Venting the frustration

by SweSox on Aug 11, 2006 8:12 AM EDT in News Comment 15 comments

On July 31st, I published a diary entry named "Now is the time to try and pull away". Here's the first paragraph of that diary:

"Regardless of what the trade deadline brings us - whether Soriano, Schmidt, or someone else hops on the BoSox train - we need to win a vast majority of the upcoming 10 games. We play Cleveland (45-58) for four games, Tampa Bay (43-62) and Kansas City (37-67). After that, we go up against the Tigers, Yankees and Angels. Over their next nine, the Yanks play the Jays, O's and Chi-Sox. We need to get some distance between us now, or this season may very quickly begin to look very ugly."

After the Devil Rays took the series with us 2-1, the season began to look very ugly. After being swept by the Kansas City Royals, a team that is nowadays only mentioned as a joke or as a possible trading partner and never as any kind of threat, the season looks abysmal. We are three games back in the division, two games back in the wild card race. That's certainly not impossible to make up in over a month and a half. But does anyone who saw last night's game feel that this team is likely to do it?

I'm not really sure about what is causing this sudden case of severe all-around craptasticness. Could it be the absense of Tek behind the plate? I don't know. We're 2-7 since tek went down, which seems to indicate it. His bat had not been anywhere near hot this year though, so that can't account for too much. Tek has an OPS of .743 on the year, Belli has .633 and Javy a lousy .556. Yes, there's a difference there. Not a 2-7 difference, though. Where we miss Tek most thus seems to be behind the plate. We have given up 51 runs in the past nine games. That's a team ERA of 5.66 in that span, more than a full run higher than our team ERA of 4.61. That's really very bad. So either our pitchers have just plain sucked on their own over the past nine games, or Javy/Belli catching them has had an impact. You decide.

Tek going down has not been the only reason for this misery, though. As i said in a comment to Randy's article yesterday, the bats have been quiet lately too. It's usually fun watching this offense play, because you know that sooner or later something's gonna happen. Not now. When the Royals were playing smallball trying to get a run and the lead in the fifth inning yesterday, I was scared to death. It didn't feel like any kind of certainty that we would score another run from there on out. It usually does, especially against a guy with an 8+ ERA...

Here's an outline of the current silence of the bats, pre-allstar compared to post-allstar. Lowell's OPS is down from .875 to .603. A HUGE dropoff. Youk's OPS is down from .874 to .748. Alex Cora is down from .752 to .572 when we've needed him most since Lowell's been semi-hurt. Coco has not improved on his just plain bad .711 OPS before the allstar game. Post-allstar he has an even worse .696. Loretta's dropoff is rather insignificant, from .738 to .718.

The performance dropoffs are so many, and in some cases so significant, that the fact that Manny (1.126), Papi (1.116) and Peña (.925) have been tremendously good doesn't much matter. They can't do it all and until the bats of Lowell, Youk and Coco wake up from their coma's, we're screwed unless our pitching staff goes bananas and starts throwing complete game shutouts, which doesn't seem all that likely to happen.

When I went to bed after watching the game yesterday, I was sad about the entire situation. Now that I've had some time to ponder it, I'm more pissed off than anything else. This needs to change, and it needs to change soon. Right now, I'm not all that comforted by the talk about how friggin super awesome this team is going to be in 2008. We have a team that's good enough to be in the playoffs this year. Maybe not good enough to win it all without a sizeable amount of luck, but good enough to go to the show. We've been hit hard by injuries, but there's also been several cases of players underperforming. Coco, Beckett, Post-allstar Lowell - I'm talking to you. Wake up and wake up now, we're approaching September and we desperately need you.

Since this season kinda feels like the 2004 season before the brawl game, here's to hoping A-Rod gets plunked in the upcoming series with the Yankees and that pandemonium erupts.

That, or we might be dead in the water.

0 recs | Comment 15 comments

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Re: Venting the frustration

After the allstar break
Pitching - boston
27 games 4.85era, whip 1.48, saves 5, holds 9,
0 quality starts!

Offense .277ave, .348obp, .460slg, .808ops
Opponent .296ave,.349obp, .451slg, .800 ops

Our core guys
BA OBP SLG OPS
Youk .290 .365 .383 .748
Loretta .287 .347 .370 .718
Papi .320 .426 .689 1.116
Manny .376 .433 .693 1.126
Lowell .202 .258 .345 .603
WMP .265 .333 .592 .925
Agon .272 .337 .494 .831
Coco .286 .324 .371 .696
**TEK .300 .407 .540 .947 DL

Bench
Doug .222 .250 .519 .759
Lopez .222 .222 .333 .556 small sample
Kapler .136 .387 .227 .614
Nixon .196 .283 .261 .544 DL
Cora .237 .256 .316 .572
Miller 0 0 0 0 can't hit

Now using
http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py
2004 to simulate runs per game
youk,Lor,papi,manny,lowell,wmp,coco,catcher, agon

Runs per game
With Tek #8 5.95/6.209 (2nd # assume best lineup)
With Doug#8 5.696/5.962
with Doug and Cora over Lowell 5.76/5.893
With Lopez#8 5.437/5.774
With Doug#8 and Corra over Agon 5.426/5.585
With Tek and Nixon (no WMP) 5.533/5.774

I didn't bother to look with Kapla or anyone else

If you substitute Cora for Lowell with Doug as catcher you get a 5.893 max runs per game

The defense has been down lately. Not shown in the ERA #

Verty little room for Error when you pitching is not that good, defense has been weak allowing to many un earned runs and your offence is no better than the competion, Tito does not always play the best players, and since the all star break.

Dave

by nhdjinn on Aug 11, 2006 11:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Venting the frustration

At this point you just have to believe that the team can turn it around and make the playoffs. All teams have slumps during the year, and the Sox need to pull out of this one and starting playing good ball again. I would say I'm concerned, but not panicked.

It would be really disappointing not to win the division with the Yankees pitching weak and lineup injured (though deadline moves fixed that), but the important thing is to make the playoffs and the season begins fresh.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Aug 11, 2006 1:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

why were bad!

some more data points
Yankees after the Allstar break
Team offense
Yankees .278ave, .345obp, .479slg, .824ops
Opponent .263ave,.322obp, .415slg, .737 ops

Redsox .277ave, .348obp, .460slg, .808ops
Yankees OPS is a little higher but basically the same output.

Pitching - Yankees
25 games 4.31era, whip 1.30, saves 10, holds 12,
0 quality starts!

The main thing I see here is the Yankee bullpen has been very good It's winning them the games.
Our offense has been similar to the Yankees after the allstar break. All their offense is more spread out so they are harder to pitch around but the offenses are similar.

The Yankees
Villone 2.87 15.2ip,
Proctor 1.08 16.2ip,
and Rivera 2.40 15ip.
Farnsworth 4.50 10ip
(57.1IP) 2.51 ERA - 16 runs in 25 games

The redsoxs Bullpen
Hansen 5.79 14ip
Delcarmen 5.68 12.2ip
Timlin 4.63 11.2
Travarez 6.94 11.2 needs to be DFA'd NOW
Papelbon 2.38 11.1
(61.1ip) 5.136 ERA - 35 runs in 27 games!!!!

61.1 (2 more games played)
That's 0.66 more runs per game above the Yankees Bullpen!
Our bullpen has been bad!
Too bad we can't find 3 relivers that can keep their ERA's below 3!!!

So don't say it's the starters need to go deeper.
The Yankees are using their bullpen just as much
They just have a better bullpen!!!

Our Relievers besides Papelbon, need to pitch much better!

When Hansen, Delcarmen Timlin or anyone else starts to pitch above replacement level, the Soxs will turn it around!

It is also possible that the Yankees bullpen will move back to the mean. I don't how many inning Proctor can pitch!

Dave

by nhdjinn on Aug 11, 2006 3:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: why were bad!

Timlin has a VORP of 12.7 (144th of all pitchers), and Delcarmen has a VORP of 5.5 (270th). Hansen is the only pitcher currently in our pen who has a negative VORP (his is -0.3). Seanez, Foulke and even Hatchet Face all have positive VORP's. So they are technically pitching above replacement level.

That none of them have been any good as of late is one thing, but they still have value over replacement players.

Also "So don't say it's the starters need to go deeper."? Isn't that exactly what we need until our bullpen stops sucking?

What do I think about Hatchet Face Tavarez? Put a Milo on him!

by SweSox on Aug 11, 2006 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Venting the frustration

Yes that would help as long as our starters pitched well. I am also only using the data after the allstar break. It's hard to believe that any of our relivers, except Paps and maybe Timlin, that are pitching meaningful innings have positive VORP's after the break.
By having our starters go deeper you avoid using the bullpen and limiting the innings of our above 5 era type guys. But that does not make the bullpen better it just limits their potential damage and masking the issue.

In the current Sox system, you need 3 decent relievers to cover the 7,8, and 9th.
Sometimes 6th as well with the 4th and 5th starters.

We have 1 reliever with a sub 4 era after the break. Paps at 2.38 with only 11ip in 27 games
That because the 7 and 8 guy are not doing their job. Now if all our starter pitched 7 innings then you need 1 guy to turn it around assuming the starters are pitching well enough. Maybe that makes the bullpen look better from subtraction of a bad reliever. Expecting more than 3 decent relievers is asking a lot in todays game.

The Yankees are getting a huge boost from their 3 main bullpen guys. If one of them declines, then they will cool off. If 2 decline they will be in trouble as well.

Still we are using 5 guys at the moment to do the job. That is becaue only 1 is getting the job done. When an additional reliever steps up we will reverse this trend.

by nhdjinn on Aug 11, 2006 4:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Venting the frustration

"We have 1 reliever with a sub 4 era after the break. Paps at 2.38 with only 11ip in 27 games"

No. We also have Seanez with an amazing 0.84 ERA in 10.2 IP and LOOGY-Lopez with a 0.00 ERA in 2.0 IP. Post-allstar. Breslow also has a 0.00 in 1.2 IP but he's down in Pawtucket for what appears to be to stay.

"Now if all our starter pitched 7 innings then you need 1 guy to turn it around assuming the starters are pitching well enough."

We're going to go with the Proctor-style with one of our relievers, using them in virtually every game? That seems dumb. We need at least two of our relievers whose names dont start with the letters PAPELB to turn things around if we want to have a reliable pen.

What do I think about Hatchet Face Tavarez? Put a Milo on him!

by SweSox on Aug 11, 2006 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

we are all allowed to be sad today

But, the only good thing I can think of is that the Yanks HAVE been relying very heavily on their bullpen. And the way Torre's been using them, quite frankly I'm just waiting for Scott Proctor's arm to explode in a shower of bone bits and gore on the mound.

And once that happens, maybe we can make up some ground. 'Cause, uh, sure feels like the wild card's coming outta the Central this season.

by Boston Fan in Michigan on Aug 11, 2006 4:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Venting the frustration

BTW I am using the Yankee to show how they are winning. This is not a sox - yankee thing.
It just points out that the main reason the yankees are playing well after the all star break is that their 3 main bullpen guys are pitching lights out. The sox bullpen is main reason for the post allstar break record.

Dave

by nhdjinn on Aug 11, 2006 4:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Venting the frustration

"It just points out that the main reason the yankees are playing well after the all star break is that their 3 main bullpen guys are pitching lights out."

Yankees team OPS pre-allstar: .805
Yankees team OPS post-allstar: .824

Chien-Ming Wang pre-allstar ERA: 4.00
Chien-Ming Wang post-allstar ERA: 2.57

Randy Johnson pre-allstar ERA: 5.13
Randy Johnson post-allstar ERA: 4.71

Also, Cory Lidle in the one game he's started pitched well enough to now have a 1.50 ERA with the Yankees. Shawn Chacon, before being traded, had a 6.71 ERA pre-allstar and an amazing 8.68 ERA post-allstar. Switching in Lidle instead of Chacon in the rotation might be somewhat of an upgrade. No, I don't think Lidle is going to maintain a 1.50 ERA, but i don't think it's going to get to 7+ either.

What I don't get, I guess, is how you conclude that the Yankees pen has been any bigger reason than their offense staying hot (in fact getting hotter) and several parts of their starting pitching improving for their post-allstar record.

What do I think about Hatchet Face Tavarez? Put a Milo on him!

by SweSox on Aug 11, 2006 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Venting the frustration

This ties in with the previous comment...

"The sox bullpen is main reason for the post allstar break record."

How do you reach that conclusion?

What do I think about Hatchet Face Tavarez? Put a Milo on him!

by SweSox on Aug 11, 2006 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Venting the frustration

after that showing last night do you think this team even stands a chance in the playoffs? We're gonna get killed, man, by the Tigers in the first round.

I'd rather sit this one out and see the Yankees or White Sox get plastered by Detroit.

by lawman3842 on Aug 11, 2006 4:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Venting the frustration

Never say never. The Sox were counted out when they were down 3-0 to the Yankees, but they won and kept on winning. They can do it again.

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Aug 11, 2006 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Venting the frustration

I agree with Randy. The Yanks were swept by KC last year--and made the playoffs.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Aug 11, 2006 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Venting the frustration

I loaded up the trial version of Out of the Park 2006. At the all-star break, Lowell had an OPS in the 450 range and Youkilis in the 500 range, with the Sox 2 games below 500 and 12 games behid the first place... Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

It was an interesting example of how the season could have gone. None of the starters had won more than 6 games, all with ERAs north of 4. Papelbon was the only reliever with an ERA south of 3. Papi and Manny having trouble keeping an OPS north of 900, and everybody else worse (except for Crisp, who was randomly challenging for MVP hitting 340/380/640.

So it could be worse. ;)

by NinetyNineTails on Aug 11, 2006 6:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Venting the frustration

sorry SweSox I was away. I'm not aguguing you points just putting up some interesting facts.

Since the AS break till then end of The KC series
27 game

The main reasons besides the Starters who as a group have been league average all year.

Lately it's been our imploding bullpen.
So looking at the sox vs Yankeess
The sox bullpen has allowed 16 more runs than the yankees for about the same # of bullpen innings. 35 total runs from our main relievers.

1.3 runs per game or .6 runs/game mover over the yankees BP

2. The sox have allowed 20 unerned runs over the past 27 games. The yankees have allowed just 5
thats a 15 run differential

So 16 more Bullpen runs + 15 more Unearned = 31
1.15 more runs per game above the yankees.

So if we say that the offenses are about the same post AS break within .25 runs/game (Yankees Vs Soxs), and the redsox opp during that time generated about the same runs per game.

The yankees main reasons are better bullpen performance. Starters ERA ios about the same, and better (Cringe) yankee defense.

How many games are the redsoxs going to Win if they allow their opponesnt to hit virtually the same OBP and SLG over the last 27 game and allow 20 unerened runs?