The community projections continue!

We started with Jason Varitek (which you can still add your projections to), but we move around the horn to Kevin "Youkon Cornelous" Youkilis.

Let's see how you predict the No. 3 man in the AL MVP voting in 2008 to do in the 2009 season:

AB:
HR:
BA:
OBP:
SLG:

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, Over The Monster community projections are back!

If you're new to OTM, this game is quite simple. I post a player's name and certain categories. You, as the reader, then predict -- using those categories -- what the player will do in the 2009 season. At the end of the season I will average everyone's guesses, see who had the closest guesses and declare a winner (of sorts). If you don't understand, well ... then just watch, I guess.

I'd like to try and do the entire starting lineup, but we'll see how that goes. Let's just start going around the horn anyway by starting with your captain, Jason Varitek.

Just copy and paste this form in the comments and insert your answers for what you think Varitek will do:

AB:
HR:
BA:
OBP:
SLG:

It's always a pain choosing categories that everyone agrees on, so if these suck, let me know and I might change them. Might.

Have fun!

I love this photo. (via cache.boston.com)

Believe it or not, the community projections this year for Jason Varitek were almost spot on -- except those pesky averages. Here's the stat breakdowns:

		G	BA	OBP	SLG	2B	HR	BB
ACTUAL		131	.220	.313	.359	20	13	52
PROJECTED	120	.264	.353	.423	20	15	59
CLOSEST	127	.248	.334	.403	20	17	61

As you can see, Red Sox Nation didn't expect Varitek to bat as badly as he really did. Every other category that wasn't dependent on batting average or on base percentage, though, was pretty close. Undoubtably though if that batting average was higher, he'd have more doubles and home runs to throw the projections off.

We should do another community projection in the spring for Varitek (after he signs, right?) to see what people think then.

Spring projections for Varitek

via i.a.cnn.net

Dude's a stud. That's all I can say.

The American League's MVP had a season for the ages. Little Scrappy Doo did something that no one could have predicted -- even readers at Over The Monster couldn't do it. Here's how Pedroia's stats compared to what OTM readers projected out of the All-Star second baseman:

		AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB
ACTUAL		653	.326	.376	.493	17	20
PROJECTED	530	.304	.378	.447	11	6
CLOSEST	542	.323	.389	.487	13	8

As you can see, no one really thought he'd hit for such a good average. We basically nailed the OBP, but also under estimated his power and his ability to steal bases. It's not so much that Pedroia is fast -- because he isn't -- he just picked great times to swipe a base. After this season I don't think anyone will ever doubt what Pedroia can do in terms of home runs, either. He can mash pretty well for a little guy.

The closest guess was by OTM reader 2004LoveAffaird. Everone was off with ABs, but he was close with AVG/OBP/SLG and not too far away with the home run numbers.

Up tomorrow is Jason Varitek. That should be a doozy!

Link to the original CP for Dustin Pedroia

via www.rotorob.com

For the man that finished fourth in the 2008 American League Cy Young voting, OTM readers weren't even close to predicting his season.

Basically everyone knew he was going to do better than 2007, but no one knew how good in certain categories. Everyone overshot when it came to strikeouts, under-guessed when it came to walks, over-guessed his ERA, under-guessed his WHIP and so on and so forth. Essentially, no one was close at all. Here's how it broke down:

		Daisuke Matsuzaka
		GS	IP	W	L	SO	BB	ERA	WHIP
ACTUAL		29	168	18	3	154	94	2.90	1.32
PROJECTED	32	206	18	8	212	65	3.58	1.20

Only two categories (games started and wins) were close. Everything else was off pretty considerably. It's interesting to compare Daisuke's 2007 and 2008 seasons. Daisuke was definitely better in '08, but he did give a lot more walks while allowing less hits. The result to his WHIP? Nothing. His 2008 WHIP (1.32) was identical to 2007. It's amazing how that worked out.

There was well over 20 responses to the prediction for Daisuke. It was a great response, so we'll definitely do this one again in the spring. Hopefully we'll come a little bit closer next time.

via bayareabaseball.today.com

'Tis the season for community projection results. It's when I stick my nose into Excel for a few hours and figure out where people went right and wrong. A community projection, if you don't know, is where members of the OTM community predict how a certain player will do in the upcoming season. To see an example, here is J.D. Drew's.

And speaking of Drew, we start with Drew. Overall, predictions were a tad high for how Drew actually produced. It certainly didn't help though that Drew missed a good chunk of time due to injury. Had Drew been able to play in 30 or so more games then these predictions probably would have been a lot closer and, in some cases, lower.

Here's how the numbers broke down:

		Games	Runs	Hits	Doubles	HR	RBI	BA	OBP
ACTUAL		109	79	103	23	19	64	0.280	0.408
PROJECTED	139	89	145	33	19	88	0.285	0.389
CLOSEST	130	87	110	24	17	77	0.282	0.400

The closet projection was by OTM user future. As you can see by the average projection, if Drew were healthy the entire season he'd actually surpass expectations.

Thoughts? The remaining projections will be posted soon.

Today's projection? Well, it's up there, Jason Varitek. Tek is in that part of a catcher's career where he should be steadily declining; however, he rebounded from a mediocre year in 2006 to put up above-average production for the position in 2007. Will there be some uptick due to this being a contract year? A slight decline from last season? ....fall off the table? These are the questions.

via Getty Images/Koichi Kamoshida

Games:
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SLG:
2B:
HR:
BB:

Dustin Pedroia had one helluva season in 2007 but can he do it again? There's a lot of pressure riding on his shoulders because everyone wants him to repeat. It'd be hard for him to do it, but what does Red Sox Nation think?

Community projection time for Scrappy Doo. You all know the drill. Copy and paste the form into the comments with your guesses.

AB:
AVG:
OBP:
SLG:
HR:
SB: