Over the Monster

Sox officially sign Junichi Tazawa

2008-12-04T21:20:07Z

With the second biggest splash of the offseason so far, the Red Sox have announced the signing of Junichi Tazawa:

The Red Sox have formally announced the signing of Japanese righthander Junichi Tazawa

The 22-year-old Tazawa reached an agreement with the Sox on a three-year contract earlier this week, and the Globe's Amalie Benjamin and Tony Massarotti have learned that the the total value of the contract is $3.3 million.

Tazawa will receive a $1.8 million bonus, with salaries of $450,000 in 2009, $500,000 in '10, and $550,000 in '11. The Sox retain his rights as a pre-arbitration eligible or arbitration eligible player until 2014.

With Tazawa being 22 and starting in Double-A, we have to consider him a prospect. How does this change the Red Sox rankings? I could see Tazawa sliding into the No. 3 spot potentially, behind two of my favorite prospects, Lars Anderson and Michael Bowden.

Red Sox sign Dustin Pedroia to Extension

2008-12-03T17:15:30Z

[EDITOR'S NOTE by RANDY, 1:56 p.m.] While the Red Sox haven't made a splash in free agency, this may turn out to be the biggest move of the entire offseason. Re-signing Pedroia is absolutely huge. Hopefully Jonathan Papelbon and crew will follow suit...

You saw it here first! According to ESPN, the Boston Red Sox sign Dustin Pedroia to a 6-year $40.5MM extension through 2014, with an option for 2015!

I couldn't be happier. I thought it would take way more to extend him. That's a $6.75MM AAV for the next 6 years. The article doesn't say how much the option is for.

Masterson: Sell High?

2008-11-30T18:54:49Z

Salesman extraordinaire Justin Masterson makes his pitch. via multimedia.heraldinteractive.com

The baseball player market is a tricky economy, but you can still apply some simple financial concepts to it, like the axiom "Buy Low, Sell High." In baseball, this means you trade players at the peak of their perceived value, and acquire them when they are underrated (see Ortiz, David).

When evaluating prospects and young players, you need to look at potential value as well as past performance. For example, Kason Gabbard produced well for the Red Sox in 2007, increasing his perceived value. However, few scouts or other baseball people saw him as anything more than a fringe major league player or a 5th starter. Gabbard was traded as part of the Eric Gagne deal (a strange case in which both teams were selling high on their players). Between injury and regression, Kason didn't impress this year (5.14 FIP, only 56 innings pitched), and the Sox didn't miss him. So let's talk about another player who has raised his value.

Playoff hero, bullpen stalwart - it's tough to imagine Justin Masterson's stock rising any higher. By contrast, it's quite easy to see it fall. As I've previously mentioned, going by FIP and BABIP, Masterson's 2008 debut was rather lucky. There is a fair chance that his performance (runs allowed) will fall into line with his peripherals (balls in play, walks). On the other hand, with improved control, he could become an even better pitcher.

In terms of ceiling, few scouting sources believe he'll be a top of the rotation starter, or a closer. Soxprospects.com writes Masterson could be "a #3 starter or dominant set-up man." John Sickels sees Masterson as a #3 starter if his changeup improves; he also believes Justin has the skills and mentality to close.

Considering his ceiling and his peripherals, I think that Masterson is a good candidate to trade. Among starters, Bowden has about the same ceiling, Buchholz has a higher one, and we still have Beckett, Dice-K, Lester, and Wake. Among relievers, we have Daniel Bard and his overpowering fastball rapidly approaching the majors. More importantly, reliever performance is quite variable from year to year, with dominant set-up men one year being atrocious the next (see Betancourt, Rafael and Balfour, Grant). We already have some good set-up candidates in the pen (Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez, Wes Littleton) so Masterson isn't desperately needed there.

The danger is that we hold on to Masterson, he regresses, and becomes either a mediocre starter or a poor middle reliever. All the value that he accrued this year is lost. Undoubtedly the Red Sox are a good enough team to survive that possibility. But if Masterson can bring a great return now, like the catcher of the future, then I would definitely go for it.

What do you think? Is it time for the Red Sox to cash in? Should we sell high on Masterson, or should we hold on to him?

Poll

What Masterson move would you make?

Catching Prospects

2008-11-26T21:02:48Z

Jason Varitek and his agent Scott Boras discuss their negotiating strategy. Image source: Boston Dirt Dogs.

The Red Sox have a problem behind the plate. Jason Varitek, our starting catcher, had a .313 on-base percentage, and only threw out 22.22% of base runners. Our backup, Kevin Cash had a .309 OBP, although he at least played good defense.

As we all know, hitting by Red Sox catchers was very poor this year. Varitek had only two months in which he got on base more than a third of the time. You might argue that catchers across MLB were terrible at hitting and getting on base, and you would be right. Unfortunately, there are some exceptions to this, and we faced two of them in playoffs: the Rays' Dioner Navarro (.349 OBP) and the Angels' Mike Napoli (.374 OBP, 20 HR).

More to the point, the Red Sox are not like most teams. They have a high payroll and the highest ticket prices. It's not unreasonable to expect more than mediocrity from behind the plate.

Randy outlined the available free agent catchers a while back, and they are generally as bad as Tek or worse. So let's take a look at some of the prospects and young players who might be available in trade.

First off, we can surmise that some players won't be discussed. Russell Martin is not available. Matt Wieters, Baltimore's young catcher, should also be off the table - he'll be a centerpiece of their rebuilding process. Geovany Soto just won Rookie of the Year for a contending team, so he's going nowhere. Leaving these people out, there are still some promising hitting catchers out there.

Jeff Clement - Major-league ready for two years, Clement is nonetheless blocked in Seattle by the veteran Japanese catcher Kenji Johjima until 2011. The 25-year-old has scorched in AAA the past two years, hitting .275 / .370 / .497 with 20 HR in 2007 and .335 / .445 / .676 with 14 HR in 2008. He hasn't shown much success in the bigs, as of yet, with a .237 / .309 / .393 line in 219 AB. Clement underwent arthroscopic surgery recently, but he's expected to be 100% by spring training.

J.R. Tolkein Towles - 24 years old, lacks good power, but hits well in the minors. Like Clement, he hasn't found success in the majors just yet (.188 / .288 / .323 in 186 AB). John Sickels compared him favorably with Geovany Soto before the season started, liking Towles' athleticness and potential.

Bryan Anderson - Blocked at C by Yadier Molina, who is signed cheaply through 2011 ($7 million 2012 option). Blocked at 1B by some guy named Albert Pujols. Turns 22 this December. Hits well, gets on base, lacks power. After his promotion to AAA this year, he hit .281 / .367 / .369 in 235 AB.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia / Taylor Teagarden / Max Ramirez - Texas has three catchers who are ready to step in at the major league level. I'm not going to spend much time on them, since we've discussed them elsewhere. Teagarden is the best regarded of the bunch, as he is polished defensively and hit well in his MLB callup (1.205 OPS in 16 games). Ramirez had strikeout issues in AAA and the majors (29.2% K-rate) but had a 1.096 OPS in AA. Salty's defense has been questioned, and he hasn't performed superbly with bat.

Louis Marson - Marson exploded onto the prospect scene with a .849 OPS this year at AA, largely driven by his .433 OBP. He doesn't have great power (.391 career slugging in the minors), but his on-base skills are pretty good (.370 career OBP in the minors). He'll turn 23 next year, and he's in Philadelphia's system. Sickels gives him a C+, and doesn't think too highly of him.

Of these guys, I like Anderson, Salty, and Teagarden the best, but any of the above would be cheaper, and quite likely better, than a full season of Varitek at >$6 million.

What do you think? What is our future at catcher, for 2009 and beyond? Show your essential leadership skills and intangibles: comment below, and answer the poll.

Hot Stove Update, 11/25: Lowell

2008-11-25T16:26:03Z

According to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal, the Red Sox are confident they would be able to trade Mike Lowell:

Lowell could be a candidate for Frank McCourt's Los Angeles Red Sox if the Dodgers failed to re-sign free agent Casey Blake.

Other rival executives, however, are skeptical that the Red Sox could move Lowell quickly.

Lowell, who turns 35 on Feb. 24, is coming off hip surgery and guaranteed $24 million over the next two seasons.

The Red Sox are confident he will be fine, but one general manager countered, "I don't think anybody will take a chance on Mike Lowell until you see him play next spring."

The blueprint for a Lowell trade might be last winter's Scott-Rolen-for-Troy Glaus deal, in which the Cardinals and Jays exchanged high-priced, physically questionable third basemen.

Sox make 1-year offer to Varitek

2008-11-24T15:21:22Z

From Rob Bradford on WEEI:

According to sources familiar with the negotiations, the Red Sox’ initial contract offer to free agent catcher Jason Varitek this offseason was for one year. It was not determined what the monetary worth of the offer would be ...

Bradford doesn't mention how much the Sox offered, although he says it didn't come close to what Posada got ($13.1 million). That's not shocking, as Tek isn't worth that much. While I can't see Boras advising his client to take a 1-year contract, I'm glad Theo is taking a hard line. Catcher is the one true need for the Sox this off-season.

Update:

Nick Cafardo of the Globe contacted Boras, who denied that the Sox made a 1-year offer. I'm wary of anything Boras says during contract negotiations. Bradford is a fairly reliable sportswriter. So, I'm inclined to believe that the Sox did make a 1-year offer.

Hot Stove Update, 11/23: Teixeira, Varitek

2008-11-23T18:02:07Z

Randy Youngman from the OC Register predicts Mark Teixeira will land with the Red Sox before Christmas:

But I don't think it will be with the Angels. If he were going to re-sign in Anaheim, I think it already would have happened. Just a gut feeling. Even the people I talk to in the organization don't seem optimistic.

Teixeira would be ridiculed if he signed with perpetual losers such as the Baltimore Orioles or Washington Nationals, so my guess is he'll sign with the Boston Red Sox.

Kinda makes sense, if you ask me. If Big Teix wants to be on the East Coast and the Red Sox are willing to break the bank, then there we go -- we have a new first baseman ... and a new third baseman (sort of).

MLBTradeRumors.com says, according to Buster Olney: "The Red Sox are preparing, full-steam ahead, to play 2009 without Jason Varitek."

The Red Sox may be preparing but they still need to make a move. I don't think Kevin Cash can be the Red Sox' full-time catcher...

Brian Schneider a good fit for the Red Sox?

2008-11-22T21:31:13Z

According to Jon Heyman, the Mets are willing to trade some of their catching talent, including Brian Schneider who the Red Sox have previously had interest in:

There are indications the Mets might consider overhauling their catching situation. While the Mets haven't spoken publicly about any dissatisfaction with their tandem of Brian Schneider and Ramon Castro, some competing executives say the Mets, whose top priorities remain a closer and a starting pitcher, appear open to trading either catcher.

Should the Mets find a deal for their catchers, longtime Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek, a free agent, could be a possibility for them. Mets GM Omar Minaya has always liked Ivan Rodriguez, but it isn't known whether they'd consider I-Rod, as well.

Boston still has interest in keeping Varitek but isn't close to a deal with him yet. The Red Sox have looked into several other catching possibilities, including the Texas foursome of Jarrod Saltalamcchia, Gerald Laird, Taylor Teagarden and Max Ramirez.

I'm a fan of Schneider and I think the Red Sox are, too. He swings an OK stick, but his defense and game-calling is where he wins over teammates -- a lot like Varitek. Perhaps the Sox could trade for Schneider and grab a young catcher to work into the system. Schneider could be the full-time catcher and rotate with the youngster who, perhaps, could be one of the Rangers' trio.

Ideally (at least in my opinion), Varitek would come back with a cheap contract, the Sox would trade for a young catcher and then the grooming would begin. But it seems like Varitek would have to pass up a lot of money if that was the situation. If he wants too much, who could blame the Sox for not bringing him back? I love Varitek but the money is where things go downhill.

Top 10 Red Sox Moments of the Year -- suggestion box!

2008-11-22T18:04:35Z

Where will this moment rank in 2008's best moments? (via digitalderek.typepad.com)

Just like we did last year, we here at Over The Monster are compiling the top 10 best moments of the 2008 Boston Red Sox season. But, like always, we really need your help to help us conjure up the best moments (or better yet, the moments that were great but may slip our minds).

Before we go any further, let me rehash everyone's memory on last year's top 10:

Who could forget last year's No. 1? That was Clay Buchholz's no-hitter. I can still see Nick Markakis' knees bend on that curveball to end the game.
This memory was an early one of 2007, but we all agreed that this was huge: Mother's Day Miracle. I haven't said this much, but thank you, Julio Lugo.
The emergence of Hideki Okajima slotted in at No. 3. That was the moment in the season when we knew: "Yup, this guy is good."
Pure domination -- Josh Beckett style (in the playoffs, nonetheless).
In hindsight, maybe this moment should have been a little higher. But still, Jon Lester's first game back after defeating cancer. What an amazing story.
Did anyone say, "back-to-back-to-back-to-back"? This one still feels good.
Yup, the Red Sox won a World Series in 2007 but still game four only hits No. 7 on our countdown. (And, as Allen will tell you, I lobbied for this to be much higher. I remember telling Allen something along the lines of "This is when Lester became the pitcher we know he can be." Oh, and look. What happened this year, Allen? Huh. That's right. Winner, winner chicken dinner).
Just like the moment above, this one was sort of a "hey, look what I can do!" kind of moment. Can you guess what it is? JD Drew's grand slam in the ALCS vs. the Indians. That's when all of Red Sox Nation rejoiced and forgot about Drew's struggles at the plate in '07. Look at him now...
The almost no-no clocks in at No. 9. Damn those, A's...
We can't have a top 10 list from 2007 without the name "Manny" popping up. And here's his moment, in walk off fashion.

I highly suggest to click through those links and just look at the pictures. You don't even have to read anything -- just look at it and get that feeling back. It's a good feeling isn't it? That's what we are striving to achieve for our 2008 moments.

So throw 'em at us. The obvious and the not-so obvious. Jon Lester's no hitter? You bet it will be on there. The seven-run comeback in the ALCS against the Rays? That'll be high. Manny's departure? Yeah, I'm voting for that one to be high on the list.

Leave a comment and let us know. We don't want to miss a single great moment!

How Much is Mark Teixeira Worth?

2008-11-20T19:12:21Z

With speculation that the Red Sox may end up breaking the bank for Mark Teixeira, it's time we discussed how valuable he really is.

Dave Cameron goes into this subject on Fangraphs.com. Estimating that Tex is a worth an additional five wins above a replacement-level player, he comes up with the following values:

If Teixeira is a +5 win player, and we use the $5.5 million per win projection for off-season spending, that gives us a $27.5 million figure for 2009. Again, we’ll factor in a 10% discount off of his current value for the safety of a long term deal, and that gives us something like $24.5 million for Teixeira. Teams are more comfortable giving longer deals to hitters than pitchers, so let’s pencil him in for a 7 year, $171 million contract.

Pretty incredible, huh? How many of us would have valued Tex so highly?

I have some issues with these figures. First, Cameron bases the offensive value of Tex (+3 wins) on the last two years. Why is that significant? Well...

OPS+
2003: 102
2004: 131
2005: 144
2006: 126
2007: 150
2008: 151

Over the last two years Tex has put up the best overall offensive numbers of his career. Ages 27-28 is when most players start to peak, and Tex is now 28. It's not wholly unreasonable to project Tex based on his age 27 and 28 seasons, but we should keep in mind that he's had less spectacular seasons as recently as two years ago.

Another issue is that Cameron does not plan for any age-related decline in Tex's performance. Most players begin to decline offensively after age 32. A 7-year deal would pay Tex to age 35. It's a little optimistic, to say the least, to expect Tex to 1) hit as well as he has in his career years, and 2) to hit that well over seven years.

Since we're talking Manny money here (>$20 million per year), how does Tex compare with Manny at age 28? Manny also had career years at age 27 and 28 (OPS+ of 173 and 186, respectively), but he had been much more consistent, prior to that. His first season with more than 90 games (1994, age 22), he had a 125 OPS+. Thereafter he had four years of 144-147 OPS+.

For my money, Tex is a much more comparable hitter to Jason Bay. Their career OPS+s are very close - Tex is 134, Bay 131. Manny is a career 155 OPS+ hitter.

Turning to defense, no one would dispute that Tex plays a mean first base. However, so does Kevin Youkilis. According to the Fielding Bible's Plus/Minus, Youk edges Tex +25 to +22 over the past three years (2006-2008). Teixeira's defense is not worth as much to the Red Sox, who can keep Youk at first, as it is to the Yankees or Angels, both of whom have holes at the position.

I'd revise Teixeira's value downward, especially for the Red Sox. Since we receive no marginal gain in defense (and might even suffer by replacing Lowell with Youk), a fairer value for our team might be +3 wins, or $16.5 million a year. I'd throw some money on top for inflation, and offer a competitive rate of $18 million a year.

All this said, the best part about signing Tex would be hurting the Yankees and the Yankees West (LAA of A). New York faces the long-term prospect of a declining offense, as their stars age and their young players fail to hit (see "AAA" Melky and "No-Walk" Cano). Tex could help them, although he'd block Posada / A-Rod / Jeter from moving to first. The Angels, meanwhile, would have given up the promising Casey Kotchman for nothing more than a Red Sox draft pick. Moreover, they'd still be down a power hitter. In the end, Theo may decide that kneecapping our playoff competition might be worth overpaying for Teixeira.

So, to the big question: What do YOU think Teixeira is worth? Answer the poll, and leave your thoughts in the comments below.

Poll

What is fair value to sign Mark Teixeira?

$10-14 million per year and a monthly free T-Pass.

29 votes

$15-18 million per year.

131 votes

$19-21 million per year.

211 votes

$22-25 million per year.

137 votes

>$26 million per year. Scott Boras needs a new jet.

9 votes

$30,000 per year, with one week vacation, five sick days, and X-Mas and Thanksgiving off. If it's good enough for me, it's good enough for him.

51 votes

568 votes | Poll has closed

Tony Mazz: Sox will break the bank for Mark Teixeira

2008-11-19T19:34:33Z

A bold prediction for my new favorite Globe writer, Tony Massarotti:

Here's a prediction: By the time this is over, win or lose, the Red Sox effectively will have made Mark Teixeira the largest contract offer in the history of your storied franchise.

Preposterous, you say? Clearly, you have not been paying attention. Since the Red Sox changed ownership, management, and philosophies early in 2002, the new owners and operators of the Red Sox have stopped at virtually nothing to acquire those things they have coveted most. When the best of the rest were bidding $35 million-$40 million to acquire the rights to Daisuke Matsuzaka, the Red Sox bid $51.11 million. When the rest of the world wondered why J.D. Drew opted out of his contract in Los Angeles, the Red Sox dropped $70 million in Drew's lap. And knowing what we know now, nothing might have been more aggressive than the $36 million the Sox paid for Julio Lugo.

The point is this:

When the Sox want something enough, they make sure they get it.

[...]

In the case of Teixeira, the parameters have been in place for quite some time. Roughly 18 months ago, before being dealt by the Texas Rangers, Teixeira turned down an eight-year, $144 million offer that translated into $18 million per season. At the time, Teixeira was still a season and a half short of free agency. Teixeira's resume has only grown since then, which likely places Teixeira's current value between $20-$25 million per season over the next six to eight years at a minimum.

Know what that means? It means that in order to sign him, someone must pay $150-$200 million over at least the next six or eight seasons. On the shorter end of that, Teixeira easily will eclipse the annual $20 million salary earned by Ramirez during his productive and somewhat tumultuous time in Boston. On the longer end, Teixeira could end up with a package approaching $200 million, $40 million more than the $160 million deal Ramirez acquired during the winter of 2000-01.

I can't even imagine what the Red Sox lineup would look like with Teixeira anchoring the middle. Undoubtedly, the Sox would have a player capable of hitting in the No. 3 spot forced to hit No. 7 -- Jason Bay? Kevin Youkilis? JD Drew? Any one of those guys could hit No. 3 for most teams...

Coco Crisp traded to Royals for Ramon Ramirez

2008-11-19T15:28:05Z

From Rotoworld:

Sports Radio 810 WHB in Kansas City reports that the Red Sox have traded Coco Crisp to the Royals in exchange for Ramon Ramirez.
Former Royals outfielder Brian McRae broke the story, but we're still waiting to see the move confirmed by other sources. Ramirez had an excellent rookie year for the Rockies in 2006 before struggling in 2007, but bounced back following a trade to the Royals last season, posting a 2.64 ERA and 70/31 K/BB ratio in 71 2/3 innings. Dealing for Crisp would leave the Royals with a very crowded outfield and could indicate that the team is on the verge of dealing Mark Teahen or David DeJesus.

Red Sox 'fully engaged' on signing AJ Burnett

2008-11-19T06:16:39Z

Well, it looks like the Red Sox have increased their interest in AJ Burnett:

The Red Sox's pursuit of Burnett complicates the Yankees' plans. A source close to Burnett said that a half-dozen teams are in contention for his services: the Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Braves, Phillies and Orioles. The Red Sox, the source said, have significantly increased their involvement in the pitcher in the past 36 hours and are now "fully engaged."

We've talked about it all offseason: he's going to cost a lot of money and he's going to give you one of two things -- a great season or an injury-filled one. If he has the same season as he did in 2008, the Red Sox would undoubtably have the best rotation in Major League Baseball.

With that said, will the Red Sox sign Burnett?

Poll

Will the Red Sox sign AJ Burnett?

Yes

63 votes

No

129 votes

192 votes | Poll has closed

Dustin Pedroia wins AL MVP

2008-11-18T19:09:23Z

It's official: Dustin Pedroia is the the 2008 American League MVP!

Just call him Mr. November. Or better yet, refer to Dustin Pedroia as the Most Valuable Player of the American League.

The second baseman of the Boston Red Sox continued his rapid burst into the national spotlight on Tuesday, when he was recognized with that impressive honor.

Though most pundits expected the race for MVP to be agonizingly close, Pedroia won in comfortable fashion, outdistancing a solid field that included, among others, Red Sox first baseman Kevin Youkilis, Twins first baseman Justin Morneau, Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton and Angels closer Francisco Rodriguez.

MLB.COM

This is the happiest day of my life ... I swear.

Who am I?

2008-11-18T09:07:31Z

1. I pitch for the Boston Red Sox.

2. I have been considered a potential ace for a number of years. There are many who are reluctant to give me the "ace" label now.

3. According to Fangraphs.com's numbers, I was 6th among qualified ML starters in Fielding Independent Pitching this past season, behind only Tim Lincecum, Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, Dan Haren, and Roy Halladay.

4. I was 3rd among qualified ML starters in K/BB behind Roy Halladay and Dan Haren. I lowered my walk rate and upped my K-rate from my 2007 numbers. I, of course, led my own team in both categories.

5. Out of my three seasons with the Red Sox, there are many who would say that I only pitched well for one.

6. Only Tim Wakefield, among my teammates, had a better WHIP than I did this season. I was 7th in the AL in this category.

7. I am quick to take the blame for losses and to give credit to others when I win.

8. I am definitely a better pitcher than the still good pitcher who led my team in wins this season.

Who am I? (Answer within)

via i.a.cnn.net

Surprised?

Pujols wins NL MVP

2008-11-18T00:43:27Z

Just like the voters of SBNation predicted, Albert Pujols was named NL MVP today:

Pujols won despite the Cardinals finishing in fourth place, the lowest spot for an NL MVP winner since Andre Dawson and Chicago Cubs wound up sixth in 1987. Howard led the majors in home runs and RBIs for the World Series champs.

[...]

Pujols hit .357 with 37 home runs and 116 RBIs while playing with a sore right elbow that required surgery. Howard hit 48 homers with 146 RBIs for the Phillies.

Voting was completed before the playoffs began.

"I'm happy I didn't have to make that decision," Pujols said on a conference call from his St. Louis home. "What you do for your team. The players who take their teams to the playoffs should have some consideration."

Thinking about Theo's comments

2008-11-17T23:19:54Z

Recently, Theo has said that he wants the Sox to be average at least in every position. He also said that, the Sox can choose to be above average, or even elite (his word) in some positions. This is a good philosophy to have, of course.

Looking at the reality of Teixeira coming to Boston, or lack therof, the Red Sox could and should be players in other positions to upgrade offensively.

What are some positions that the Red Sox could upgrade at, to make a difference? Shortstop, catcher and possibly third base comes to mind.

This is pure speculation, but what if the Sox were able to add a better shortstop?Could JJ Hardy become available from the Brewers? Suddenly, one of the Red Sox' weaknesses becomes a strength and we upgrade from an average Lowrie, to an elite Hardy.

I'm unaware if Doug Melvin wants to deal his young shortstop, but if so, the Sox should look to upgrade.

Hardy would command some very nice prospects. Would a package of Lowrie, Buccholz/ Masterson, and Bowden get the job done?

Another position the Red Sox will most likely become average/ above average at is Catcher. Varitek should be better next year, but it is not a guaruntee. A trade for one of Texas' young catchers would push the Sox to be at least average at catcher, a position, where the Sox were well-below average last year.

The Red Sox will look into the Teixeira sweepstakes, but in the end the Mike Lowell situation will be the end to that dream. If the Sox were able to acquire Hardy, it would continue the Epstein philosophy of adding young and talented players.

Back in May, when the Brewers visited the Sox, it looked like Hardy would be a perfect fit for Fenway as he crushed two homeruns against Beckett.

A Hardy trade, would allow the Sox to sign a SP like Derek Lowe. This is mere speculation, but it would be nice for the Sox to have a better longterm shortstop other than Lowrie.

Pedroia 2B (until Ellsbury can prove he can consistently get on base)
JJ Hardy (Usually hit #2 in Milwuakee)
David Ortiz DH
Kevin Youkils 1B
Jason Bay LF
Mike Lowell 3B
JD Drew RF
Jason Varitek/ Saltalamacchia C
Ellsbury CF

I would agree with a somewhat platoon of Varitek/ Saltalamacchia. This lineup would give us good balance and would give the Red Sox more options in free agency this year.

What do you guys think?

More Manny drama: Sox tried to suspend him before trade

2008-11-16T17:31:24Z

ESPN's Pedro Gomez has the story that the Red Sox were prepared -- and even sent letters out -- to suspend Manny Ramirez because of his unwillingness to play in July:

According to multiple sources, Boston management had drafted an official letter of suspension for Ramirez, and delivered it to him at Fenway Park at around 11 p.m. on Friday night, July 25. For the second straight game, Ramirez had refused to play that evening, and the Red Sox lost 1-0 to the rival New York Yankees in front of a boisterous and sold-out home crowd.

The letter informed Ramirez that the suspension was to go into effect the next day, Saturday, July 26. It said Ramirez was being suspended without pay for being unwilling to play. Copies of the letter were also sent to Major League Baseball, the MLB Players Association and Ramirez's agent, Scott Boras

[...]

Within two hours after Ramirez received the letter of suspension, the Red Sox received two calls, according to sources. The first call was from one of Ramirez's teammates. He told a member of Boston's front office that Ramirez would play in Saturday afternoon's game against the Yankees. Within minutes, the second call came in from Ramirez himself, who confirmed that he would be available for Saturday's game.

When will this saga end? Yes, Manny Ramirez was a slug for a good chunk of his Red Sox career. Maybe he should have been suspended a long time ago, but I'm just happy we don't have to deal with him anymore. Manny will go down as one of the greatest Red Sox ever because of what he did with his bat, but it's time for the Red Sox to cut whatever ties they have left with the dysfunctional slugger.

Sox trade Lugo for Dontrelle Willis?

2008-11-16T17:15:32Z

The Globe's Nick Cafardo writes the Red Sox could trade Julio Lugo to the Tigers for a pitcher like Dontrelle Willis:

Detroit - The front office got the word late last week that it could keep the payroll at about $134 million, same as last season, which means they can sign a cheap free agent (Darren Oliver, Hoffman) or two. A far cry from last season, when they went all out and had nothing to show for it. They're also contemplating a deal with Boston to send either Nate Robertson or Dontrelle Willis for Lugo, but some money issues must be resolved.

Trading Lugo has always made sense to me, whether it's for a couple of nicely crafted bats or a bushell of baseballs. But for Dontrelle Willis? Eww. Gross.

Look at Willis' stats last season, in limited action for the Tigers: 24.0 IP, 35 BB, 18 SO with a 9.38 ERA. That's 35 walks in 24 innings! Holy crap! He really is the pitching-version of Lugo!

Robertson -- also bad, but pitched more -- could be a "Willis-lite." Seven wins, 11 losses last season with a 6.35 ERA in 168 innings pitched. Basically, it comes down to how much crap do the Red Sox want to carry on their back next season.

Am I crazy to think that this isn't even worth it? I honestly believe Lugo is more valuable than either Willis or Robertson. At least Lugo can give us speed. If he can't do anything else, he's fast. Check -- he already has more to offer than Willis or Robertson right there.

Poll

Should the Red Sox trade Julio Lugo for Dontrelle Willis or Nate Robertson?

Yes, Willis

260 votes

Yes, Robertson

73 votes

No

101 votes

434 votes | Poll has closed

OTM Top 20 Prospects In Review: #11-15.

2008-11-15T07:06:18Z

...plugging right along.

16-20.

15. Michael Almanzar, IF

2008 Numbers: R, 23 G 99 PA .348/.414/.472 6 2B 1 3B 1 HR 3 SB (3 CS)

A, 35 G 147 PA .207/.238/.314 5 2B 2 3B 2 HR 0 SB (1 CS)

Almanzar is potential. That line of his in A-ball doesn't look too good, but this was his age 17 season. He has enough potential, talent, and athleticism that the Sox wanted to give him an extended look against tougher competition. His long-term position is ?, though he played all his defensive innings at 3B. This is a guy I expect to move up on the list. Have to keep in mind his age, because going through rookie ball like he did (smallish sample aside) at age 17 is pretty impressive, especially for someone who didn't play a lot of baseball before the Sox signed him at 16.

14. Aaron Bates, 1B

2008 Numbers: AA, 124 G 530 PA .276/.366/.420 29 2B 2 3B 11 HR

Bates will be an absolute afterthought on any 2009 prospect lists. He's 24, plays only 1B, and his only big power "year" came at Lancaster in 2007. He's not cooked, but he's probably not even an edge of the peripheral part of the FO's long-term plans at this point. He illustrates an important point about prospects and positions. If he played 3B, he'd still be, at least, interesting at this point.

13. Josh Reddick, OF

2008 Numbers: A, 14 G 58 PA .340/.397/.491 4 2B 2 3B 2 SB (1 CS)

A+, 76 G 331 PA .343/.375/.593 11 2B 8 3B 17 HR 9 SB (1 CS)

AA, 34 G 132 PA .214/.290/.436 4 2B 2 3B 6 HR 3 SB (1 CS)

Reddick is a multitalented outfielder. He's definitely destined to move up the list. His power numbers are good, especially if he makes it as a RF, and he's shown the ability to steal some bases. He makes good hard contact on the ball. The only caveat with Reddick is plate discipline. Will he be able to put up a line similar to his .309/.354/.538 career line in the minors, or will his lack of patience get in the way of his development and turn him into another Jeff Francoeur? Either way, the ability and even performance (those AA numbers don't look great, but the power itself was there, and he was still only 21) make him one of the best Sox OF prospects right now.

12. Chris Carter, 1B/LF/DH

2008 Numbers: AAA, 121 G 522 PA .300/.356/.515 25 2B 2 3B 24 HR

Carter's probably going to drop off the list, but this is good news. One, it has to do with other guys we've acquired and developed, not because he was a poor player this season. He also might be a bit old to consider a true "prospect" at this point, a la Jeff Bailey. His future was as a backup 1B/DH/COF anyway, and Chris Carter himself would tell you that you can't fight the future.

11. Oscar Tejeda, IF

2008 Numbers: A, 97 G 396 PA .261/.301/.347 18 2B 1 3B 4 HR 11 SB (5 CS)

Tejeda is projection and potential at this point. His performance isn't eye-popping, though he's 18 so he can get a bit of a pass there at the A-level. It's fair to say that he's full of promise, but we've yet to see a lot of translation of that promise. Played SS and 3B in A-ball this year, though his bat will fit a lot better as a SS or 2B given what we've seen thusfar. He'll probably drop a few spots.

Summary:

Better than the last one. Reddick's stock is rising, and Tejeda and Almanzar have tons of untapped potential. Bates might not even be marginal at this point. Carter won't see his stock plummet, but he's 26 and will make room for younger and more talented players on this list.

Thanks to Soxprospects.com and B-R as always.

Poll

Who's more likely to be pushing for a starting position on the Sox in 4-6 years?

Michael Almanzar

43 votes

Oscar Tejeda

25 votes

68 votes | Poll has closed

Over the Monster

Sox officially sign Junichi Tazawa

Red Sox sign Dustin Pedroia to Extension

Masterson: Sell High?

What Masterson move would you make?

Catching Prospects

Who do you like as the 2009 Red Sox catcher?

Hot Stove Update, 11/25: Lowell

Sox make 1-year offer to Varitek

Hot Stove Update, 11/23: Teixeira, Varitek

Brian Schneider a good fit for the Red Sox?

Top 10 Red Sox Moments of the Year -- suggestion box!

How Much is Mark Teixeira Worth?

What is fair value to sign Mark Teixeira?

$10-14 million per year and a monthly free T-Pass.

$15-18 million per year.

$19-21 million per year.

$22-25 million per year.

>$26 million per year. Scott Boras needs a new jet.

$30,000 per year, with one week vacation, five sick days, and X-Mas and Thanksgiving off. If it's good enough for me, it's good enough for him.

Tony Mazz: Sox will break the bank for Mark Teixeira

Coco Crisp traded to Royals for Ramon Ramirez

Red Sox 'fully engaged' on signing AJ Burnett

Will the Red Sox sign AJ Burnett?

Yes

No

Dustin Pedroia wins AL MVP

Who am I?

Pujols wins NL MVP

Thinking about Theo's comments

More Manny drama: Sox tried to suspend him before trade

Sox trade Lugo for Dontrelle Willis?

Should the Red Sox trade Julio Lugo for Dontrelle Willis or Nate Robertson?

Yes, Willis

Yes, Robertson

No

OTM Top 20 Prospects In Review: #11-15.

Who's more likely to be pushing for a starting position on the Sox in 4-6 years?

Michael Almanzar

Oscar Tejeda