Today's projection? Well, it's up there, Jason Varitek. Tek is in that part of a catcher's career where he should be steadily declining; however, he rebounded from a mediocre year in 2006 to put up above-average production for the position in 2007. Will there be some uptick due to this being a contract year? A slight decline from last season? ....fall off the table? These are the questions.

via Getty Images/Koichi Kamoshida

Games:
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2B:
HR:
BB:

Dustin Pedroia had one helluva season in 2007 but can he do it again? There's a lot of pressure riding on his shoulders because everyone wants him to repeat. It'd be hard for him to do it, but what does Red Sox Nation think?

Community projection time for Scrappy Doo. You all know the drill. Copy and paste the form into the comments with your guesses.

AB:
AVG:
OBP:
SLG:
HR:
SB:

Due to reader request, here is our second community projections of the off-season: Daisuke Matsuzaka. Our first one on JD Drew exploded with a lot of guesses, so let's hope we see the same for Dice-K. As always, please copy and paste the form below in the comments:

GS:
IP:
Wins:
Losses:
SO:
BB:
ERA:
WHIP:

Ladies and gentlemen, our best predictions yet. And of course, it just happens to be our lovable, frat-boy of a closer, Jonathan Papelbon:

Actual Results: G: 59 IP: 58.1 ERA: 1.85 WHIP: .771 BAA: .146 Saves: 37 Save Opportunities: 40 SO: 84 Community Projection: G: 61 IP: 68 ERA: 1.54 WHIP: 0.96 BAA: .209 Saves: 39 Save Opportunities: 43 SO: 78

The CP actually under shoots his stats in a lot of cases. His WHIP and BAA was much better than OTM readers thought it would. The ERA was a little bit higher, but everything else was pretty much along the sames lines. This just makes me smile and enjoy the fact we have the best closer in baseball. A good feeling, huh?



OTM reader The Impossible Dream earns the closest guess honors:

G: 60
IP: 68
ERA: 1.65
WHIP: 0.95
BAA: .203
SV: 42
Opps: 47
SO: 78

Last year we decided to project the season of our (former?) center fielder Coco Crisp. Our predictions, like all the other ones were close in some areas and way off on others. Our CP actually under estimated Coco's steals and runs, but everything else fell short of what we expected:

Actual Results: BA : .268 OBP: .330 SLG: .382 HR : 6 RBI: 60 R  : 85 SB : 28 Community Projection: BA : .292 OBP: .343 SLG: .442 HR : 14 RBI: 71 R  : 79 SB : 23

0157H7 takes the cake for closest guess:

Avg .280
OBP .325
SLG .430
HR 14
RBI 70
R 70
SB 25 (CS 5)

The last set of community projection results comes out tomorrow. The last, but certainly not least, result is our All-Star closer, Jonathan Papelbon.

Why were we so optimistic about Julio Lugo a year ago? Well, there was reason to be optimistic but it just didn't pan out correctly. Let's just say we really overshot in our average:

Actual Results: AVG: .237 OBP: .294 HR : 8 RBI: 73 R : 71 SB : 33 FP%: .968 Community Projection: AVG: .293 OBP: .360 HR : 12 RBI: 65 R : 98 SB : 24 FP%: .965

Average. Bad. OBP. Bad. Home runs. Close. Lugo did surprise in the RBI, stolen base and fielding percentage categories. Maybe our predicted line will be more suited for 2008. Nobody was really close for predicting Lugo's stats this past season.

JD Drew is the latest player to have his community projections updated right here. The best way to describe the differences between Drew's predicted results and real results is: "Great Expectations."

Actual Results: AVG: .270 OBP: .373 HR : 11 RBI: 64 R : 84 SB : 4 Days on the DL: 0 Community Projection: AVG: .290 OBP: .392 HR : 25 RBI: 105 R : 87 SB : 7 Days on the DL: 13

The only two categories that were really close were runs and stolen bases. Everything else overshot its intended target. Imagine if Drew really did hit .290 with 25 home runs. We'd be talking about a Sox team with 100 plus wins right now.

RhodySoxFever came the closest in predicting Drew's season:

AVG: .271
OBP: .375
HR : 17
RBI: 78
R : 69
SB : 11
Days on the DL: 15

Over a year ago when Daisuke Matsuzaka was on the verge of signing with the Red Sox, I started a community projections thread for our Japanese superstar. A community projection is when OTM readers will predict how a player will perform in a number of categories. The goal is to be as accurate as possible to the real results.

Now, since we've got some time to kill this off-season, the results are now in:

Actual Results:
Innings Pitched:        204.2
Wins:                   15
Losses:                 12
Games Started:       32
Strikeouts:             201
Walks:         80
Earned Run Average:     4.40
WHIP:                   1.324

Community Projection:
Innings Pitched:        202
Wins:                   16
Losses:                 8
Games Started:  31
Strikeouts:             183
Walks:          68
Earned Run Average:     3.64
WHIP:                   1.20

As you can see, some stat categories were really close. Innings pitched, wins, games started, walks and WHIP were all fairly accurate. The only stat that was really off was ERA, and even that would have been close if Dice-K didn't struggle so much in September.

When I do another community projection for Dice-K later in the off-season, I'm curious to see how much these numbers will improve. They have to improve, right? If anyone has any suggestions for community projections this year, let me know and I'll consider them before the season starts.

With the news that Jonathan Papelbon is going back to the closer's role, I think it's a perfect time for a new community projection.

You know how it works. I'll put categories here, you copy and paste it in a reply and put the results you'll think that they'll have in the 2007 season.

G:
IP:
ERA:
WHIP:
BAA:
Saves:
Save Opportunities:
SO:

His first year as a Red Sox didn't go so well. Coco Crisp landed on the disabled list and was never himself after that. This year he's healthy and he's hitting further down in the lineup. Will that help or hurt Coco?

It's community projections time:

BA :
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HR :
RBI:
R  :
SB :