Jeremy Reed to Boston?

by Randy Booth on Jan 16, 2006 1:23 PM EST in News

The rumors are flying all around the internet: is Jeremy Reed about to land in Boston to become the new starting centerfielder?

Over The Monster reader SoxDevil reported that Reed was coming to Boston with a prospect, in exchange for Guillermo Mota, Bronson Arroyo and prospect Randy Beam. That was reported false. But, with all false reports, there is some truth. So we may see this trade or something similar pop up soon.

Also a rumor I've seen today sends Reed and Gil Meche to Boston for either Jon Lester or Jonathan Papelbon. I am completely against this trade. I don't want Meche, and I don't want to trade Lester or Papelbon under any circumstances.

Thoughts? Now that we've seen some offers, what do you think would get the deal done to bring Reed to Boston?

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2nd rumor

Reed & Meche for Papelbon or Lester is a BAD trade.

As posted by one of the contributors to Lookout Landing, the Mariner's blog:

"Meche is really a lot like a 1978 Ford Mustang. It's got the labels of a Mustang, the legacy of the Mustang, but, really, it's all Ford Pinto underneath.

We're trying to sell Meche here -- let's let people think they're getting a Shelby Cobra, not a Ford Pinto!"

I think that about sums it up. Moreover, we really have no use for Meche.

The other report (Arroyo, Mota, Beam for Reed, PTBNL) is more palatable, but it is a lot to give up for Reed. Beam may turn out to be a good pitcher, and Arroyo is solid. Mota is a big ?.

I'm not sure I have any reasonable answer for a good CF. It seems that in any scenario, the Sox have to give up a lot. Perhaps we could get Wilkerson from the Rangers? He wouldn't necessarily be a bad option, and Texas has a glut of outfielders. Wily Mo Pena? Kotsay? Anyone have some other ideas?

As an aside, I think Reed & Papelbon are about equally far along their respective development. However, Papelbon is far more valuable as a starting pitcher in a diluted league. Keep workin' on the splitter Paps!

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jan 16, 2006 2:02 PM EST reply actions

Don't overtrade

As much as I would like to have Reed, I don't want to see them give up too much for him. The first trade sounds reasonable. The second trade is way off balance.

I would rather see them settle for one of the lesser options, such as Michaels than give up one of the crown jewels of the system.

by cdamon @ Over the Monster on Jan 16, 2006 3:00 PM EST reply actions

Michaels

Do you think the Phillies would trade him? I don't think they have many options in the OF these days.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jan 16, 2006 4:04 PM EST up reply actions

rumored to be on the block

They got rowand from the ChiSox (to go along with Abreu and Burrell) so Michaels is no better than a 4th OF for them. They also have Victorino who is at least a reasonable 4th OF and they picked up Kroeger off waivers from the D-Backs last week.

by cdamon @ Over the Monster on Jan 16, 2006 4:14 PM EST up reply actions

worth a phone call

You never know. Perhaps Michaels turns out to be a better MLB ballplayer than Reed. I'd call the Phillies and see what they want for him.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jan 16, 2006 4:18 PM EST up reply actions

jeremy reed

i like the idea of the sox going after jeremy reed. But at the right cost. as for the arroyo mota and beam trade, i would probally make that trade but i would never give up papelbon or lester for reed. Lester and papelbon have so much more potential than reed, and young arms are always more valuable than an average young outfeilder.

by soxmaster on Jan 16, 2006 4:12 PM EST reply actions

Just Say No To Meche

Reed is the right idea, but I live in Seattle, so I'm in a position to tell you that Meche is a disaster and, as an extreme flyball pitcher, won't do the Red Sox one little bit of good this year or any year, except when they play against the team that has him in the rotation. He's actively not useful and the Sox should stay far away.

by NinetyNineTails on Jan 16, 2006 5:32 PM EST reply actions

Please explain...

Could someone please explain to me why a Sox fan should be excited about a trade for Jeremy Reed?

I'm not being a wise guy, I just really don't get it after looking at his stats:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7284

Is it that there are very few others to choose from? I can't get excited about Reed unless there is no one out there with a batting average over .250-.265.

by Hudson on Jan 16, 2006 10:41 PM EST reply actions

Reed is a top flight prospect

who struggled through an injury last year. And Safeco depresses offensive statistics. Who is a top notch defender.

Coming into last year, Reed was probably the odds-on favorite to win the ROY. He had hit consistently in the minors. He put up a 397/470/466 line in limited time in 2004.

Baseball Prospectus, one of the most respected stat-head groups, had Reed as the #10 prospect in all of baseball coming into last year. At the opposite end of the spectrum, Baseball America had Reed as the #33 prospect in all of baseball. When both stat-heads and scouts agree that a prospect is top-flight, he usually pans out.

Last year, he did hit 254/338/364. Even adjusted for park, that would be a weak year for a CF. But compare that to Crisp's first full year (at 7 months younger than Reed) 266/302/353. Adjusted for park, Crisp's year is notably worse than Reed's. The 2 years since then Crisp has put up 297/344/446 and 300/345/465 lines. I would expect something similar from Reed if he came here, but with better defense than Crisp would put up. And 1 1/2 years younger, with 2 years farther to Arb and FA.

by cdamon @ Over the Monster on Jan 17, 2006 8:00 AM EST up reply actions