh

Yeah, the question with ARod is not whether he deserves to be the highest paid position player in the league (he does), but rather how much more he should get than the average player. After all, the Sox got far more production per dollar out of Lowell than the Yankees did out of ARod.

The knock on ARod is that he doesn't hit quality pitching well and doesn't perform in the postseason particularly well. Both of those qualities he lacks are qualities we are lucky to have in both Manny and Papi.

I still don't think ARod is actually going to leave New York. Since the Rangers are paying a good part of his salary, the Yankees actually have a reasonably good deal for his services. For him to get the same salary from a different team, said team would have to be willing to pay at least $7 million more per year than the Yankees have been willing to pay him for the past couple years. Somehow I don't think that works out.

But hey, I never thought JD Drew would get the contract he did, so what do I know?

by RickD on Oct 24, 2007 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Batting order

David and Manny were red hot in the opening of the series and Pedroia and Youklis turned red hot while David and Manny cooled late in the series. Maybe a day or two off will bring them all to a boil together. Varitek also heated up with some rest, indicating that perhaps a new catcher next year who could spell him every third or fourth day would be better than having Mirabelli, who is an offensive liability.

As far as Drew is concerned, he got some hits, but he tries to pull nearly everything and hits a lot of ground balls to the first base side. Lots of inning ending double plays. Lugo tends to do the same from the right hand side but hits to the shortstop side.

I would like to see Ellsbury in the slot where Drew is now and bat Drew after Varitek. Not as likely to hit into as many double plays from there.

by Longsuffering on Oct 24, 2007 12:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The Hater Nickname Challenge

2 rings in 90 years, yep that's just exactly like 26. Whatever.

I do like Chowda Empire, the Tea Party terror, The Cream Pie Killers, The Crab Cake Crushers, ...

You know what I'll continue that thought after I take my lunch break.

by sdkramer.otm on Oct 24, 2007 12:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: World Series. Boston and Colorado. Tonight. Y'

Has anybody noticed that the nay-sayers that were talking about how doomed the Sox were after game 4 haven't been around recently? Maybe they have and I've just been reading the wrong posts, but hopefully they've been humbled and are too ashamed of their lack of faith to say anything. The same people that were claiming the AL East was going to be won by the Yankees back in September.

Anyways, I haven't posted a lot on the site recently, but read it everyday and just thought I'd throw my two cents in. It's going to be a great series and I predict the Sox in 6. I gotta assume the Rockies can pull off two victories (at least at home) with the players they have and how great they've been playing. I'd also like to see another celebration at Fenway so I'm hoping it's not done in 4 or 5 games. Plus the more games they have the more reasons I have to be out drinking!

by DougieGoingDeep on Oct 24, 2007 1:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I noticed that too

Where's NG?

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Oct 24, 2007 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: I noticed that too

I'm here lurking because I only feel compelled to post when I am pissed-off at the team. I am currently not that way, and hopefully can be left in my calm, contented state for at least 5 more days! Hopefully!

The reason I said 5 days and not more is I feel if the Sox are gong to win this, they must keep up the emotional high that they have currently achieved as they did in 2004. If they lose any games, I think the party MAY?? be over.

Now that you have baited me out of my lurk status, let me ask this question, which is a remnant feeling from game 7. Is anyone else around here pissed off at the way Francona managed and the way Lugo played in game 7 despite the fortunate development late in the game?? I almost lost it when Lugo was not stealing on 1st or second pitches early in the game with men on 1st and 3rd. When he did try, the ball was hit and a double play resulted. What were they holding him back for. As for the dropped pop-up, errrrr! But enough of that.

by NG on Oct 24, 2007 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: I noticed that too

I was screaming to send Lugo on the 0-1 pitch. I figured we should have had a full on proper gamble and tried to get Ellsbury home on the throw to 2nd too!

Maybe madness, maybe genius - we'll never know ...

Jez

by CountyJez on Oct 24, 2007 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hi NG

I don't mean to pick on you. I kid because I care.

Sending out Oki for the 8th inning in Game 7 drove me nuts. And Lugo should've had that pop up - I yelled so loud that both my cats hid behind the couch. I don't exactly remember the stolen base opportunity, though I wonder if Francona would give him the green light in Game 7 of the playoffs.

Tito strikes me as very Torre-esque. ("Torrian"?) Not the greatest tactician, but a whiz at keeping guys loose and prepared to win.

I'm not as worried about needing to sweep. The Rockies had HUGE momentum before their big layoff. The pressure is on them big-time. The Sox have proven that they can come up big when it counts. And we'll have Beckett for three starts if needed (at least I think that's what leaving Wake off means).

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Oct 24, 2007 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Hi NG

a) yes, Francona screwed up sending out Oki for the 8th.
b) yes, Lugo should not have been the one trying to catch the Lofton pop-up. That blame can also be shared by Manny, but it was really Lugo's fault.

The series probably won't be a sweep, but the Sox have better clutch pitching and I think they should win.

by RickD on Oct 24, 2007 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Hi NG

I also thought Tito kept Dice-K in way too long. I was pacing like a madman in the 5th inning.

But you know, all of those "mistakes" never amounted to anything. somehow the sox avoided the consequences. I think Tito lucked out on those calls, but overall, i think he's obviously doing a good job.

by dave in CT on Oct 24, 2007 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

NL West fan

... and have been closely following the Rockies since the beginning of their 21 out of 22 run, mainly because 7 of those early wins were against my Dodgers. :(

Don't take the Rockies lightly, they are a solid team that played in a division which had four teams play over .500 ball. And during their stretch run, all 21 of those wins have been against teams with winning records. They beat the beat Peavy, Webb and Hamels in big games. They won't be intimidated facing Josh Beckett.

Their defense is truly amazing. They set a MLB record for team fielding percentage this year. Sure Fielding Pct, isn't the greatest defensive metric, but once you see these guys play defense, you will be a believer. Tulowitzki is incredible with the glove, with his trademark play being a running throw after making a nice pickup in the hole. Helton also plays a great firstbase.

Their offense is solid, with Torrealba being the weakest link. They have two speedsters at the top of the lineup, both of whom do a decent job of getting on base. Taveras missed most of the team's winning streak, and when he came back he bumped Matsui to the 2 hole and Tulowitzki dropped to the 7 hole. Tulowitzki hasn't hit well in the 7 hole, but was a masher in the 2 hole. The Red Sox have the Ortiz/Ramirez combo that is their strength. The Red Sox have a black hole in Julio Lugo, who I can't believe has a starting SS job in the AL. The Red Sox would also be wise to start Ellsbury ahead of Crisp, perhaps only sitting him against the LHP Francis.

Under normal circumstances, Cook would be a significant upgrade over Morales, but Cook hasn't pitched in nearly two months, but he still should be better than what the Red Sox will trot out to the mound in Game #4 in Lester, who's tendancy to give up alot of home runs could haunt him in Coors Field.

We all know how good the Delcarmen/Okajima/Papelbon trio is, but the Rockies bullpen is nothing to sneeze at. Corpas and Fuentes are tough, and the rest of the bullpen is very solid. The Rockies bullpen probably has more depth, but not as good at the end. Morales will be another lefty (besides Affeldt) who will be called upon to get the likes of Ortiz and Drew out.

The Red Sox will also have to sit one of their top hitters when they play in the NL park and their CF of choice will have to get use to covering a huge expanse of ground.

I think this will be a very even and exciting series. Both teams will have to be at their best to win.

Good luck!

I will be posting win probability odds from My Simulator before each game. And for the record my simulator has each game being very close, unlike Vegas odds, which heavily favor the Red Sox.

vr, Xeifrank

by Xeifrank on Oct 24, 2007 2:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: NL West fan

Im prepared to take the rockies seriously. However, they've got one big thing working against them that i havnt heard anyone really talk about. Probability. Having won 21 of 22 is great, but that which goes up must come down, it doesnt matter how good or bad a team you are, you will lose games and you will having losing streaks. Its just a question of where and when. And if you havnt had a losing streak lately, well you might be due. Now combining that with the fact that the rockies are coming off extended rest, their recent success doesnt mean much to me. All that matters is how these games of baseball are played, and it promises to be a fun and interesting series to follow.

by spinz on Oct 24, 2007 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: NL West fan

The Math Major is going to have to say something here.

--START GEEK--

Assuming the odds a team A beating team B are 50/50--big assumption--then yes, the odds of winning say 25 of 26 in a row are very very low. However, each game is an independent event. Just like flipping a coin, while the likelihood of getting heads 20 times in a row is very low, it doesn't change the odds of the 21st coin flip. It's still 50/50.

A fine example of this fallacy is when they have the "last numbers" on the roulette wheel, so people don't bet on them (because it couldn't possibly land on the same number again, could it?) Well it can, and often does.

--END GEEK--

In the Rockie's case I'd put their odds at more like 30-70. Just because I think we'll slit their friggin' throats.

by sdkramer.otm on Oct 24, 2007 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: NL West fan

It would only ever be 50/50 in the event that the two teams were absolutely equal. The reason teams slump and go on rolls is that there is a mental aspect to it (aside from the fact that some players are better than others!).

If the Red Sox truly are 70/30 then we should win the WS 87.4% of the time. I don't think if we played this series 8 times that we'd win it 7.

Still, Red Sox in 6 is my prediction. Only a few more hours to go!

Jez

by CountyJez on Oct 24, 2007 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: NL West fan

Hey, good math. Unlike spinz and his gamblers fallacy. You really think the Red Sox are 70% favorites to win each game? Or is that the Sam Adams talking. :)

Here are the (preliminary) individual game odds that My Simulator came up with. This is the same simulator that predicted a World Series win by the Red Sox (over the Cubs) prior to season, based on ZIPS projections.

G1: Red Sox 52.10%
G2: Rockies 51.85%
G3: Rockies 51.40%
G4: Rockies 54.45%
G5: Red Sox 50.35%
G6: Rockies 51.85%
G7: Red Sox 54.60%

This is assuming the current projected starting rotation orders. Using these individual game odds, the Rockies would be a 51.002% favorite to win the World Series.

vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 24, 2007 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: NL West fan

You're saying Rockies in 6?

I think this time around that if the Sox are down 2-1, we'll see Beckett in Game 4. You mentioned above that you expected Lester in Game 4, what'd seeing Beckett three times do to your projection.

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Oct 24, 2007 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: NL West fan

With a 51.002% series win probability, I would translate that to a Rockies in 7. If you pitched Beckett in Games 1,4,7 and didn't use Lester and you ass-u-me that Beckett will still have his normal effectiveness pitching on short rest (by one day), and that Lester will then pitch Game #5 instead of #4.

Doing so the Red Sox went from 48.998% chance to 51.677% chance of winning the W.S. In other words they gained about 2.7% World Series win probability. But remember that's assuming that Beckett can still pitch effectively on short rest.

vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 24, 2007 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: NL West fan

What about the Sox experience in the post-season? Schilling may not have the stuff of Francis or Umbaldo, but I'd rather have Schilling.

You can argue that the teams are close talent-wise, but I think Sox will come out ahead.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Oct 25, 2007 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: NL West fan

Do I think it's 70/30? No. But I feel it, and Steven Colbert tells me that's almost as good.

by sdkramer.otm on Oct 24, 2007 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: NL West fan

Absolutely each game is an independent event, my point really was that winning 21 of 22 is nothing to feel confident about going into this thing. If anything, it works against them, because its psychological baggage for them to know they havnt lost a single game in the playoffs. its common sense that sooner or later you lose, nobody wins forever. Could they still sweep the sox in 4 and have won every single playoff game? of course, but i dare you to bet money on it:P

And honestly, i agree. I think the rox will get destroyed, and itl have alot more to do with pitching matchups than anything else. but im trying to be cautious and objective :P

by spinz on Oct 24, 2007 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: World Series. Boston and Colorado. Tonight. Y'

Check out www.spock.com, has a bunch of free links and info on the upcoming series

by sfsoxfan1 on Oct 24, 2007 4:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re:

Should be a good series. 2 of the best teams in baseball. Just need to be patient let the young arms on the Rockies fall behind. I still can't believe the Redsox are in the world series if you told me this in March i'd laugh with all the unknowns. Lets finish the job now.

by BelieveinBoston19 on Oct 24, 2007 5:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs